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But the Tories have never received less than 30% in any general election in the last 200 years.
If 2019 showed us anything, it demonstrated that folks are more than willing to be transactional now. cf. public in historically strong Labour areas voting for the Tories to 'Get Brexit Done' and reject Corbyn. The Tories have ****ed it for a great many folks, including their own traditional supporters.
Yeah, one of the big mistakes I made about 2019 was that I was adamant that there was no way a long term labour voter was going to vote conservative. Just wouldn't happen I thought
Last night I was doing a twitter/bluesky roundup and came across an interesting comment which basically said ignore your personal biases and just focus on the data. Now I accept that the Tories have never dropped below 30% etc etc, and yes, it's not really a bias, but the data is telling us a very different story.
Attempting to predict the seats accurately must be very challenging. I'd be so happy to see the tories beaten down to third and 2 to 3 weeks ago that wasn't far off at all according to electoral calculus. Iirc tories about 63, lib 59 was showing, lab 485. Since then rishi has made several mistakes, Nigel has reappeared, lab has done well, however as of this morning lab down to 461, most of those seats are now predicted tory at 80, lib up a couple, reform 1.
I can't remember the %support numbers as I focus on the seats. My guess is the trend will continue with wavering tory voters deciding they will be well punished and a viable tory opposition is important so they will vote tory, resulting in them getting 100 or more seats. I'd love to see something happen that shifted public views and made people think lib or a lib coalition, would be the most effective opposition. Perhaps such a shift would see tory vote collapse resulting in them finishing 3rd. It's just a dream, but possible perhaps.
Anyway, we seem to be on track for a 200-220+ labour majority at the moment I reckon. Stunning and to think where things were in 2019.
But the Tories have never received less than 30% in any general election in the last 200 years.
So what?
My point wasn't clear? Really?
I don't believe that they will receive less than 20%. In the same way that I don't believe any other extraordinary unlikely scenario.
Sure I am prepared to believe that it might be there worse general election ever but I'm not prepared to believe that they will be down to just 19 MPs.
Indulging in fantasies might be fun but a bit pointless if you are trying to have a serious political discussion.
When do we start thinking beyond getting elected? The Times predicts that LP and Tories would effectively freeze the NHS budget for 5yrs and the figures Reeves is tossing about are minimal. If she thinks she can get private business to invest, why haven't they done so since 2008?
When do we start thinking beyond getting elected?
What, the 2029 election? Can't see much happening in next 5 years based on the aims of Labour with zero ambition.
My only hope is that the Labour Party revolts when in power and ditches Starmer and Reeves within a year.
I don’t believe that they will receive less than 20%. In the same way that I don’t believe any other extraordinary unlikely scenario.
I’m with you on this one Ernesto. I don’t care what the polls are presently saying. There are loads of Tory voters who are presently flirting with Farage (and telling pollsters that), but when it comes to July 4th their muscle memory will default to putting their cross in the Tory vote, same as usual
I’d love to think the Tories are in for the day of reckoning they so richly deserve but I won’t believe it until I see it
But the Tories have never received less than 30% in any general election in the last 200 years.
Have they ever had to contend with another right wing option though ?
Anyway… more proof (as if it were needed) of how desperate, totally bereft of ideas and completely detached from reality they now are…
Jeremy Hunt: Liz Truss economic plans were ‘good thing to aim for’
“Hunt praised Truss for “accepting the mistakes she’d made with good grace” and repeatedly refused to accept her plans had left a long-term impact on the economy. When pressed on whether he thought the country was currently battling negative effects, he said: “No I don’t think it’s had an effect. I don’t think it’s the main cause.”
Christ on a bendybus! Where do you even start with that?
Just out of curiosity, has anyone here ever bene polled? Quick straw poll in the office shows that no-one here has ever been contacted by a pollster. So who are they actually contacting and how? Do they rely on people who still have their home numbers in the phone book?
I read the hunt article earlier.
Utterly bereft of competency now, and it almost seems impossible but the rhyming slang of his name just gets more and more accurate
Have they ever had to contend with another right wing option though ?
Obviously the Tories have not been the only right-wing option in the last 200 years.
Edit: And in the case of Reform UK Nigel Farage he loves to claim that it is a totally new party but as usual he's talking bollocks. It's just the latest name for the Nigel Farage vanity party.
franksinatraFull Member
Just out of curiosity, has anyone here ever bene polled? Quick straw poll in the office shows that no-one here has ever been contacted by a pollster.
yes, twice but online
Farage, whatever his party is called this election and his supporters summed up perfectly by John Crace
Nigel Farage’s Reform contract isn’t worth the paper it’s written on – but who cares?
My point wasn’t clear? Really?
No, it was clear - I'm just countering it. Simply saying that they have never before got such a low percentage isn't a good reason to predict it won't happen this time. Everything that has ever happened happened for the first time at some point.
Fianna Fail went from 41% vote share in 2007 to 18% in 2011.
While Fianna Fáil’s slap on the wrist for economic mismanagement was somewhat enjoyable it’s really not comparable: a first preference in PR:STV isn’t the same thing as a vote in FPTP. They went back into government in a subsequent election.
Sun Exclusive......
KEIR FOR THE BEERS Boost to pubs as Labour promises new powers to protect closure-threatened boozers — and hints beer duty will be frozen
😕
with lots of Rachel Reeves "Johnsonesque/Farage" smiley pint pulling/supping photo's....
The Tories lost 33% of their vote share in Scotland in 1997. Why not the same across the UK this time? These Tories are far worse than Major's Tories.
Separately: imagine England wins (or does really well) at the Euros. Does that help Starmer or Sunak? I would imagine it would also boost the Plaid Cymru and SNP votes as ordinary people there recoil from the prospect of Eng-er-lund triumphalism (and fall victim to envy).
Separately: imagine England wins (or does really well) at the Euros. Does that help Starmer or Sunak?
Did you not watch them the other night? The only beneficiary of this present Euros in the UK are going to be the suppliers of Jude Bellingham replica Engerland tops
Separately: imagine England wins (or does really well) at the Euros. Does that help Starmer or Sunak?
The Euros finishes after the election!
When do we start thinking beyond getting elected? The Times predicts that LP and Tories would effectively freeze the NHS budget for 5yrs and the figures Reeves is tossing about are minimal.
Reckon it'll be much the same as the Blair govt minus the largesse on benefits. Pretty sure the NHS and other public services will get a huge cash injection and public sector workers will see more generous pay deals. They'll have such a huge majority they won't have to worry about any questions about where the money is coming from and Starmer won't want to start his premiership by pissing off his MPs by sticking to tory austerity.
Separately: imagine England wins (or does really well) at the Euros. Does that help Starmer or Sunak? I would imagine it would also boost the Plaid Cymru and SNP votes as ordinary people there recoil from the prospect of Eng-er-lund triumphalism (and fall victim to envy).
If England are through to the quarter finals on election day, it will boost the incumbents. The red top papers will be joyous and all will be well in our sceptic isle for a little bit.
Our 'septic isle'?
If England are through to the quarter finals on election day, it will boost the incumbents
Not if everyones in the pub, absolutely leathered
If England are through to the quarter finals on election day, it will boost the incumbents.
Why? I'm not aware of any of our political parties being pro football or anti football relative to any other. Who are the voters who'd see the results on the football pitch and have it influence which box they tick in the voting booth? Which are the parties that can make a claim on the success or who you'd blame for the failure?
Why? I’m not aware of any of our political parties being pro football or anti football relative to any other.
Recent sporting success and/or a military conflict result in an uplift of support for current governing party. Its well evidenced, even if not at all logical.
Recent sporting success
making it to (but not having yet competed in) the quarter finals by election day counts as success? 😉
Starmer can also claim the win as they wouldn't have won if Sunak was still PM
a first preference in PR:STV isn’t the same thing as a vote in FPTP.
Who said it was? The point is that established parties sometimes loose their tradition support, and often in startling ways. That its never happened to the Tories is probably only indicative of the fact that they've never managed to alienate quite so much of the electorate before.
That its never happened to the Tories is probably only indicative of the fact that they’ve never managed to alienate quite so much of the electorate before.
post 2008 and the legacy of austerity that followed has blown up a lot of the traditional base for all parties, for all this talk of a supermajority & Tories out of power for 20 years, Labour need to be aware that they could easily find themselves out of favour- the elctorate is more switchy than ever
making it to (but not having yet competed in) the quarter finals by election day counts as success?
You're not an England fan are you?
post 2008 and the legacy of austerity that followed has blown up a lot of the traditional base for all parties, for all this talk of a supermajority & Tories out of power for 20 years, Labour need to be aware that they could easily find themselves out of favour- the elctorate is more switchy than ever
This + look at France.
We're electing a left-ish government because we're fed up with the other one, not because we're moving to the left. It just happens that we're oscillating back that way.
Reform is only going to get worse. And a Reform + Tory coalition in 2029 is something I'm very worried about.
Simply saying that they have never before got such a low percentage isn’t a good reason to predict it won’t happen this time.
I have already conceded that anything can happen. I said that the LibDems could win the election, the Greens could get 10 MPs, and the Tories could get just 19 seats.
None of those things will happen of course.
Although we will know soon enough if I'm wrong and the Tories are down to just 19 seats, in two and a half weeks actually, so not long.
19 seats was an outlier so is unlikely. But LD in opposition is much less unlikely, albeit probably not the most likely outcome.
My guess is:
- Chance of result according to the poll average: 50%
- Chance of majority being much slimmer than polls due to electoral calculus being inaccurate: 30%
- Something totally bat-shit happening: 20%
And a Reform + Tory coalition in 2029 is something I’m very worried about.
France is a good example, a far Right party has tidied up its image a lot, Reforms manifesto was pie in the sky nonsense, LePen's policies are still contradictory & damaging (Macron is banking on this) but its far more polished in its delivery
Our ‘septic isle’?
Normally sceptred would be used but since the sewage discharge scandal we're septic!
Dear god, Rishi must be really desperate now! He’s wheeled out the sex yeti for an endorsement, who made his usual amount of effort…
Saw my first Reform sign today, by a farm field.
All it would take would be the tories to drop 2 points below where they are at the moment and a bit of tactical voting could see them entire parliamentary party fitting into a minibus
Yes, changing that FT poll to Tories = 20% gives this in seats.
LD official opposition (though do have to compare that with CON+DUP?) and still no Reform seats.
Drop the Tory share another couple points and Dr. Who beats the evil Master in Clacton.
by a farm field.
Is that better or worse than a country mile?
Jesus, Boris looks like he will be needing the nhs bigtime shortly
There was a tory sign in a local farmers field near to town here in galloway, until it was spray painted with "vote tory get ****s", very apt.
It was replaced and the next night same thing......good....good.
Jesus, Boris looks like he will be needing the nhs bigtime shortly
I'd prefer an undertaker.
Postal vote just arrived.