why did we ever think they had a decent army?
Partly a hangover from the USSR days.. when they did.
Partly the fact they consistently published very high spending and troop numbers, not USA numbers but still considerable.
Partly a steady stream of propaganda that lacked any convenient real world case studies to dispel it... until now of course.
Well, one thing is that, on paper, they appeared to be reasonably well equipped. They modernized quite a lot over the last 20 years and it's probably better to overestimate an opponent than underestimate them. Thing is that Ukraine started this war using ex-Soviet gear that was older then the Russians, but they used it effectively. The utterly woeful performance of the Russian military really did exceed what anyone could have predicted.
One thing that may have been a big contributor was that the Russian soldiers weren't told they were going into combat until a few hours before the invasion started. That was so that the plans could be kept secret (even though the U.S. had already publicized them), only the most senior officers knew. The soldiers and field officers were just told they were going on exercises so they didn't realize that they had to prepare for real combat, they just thought they'd have to sit around and get drunk and send in some photo reports of tanks doing cool stuff. So, when they turned up in Ukraine and the Ukrainians started shooting at them, they just didn't know what to do. Good chance that if the Russian army had been give a few months to properly prepare for combat, they would have performed better. Doesn't mean they would have been ready to take on NATO, but surely they wouldn't have been as woeful as they have been.
DrJ
Free MemberAs previously observed, if every Twitter announcement of Russian retreat was accompanied by one step backwards, there’d be dancing in the streets of Vladivostok by now. Hopefully this time it’s different, but we’ll see.
I think the Ukrainians are leaving Vladivostok for later, this week they're just liberating Ukrainian territory.
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1567874211191918592
whats happened to the beebs coverage of the ukraine war? It barely has anything thats current any more.
Everything is pointing to major UAF success in the NE (Kharkiv oblast). The Russian lines appear to have been paper thin and inability to coordinate artillery against a fast moving opponent is making for big inroads.
whats happened to the beebs coverage of the ukraine war? It barely has anything thats current any more.
To be fair current events are fast moving and a lot of the content from Twitter etc is unverified or biased to one side or the other. There simply aren't accredited war correspondents on all fronts. They have to get some kind of verification from trusted sources before going to press.
whats happened to the beebs coverage of the ukraine war? It barely has anything thats current any more.
Apart from 4 posts yesterday?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60525350
IMO, a lot of mainstream press are (rightly) cautious about posting until it is a) official and b) not graphic, over excited etc..
This could be an absolutely disastrous day for the RF. It sounds like their artillery was caught hopping & was overrun. Now they are calling in air support. Every UAF unit has stingers, plus they have all sorts of bigger Anti Air systems both Soviet & western. Russia could lose a LOT of jets today.
"whats happened to the beebs coverage of the ukraine war? It barely has anything thats current any more."
As I understand it, the Ukranian govt has quite sensibly issued a news blackout for the duration of the Kherson offensive.
So the information coming out is quite limited.
Russia could lose a LOT of jets today.
I'm guessing that the medical centers on the airbases are seeing a surge in sinus complaints and the like from aircrews, inclinata plumbum.
BBC Sounds still doing the Ukrainecast 3 days a week too.
The Kharkiv offensive seems to actually gaining momentum, new reports coming in all the time but The Ukrainians have already covered roughly half the distance from where the front stood pre-offensive and the key railway junction of Kupyansk through which the majority of Russias supplies to the front currently passes.
Obviously, fog of war, propaganda and and all that but if they can take that junction it will be a huge shift in the balance of power in their favor and currently it looks like it's exactly what's on the cards.
All those Russian BTG's around Kherson won't be of much if they run out of fuel, ammo and even food.
Edit: Just seen a report that the Ukr forces are now less than 10KM from Kupyansk, if true then... crikey!
Edit: Just seen a report that the Ukr forces are now less than 10KM from Kupyansk, if true then… crikey
Omg hope so!!!!
Russian troops apparently abandoned the place
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1567904298029260800?t=3plVABl_wV_wamFW5RxfRA&s=19
Could be a lot of Russian POWs soon
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1567884527724290049?t=RH8L3H7dJ98296vMYtQZeg&s=19
Edit: Just seen a report that the Ukr forces are now less than 10KM from Kupyansk, if true then… crikey!
Sounds like they've picked a real weak spot in the defenses. Great progress if they can hold it on and then expand..
