MegaSack DRAW - This year's winner is user - rgwb
We will be in touch
G19. Right now.
Do it publicly, unanimously and immediately.
Russians taking it badly
Stunning propaganda coup from Zelensky.
I'm just trying to see if Surging Lavatory's plane shows up on Ads-B or FlightRadar. He's on his way home apparently.
Edit: https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=157717
RA 96023 Special Flight Detachment.
Edit: tracking now switched off and heading north towards China.
Nice plane, be a shame if something happened to it
Most of those artillery rounds, especially Russian, do absolutely nothing, 🤷♂️
Stunning propaganda coup from Zelensky.
The propaganda is for the west only while in the east they just see it differently in an opposite way.
Social media in the SE Asia are laughing at the language used by PM toward Russia and they also accuse of US intention to create conflict in the region.
However, the praise is given to the language used by the Indonesia President calling for peace on both sides. SE Asia could be the "king maker" in future.
Thanks for reminding me why I'd never want to live there.
Isn't that because there is a wider admiration for autocratic 'strong men' in SE Asia?
Not that I think Putin is a strong man, he's a coward who's terrified to leave the Kremlin whilst Zelensky visits the front line and happily mixes with troops and civilians.
Strong men don’t hide in their bunkers 🤷♂️
However, the praise is given to the language used by the Indonesia President calling for peace on both sides. SE Asia could be the “king maker” in future.
Highly doubtful (to put it mildly) as they have little or no political, economic or geographical influence and leverage with either party.
If you look at president Erdogan of Turkey however...
I thought Russia was running out of missles months ago.
Iran supplied approx 100 missiles to Russia a few days ago,
Reported to have an accuracy of 10miles 🤦🏻♂️
Some of those accurate Russian missiles have landed in a NATO country and killed civilians. Article 5? I know that won't happen and would be OTT for what was probably incompetence and/or rubbish kit, but the escalation potential is there.
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1592583114899193856?s=20&t=ncNuYDw5-N_XClGWut2HYw
On missile would be an accidental act. 2 is deliberate assuming they where long range.
There's a tweet further down which refers to an explosion in a grain drying room. Nothing about missiles.
This needs to be confirmed as being caused by errant missiles before I'm going to comment.
I seriously hope this is just people jumping to conclusions. russia is loosing without the need to escalate
There’s a tweet further down which refers to an explosion in a grain drying room. Nothing about missiles.
.
This needs to be confirmed as being caused by errant missiles before I’m going to comment.
Agreed. Apols for jumping the gun, this definitely falls into the 'unconfirmed' category for the time being.
Ukraine has been under long range attack all day
This is from https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-premier-calls-urgent-meeting-national-security-committee-2022-11-15/
No comments yet but all the eyes in sky will know.
Poland was always at risk. They’ve been saying so all year. Same for Moldova and Lithuania. Power cuts and infrastructure being hit not limited to Ukraine today… how much is “carelessness”, and how much is a deliberate threat…!? Well, that lack of clarity is how Russia has been operating for decades now.
That's a missile from the air, hence the crater and trailer still in the vicinity.
Seems to be possible that parts of an S300 air defence missile were found at the scene. unfortunately it might be Ukrainian. They've been under massive Russian missile bombardment all day, they'll have chucked a lot of ordnance at all the incoming. Some of it may have gone stray. TBC obvs.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1592603808634638336?s=20&t=RcYtCrxRRirCH28nuyQ0Mg
Well contrary to the earlier tweet I mentioned I don't suppose the Polish Committee on National Security and Defense Issues would be convening to discuss a grain dust explosion.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1592594384708517890
BUT... if it is an S300 it could be Russian one being "repurposed" for ground attack or a Ukranian one being used in an anti missile function.
Does this mean we get a 4 minute warning in the morning?
Does this mean we get a 4 minute warning in the morning?
I think our warning system got outsourced to the track and trace lot.
So expect a phone call a few hours after you are a heap of radioactive ash.
This really isn’t a funny situation to joke about.
I don't think it's a situation to get too alarmist about either.
Using some rough distances from Google maps, Lviv is 45 miles from the Polish border, crash site is 15 miles into Poland and 60+ miles north of Lviv.
