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This budget and the run through to May elections is completely make or break for Starmer and Reeves.
Double post gremlin
Oh, and surprise surprise, we’re back into the usual spirit-crushingly tedious, conspiracy theory territory, so beloved of the common room to justify their abject failure and general uselessness….
What conspiracy theory is that........ the one reported in the Daily Telegraph in which Jess Phillips openly boasted of her stabbing the leader of her party "in the front" to emphasis just how willing she was to publicly damage him?
That conspiracy "theory"?
Do you understand what the term "stabbing someone in the back" means? Well Phillips wanted to suggest a more extreme version of that.
Which must have been music to the ears of Daily Telegraph readers. Why do you think that might have been?
You don't need to wear a tinfoil hat to work out the answer to that question.
This budget and the run through to May elections is completely make or break for Starmer and Reeves.
Agreed
Oh, and surprise surprise, we’re back into the usual spirit-crushingly tedious, conspiracy theory territory, so beloved of the common room to justify their abject failure and general uselessness….
Jesus - if the current Labour party aren't the real spirit crushers then I don't know what is.
Fair play to the common room critique because Starmer won't be getting any of the young folk on his watch.
The national MRP polling showing big Westminster election majorities for Reform
There have been 12 MRP polls since the general election and only two show Reform winning a working majority.
The most likely possibility of Nigel Farage becoming PM is in a Reform-Tory coalition which as kimbers suggests would be a marriage made in hell.
But imo the biggest problem wouldn't necessarily be Farage's ego, after all he was pragmatic enough in 2019 to withdraw Brexit candidates to give the Tories a clear run where necessary, it's that those remaining in the Tory Party hate Reform and in turn Reform hate everyone and apparently now also themselves.
I think UK politics will be very unstable and unpredictable for probably quite a long time.
Agree about the unstable part. I still think a very likely result is that Reform will get the most votes at the next general election, but not the most seats. In fact, other parties freezing them out of power despite them "winning" the most votes is quite possible, with the "betrayal" and "respect the will of the people" (2019 Brexit style) claims paired with a large dose of "stolen election" narrative (2024 Trump style) possibly resulting in a full on far right take over of the UK at a following election (using whatever name they've adopted by then to keep up the "new politics" lie).
Worst poll rating in history? A PM with the lowest approval rating ever? Level in the polls with the green party? 20 points behind reform? Lets put up income tax for everyone, that'll solve it! The only conclusion I can come to is that handing the country to Farage is the actual plan just like handing it to Boris was in 2019. I know binners likes Life of Brian memes, Starmer's Labour party are the Judean People's Front suicide squad.
My prediction: A new Labour leader gives enough of a bounce before the next GE which along with Greens, LDs and a resurgent Plaid in Wales gives us a rainbow parliament, Labour to lead a minority coalition but be unpopular.
Lets put up income tax for everyone, that'll solve it!
They're really not getting it.
I did see murmurs of removing VAT on energy - that would be a good start.
Income tax rises would simply just drain money from the economy - and on a spreadsheet 'raise' around 8bn.
1) That won't really shrink a deficit much.
2) That will take much needed money away from certain corners of the economy.
3) Politically it's awful
There will always be "black-holes" (deficits) in government finances if we want money to be spent. Get used to that idea or things crumble.
Back peddling trying to plug 'holes' caused by years of money sliding to the wealthy rather than services - with income tax rises potentially on low earners is bonkers.
Interest income paid out daily from the government's bank is no problem.
You see the price of gold - that's an awful lot of money coming from somewhere in a time of apparent lack of money.
A new Labour leader gives enough of a bounce before the next GE
If they put up income tax they're going to need a new leader and new chancellor, and a cabinet which has almost no association with the current administration. I very much doubt Starmer, Reeves and the rest of their centrist travellers (Streeting, Lammy, Cooper, Phillipson et al) are willing to take one for the team however, as past history demonstrates that their hubris overrides everything else.
Also they're a particularly stubborn set-up as a government. Not giving a toss what people think it appears.
"This party/government keeps sliding to the right!"
"No... not tax rises!"
They've boxed themselves into a corner though... if they do increase headline rates of Income Tax or National Insurance, it'll be a gift to their political opponents. It'll make the LibDems tuition fee u-turn look like nothing. 10 years or more of very simple and easy to use campaign ammunition for the other parties to use.
Reality is they could simply spend now - not lift income tax this around - get the economy going then tax later.
'We can't afford' shouldn't even be here.
