Under the circumstances I’d have thought upper teens.
Yeah it is a little surprising under the circumstances but I wouldn't be surprised if support for the LibDems shoots up in the last couple of days of the campaign, as well as that of the Tories, as people become convinced that Starmer will have a huge majority.
I think a lot of people are still a bit sceptical of the certainty of a large Labour majority, whatever the polls say.
I see the little fella had been at the dressing up box again.
Why does he do this? He looks so horrendously uncomfortable wearing hard hats and stuff that normal people wear to do actual proper jobs, it just massively magnifies how far removed from that world he is.
I suppose if you’re on an oil rig though, at least you’ve got a legit reason for arriving by helicopter
I think this needs to be settled by a political episode of Gladiators, beamed out live to the nation on prime time Saturday night telly.
This explains why Ed Davey is doing all these stunts. He’s obviously in training.
If that's the methodology, from what I've seen of his training, Libdems are in danger of finishing 12th behind even the weird sexytime tantric lady
Just read the last two pages. I kept agreeing with that ernielynch chap. Terrible. I need to dust down my pro-Europe, pro-Britain, anti-Brexit, middle class educated liberal credentials and start shouting about banning things. 😉
Mad Fadge’s manifesto made less sense that a Truss-tastic budget. And would hurt the country more.
But anyone who wants to defend it is welcome to try.
All just my opinion of course.
Farages ‘contract’ may be a load of old swollocks, but he’s once again leading Rishi and chums around by the nose
Wherever he goes, they all trot dutifully along behind him. They’ll never beat him in a head to head for the racist pensioners vote, but the man-frogs anti-net-zero statements over the last few days had Lil Rishi flying out to an oil rig to tell them all how much he just loves burning good old British fossil fuels.
Its tragic really just how terrified they are of him, Nige is technically already Tory Party leader as he’s essentially writing their policies for them on the hoof
https://Twitter.com/rishisunak/status/1802683854358004159?s=46&t=1lK7Dw1b6RqGJyvufO-trQ
Mad Fadge’s manifesto made less sense that a Truss-tastic budget. And would hurt the country more.
Reforms manifesto is the right equivalent of the greens manifesto, they are parties who will never be near power, so have no real concern about ever having to integrate the actual policies, instead just having them down and preaching them gives them the backing of certain voters.
The way I'm reading the various voting intention polls is that reform have basically nicked approximately 50% of the Conservative vote... Give or take. Which can only be good news for labour, lib dems and greens.
Con + reform is still not quite good enough to match labours lead.. So if anything I think we'll see a Labour majority, or possibly a Labour deal with the libs and /or greens.
The numbers just don't add up for a Tory /reform deal.
Although voting intentions don't translate directly into seats won so it will be interesting to see what seats are won and by who..
I think that one of the things about mathematical models, including polling models, is that the greater the change that is predicted, they are vastly more uncertain.
I am not a statistics expert, but I am an amateur mathematician, and AFAIK there is no way to correct for this other than guessing.
For that reason I don’t think that we’ll see quite the wipeout that the polls are predicting.
Won’t a lot of previous Tory voters suddenly vote Tory again if they think they are heading for that level of wipe out. I can’t quite believe a 300+ seat loss (but happy to see one).
Quite possibly but as I said above, I *think* it won't matter given labours lead..
I don't think Labour will win as many seats as the voting intention polls suggest, but worst case scanario Labour will have a small majority and could probably schmooze the greens and lib dem officials enough to boost them a bit further if push came to shove.
The thought of having a few reform MPs is a little concerning on the surface, but ultimately they are 99.9% tory defectors anyway, so it's a reasonably comfortable position for labour, IMO.
they are parties who will never be near power,
I do wish folks here wouldn't use phrases like that. It is too reminiscent of political thinking of about a century ago, when it was thought that funny little man with the silly Charlie Chaplin moustache was just a minor nuisance and would never amount to anything.
He and his type need watching as he is dangerous even if he doesn't yet have any political power
The way I’m reading the various voting intention polls is that reform have basically nicked approximately 50% of the Conservative vote
Not all the Reform UK vote comes from the Tories. I can't remember the precise figure but something like 30% comes from Labour.
And there is some evidence that in the last week or so Reform UK has been eating into the Labour vote - several polls have put Labour on less than 40%, that hadn't previously happened for about 2 years.
Labour’s extreme net-zero proposals put the unnecessary demands of green ideology ahead of the needs of British families For no benefit they will push our nation’s finances to a cliff edge, hike your bills and hand tyrant’s like Putin the power to blackmail the UK.
thats quite some mental gymnastics.. please tell me thats the parody account?