That's quite a lot of wrong direction and distance for something fired as an interception against incoming from Belarus or Russia.
How far past target would a couple of missiles fly if damaged, against gravity?
I thought Russia was running out of missles months ago.
Probably some WWII missles ...
Thanks for reminding me why I’d never want to live there.
Their cultures/belief systems are not suitable for many tbh. No, don't go there.
Isn’t that because there is a wider admiration for autocratic ‘strong men’ in SE Asia?
Yes, but not always but in M'sia we have the biggest crook in the world. Fact! Beat any country in the world hands down.
Not that I think Putin is a strong man, he’s a coward who’s terrified to leave the Kremlin whilst Zelensky visits the front line and happily mixes with troops and civilians.
I don't think you see any of the Presidents/PMs in a war zone to be fair.
Strong men don’t hide in their bunkers
Haven't you seen the US President motorcade? They don't even trust the people of the country he visited to offer him protection.
Highly doubtful (to put it mildly) as they have little or no political, economic or geographical influence and leverage with either party.
Let's hope that is true but the world is getting smaller.
If you look at president Erdogan of Turkey however…
He will not be there forever.
From Haaretz:
Explosion Kills Two in Poland Near Ukraine Border, Russian Missiles Suspected
An American official told the Associated Press that a Russian missile intended for Ukraine was behind the blast in the NATO member-state, but the Pentagon responded that it could not confirm the reports. The Russian Defense Ministry denied responsibility for the strike, calling it a 'deliberate provocation' by Poland
Well, the Russians would say that, wouldn’t they, it’s their boilerplate default response.
I don’t think it’s a situation to get too alarmist about either.
I seem to remember something about these kind of accidents happening posted somewhere on this thread via a link that the US/nato wouldnt look to take any action on this sort of thing. Accidents will happen is the general thought.
So it's only the newspapers and tabloids in general bigging it up as much as possible for clcikbait stories
Well, the Russians would say that, wouldn’t they, it’s their boilerplate default response.
Many weapons were left behind by the retreating Russia military so who launching the missiles can only be a guess. Why not just use the the Russian left over missiles to get everyone involved?
Interesting to see Russia's strenuous denial rather than staying ambiguous as they normally do.
I think it's telling in that they REALLY don't want NATO directly involved in Ukraine. For obvious reasons.
For what it's worth I think it's obvious NATO shouldn't get drawn in of course. We'll possible never know who launched the missiles if it/they were S300's as both Ukraine and Russia are using them. Russia repurposing them as ground to ground missiles mind you!
We're still waiting for official comment BTW.
And no, noone is using WW2 era missiles. That'd be a truly moronic hill to argumentatively die on.
We’ll possible never know who launched the missiles if it/they were S300’s as both Ukraine and Russia are using them.
With the AWACs and other stuff hanging around I suspect they could have a pretty good guess.
Even if it was Russia unless something indicates it was deliberate, which seems unlikely, I doubt there would be a direct response beyond shipping some more weapons.
Using some rough distances from Google maps, Lviv is 45 miles from the Polish border, crash site is 15 miles into Poland and 60+ miles north of Lviv.
So you're sure Lviv was being targeted?
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1592629251161075712
So if its a SA, then theres always the possibility that it was fired to intercept a Russian missile, missed and came back down landing in Poland.
ITV categorically saying it was a Russian missile attack.
That seems way too premature to me.
I was just watching the impact of a KH107 cruise missile and the damage is huge.Its the type of thing the US has used to target isis and it turns entire houses into gravel
In the picture of damage in Poland it shows a crater and a knocked over farm trailer. The tractor puling it intact. I would have thought 410kg of high explosive from a cruise missile hitting the ground at 500mph+ would have obliterated both.
Personally I have no idea. None of the above are facts, just observations coupled with a bit of research as to what a cruise missile actually is and does. Just speculation.
Just what I thought after seeing the footage on the news dyna-ti.
Russia also uses S300 missiles (the air defence missiles people are saying this is)in a ground attack mode.
It could reach from Belarus. Much smaller warhead,
Yes, Russia is short of guided weapons so they've been using S300 anti-aircraft missiles to attack ground targets. I think they just have a simple inertial guidance system so they aren't very accurate. If anything goes wrong with the inertial guidance, they could easily wander tens of kilometers off course. Being an AA weapon, they will have a much smaller warhead than a surface -to-surface missile.
