Looks like it’s a rolling collapse in the North, Ukraine advancing too fast and with Russia unable to form a defensive live to stabilise the situation.
Assuming this continues and the bulk of the Northern Luhansk area is retaken, what are Ukraines next moves?
“Armchair General” time 😉
Roll up the remainder of forces north of the Dnipro river and retake Kherson.
Move these forces round to Zaporisia and strike down to Melitopol, severing the Russian territory in two. Destroy Kerch bridge. The Russians in Kherson are cut off from resupply.
Strike down to Mariupol splitting the Russian territory into three. All Russians west of Mariupol are now cut of from resupply.
Then squeeze.
You make that sound a lot simpler than I think it might be!
Ooh Dr Martin looks a good bloke to follow.
If that Dr Martin is right is going to be an absolute unmitigated disaster for Russia and Putin.
I'm guessing the inference is this will happen this year too?
I’m guessing the inference is this will happen this year too?
That would need a total Russian collapse.
I heard on the radio this morning that the weather is changing and the Ukrainians were struggling in mud, this will only get worse.
I’m guessing the inference is this will happen this year too?
Seems a few folk suggesting that the combination of low moral, low supply of basics, collapse of lines and command, bad weather incoming, cold nights and everything may be adding up to a near total collapse over the next few weeks...
Mike Martin has generally tended to be right, although some of his predictions take longer to come to pass than others.
I think so, Russian air support is severely lacking as is coordination between artillery/infantry/air/armour which leaves any artillery that fires vulnerable to counter battery return fire,
Ukrainians meanwhile seem to have got better at that
I read a thing recently on how Russian artillery/organisation is so hierarchical with such a blame culture, it becomes completely sclerotic. So, (I hope I've got this right), artillery get a list of targets. But if the tank at location 1 has driven away, the RU fire at where it was anyway, exposing their location, because to do otherwise would mean they weren't following orders exactly and will get a bollocking. Meantime the Ukranians have now located the artillery and can act accordingly.
I heard on the radio this morning that the weather is changing and the Ukrainians were struggling in mud
Is there such a thing as mud-specialist gear? Maybe local knowledge would help the defenders?
Or maybe they are pushing hard to achieve objectives before mud season, then they will wait for it to freeze over and they can attack using winter gear whilst the Russian troops freeze.
Or maybe they are pushing hard to achieve objectives before mud season, then they will wait for it to freeze over and they can attack using winter gear whilst the Russian troops freeze.
Now where did I hear of that method before?????
Looking back to the early days of the war, when any off-road manoeuvre was an unmitigated disaster for the Russians, in the Kyiv Offensive. Recent pictures of mud/big puddles suggest we aren’t far off that again in certain areas.
Didn’t the Ukrainian deliberately flood areas as well to make it impassable,
Is there such a thing as mud-specialist gear?
What tyres for expelling Russians?
Yeas, that was just to the N of Kyiv. During the mud season (Rasputitsa?) the whole country becomes a quagmire though. All that deep fertile soil, wet and deep!
Is there such a thing as mud-specialist gear?
Perhaps we need to start a new thread.
What tank tracks for Rasputitsa mud?
EDIT - beaten to it!
There was a lot of chat about tyres back in march. Tactical trucks have auto systems for changing tyre pressure, to allow on and off-road use. Russian tyre maintenance & quality was similar to everything else we have seen. Dreadful/non existent!
Twitter feeds chattering with talk of a big collapse in the North Kherson front…..
This map purports to show the latest situation. The attacks heading SW down the West Bank of the Dnipro seem to have linked up with those heading South East. The Russ are in big trouble. Again.
This seems to be a better representation of what has happened / is happening
Reports coming in that Davidy Brid has fallen, and the RF pulling back from the whole Inhulets River front. If so that is huge.
We are looking at @25000 troops on the wrong side of the Dniepr, low on supplies, cut off and no means of escape.
Depends on who/what they want to escape from. Surrender is a good option for them, at least that way they will get food and the ability to ride out the rest of the war.
