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And a Reform + Tory coalition in 2029 is something I’m very worried about.
I'm not as it'd just tip us over to leaving the UK.
If the Sun are running Pro Starmer headlines, even just lighthearted ones, that is quite significant.
Yep, could be a trigger for me too as 2029 is good timing for retirement. Luckily I married a Belgian (not many people say that) so have a choice of countries I can live in although any of those will be far right by then!
Labour need to be aware that they could easily find themselves out of favour- the elctorate is more switchy than ever
Very true. I live in a solid labour constituency but got a lib dem canvasser pop by. Seriously considering switching.
Dear god, Rishi must be really desperate now! He’s wheeled out the sex yeti for an endorsement, who made his usual amount of effort…
Wonder how much the sex yeti got paid for that?
And a Reform + Tory coalition in 2029 is something I’m very worried about
.
Yeah unless you have faith that Labour will deliver something satisfactory by 2029, and let's face it Labour themselves are claiming that they will be very restricted in what they will be able to do in government, then 2029 is a big worry.
Who will people who are dissatisfied with a Labour government's performance vote for in 2029?
I don't think that 5 years is enough time for the Tories to regain their credibility in the eyes of voters. So what's the choice - Reform UK or the LibDems?
14 years on the LibDems are still struggling with credibility issues since their decision to enable a Tory government and wholeheartedly support austerity. I am not convinced that another 5 years will definitely be enough.
That leaves Reform UK then.
And I'm not even sure that they will need to go into coalition with the Tories, in just two years Reform UK have gone from 5% support in the polls to more than treble that.
I reckon that too much close association with a discredited Tory Party might actually damage Reform UK. Farage likes to portray Reform UK as a "new" party untainted by the failings of the "establishment" parties.
What I do know though is that the Left and progressive parties need to get their shit together for the next general election if the threat posed by Farage is to be minimised. How likely that is to happen depends I guess on how scared they are of a Farage government. I certainly wouldn't be too confident that they will.
UKIP and the BREXIT party both managed to poll above 25%.
They'll probably be a fourth incarnation by 2029, under yet another name, doing the same, or better. But we have seen these bubbles of support for Farage's lot before. And will do again. If they work out how to connect with the youth vote as well as the oldies, as their political compatriots in many other countries have, we're in big trouble. For now... don't buy into their hype or give credence to the snakewater they're selling.
Yeah unless you have faith that Labour will deliver something satisfactory by 2029, and let’s face it Labour themselves are claiming that they will be very restricted in what they will be able to do in government, then 2029 is a big worry.
I disagree a little. What they need to do is deliver a bit more than people expect. They need to get to the “well it’s not perfect, but it’s better than I expected” position.
And to do that they need to underplay like nobody’s business in the first couple of months.
New poll shows the gap between Labour and the Tories widening, not narrowing as might have been expected more than half way through an election campaign.
Labour's lead climbs to new high as Conservatives fall further
It also confirms the other poll that claimed 27% of 2019 Tory voters are now backing Reform UK.
The share of Conservative 2019 voters switching to Reform has climbed four points to 27% this week
Reforms' growth actually holds its own risks, especially if it gets a few MPs.
The grifting egomanicacs that tend to be drawn towards leadership roles in populist right wing politics will soon chafe under the yoke of Nige, who doesn't seem to like sharing the limelight or the funds and the growth of Reform will soon lead to some hilariously vicious infighting and factionalism.
Of course that's not to say they can't truly bugger up the country before that happens, but it's a matter of when, not if.
It's been much repeated on here but never has a government got elected and then moved left, always to the right. The LP are trying to downplay people's aspirations already, it doesn't augur well. Expelling the left in the party and parachuting in placemen to safe seats reflects Starmer's desire to brook no opposition.
parachuting in placemen to safe seats
We elected the same parliamentary candidate that stood in our seat under Corbyn. I don't know who your local Labour members chose. Not a safe seat though. Perhaps if we get as many Labour MPs as possible in the commons not from traditionally "safe seats", we'll get a wider church of Labour MPs than if Labour only scrape a win based on safe seats plus more winnable seats.
The grifting egomanicacs that tend to be drawn towards leadership roles in populist right wing politics
We’re just coming off a political tailspin of Johnson -> Truss -> Sunak. Reform UK haven’t been the only ones competing for the attention of grifting egomaniacs drawn to leadership roles in populist right wing politics.
I do find it amusing that the voters the Tories chased hardest in recent years are defecting to Reform UK, while many traditional right-centrist conservative voters seem to be voting Lib Dem, Labour, or even Green depending on their constituency. Much of the remaining Conservative support looks very likely to depart the electorate over the next couple of electoral cycles. That’s the real extinction event.
good comparison of how the different pollsters weight their data
For reference-Tory averages for
_________ nowcasters- 19%, (<50seats) ___squeezers-n 21(<100 seats), ____reweighters- 23.5(~200seats)
the squeezers are asking the dont knows who they'd vote for , the reweighetrs basing it on previous elections
either method could be right, but with 3 other parties taking their votes & the Tories breathtakingly unpopular if nothing major changes .....
then IMHO Tories looking at a massive wipeout (<100 seats) rather than the 19% (<50 seats) Oblivion
also sunaks own team must really hate him to arrange this kind of stuff
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1803064545776124024
IPSOS (usually very accurate predictor of a GE) MRP is out
They have Corbyn losing, Farage getting Clacton and Tories just about staying above 100MPs
That 'feels' realistic, and hopefully will prevent too much 'it's in the bag' complacency among Labour voters.