Have we seen this yet?
selkirkbear
Free Member
Poland has confirmed that it was a Russian missile
Russian made missile, yes. I'm not being a pedant, genuinely, just mean to say that it's still unclear (to us mortals) who actually launched the damned thing.
Either way it's a tragic accident* (imo) and I don't see NATO going to war over it thankfully.
*As far as it can be when launching bloody great explosives projectiles into the air, anyway.
Russian made missile, yes. I’m not being a pedant, genuinely, just mean to say that it’s still unclear (to us mortals) who actually launched the damned thing.
It would have been tracked by NATO radars. There won't be any doubt about who fired it.
NATO are not going to attack Russia for what was plausibly a failed guidance system rather than a deliberate provocation. However, it would give NATO a reason for shooting down Russian missiles over Ukrainian airspace (obviously with the permission of the Ukrainian government.) I doubt that NATO will do that, but it must be something that is on the NATO list of possible responses to Russian missiles straying into NATO territory.
It could reach from Belarus. Much smaller warhead,
It would have to have come from Belarus, as its only got a max range of 56miles.
its only got a max range of 56miles.
The max range of missiles is actually quite tricky, especially anti-aircraft ones. If they are fired at a high-altitude aircraft from ground level, most of their fuel will be used gaining altitude so their range will be short. If an air-to-air missile is fired from a supersonic aircraft at high altitude against a low-flying aircraft, the range will be increased because it has a huge energy boost from the launch aircraft. A guided missile will still keep flying on a ballistic trajectory after its fuel runs out, so the range as a guided missile will be shorter than the range as a hybrid with a ballistic trajectory following a guided phase. That's why the official range of the HIMARS systems, for example, understates how far they can actually be fired.
It must have been launched from Belarus or Kalligrad...
that's really gonna rile the Lithuanuans as well as the Poles.
What on earth are the russians thinking? are they just committing suicide?
The S300 that struck Poland was almost certainly a defective missile fired by Ukrainian forces, but is made by Russia
There are a pile of variants and range is defined by the type of target, but the longer-range versions will fly 250 miles to hit an aircraft
It's already been identified as a 5V55 from various bits, 2-300lbs warhead and up to 100 miles effective range, but will fly further
timba
Free MemberThe S300 that struck Poland was almost certainly a defective missile fired by Ukrainian forces, but is made by Russia
There are a pile of variants and range is defined by the type of target, but the longer-range versions will fly 250 miles to hit an aircraft
It’s already been identified as a 5V55 from various bits, 2-300lbs warhead and up to 100 miles effective range, but will fly further
yeah.. pull the other one.
I seem to remember something about these kind of accidents happening posted somewhere on this thread via a link that the US/nato wouldnt look to take any action on this sort of thing. Accidents will happen is the general thought.So it’s only the newspapers and tabloids in general bigging it up as much as possible for clcikbait stories
+1 Almost all of that /\/\
Doesnt mean there wont be a NATO step up the escalation ladder, buts its only likely to be a step.
Way too much wild speculation to know any more than thay, from what Ive read so far.
So I don't need to eat double portion of scrambled egg and bacon for my last breakfasts this morning?
*Puts fork down*
This has been reshared by one of the Twitter OSINT accounts for a bit of perspective
https://twitter.com/Intel_Reporting/status/1502202915678666754?t=CypkmqoywiCEDM2aZoxbpA&s=19
And a MSM article https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb
yeah.. pull the other one
A defective missile fired in defence of Lviv is well within range of the Polish border and Przewodow
So I don’t need to eat double portion of scrambled egg and bacon for my last breakfasts this morning?
*Puts fork down*
The illegal use of CW by Russia in Salisbury didn't cause a major NATO reaction, enjoy brekkie 🙂
A Turkish merchant vessel was hit very early on too (not the only 3rd party merchant to be hit either)
https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1139973/Turkish-bulker-hit-by-bomb-off-Odessa
So I don’t need to eat double portion of scrambled egg and bacon for my last breakfasts this morning?*Puts fork down*
Food waste? Your worse than Hitler!
Biden reported as saying it probably wasn't fired by Russia.
Yup, Americans now saying not Russia, therefore almost certainly UA air defence missile that went off course.
Regardless, even if it was Russia, the idea that we’d steam straight into WW3 based on one errant missile is way wide of the mark. As mentioned above NATO has multiple escalation steps, and Russia really, really doesn’t want NATO any more involved than it already is..
Well that’s clear then. Article 5 needs to be invoked, NATO must invade And occupy all of Ukraine immediately to protect Poland from this reckless aggression. Poland must be protected from Ukranians lobbing missiles over the border willy nilly.
/sarcasm
Biden reported as saying it probably wasn’t fired
byfrom Russia.
FTFY.
“There is preliminary information that contests that. I don’t want to say that until we completely investigate. But it is unlikely in the minds [sic] of its trajectory that it was fired from Russia.”
It's entirely possible that some Ukrainian just pressed the wrong button.
It’s entirely possible that some Ukrainian just pressed the wrong button.
It's almost certainly just a missile that suffered a failure of the guidance system. It wasn't fired from Russian territory. It may have been fired from Belarus at a Ukrainian target, it may have been fired by Ukraine as an anti-missile weapon. The idea that NATO is going to go to war over a single missile that landed miles from any actual target, almost certainly by accident, is just silly.
So I don’t need to eat double portion of scrambled egg and bacon for my last breakfasts this morning?
*Puts fork down*
Had a 3 egg omelette for brekky, ‘Just in case’ 🤔
Your worse than Hitler!
Bet Hitler's grammar was up to scratch.... 😘
Had a 3 egg omelette for brekky, ‘Just in case’ 🤔
Monster. Are you aware Wetherspoons can't get enough eggs to make full English breakfast for their discerning clientele of morning drinkers?
Bet Hitler’s grammar was up to scratch…. 😘
LOL
The idea that NATO is going to go to war over a single missile that landed miles from any actual target, almost certainly by accident, is just silly.
With the propaganda in full swing on both sides I am not surprised if a single misfired missile could trigger WWIII.
A bit like the be a case of a single bullet that started WWI with the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria.
If I am not mistaken, go search online for this information as I read it somewhere, Poland has the largest number of volunteers fighting alongside Ukrainians, so naturally the assumption is a retaliation from Russia which add to further speculation and increase the tension.
I am not surprised if a single misfired missile could trigger WWIII.
I think it makes for a decent spy novel or film, but in all the history of either the US or CCCP launching weapons mistakenly, or systems "seeing" things that aren't there, the people in the systems on both sides have pretty much always prevented it. It's really not that easy to start a massive intercontinental war, regardless of what you might think.
I am not surprised if a single misfired missile could trigger WWIII.
You're letting your imagination run away with itself. All countries know that aircraft and missiles sometimes go off course and have accidents. A single stray missile landing in the countryside is not a big deal. If it was dozens of missiles or a concerted attempt at violating NATO airspace with multiple armed aircraft, the escalation level would ratchet up. However, the escalation ladder doesn't go directly from "Global Peace" to "WW3" without any intermediate steps.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1592602484060884993
I think it makes for a decent spy novel or film, but in all the history of either the US or CCCP launching weapons mistakenly, or systems “seeing” things that aren’t there, the people in the systems on both sides have pretty much always prevented it. It’s really not that easy to start a massive intercontinental war, regardless of what you might think.
In those instances missiles were nuclear armed ICBM's where they have 20 or so mins to decide if WW3 was starting and they needed to retaliate before they got wiped out and it never happened. They were not dealing with an astray cruise/AA missile. I dont think WW3 will start because of a non nuclear missile.
It’s really not that easy to start a massive intercontinental war, regardless of what you might think.
You’re letting your imagination run away with itself. All countries know that aircraft and missiles sometimes go off course and have accidents. A single stray missile landing in the countryside is not a big deal.
I dont think WW3 will start because of a non nuclear missile.
Phew! For a moment I thought roast meat was menu if Poland retaliates in a big way.
Thank god for Guardian and Biden admin for the clarification.
You know we are raring to go ...
That Lat Lon post is interesting - and yes I've checked the actual numbers. Hell of a coincidence otherwise.