Agree about the unstable part. I still think a very likely result is that Reform will get the most votes at the next general election, but not the most seats. In fact, other parties freezing them out of power despite them "winning" the most votes is quite possible, with the "betrayal" and "respect the will of the people" (2019 Brexit style) claims paired with a large dose of "stolen election" narrative (2024 Trump style) possibly resulting in a full on far right take over of the UK at a following election (using whatever name they've adopted by then to keep up the "new politics" lie).
There was plenty of this in the council elections - in Cornwall there are more Reform councillors than any other party, however not enough to form a majority - queue lots of people chatting shit about how it shold be run by reform. None of those people seemed to understand that if Reform did run it then the rest of the parties could just vote them down.
They have had 14 years in opposition, Reeves was appointed shadow chancellor in 2020 and they have been in govt for well over a year with a massive majority - yet 4 weeks out from their first budget and labour are still flying kites with clearly no proper strategy in place other than to bend to the will of the media.
I'm beyond disgusted. Its an embarrassment for all of us that have supported Labour through thick and thin over the last couple of decades and will be catastrophic for the country.
Well I am currently sitting about 6 feet away from the minister for policing and crime, Sarah Jones, and despite my huge disappointment concerning her record on Palestine and have to concede that her connection with her constituents is impressive.
It's a packed coffee morning and despite her being a government minister she is genuinely interested in discussing very mundane topics with which effect the day to day lives of her ordinary constituents.
Edit : Making the point to highlight that it is always important to give credit where justified
I wonder if it's occured to Rachel From Accounts that her sacrosanct fiscal rules could easily be changed to account for the change the OBR made to their forecasting methodology which has created this so-called 20bn black hole? She's the chancellor FFS! It's entirely within her power to make this problem disappear, but no, instead she's going to get us all to pay more tax because the OBR has changed its forecasting algorithm. It's ####ing stupid.
There have been 12 MRP polls since the general election and only two show Reform winning a working majority
... the last two...
But digging into the data shows that Reform are wafer thin majority across many constituencies and some tactical voting would keep them out locally
Which was my point about 40% of voters have them last choice as opposed c30% first choice
Not the last two, one before last and one in August. It's possible but under the present political climate it is unlikely that Reform would have a working majority.
MRP polls
31 Aug – 24 Sep 2025 YouGov[24] N/A GB 13,000 144 45 78 37 311 7 6 3 Hung
(Ref −15)
9 Aug – 15 Sep 2025 More in Common[34] The Times[35] GB 19,520 90 41 69 34 373 6 4 14 Ref 96
21 Aug – 1 Sep 2025 Survation[295] 38 Degrees[47] UK 8,546 191 42 63 30 293 6 2 23[b] Hung
(Ref −33)
13–30 Jun 2025 More in Common[94] N/A GB 11,282 126 81 73 42 290 7 4 8 Hung
(Ref −36)
29 May – 18 Jun 2025 YouGov[104] N/A GB 11,500 178 46 81 38 271 7 7 3 Hung
(Ref −55)
10–17 Jun 2025 Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now[105] PLMR GB 5,444 118 29 69 26 377 4 4 5 Ref 104
14 Mar – 1 Apr 2025 More in Common[166] N/A GB 16,176 165 165 67 35 180 4 5 10 Hung
(Ref −146)
21–28 Mar 2025 Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now[170] PLMR[171] GB 5,180 180 133 49 30 227 4 4 5 Hung
(Ref −99)
22–29 Jan 2025 Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now[225] PLMR GB 5,743 174 178 57 37 175 4 2 5 Hung
(Con −148)
30 Nov 2024 – 5 Jan 2025 Focaldata[296] Hope not Hate[297] GB 17,790 287 163 63 22 76 4 4 13 Hung
(Lab −39)
31 Oct – 16 Dec 2024 More in Common[268] N/A GB 11,024 228 222 58 37 72 2 4 26[c] Hung
(Lab −98)
6–9 Dec 2024 Stonehaven[251] N/A GB 2,072 278 157 47 24 120 3 2 19[c] Hung
(Lab −48)
Now they’ve gone and released the migrant sex offender who caused the protests in Epping. You really couldn’t make this up. Makes the Truss and Sunak govts look like models of competence and effectiveness.
The prison service is stretched to breaking point… I doubt this is a rare case (but will make for rare headlines, because, you know, some criminals are of far more interest than others, for some reason).
Makes the Truss and Sunak govts look like models of competence and effectiveness.