Interesting in that the area backs on to the 2 big lakes, east and south of kharkiv, seems to be strategy to push against these natural features in the south and north. Will be very interesting if they can hold and then ultimately push beyond, particular down the line if they could push through that natural bottle neck between the 2 lakes towards the belgorod supply lines. See how it develops over the month in to next. but could see my negativity turn to positivity if they do. Sounds like some very interesting developments anyhow.
There's some crazy footage coming out now of Ukranians storming enemy positions in Humvees with Browning Heavy MG's blazing, proper balls to the wall stuff, incredible bravery but if they want to turn the retreat into a rout that kind of speed and aggression will be required, prevent their opponents from regrouping and digging in.
Unlike the much more cautious approach in the South designed too minimise Ukr casualties, the Kharkiv operation seems to be going right for the jugular, a riskier approach but wow, they're making it work so far, I just hope they can keep it up.
Help me troll this idiot
https://twitter.com/johncardillo/status/1567866740373164033?t=wGFM07jnX3SgBU7WyFOruQ&s=19
Easy to get carried away, but I imagine Russian troops in the region are getting very nervous
https://twitter.com/HickPhilistine/status/1567718440257060864?s=19
Remember all these Telegram posts are visible to Russian Social Media. This s@@t is getting very real.
hatter
Full MemberThe Kharkiv offensive seems to actually gaining momentum, new reports coming in all the time
It seems (armchair generalling again) that that's what you'd hope for here- they've sought out an exploitable spot and driven at it, the idea isn't to make creeping gains, it's to overwhelm and get past the russian main positions and threaten softer parts. That'd be typified by initial very high intensity fighting with smallish gains, followed by very aggressive fast movement and fast gains/destruction of targets. Slow sustained hardfought gains would look good on paper but probably isn't what Ukraine is aiming for here.
joefm
Free MemberAll the stuff we know about Putins regime and theft, why did we ever think they had a decent army?
Cynical me thinks partly it was in a lot of people's interests to exaggerate the threat, in order to keep us buying weapons to fight them.
Has anyone thought of saying to Putin "Mr. President, the Ukrainians are coming. Look out of the window"?
In fairness a lot of those weapons are being used to fight the Russians, albeit by the Ukrainian Army.
Id be more worried about a cornered Jackel .. Facing a push of this size where is Putins head at .. And a close Ally in a state of mourning. Id be looking very closely at the goings on around a certain power planet very carefully
Ukrainian penis penetrating Russian rear
https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1567935220489273345?t=xvf5tQvOaYwga5kZyfepwA&s=19
Edit: Just seen a report that the Ukr forces are now less than 10KM from Kupyansk, if true then… crikey!
Posted 3 hours ago
Reports of fighting in the Western Edge of Kupiansk already, blimey they're moving fast, absolute mad lads.
This could be the start of the collapse, I just hope Ukr are able to keep the advancing units supplied so they don't overextend and get cut off but so far this is looking like stunning progress.
The Guardian seems to be confirming the Twitter reports of massive gains have been made around Kharkiv
Obviously, the Ukrainians will be watching closely to see if the Russians are able to regroup and halt the advance. Hopefully they can't and are forced into a larger retreat.
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1567946834714263561
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1567968523913252864
Girkins latest comment couple of hours ago:
On the Kherson front, today the enemy advances in the area of the settlement. Posad-Pokrovskoye - had a tactical character of "leakage". The village is in our hands, measures are being taken to eliminate the enemy infantry groups that have broken through. South of Kharkov - so far a complete "alles kaput" of organized defense. Balakleya abandoned by our troops. Fights are going on near approaches to Kupyansk. The enemy, using mobile DRGs, makes deep raids behind the lines of our disoriented troops, causing panic with small forces and destroying rear checkpoints, intercepting roads and transport columns. Thanks to reliable communications - these groups are supported by pinpoint missile strikes, and our aviation is not able to recognize "friend or foe" in this mess - therefore, such raids by the enemy are "getting away with" so far. Our reserves are constantly moving into the area of breakthroughs.
Some interesting “on the ground” posts on this Instagram channel
https://instagram.com/guardians.of.the.north?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=
and especially from a Swedish volunteer medic
https://instagram.com/okandsoldat?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=
What I understood was that in the Kharkiv area where he now is there are professional soldiers whereas in Luhansk it was more middle aged reservists. Or maybe it was a recipe for meatballs. I can’t be sure…
(Some Google translate required)
ISW reckons Kupiansk well fall in 72 hrs
Russians trying to reinforce it
https://twitter.com/Noel_dotsol/status/1567999362294288384?s=19
https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1568132510999056385?s=19
It's amazing how much Russian bloggers give away on social media!