I’m afraid not. That’s the prime minister of the UK singing straight from Farages climate-change-denial playbook
Sunaks and Farages messaging is now pretty much identical on this and many other issues as they race to the bottom
He really is a weak and pathetic little man
I thought 70% of the UK generally supported net zero/2050, or has that changed? Why is Sunak chasing 30% and putting off 70% of people?
Not all the Reform UK vote comes from the Tories. I can’t remember the precise figure but something like 30% comes from Labour.
Depends on your sources, but yes labour will have lost some votes to reform, that goes without saying as quite a lot of labour supporters are anti-conservative, and massive anti-EU/racists, etc, but 30% seems a bit of a stretch. Either way..
The numbers don't add up from my perspective.
https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1802755485331780094
Blimey, the latest poll gives Labour a 27% lead over the Tories. That's the biggest Labour lead in about three weeks.
After dipping below 40% last week for the first time in about 2 years the Labour share of the vote is starting to nudge towards 50% again.
Jamze
Full Member
I thought 70% of the UK generally supported net zero/2050, or has that changed? Why is Sunak chasing 30% and putting off 70% of people?
That 30% tend to be of an, erm, certain demographic that makes them likely to vote Tory/reform.
The 70% wont vote for them, no matter what they Tories/reform say or pledge.
The Tories are now trying to prevent an extinction level event. Electoral wipeout on July 4th
They’re haemorrhaging their core racist pensioner vote to Farage and Reform so they’re now desperately trying to claw some back by apeing them.
It won’t work because Farage will just get ever-more extreme, so why vote for the low fat version of right wing nastiness when you can have the real full fat deal?
Its poetic justice for Johnson and the Tory Brexiteers using Farage and Co as convenient outriders to make the dog whistles they couldn’t, thinking they could just pop him back in his box when he’d served his purpose.
Instead, the right is now eating itself
****em!
Reforms manifesto is the right equivalent of the greens manifesto, they are parties who will never be near power, so have no real concern about ever having to integrate the actual policies, instead just having them down and preaching them gives them the backing of certain voters.
Not really. The Green manifesto details tax rises that will be needed for realistic improvements to public services and (obviously) the investment required in a sustainable future. The Reform manifesto ... errr ..doesn't. It's just a bunch of fantasy to fill out the paper because a single page with "we hate darkies" might be a little too obvious.
If the polls are to belived, then reform have stolen about 50% of tory (or would be tory)voters, give or take, it's split the tory vote pretty much in half.
Yes there will be some immigrants into reform from labour, but it will be low single digits in terms of percentage, if it's even quantifiable, IMO.
Was recently blocked from posting to jenrick's FB page after I had pointed out that many of his recent claims about what he had delivered for the constituency were on the spurious to porkies spectrum.
His constituency FB page are now putting up more posts which can be seen only by the anointed few.
Hustings at Southwell Minster on Thursday should be...interesting! There have been some suggestions that jenrick may be a no-show as he's on a hiding to nothing.
Leaflet delivery and canvassing continues - daily electioneering step count hit a new high of 25,200 last Friday.
Theres a real range in the polls at the moment
https://twitter.com/Beyond_Topline/status/1802761286348063079
quite a few pollsters have changed their methodology to suppress the Labour vote, for several reasons; partly to make it match movements from previous elections, partly as a result of lib dems taking their vote in seats where they are direct rival to the tories (there seems to be lots of evidence of 'get the tories out' tactical voting) and partly because of something like the shy tory vote, but for voters saying theyll vote labour but wont vote or will vote someone else!
several polls also have Starmer approval rating at record highs- hes more popular on this one that the famous vote winning man of the people Johnson at the last GE!
https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1802756468715778363
the range of the polls right now is somewhere between a 1997 style victory and Ed Davey being the LOTO plus a few Reform MPs in the commons!
accruiskeen
Full Member
^^^^^^ That graph – just for showing Liz Truss’s meteoric rise! ^^^^^^^^^^^
A proper cliff edge. Lol
Those bloody lefty bankers have a lot to answer for. 😉
Here's those 4 latest polls in a seat calculator
I think the problem for pollsters is that the post brexit elections were abnormal so the usual rules don't apply, also the tories are being squeezed by Labour,, LD & Ref, making things very hard to predict
If the polls are to belived, then reform have stolen about 50% of tory (or would be tory)voters, give or take, it’s split the tory vote pretty much in half.
Which poll?
