The Dont Panic Bots seemed to get confusing
A wander through Twitter suggests a lot of retreats from the Russians.
Please let this be a real collapse of Russian ability and aggression. Bring this war to a faster close.
Reality I suspect is not as one sided. 🙁
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1567180056958468098
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1567180077665755137
Interesting thread on the unreliability of North Korean munitions.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1567227193067028481
crush of sanctions
Something that I hadn't realised is that Russian nickel and aluminium imports by the US and EU have increased in the period March-June 2022 compared to 2021.
The US has imported 70% more nickel, the EU 22% more
The US has imported 21% more aluminium, the EU 13% more; the EU was the biggest importer of Russian unwrought aluminium during this period and of course prices went up on the declaration of war. A single swallow doesn't make a spring, but Europeans certainly make cars
But on the other side of the sanctions equation is Russia's need for western tech and materiel of Russian-origin, hence the talk of buying from N Korea
UKR is warning that Russia has a list of western electronic tech of all sorts, including chips, transistors, transformers, etc and to keep sanctions tight. The concern is that they could be bought through a willing third-party
A wander through Twitter suggests a lot of retreats from the Russians
As previously observed, if every Twitter announcement of Russian retreat was accompanied by one step backwards, there’d be dancing in the streets of Vladivostok by now. Hopefully this time it’s different, but we’ll see.
Leaving the gas turned off until we give in
That will only work if we are dumb enough to refuse to consider quick and cheap alternatives like onshore wind and solar. Oh. Hang on …
Something that I hadn’t realised is that Russian nickel and aluminium imports by the US and EU have increased in the period March-June 2022 compared to 2021.
The US has imported 70% more nickel, the EU 22% more
Percentages alone don't tell you much. For example, if the U.S. imported 10 kg of nickel last year and 17 kg this year, that would be a 70% increase. Big question is what is the dollar value of the transactions, and what is that as a percentage of Russia's economy. If Russia is forced to sell products cheap, they might export a greater quantity but make much less money out of it. You really need to look at the overall state of the economy, not just specific sectors.
That will only work if we are dumb enough to refuse to consider quick and cheap alternatives like onshore wind and solar. Oh. Hang on …
Haha!
Percentages alone don’t tell you much
The EU and US imports of Russian aluminium and nickel between March and June alone were $1.9bn
I don't think that anyone in the west has enough detail to understand that as a % of the Russian economy ATM
I don’t think that anyone in the west has enough detail to understand that as a % of the Russian economy ATM
Judging by what a few news articles are suggesting, I reckon it represents most of their income.
India seems to be throwing them a few rupees as well.
Some small but significant advances by UA in the Kharkiv region.
Not really a fan of posting images of the military, but theres just something about this photo
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The Guardian also reporting some gains in the Kharkiv region
I'd love it if the whole Kherson offensive was just a trick!
I’d love it if the whole Kherson offensive was just a trick!
It's certainly starting to look like UKr telegraphing their supposed intentions in Kherson have led the Russians to leave Kharkiv and surrounds exposed. Lots of reports of significant UKr gains in the area.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1567535383600140289
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1567529453835747329
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1567470552494784515
It’s certainly starting to look like UKr telegraphing their supposed intentions in Kherson have led the Russians to leave Kharkiv and surrounds exposed. Lots of reports of significant UKr gains in the area
Fingers crossed it leads to significant gains!!
This guy is with the BBC World Monitoring service
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1567484971559911429?t=WWsC3te-qlOitluvdKTnuQ&s=19
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1567527418704891905?t=gRFvDsFYhawrVx7zrh0PLg&s=09
This tweet is from a guy who is with the BBC World Monitoring Service.
The guy in the photo is a prominent TV presenter in Russia
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1567527418704891905?t=gRFvDsFYhawrVx7zrh0PLg&s=09
I had to look up who he was https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Solovyov_(TV_presenter)
Ah, you beat me to it!
I’ve seen a few of his rants on YouTube- they’re absolutely mental 😵💫
Over on reddit there're lots of vids of Russian POWs, captured or abandoned positions and equipment around Kharkiv.
Hopefully the Ukr can kick the crap out of the Russians and take key routes and positions before winter sets in.
This is a fairly plausible line of thought on the Ukrainians' objectives. Basically, cut the Russian's rail lines and force them to retreat north.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1567467511284645889
Slightly more restrained view from General Valerii Zaluzhnyi and Lieutenant General Mykhailo Zabrodskyi. They consider that war will continue into 2023, but equally that's something that they have to plan for and may be overly-pessimistic
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3566365-general-staff-not-rule-out-continuation-of-hostilities-in-2023.html
You know, war translated might not be impartial
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1567650405919690755?t=U1gLNFwk8RHoZ4too0y4fQ&s=19
if this I'd true I cannot see putin just shrugging his shoulders and watching his army rout. he doesn't have many cards left to play
of course our media is very one sided. I chuckled when I read a story about Iranian drones being supplied to Russia. "many of which have mechanical faults". I mean how on earth does the reporter know that? constant belittling of anything that maybe in Russians favour makes me question the news we are being fed
constant belittling of anything that maybe in Russians favour makes me question the news we are being fed
Yep, you definitely have to try to peer through the bullshit
constant belittling of anything that maybe in Russians favour makes me question the news we are being fed
Well, think about it like this. Russia tried to portray itself as a superpower able to challenge the U.S. After 6 months fighting a much smaller neighbouring country, the Russian army is exhausted and the vaunted Russian arms industry is forced to import drones from Iran and ammunition from North Korea. It doesn't really matter whether the Iranian drones are junk or not, just the fact that Russia has to turn to those countries is humiliating for them. Most humiliating thing is that China has obviously refused to supply them.