In what way is this particular incident the direct responsibility of the current government?
Obviously and predictably Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage are milking it for all it's worth and attempting to somehow blame the current government. According to Badenoch this proves that the "entire system is collapsing under Labour". But I fail to understand the connection between this cock up and Labour.
Sir Keir Starmer is also predictably trying to use the incident to sound tough, according to him Kebatu "must be caught and deported for his crimes". Yeah well done mate, until you mentioned it the coppers had no idea what they were supposed to be doing, so well done for pointing them in the right direction. FFS
Ms Powell beat Sir Keir’s preferred candidate Bridget Phillipson by 87,407 votes to 73,576 in a clear message from Labour members that they want a change of direction. Although the turnout was only 16.6 per cent.
Wow. You have to assume that Labour Party members have at the very least a vague interest in politics and yet over 80% of them couldn't be bothered to vote in an election to choose their own deputy leader. How demoralised must Labour Party members be.
Well done Morgan McSweeney and Sir Keir Starmer, you are both the gift to Nigel Farage who doesn't stop giving.
The media were excluded from the event as Labour attempted to minimise media exposure on another difficult day for Sir Keir. The result itself was played out in a small room with only a few invited guests.
I found that really quite sinister, how the clique who now control the party are so loathed to openness and any light being shone on Labour Party proceedings.
They really have developed a bunker mentality. Although I guess it is perfectly in keeping with what you would expect from a nasty right-wing authoritarian clique.
Mmmm does the Labour Party have 1million+ members as suggested by the Independent's maths? Isn't it more like 300,000
So I'm assuming the difference is people who are affiliated members via a union which is in turn affiliated to the Labour Party.
Not saying it's a exactly brilliant though
Still a tiny turnout. Raynor got three times as many votes when she was elected. Still, a good result in what looked like a sewn up election… Powell far more interesting than Phillipson… a surprise and welcome result. Labour need Raynor back though.
So I'm assuming the difference is people who are affiliated members via a union which is in turn affiliated to the Labour Party.
Yes it includes affiliated Labour Party members. I am happy to acknowledge that fact, my point remains the same.....you have to assume that Labour Party members, including a affiliated members, have at the very least a vague interest in politics and yet over 80% of them couldn't be bothered to vote in an election to choose their own deputy leader. How demoralised must Labour Party members, including affiliated members, be.
Btw the turnout in this deputy leader election represents a 42% drop when compared to the previous one.
suggested by the Independent's maths?
The Independent's maths all comes directly from the Labour Party (the media were excluded from the official event)
https://labour.org.uk/updates/members-updates/labour-party-deputy-leadership-result-announcement/
Now they’ve gone and released the migrant sex offender who caused the protests in Epping. You really couldn’t make this up. Makes the Truss and Sunak govts look like models of competence and effectiveness.
On one hand, I do accept that this is probably a consequence of many years' underinvestment and failure in the criminal justice system. But on the other hand, it is such a monumental ****up that I really do think it is a moment for the minister responsible for the department to resign. Instead of deporting the offender, he was set free and given £75 cash. There is probably no quicker way to undermine public confidence.
It's a shitshow. Starmer should crack the whip and this government should be straighter than straight.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Individual_ministerial_responsibility
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/oct/25/sex-offender-freed-by-mistake-search-london
Btw the turnout in this deputy leader election represents a 42% drop when compared to the previous one.
That was held at the same time as the election for leader though, so interest much higher. But your point still stands. A very low turnout this time.
The migrant sex offender who caused the protests in Epping
He didn’t cause them though, did he. We have criminals like this offending all the time in the UK. The uproar wasn’t caused by him by his actions, by his crime (we’d have constant protests if that was the case), but by the racist hatred being pedalled against immigrants of all kinds, especially but not uniquely asylum seekers.
But on the other hand, it is such a monumental ****up that I really do think it is a moment for the minister responsible for the department to resign.
Was it? I have to confess that I don't know the cause of the ****up but it seems quite plausible to me that it might have been a minor ****up in which one individual didn't do their job properly, I believe that someone has been suspended.
Have you any evidence that it was a huge systematic ****up which a current government minister was directly responsible for?
So I today received a notification in the post that I was going to be credited with the Winter Fuel Payment and then went on to tell me if I never met the criteria (which I don't) the HMRC will take it back through taxation. What a useless waste of time and cost.
It might seem like illogical but that's exactly the way these things should work when thought out correctly.
Meaning they can pay to everyone and tax back out of the system for those that sit in the upper tiers.
That's better than means testing as it takes all sorts of things into account.
https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1982011088347582532
Crikey.......Sir Keir Starmer appears to have had a 'Road to Damascus' moment and has finally understood what everyone has been telling him
"Lucy has always been a proud defender of Labour values, and that is exactly what we need in this moment"
Thank **** he has decided to stop trying to out-farage Nigel Farage
Any views on the possible VAT threshold moving from £90k to £30k and the effect on small businesses? Has there been any more news about this, how likely it's looking to happen or if it was just a possible consideration?
Any views on the possible VAT threshold moving from £90k to £30k and the effect on small businesses? Has there been any more news about this, how likely it's looking to happen or if it was just a possible consideration?
Not heard anything.
But that's an interesting one. I'm on flat rate so need to keep an eye out
I'm already liable for vat anyway but this would really give a big knock to small businesses at the worst possible time.
These small efforts cause more harm than good. In fact it's all harm.
When Gordon Brown introduced flat rate it was a huge help. Less admin and a better deal for small businesses.
But Labour are hell bent on destroying everything apart from big wealth.
Thank **** he has decided to stop trying to out-farage Nigel Farage
i do wonder if Powells points about listening to members might be getting through ?
pushing the Tories on Katie Lams insane (and obviously not thought through) deportation plans
and calling out Reforms overt racism
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/oct/26/wes-streeting-sarah-pochin-tv-advert-remarks-racist
we can but hope!
and my son (9years) said something profoundly sad to me today, he was worried that his best friend at school would have to leave, because hed told my son that people in London wanted Indian people to leave Britain, im assuming hes talking about the yaxley -lennon march in London.
Im a cub leader in a very ethnically diverse area and Im very saddened by the thought of the kids i know feeling like this.
we can but hope!
I reckon that the Caerphilly by-election result has been an eye opener for Labour, at least it should be.
It was widely predicted that Reform would win, which of course they didn't. This however proved of no benefit to Labour it just proves that right now voters want anything but Labour and that when they are offered a credible alternative to Reform, even a left-wing alternative to Reform, they are very likely to go for that.
In Caerphilly Plaid Cymru were the non-Labour left-wing alternative to Reform in England it is largely the Green Party, Keir Starmer and Morgan McSweeney would have to be monumentally stupid to continue to focus solely on Reform and ignore the growing threat from the left.
And Caerphilly didn't just prove to Labour that the real threat is now both on the right and the left. After losing a seat which they had held for a hundred years with just 11% share of the vote it also proved that every single Labour seat is under threat right now.
Having said all that I think it is too late now and Labour will almost certainly experience years of electoral damage caused by Starmer as the LibDems are still 15 years on dealing with the electoral damage caused by Nick Clegg. The next general election will be a total disaster for Labour and damage limitation is the best they can hope for.
Labour won the last general election on a one word slogan "change", no one really knew what change a Labour government would bring but voters were clearly desperate for change, that's why Labour won.
Now Reform are in the same position as Labour were before the last general election... they are promising change and just like Labour most voters have no real idea what this alleged change will be. However for voters who have can't see Reform offering anything, and are fed up with Labour behaving like Tory/Reform-lite, there are now other alternatives such as the Greens and Plaid Cymru.
The very first sentence in Labour's election manifesto:
"This election is about change"
You can't blame voters wanting change when the Labour Prime Minister makes it clear that change is the most important priority.
Labour won the last general election on a one word slogan "change", no one really knew what change a Labour government would bring but voters were clearly desperate for change, that's why Labour won
I've absolutely no idea why they thought the current path was better option. (I personally don't think they will ever get it.)
All of Labour's success was based on Tory collapse and positive change.
Why was this painfully obvious a while back too?
Labour won the last general election on a one word slogan "change", no one really knew what change a Labour government would bring but voters were clearly desperate for change, that's why Labour won
I've absolutely no idea why they thought the current path was better option. (I personally don't think they will ever get it.)
All of Labour's success was based on Tory collapse and positive change.
Why was this painfully obvious a while back too?
Labour won the last general election on a one word slogan "change", no one really knew what change a Labour government would bring but voters were clearly desperate for change, that's why Labour won
I've absolutely no idea why they thought the current path was a better option. (I personally don't think they will ever get it.)
All of Labour's success was based on Tory collapse and positive change.
Why was this painfully obvious a while back too?
Hope this is heeded:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/oct/27/racist-incidents-against-uk-nurses-surge