According the Redfield & Wilton poll it is 27%
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-14-17-june-2024/
If you scroll down to voting intentions of 2019 Conservative voters 27% are currently saying that they intend voting for Reform UK.
Here’s those 4 latest polls in a seat calculator
The last of the four predicts just 19 Tory seats ffs. It's obviously a poll which is not even worth considering.
A basic swingometwr style eat calculator wont work here because of the above mentioned tactical voting effect and Reform's variable popularity.
kimbers - the 4 polls you show all appear to be from Electoral Calculus.
In the context of the 'accepted/recognised' polling companies they look increasingly to be an outlier, consistently overstating the size of the predicted labour majority.
In saying that, I could be completely wrong; breakfast time on 5th July will provide the answer.
The last of the four predicts just 19 Tory seats ffs. It’s obviously a poll which is not even worth considering.
Thats from the deltapoll one you posted earlier
Electoral calculus use a national swing and model it on each constituency based on historical votes and turnout etc, a 3 way squeeze on the tories is devastating for them in this method and that's not factoring on tactical voting! Fptp
It does seem pretty wild, BUT if we were to see the other pollsters match the deltapoll / redfield numbers then it would be a real possibility (elec calculus model has predicted the winner in every one of the last 8 GEs and been within 4% of each parties seat count
Based on the average of all the current polls elec calc are saying at this atm
kimbers – the 4 polls you show all appear to be from Electoral Calculus.
In the context of the ‘accepted/recognised’ polling companies they look increasingly to be an outlier, consistently overstating the size of the predicted labour majority.
I put the numbers from the most recent polls (all fieldwork this weekend) into elec calculus
They are
redfield Witton (megapoll 10,000)
Moreincommon
JL Partners
Deltapoll
Survations own seat prediction currently has:
Labour on course for 262 seat majority.
LAB 456
CON 72
LD 56
SNP 37
RFM 7
PC 2GRN 1
Yougovs latest looks like this
Bear in mind they recently changed their methodology to suppress the Labour vote
Without that change it would look like this
What's screwing the tories is that the don't knows, that a lot of people assumed would swing back tory are now saying reform and thats helping Labour in the red wall but even a small swing is helping lib dems in blue wall
If the polls are right & don't change (still a big if) then there's a real chance they could be reduced to a few tens of MPs
So if anything I think we’ll see a Labour majority
Nailed on surely?
Thats from the deltapoll one you posted earlier
Well if the seat prediction from that poll is 19 for the Tories then it is clearly not worth considering. Well certainly not in terms of seat predictions.
Obviously no one knows the general election result two weeks in advance, what it will be is pure guesswork. At best educated guesswork.
But certain things we can be totally sure of. For example we can be absolutely certain that the LibDems won't win the election, or that the Greens will not get 10 MPs. Or that the Tories will get less than 20 seats.
But certain things we can be totally sure of. For example we can be absolutely certain that the LibDems won’t win the election, or that the Greens will not get 10 MPs. Or that the Tories will get less than 20 seats.
But that's just a feature /bug of FPTP, once you get below 20% of the vote share you can have anything from 0-100 seats depending on what the other parties are doing and where your vote is massing
Here's those same numbers in the FT calculator
Fwiw I dont think it will be quite that bad for the Tories, not least because the 'supermajority' fear will kick in for many wavering tories in the polling booth
The ft poll of polls looks like this in their calculator which is more likely assuming the polls dont all start looking like deltapoll or redfield Witton
All it would take would be the tories to drop 2 points below where they are at the moment and a bit of tactical voting could see them entire parliamentary party fitting into a minibus
once you get below 20% of the vote share you can have anything from 0-100 seats
Sure, I get that. But the Tories have never received less than 30% in any general election in the last 200 years.
So whilst I am prepared to entertain the possibility than next month they might well, possibly, get less than 30%, I think it is probably fair to dismiss the possibility of them recieving less than 20%.
It isn't going to happen.
Nice one Burger King… 😂
Interesting that for where I live, electoral calculus is now showing LD, as is FT. GetVoting is saying labour, and stopthetories not yet predicting.
LD feels more likely based on previous local authority voting and LD run district council, so suspect LD is the tactical choice, and Tories more likely to go LD than Lab
Be interesting to know the data/algorithm that GetVoting are using that low-balls the LD share.......if they get it wrong they could skew the vote and let the Tory through
Found it really handy that the current toady MP warned us that only voting blue could stop the snp taking his seat.
I have to vote snp to counter my father's blue vote (he has early stage dementia and is fixated on the independence possibility, which he is against. In a weird logic he is voting to defeat the snp because he hates the fact they are making him have to vote Tory)