They have Corbyn losing, Farage getting Clacton and Tories just about staying above 100MPs
And apparently the Green Party ending up with 3 MPs, which doesn't sound very realistic to me - I am not aware of any opinion polls which claim that the Greens will get more than 2 seats, most claim just one.
Predicting the tail is very hard. Green will likely retain Brighton and Reform win something. I said earlier, conservatives will do better than the dooming at about 120 seats. I can’t imagine them getting less than 100. But then I could imagine Trump and Johnson as leaders of UK/US!
The Lib Dems’ “Project A30”
https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1802954266300080629
Looks like 13% of the vote would do it.
PS, why don't X/Twitter posts embed on here now?
It’s been much repeated on here but never has a government got elected and then moved left, always to the right. The LP are trying to downplay people’s aspirations already, it doesn’t augur well. Expelling the left in the party and parachuting in placemen to safe seats reflects Starmer’s desire to brook no opposition.
Yeah that ^ , austerity 3.0 and flatlining like hedgehogs crossing the M25
He’s wheeled out the sex yeti for an endorsement
It’s like the Honeymonster’s been hitting his own supply hard and long.
flatlining like hedgehogs crossing the M25
I hate it when I laugh at inappropriate gems like this.
14 years on the LibDems are still struggling with credibility issues since their decision to enable a Tory government and wholeheartedly support austerity. I am not convinced that another 5 years will definitely be enough.
That leaves Reform UK then.
I'm not convinced the Venn diagram of folk who might vote Reform or might vote LibDem has a big enough overlap to be a concern.
DEADLINE TO REGISTER TO VOTE IS MIDNIGHT TELL YOUR FRIENDS.
yes it is caps ON important
Not sure where best to post this but here is probably as good a place as any considering this election is “supposedly” about a fairer society, not that I have any faith in Starmer and his “advisors” to do anything to fix it
That Ipsos data is only 1014 people! Ipsos is up to 4 June so why so late to publish the data? And no constituency data
Survation is based on 30k respondents to June 3 and was published on June 4 with constituency data
I see he's visiting the south west today. Hands up, who doesn't love a Cornish Patsy?
The ipsos one is 20,000 proportionally across constituencies fieldwork 7-14th june
https://twitter.com/IpsosUK/status/1803107966637199746?t=FEwI1oYrf6uTarvzZKa7fQ&s=19
No self selection so should be less biased
Has reform lower & tories higher than other polls and constituency data is pretty close to national swing, except in a few constituencies where they pick up big local effects, personalities etc, eg Anderson with big numbers in Ashfield. And that 3rd green seat in north Herefordshire (that was close with Survation MRP too)
Rather than watch the C4 debate on immigration (I’d rather punch myself in the balls) I’m watching this instead,
The Tories have got Laura Trott to do a party political broadcast tonight. Laura Trott?!! Nobody else. Just 5 minutes of Laura Trott stood at a podium reading out stuff they just made up.
Seriously? That’s it?
Obviously nobody else will go near that gig so they’ve got a woman doing it who’s so dense that light bends around her.
You can actually smell the desperation now. Sunak is now like kryptonite. Nobody wants to go anywhere near him or have anything to do with the upcoming electoral Armageddon.
Has the Farage kicking off about paying vetting company (who don't do the vetting) been done?
Has the Farage kicking off about paying vetting company (who don’t do the vetting) been done?
No but it's very funny
It will stop being funny when we have a competent far right party, but right now we can laugh
Rishi v Jay Rayner. There’s only going to be one winner there
https://Twitter.com/jayrayner1/status/1803029108244291832?s=46&t=1lK7Dw1b6RqGJyvufO-trQ
Missed that ipsos data when I looked earlier kimbers.....
Different recommendations for some seats cf electoral calculus and ft.......
Not sure how well MRP takes into account recent local council results and local candidate time in constituency vs parachute candidates from above
They're just throwing whatever they can at the wall to see what sticks.
But what he wont do is attack farage who has promised to destroy the tories
It’s been much repeated on here but never has a government got elected and then moved left, always to the right
Once the dust has settled on a Labour win get ready for the right-wing backlash. Remember British voters are so arrogant and see themselves as right about everything all along. They will be lapping up the not right-wing enough narrative fed to them by the press. Give it five years of Labour (yet again failing to deliver for working people) getting savaged by the right-wing press, who will point it out at every opportunity and they will be ready for a BNP light fronted by the right person!
This (and some other social media platforms) are the only places I hear clamouring for a green socialist future, I just don't hear it anywhere out there in real life! You can thank Just Stop Oil, social media know-it-alls and money grabbing councils for seeing the greens pushed further down the agenda. People don't want to be shamed, chastised, then fined and restricted going about their day-today lives and will vote accordingly.
Imagine you've been in a coma for the last 10 years, you miraculously wake up and want to catch up on the news, and this is the first story you read...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/tony-blair-rosie-duffield-holyrood-basingstoke-canterbury-b2564637.html
what would you think has happened while you were out?
I'd think some people are very easily triggered by culture war nonsense?
More than half of voters want Jeremy Corbyn back in the Labour Party, new poll reveals