Russians trying to reinforce it
With what? Did they pull some more T-62s out of storage and offer convicted criminals a release from prison if they'd go to Ukraine to fight?
Odds are this isn't far from the truth, considering the importance of Kupyansk, the front to the west of it probably already had some 'A-tier' units holding it and the Ukrainians have already punched clean through them.
Any other higher quality units are probably down in Kherson and too engaged to easily be pulled back, the southern offensive is definitely doing it's job of pinning Russian assets in place whilst the Ukrainians mount an absolute thunder run in the North.
They must be pretty confident that local Russia anti-armour capacity has been degraded to almost nothing if they're happy to come screaming towards Rus positions in HumVees across open terrain in daylight with their M2's blazing.
If you look at pictures from the Northern front of the units that are doing these advances you're struck by how 'Western' they look, HumVees, western style helmets, plate carriers, no AK47's in sight, you have to suspect that these are the units that have just come back from training in Poland, The UK, Sweden etc.
Your taxes in action ladies and gentlemen.
It’s amazing how much Russian bloggers give away on social media!
Yeah, they puggled the life out of me for months tbh, but they see to give fairly accurate information on the tactical side.
Girkin, saying, according to the 'laws of the game' expecting a push in the south too, doesn't seem to think it's a feint, just 2 equal blows.
They must be pretty confident that local Russia anti-armour capacity has been degraded to almost nothing if they’re happy to come screaming towards Rus positions in HumVees across open terrain in daylight with their M2’s blazing.
This is interesting, I do wonder how much intel they are getting from occupied territory. If the mobile networks are still working what's to stop Ukranians WhatsApping pictures to the UAF all day?
This is interesting, I do wonder how much intel they are getting from occupied territory. If the mobile networks are still working what’s to stop Ukranians WhatsApping pictures to the UAF all day?
Lots! I did see a post over the last couple of days thanking the forces and the people working with them from inside occupied territory. So I'd say there's a lot going on.
And it was only the other day that the governor of Berdyansk got blown up in his car. And that's about as far inside occupied territory as you're going to get. So there are definitely a lot of partisan activities going on.
Come to think of it I also saw a WarTranslated call from a Russian soldier in Kherson complaining that it wasn't safe for the Russian armed forces to go out on patrol alone in Kherson! My heart bleeds for the poor fellow.
With what? Did they pull some more T-62s out of storage and offer convicted criminals a release from prison if they’d go to Ukraine to fight?
I don't think they've got stuff even that capable
https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1568190728886444032?t=88MXHd6P2cqUAahx6Lgh9Q&s=19
Was wondering if they'll send reinforcements, apparently there have been 30-40k volunteer reserves ready to go in moscow. You do have to expect some kinda russian push back. Find out soon enough if they amount to anything if that's true.
Along with Russia complaining at the UNSC, that the country theyve invaded is being sent the means to defend itself.
At the request of the US and Albania, the UNSC will hold an open meeting on the forced deportation of Ukrainians.
“We are concerned that the Russian authorities have adopted a simplified procedure to grant Russian citizenship to children without parental care, and that these children would be eligible for adoption by Russian families,” she said.The filtration procedures of Ukrainian adults judged as close to the Ukraine government or military have involved torture and the forcible removal and transfer to Russian penal colonies and other detention centres, Kehris said.
They must be pretty confident that local Russia anti-armour capacity has been degraded to almost nothing if they’re happy to come screaming towards Rus positions in HumVees across open terrain in daylight with their M2’s blazing.
Just a guess here, but I think the Ukrainian breakthrough started out as a probe just to see where Russia was strong. Probably the Russians were already very demoralized and just hoofed it when they saw the Ukrainians coming, which led to the Ukrainians surging through the Russian lines and a stampede by the Russians to get out of the way. Let's face it, if you were a Russian soldier, you would know damn well that the war was not going to plan. Would you fight to the death for a lost cause like that?
Not unless the political officers were behind me and I could not arrange an accident for them.
My heart bleeds for the poor fellow.
Well to be fair it's probably not his first choice of how to spend his afternoons.
I read somewhere that America is now quietly supplying advanced GPS guided munitions for the big 155mm howitzers the Ukrainians are using. They’re use of drones for target tracking and aiming is already pretty devastating, this additional accuracy could make a big difference.
Ukraine has already degraded bridges in, I think, the Donetsk area to the point that Russia is having to rely on ferrying supplies across.
Which isn’t vulnerable at all…
On a slightly lighter note, I liked this little example of Ukrainian wry humour:
