MegaSack DRAW - This year's winner is user - rgwb
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Here's a thread on the nukes.
https://twitter.com/i/events/1577028721239900161?s=20 (The Telegraph, sorry but likely other info available too but I don't really do twitter.)
Nato also saddening member states of a likely test of the Poseidon nuclear capable drone/ torpedo "inn the black sea.
That latter part is purely sabre rattling though as the technology is still untested. It's the convoy moving forward Ukraine that's more interesting.
What happens if the convoy gets blown up?
zippykona
Full Member
What happens if the convoy gets blown up?
I doubt it's going to enter Ukraine so unlucky that will happen though I think the US have hunted they might take out any tactical nukes if they think they will be launched.
I bet the mad bugger won't launch them anyway but there's speculation he might do "test" launches or even a high altitude detonation of a tactical nuke over a apparent populated area in Ukraine.
Why knows?
"Loving" how Kim Jong-un has felt the need to launch a missle over Japan. Putin is even out batsh*t crazying him and I'm guessing he is craving a bit of attention!lol
Ive seen the image used in that Telegraph Tweet before and described as something else FWIW.
Waiting to see what happens when it starts getting really cold and the Russian troops are freezing to death.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1577058010790129665
Looks like it’s a rolling collapse in the North, Ukraine advancing too fast and with Russia unable to form a defensive live to stabilise the situation.
Assuming this continues and the bulk of the Northern Luhansk area is retaken, what are Ukraines next moves?
“Armchair General” time 😉
Roll up the remainder of forces north of the Dnipro river and retake Kherson.
Move these forces round to Zaporisia and strike down to Melitopol, severing the Russian territory in two. Destroy Kerch bridge. The Russians in Kherson are cut off from resupply.
Strike down to Mariupol splitting the Russian territory into three. All Russians west of Mariupol are now cut of from resupply.
Then squeeze.
You make that sound a lot simpler than I think it might be!
Ooh Dr Martin looks a good bloke to follow.
If that Dr Martin is right is going to be an absolute unmitigated disaster for Russia and Putin.
I'm guessing the inference is this will happen this year too?
I’m guessing the inference is this will happen this year too?
That would need a total Russian collapse.
I heard on the radio this morning that the weather is changing and the Ukrainians were struggling in mud, this will only get worse.
I’m guessing the inference is this will happen this year too?
Seems a few folk suggesting that the combination of low moral, low supply of basics, collapse of lines and command, bad weather incoming, cold nights and everything may be adding up to a near total collapse over the next few weeks...
Mike Martin has generally tended to be right, although some of his predictions take longer to come to pass than others.
I think so, Russian air support is severely lacking as is coordination between artillery/infantry/air/armour which leaves any artillery that fires vulnerable to counter battery return fire,
Ukrainians meanwhile seem to have got better at that
I read a thing recently on how Russian artillery/organisation is so hierarchical with such a blame culture, it becomes completely sclerotic. So, (I hope I've got this right), artillery get a list of targets. But if the tank at location 1 has driven away, the RU fire at where it was anyway, exposing their location, because to do otherwise would mean they weren't following orders exactly and will get a bollocking. Meantime the Ukranians have now located the artillery and can act accordingly.
I heard on the radio this morning that the weather is changing and the Ukrainians were struggling in mud
Is there such a thing as mud-specialist gear? Maybe local knowledge would help the defenders?
Or maybe they are pushing hard to achieve objectives before mud season, then they will wait for it to freeze over and they can attack using winter gear whilst the Russian troops freeze.
Or maybe they are pushing hard to achieve objectives before mud season, then they will wait for it to freeze over and they can attack using winter gear whilst the Russian troops freeze.
Now where did I hear of that method before?????
Looking back to the early days of the war, when any off-road manoeuvre was an unmitigated disaster for the Russians, in the Kyiv Offensive. Recent pictures of mud/big puddles suggest we aren’t far off that again in certain areas.
Didn’t the Ukrainian deliberately flood areas as well to make it impassable,
Is there such a thing as mud-specialist gear?
What tyres for expelling Russians?
Yeas, that was just to the N of Kyiv. During the mud season (Rasputitsa?) the whole country becomes a quagmire though. All that deep fertile soil, wet and deep!
Is there such a thing as mud-specialist gear?
Perhaps we need to start a new thread.
What tank tracks for Rasputitsa mud?
EDIT - beaten to it!
There was a lot of chat about tyres back in march. Tactical trucks have auto systems for changing tyre pressure, to allow on and off-road use. Russian tyre maintenance & quality was similar to everything else we have seen. Dreadful/non existent!
Twitter feeds chattering with talk of a big collapse in the North Kherson front…..
This map purports to show the latest situation. The attacks heading SW down the West Bank of the Dnipro seem to have linked up with those heading South East. The Russ are in big trouble. Again.
This seems to be a better representation of what has happened / is happening
Reports coming in that Davidy Brid has fallen, and the RF pulling back from the whole Inhulets River front. If so that is huge.
We are looking at @25000 troops on the wrong side of the Dniepr, low on supplies, cut off and no means of escape.
Depends on who/what they want to escape from. Surrender is a good option for them, at least that way they will get food and the ability to ride out the rest of the war.
What tyres for expelling Russians?
Nobby Nikolai surely or Racing Ральф.
This map from ISW shows the situation less than two days ago. This looming defeat dwarfs anything thus far. By all accounts some of Russia's most elite units are in Northern Kherson. Shambles.
Nobby Nikolai surely or Racing Ральф.
Der Kaiser Projekt surely?
Well, this will annoy some people on Twitter
https://twitter.com/BWallaceMP/status/1577274895095906305?t=cEepJsS11WeggZPZwBCMxA&s=19
It looks like the Funkrodent map from the previous page is the accurate one! Carnage in Kherson!
I wonder what'll happen in Crimea?
House prices in Crimea drop by as much as 50% in the couple of weeks
https://news.yahoo.com/crimea-seeing-sharp-fall-real-130100548.html
Sounds obvious, but these sorts of things matter when you are trying to run a not-quite-yet-completely totalitarian regime
So you are saying that now is the time to invest in beachside property in Crimea?
So you are saying that now is the time to invest in beachside property in Crimea
Haha! No. It's a good indicator of public opinion though
Looks like the Salvation Army could defeat the Russian Army
Looks like the Salvation Army could defeat the Russian Army
Sally Ann vs Fanny Adams
Not sure which is imploding faster - Russian lines or Liz Truss's government.
Not sure which is imploding faster – Russian lines or Liz Truss’s government
The race is on!
I'd be wondering why Russian media is showing such a humiliating pair of maps.
With my optomistic head on I would hope that they are preparing for more bad news to come out.
I thought it was quite telling that Dmitry Peskov said 'It is very positive that somebody like Elon Musk is looking for a peaceful way out of this situation'. Elon Musk is suggesting that things go back to how they were before the invasion. I presume they are seriously worried about losing Crimea
EDIT: apologies he also suggested new elections in some areas so not 100% as it was before
I’d be wondering why Russian media is showing such a humiliating pair of maps.
No mention of Ukraine gains on RT, only stories of 'unification' and how the EU / global economies are being crippled by their own actions.
Why stop. The Russian Armed forces need to be persuaded back into Russia. Crimea needs un annexing, then a non militarized zone established along the border.
Might take a year, but with this weeks gains could be done this year.
Although the more towns and villages that are liberated, the smaller the Area the Russian army has to defend.
The tactics of manoeuvre across open ground, swing in to flank or surround a tpwn seems to be working. Bit like mediaeval seige warfare but speeded up alot. And without a trebuchet in sight.
Curious as to why everyone on here is so celebratory about the collapse of the Russian army. Do we seriously think Putin is just going to put his hands up and say 'fair play lads, we were beaten fair and square'? Seems to me that it will be a pyrrhic victory which could ultimately result in the entire destruction of Ukraine and quite possibly the rest of the world.
If Putin loses the war and then says "okay lads just nuke the place" do you think his generals actually would?
all it needs is one to say yes
Curious as to why everyone on here is so celebratory about the collapse of the Russian army. Do we seriously think Putin is just going to put his hands up and say ‘fair play lads, we were beaten fair and square’?
Russia invaded Ukraine without a good reason and have laid waste to much of it, which most people agree is a bad thing. The Russian army that carried out the above is starting to collapse and it could signal the start of the end.
Yes Putin has made some nuclear threats, but if the world backs down and lets him get away with whatever he wants without challenging him, where does it end? The best result for Ukraine and the world is Russia being chased out of Ukraine and Putin being removed from power for his failures in Ukraine.
Curious as to why everyone on here is so celebratory about the collapse of the Russian army. Do we seriously think Putin is just going to put his hands up and say ‘fair play lads, we were beaten fair and square’? Seems to me that it will be a pyrrhic victory which could ultimately result in the entire destruction of Ukraine and quite possibly the rest of the world.
My hope is it will cause a coup or uprising of some kind. I think the miliary, from the individual troops on the front line through to the senior staff know the game is a bogey. I hope that they will realise that their future survival revolves around no more Pootin.
all it needs is one to say yes
Generals don't normally push the buttons, that falls to subordinate ranks who have form for not doing as ordered.
where does it end?
So you're willing to risk nuclear war and the lives of billions, your own life and those of everyone you know to uphold a principle? The obvious solution to this is some form of agreement between the two sides which will de-escalate the nuclear threat. Humiliating Putin and pounding the Russians into the dirt doesn't make nuclear war less likely, it massively increases the chances of it happening.
No one is suggesting he should be able to 'get away with whatever he wants', or that we shouldn't stand up to him, but expecting him to get away with nothing only makes the situation more dangerous. Where are the sensible heads in this? Seems like both sides are so entrenched that they would rather we bring about the end of the world than back down and swallow their pride. It's madness.
So you’re willing to risk nuclear war and the lives of billions
Giving in to nuclear threats also has that risk.
Giving in to nuclear threats also has that risk.
Quite
Giving in to nuclear threats also has that risk.
Everything has a risk. Seems pretty obvious to me that pursuing the total defeat and humiliation of Putin carries far more risk than seeking some sort of compromise. If it turns out he is batshit mental and blows the world up, would we feel better that we didn't give in to him? 😕
The obvious solution to this is some form of agreement between the two sides which will de-escalate the nuclear threat.
So what should Ukraine agree to? Pre 2022 lines, pre 2014 lines? If Putin is allowed more gains in Ukraine, before long he will be back for more.
Unfortunately using force is the only type of negotiation that Putin listens to.
If hes batshit mental enough, he'll invade the rest of Ukraine/Poland/Baltics.
By which point hell also think he can get away with it.
So what should Ukraine agree to? Pre 2022 lines, pre 2014 lines? If Putin is allowed more gains in Ukraine, before long he will be back for more.
This is it in a nutshell. He has to be stopped, with force, or he'll keep on invading. There is no third option
Seems pretty obvious to me that pursuing the total defeat and humiliation of Putin carries far more risk than seeking some sort of compromise
We compromised when he annexed Crimea and Donbas, and that's how we got here. Appeasement does not work
So what should Ukraine agree to? Pre 2022 lines, pre 2014 lines?
Ive honestly no idea.
Id always guessed at status quo ante bellum. But the attitudes of quite a few east Europeans I know personally and follow online are pretty resolute in wanting to see Russia pushed oit entirely.
Some Poles seem to absolutely hate them. A bit taken aback in the case of people I worked with as they worked with Russians in the same team.
He has to be stopped, with force, or he’ll keep on invading. There is no third option
So you're resigned to nuclear war then? Do you even understand what you're saying?
Everything has a risk
It does, but giving in to Nuclear blackmail doesnt reduce it. It may even increase it as it creates the precedent.
And thats a genie that goes far beyond Ukraine.
I think what Dazh is saying is that Putin and Russia might need an off ramp or things could get even worse.
Call that appeasement if you wish but it's one of the three options, the other two being death or glory.
It does, but giving in to Nuclear blackmail doesnt reduce it. It may even increase it as it creates the precedent.
Pursuing the total defeat of Putin pretty much guarantees a nuclear war. I ask again, is that something you're willing to accept so that you can say you maintained the moral high ground?
Call that appeasement if you wish but it’s one of the three options, the other two being death or glory.
No it's two options. Compromise or death. There is no option where Putin can be totally defeated without a war with the west. I suppose there's a small chance that a nato vs Russia war could remain non-nuclear, or at the very least a tactical nuclear war rather than a global exchange, but really who seriously thinks that would happen? Once the genie is out of the bottle we know where it will end.
No it doesnt guarantee it
No one is looking for total defeat, that would involve going to Moscow
It doesn't matter what I accept, id rather they didnt exist at all. Frankly, id hope for a negotiated settlement but i simply do not know where that would be, and how to ensure a lasting peace.
Are you willing to accept nuclear armageddon that willl result from giving in to nuclear blackmail?
@dazh - so what’s this compromise then - Ukraine give some territory to Russia and they just go away?
I think what Dazh is saying is that Putin and Russia might need an off ramp or things could get even worse.
That off ramp would presumably mean Russia hanging onto some of its gains since February wouldn't it?
Some Poles seem to absolutely hate them. A bit taken aback in the case of people I worked with as they worked with Russians in the same team.