It's difficult to know what's happening on the ground, whether the Ukrainian advances are the beginning of a larger Russian collapse or just some local gains that won't have a huge strategic impact. In a few weeks we'll know more. What we can say, however, is that the Russian army does seem to be exhausted and has lost the initiative. Difficult to see anything but bad news for Russia this week.
I don't think China _can_ sell to them. Iran and NK are both effectively pariah states and so DGAS, but China still has a lot to lose, so selling to Russia might not be in their best interests. I'd be willing to bet they would sell if they could, for both the money and the influence they would get over Russia for it.
They could still sell via NK if they wanted to; China's about the only place that trades with them still.
constant belittling of anything that maybe in Russians favour makes me question the news we are being fed
To a degree you just need to adjust what your being fed.
That post from War Translated was adjacent to one about 3 million dead German POWs killed after 1945 in US concentration camps. Bit of a silly example but you get the idea.
China still has a lot to lose, so selling to Russia might not be in their best interests.
Exactly. Russia is not a superpower or Great Power, it has little to offer. China sees much more benefit in staying on workable terms with the West than with Russia. Not good news for Russia at all.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/
The soldiers said they lacked the artillery needed to dislodge Russia’s entrenched forces and described a yawning technology gap with their better-equipped adversaries. The interviews provided some of the first direct accounts of a push to retake captured territory that is so sensitive, Ukrainian military commanders have barred reporters from visiting the front lines.
Theres always the chance this is west aimed Pysops to encourage equipment supply
Russia tried to portray itself as a superpower able to challenge the U.S. After 6 months fighting a much smaller neighbouring country, the Russian army is exhausted and the vaunted Russian arms industry is forced to import
At the start of the war, it was noted that the Russians weren't using their front line combat aircraft. Given how much difference air superiority makes, there has to be a good reason. They are also using a lot of troops from outlying areas and have no general mobilisation. There's a bias in Western reporting towards saying how bad the Russians are, because that's what people (including me) want to read. Putin is certainly ruthless enough to send the B team and watch them get slaughtered, while holding back the A team and the proper kit in case Russia itself is threatened. I assume Western intelligence services have looked at this possibility but I haven't seen it reported.
Putin is certainly ruthless enough to send the B team and watch them get slaughtered, while holding back the A team and the proper kit in case Russia itself is threatened. I assume Western intelligence services have looked at this possibility but I haven’t seen it reported.
Hasn't this been done to death?
I don't think they had an A team, they may of on paper but the reality was completely different.
They sent T64's as reinforcements. Now these may of been used as "secondary" forces behind the frontlines but if you need to send 50 year old tanks then you have problems.
Putin is certainly ruthless enough to send the B team and watch them get slaughtered, while holding back the A team
He bet everything on the invasion, they sent the A team, it just wasn't very good. At the start, Russia assumed Ukraine would just capitulate and it'd be over in a few days so they just weren't prepared logistically for a real war and their army got routed in the north. They haven't been able to recover from that and their logistical problems have left them vulnerable in multiple areas.
At the start of the war, it was noted that the Russians weren’t using their front line combat aircraft. Given how much difference air superiority makes, there has to be a good reason.
Russia tried to use its air force, but Ukraine had dispersed its anti-aircraft defenses so Russian aircraft were very vulnerable, Russia did lose quite a few aircraft. Russia seems to have very limited stocks of precision weapons, so air support missions have to mostly use unguided weapons. Aircraft flying low and slow are quite vulnerable to ground fire. Sending in a $50 million dollar aircraft to do what artillery can do much cheaper makes no sense. The Russian air force doesn't seem to be any more effective than its army.
So, now Russia is desperately trying to use its air force to repel the Ukrainian offensive but targeting intel is the key to using it effectively.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1567784092086804482
Putin is certainly ruthless enough to send the B team and watch them get slaughtered,
They sent their A-team but didn't prepare or plan for the resistance they faced, sent them into Ukraine with parade uniforms rather than sufficient ammo and fuel.
As a result of these failures at the top a huge chunk of their best troops have been wiped out. The VDV Airbourne troops that got butchered at Hostomel for instance. Even in the last few days a detachment of Chechen Rosvardia, who you'd definitely consider at the 'A-Team' were surrounded in Kherson Oblast and mortared into oblivion. I've seen videos Ukrainians took of the aftermath and I am not posting them here.
The supply of large numbers of Stingers and other western MANPADS has also largely neutralized Russia's Air superiority, against all odds and predictions, the Ukrainian Airforce not only still exists but is still flying sorties, balls like space hoppers, the lot of 'em.
I'm more chipper about Ukraine's chances of pushing the Russians back to at least the Jan 2022 lines now than I have been since the invasion, they're doing incredible things right now, super impressive. If they can sustain it the chances of a full or partial Russian collapse increase daily.
In the Kherson region, they are half way to Kupyansk, which Russias main logistics hub for the area.If they can take it, or cut it of, the entire Izium bridgehead will be in jeopardy.
Wow, Russian forces collapsed in the face of 15 tanks.
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1567702370406072321
Even the VDV was little more than riot police.
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1499389194388578304?s=20&t=y9OtUdPs3JW0xZjyvh46Hw
The Russian army is little more than conscripts, poorly paid enlisted men and officers.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1565080952203841538?s=20&t=1-sHm6fWnd4KNZX9gTWAaw
the weapons and systems have been neglected (before Ukraine) by corruption.
All the stuff we know about Putins regime and theft, why did we ever think they had a decent army?