What tyres for expelling Russians?
Nobby Nikolai surely or Racing Ральф.
This map from ISW shows the situation less than two days ago. This looming defeat dwarfs anything thus far. By all accounts some of Russia's most elite units are in Northern Kherson. Shambles.
Nobby Nikolai surely or Racing Ральф.
Der Kaiser Projekt surely?
Well, this will annoy some people on Twitter
https://twitter.com/BWallaceMP/status/1577274895095906305?t=cEepJsS11WeggZPZwBCMxA&s=19
It looks like the Funkrodent map from the previous page is the accurate one! Carnage in Kherson!
I wonder what'll happen in Crimea?
House prices in Crimea drop by as much as 50% in the couple of weeks
https://news.yahoo.com/crimea-seeing-sharp-fall-real-130100548.html
Sounds obvious, but these sorts of things matter when you are trying to run a not-quite-yet-completely totalitarian regime
So you are saying that now is the time to invest in beachside property in Crimea?
So you are saying that now is the time to invest in beachside property in Crimea
Haha! No. It's a good indicator of public opinion though
Looks like the Salvation Army could defeat the Russian Army
Looks like the Salvation Army could defeat the Russian Army
Sally Ann vs Fanny Adams
Not sure which is imploding faster - Russian lines or Liz Truss's government.
Not sure which is imploding faster – Russian lines or Liz Truss’s government
The race is on!
I'd be wondering why Russian media is showing such a humiliating pair of maps.
With my optomistic head on I would hope that they are preparing for more bad news to come out.
I thought it was quite telling that Dmitry Peskov said 'It is very positive that somebody like Elon Musk is looking for a peaceful way out of this situation'. Elon Musk is suggesting that things go back to how they were before the invasion. I presume they are seriously worried about losing Crimea
EDIT: apologies he also suggested new elections in some areas so not 100% as it was before
I’d be wondering why Russian media is showing such a humiliating pair of maps.
No mention of Ukraine gains on RT, only stories of 'unification' and how the EU / global economies are being crippled by their own actions.
Why stop. The Russian Armed forces need to be persuaded back into Russia. Crimea needs un annexing, then a non militarized zone established along the border.
Might take a year, but with this weeks gains could be done this year.
Although the more towns and villages that are liberated, the smaller the Area the Russian army has to defend.
The tactics of manoeuvre across open ground, swing in to flank or surround a tpwn seems to be working. Bit like mediaeval seige warfare but speeded up alot. And without a trebuchet in sight.
Curious as to why everyone on here is so celebratory about the collapse of the Russian army. Do we seriously think Putin is just going to put his hands up and say 'fair play lads, we were beaten fair and square'? Seems to me that it will be a pyrrhic victory which could ultimately result in the entire destruction of Ukraine and quite possibly the rest of the world.
If Putin loses the war and then says "okay lads just nuke the place" do you think his generals actually would?
all it needs is one to say yes
Curious as to why everyone on here is so celebratory about the collapse of the Russian army. Do we seriously think Putin is just going to put his hands up and say ‘fair play lads, we were beaten fair and square’?
Russia invaded Ukraine without a good reason and have laid waste to much of it, which most people agree is a bad thing. The Russian army that carried out the above is starting to collapse and it could signal the start of the end.
Yes Putin has made some nuclear threats, but if the world backs down and lets him get away with whatever he wants without challenging him, where does it end? The best result for Ukraine and the world is Russia being chased out of Ukraine and Putin being removed from power for his failures in Ukraine.
Curious as to why everyone on here is so celebratory about the collapse of the Russian army. Do we seriously think Putin is just going to put his hands up and say ‘fair play lads, we were beaten fair and square’? Seems to me that it will be a pyrrhic victory which could ultimately result in the entire destruction of Ukraine and quite possibly the rest of the world.
My hope is it will cause a coup or uprising of some kind. I think the miliary, from the individual troops on the front line through to the senior staff know the game is a bogey. I hope that they will realise that their future survival revolves around no more Pootin.