Memories of Soviet occupation.
There is no option where Putin can be totally defeated without a war with the west.
This smacks of Putin's rhetoric early in the conflict about the possibility of Russia ceasing to exist. Has anyone in the West suggested that? Just get back to your own country Vlad and stop being a dick. No-one wants to invade or destroy Russia.
Pursuing the total defeat of Putin pretty much guarantees a nuclear war. I ask again, is that something you’re willing to accept so that you can say you maintained the moral high ground?
Thankfully that choice is not up to us on stw forum, it’s for Ukraine to decide, and for you to argue against their wishes to regain control and ownership of the entire country to pre 2014 is rather pathetic
I think we are banking on someone saying no to him when he gives the order.
Hmm.
Might happen in the West, if they ignore an order to launch when Russia does then no one will be any the wiser, if they ignore an order to launch and Russia doesn't they are a hero.
In Russia, less so. If they ignore an order to launch first will that lead to Putin's downfall or will they replaced with someone who will say yes?
Putin has clearly stated a number of times he want USSR land mapping back to pre glasnost he even wrote a paper on it.
That means treating Poland as USSR.
Ukraine really had/have no control over Putin and his sick ideas of Napoleonic conquest other than throwing everything at him.
Only china can put him back in the box diplomacy wise and I hope they are trying very hard
But chucking out “so your ok with” statements is pish.
One thing leads to the other. No one has yet come up with a realistic scenario where Putin accepts defeat without going nuclear (sorry Russian squaddies refusing to press the button doesn't count). Who knows maybe he would, but is it worth the gamble when we know what the end result would be?
How far into someone else's country should we let him march every time he rattles the nuclear stick?
Pursuing the total defeat of Putin pretty much guarantees a nuclear war. I ask again, is that something you’re willing to accept so that you can say you maintained the moral high ground?
No one is talking about invading Russia
Ukraine wants to get it's territory back
Russias annexations on the other hand shows that all they ever wanted to do was conquer Ukraine
Appeasing Putin is not the answer
No one is talking about invading Russia
What about the Crimea? There's plenty of talk now about Ukraine taking it back. I'm pretty sure that after 7 years of it being 'part of' Russia that Putin will regard that as an invasion of the homeland. Is regaining the Crimea for Ukraine worth risking nuclear war for?
Putin pretty much considers any part of Europe that might have had some Russian occupation at some point during the last few centuries is a de facto part of Russia now, and he has a more or less God-given right to take them back into Greater Russia. That includes all of the Balkans, Sweden, Finland and all of the Asian parts, the ‘stans.
It is historically factual that Ukraine was an independent country with its own culture existing before Russia did. Russia gets its name from the Rus, ‘those who build boats’, in other words Vikings who traveled across land and by rivers, and settled around Kyiv, eventually becoming Ukrainian princes. Olga of Kyiv was actually an ethnic Scandinavian Viking, although recent DNA research has shown that Vikings encompassed a number of different ethnic groups, including British.
Most countries’ sense of collective consciousness depends on a certain degree of undisputed mythology that becomes widely accepted by the population as part of national history. But Russia, in its institutions and collective memories, is searching for that sense of certainty in its past, given it has lost the last great unifying idea of Soviet communism.
The consequences of this loss pose a direct challenge, feeding Russia’s existential insecurities that it has not been able to reconcile since the late Soviet and especially the post-Soviet times – a story about Russian victimisation and loss of national patrimony.This is why Putin’s vision of Russia’s past clings to the idea of a ninth-century political entity known as the Kyivan Rus’, used by the president and his ideological allies as the anchor point for Russia’s nationhood.
Without it, Russia becomes a relatively young state, going back only as far as Ivan III, who came to the throne in the 1460s as the first monarch to assume the title of tsar (or emperor – even though this was never officially recognised).
Some Poles seem to absolutely hate them. A bit taken aback in the case of people I worked with as they worked with Russians in the same team.
On my work work travels I traveled to and met folk in Estonia, Lithuania, Hungary and Slovakia, I met more than a few who had real dislike for the Russians and what they did. We have to remember that independence from Russia is relatively recent - during early 1990s. Memories are real and raw for many.
Russia in the last few years and months has again shown that as a nation they are still using violence, brutality, disinformation and lying on an industrial scale.
that Putin will regard that as an invasion of the homeland.
Putin thinks Ukriane is Russia.
thread is descending from useful and interesting news to bickering
Yeh, sorry about that.