Latest Opinium/Observer poll
Using these figures FT seat predictor says
Electoral Calculus says
but their magic money tree plan is to suspend interest payments on UK debt/gilts, that would surely lead to the markets going nuts & inflation which would be Truss levels on steroids
This is not correct.
They are talking about not paying interest on reserves for commercial banks at the BoE. It is not necessary to pay this bill at all. It has nothing to do with government spending or gilts. It's just a gift to commercial banks that keep these reserves for liquidity purposes. It is a shame that it's Farage that has said this. But he's correct in terms of technicalities.
The problem with this Truss situation is it has people generally terrified of doing anything that involves government spending, and the details are often incorrect.
It's not a magic money tree plan either.
It's worth noting this money that has interest paid on was a spill over from Q/E - so created by the BoE in the first place.
Reform will never be in power
Never say that. The orange buffoon / failed reality star is president....
The other issue is the public platform they have been given to spread their toxic views.
but I have no idea why climate change denial is permitted.
I really don't see the problem. So grimep has decided to finish off the very last bit of any credibility that he/she/they might have possibly have had by repeating some widely expressed nonsense, what's wrong with that?
If the problem is that it was designed to provoke a reaction why have so many people reacted?
Personally I welcome it as firstly it gives an opportunity to refute, if anyone can be bothered, something which many hard-right commentators and politicians constantly claim.
And secondly coming from grimep it pretty much sums up the likely validity of the nonsense.
I don't really understand why it causes so much outrage. How many on STW now doubt that there is man-made climate due to grimep's daft comment? I would suggest 0.
So Farage PLC is offering tax cuts of near double the amount promised in Mad Liz's catastrophic budget.
The thing is though, he will not be forming a government so can offer whatever the hell he likes.
Oh, they'd save £50 billion ridding us of government wastage apparently.
Sure they would, sure they would...
There is no climate crisis, worsening or otherwise, and even if there were, Britain’s essential use of oil and gas would have no effect on it.
Jesus Christ, are you really as thick as shit in real life or is this a performative act?
How many on STW now doubt that there is man-made climate due to grimep’s daft comment? I would suggest 0.
Zero, but that's not the point. It's like imagining that the nonsense that politicians come out with is meant to sway our opinion. It's not, it's for the people who are swithering. Allowing that stuff to even exist gives it some form of legitimacy. Let it exist and on the next AI learning pass that may be considered as a valid view point as STW might be considered authoritative on some subjects
Allowing that stuff to even exist gives it some form of legitimacy.
That stuff exists whether you like it or not. Banning it on STW won't stop it existing. Challenge it, ridicule it, or ignore it, would be my preferred alternative to banning it.
So much for the liberalism of middle-class liberals eh?..........BAN IT!!!
Edit: And however much you, and me, would prefer it wasn't, climate change denial is an issue in the current general election campaign.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2998klx2y0o
STW might be considered authoritative on some subjects
Okay, I think you may be getting carried away now.
ernielynch
Full Member"but I have no idea why climate change denial is permitted."
I really don’t see the problem. So grimep has decided to finish off the very last bit of any credibility that he/she/they might have possibly have had by repeating some widely expressed nonsense, what’s wrong with that?
I tend to agree with that. Grimep makes perfectly normal posts on other subjects in the forum.
When he posts controversial views it just serves as a cautionary take to people of where "doing your own research" can lead you. There is also no problem in my eyes of pointing out the error in his thinking, mind you.
I don't think he deserves the ban hammer or anything, not that, that's my call to make!
All the above is just my opinion of course.
Oh, they’d save £50 billion ridding us of government wastage apparently.
Very interesting Reform 'contract' launch. Positioning themselves to the left of Labour on the economy and to the right of the tories on social issues. Farage unashamedly calling the policies a radical alternative to the status quo. I guess now we'll see just what appetite there is in the country for radical change as opposed to more of the same.
This stuff is going to stick. Think I'll make a prediction now that he'll be PM within 10 years (assuming he can last the distance).
^^Lol, good video, never seen it before. Spot on too.
At least he hasn't learned the lessons of the far right in France and elsewhere and he's still attacking the young for their 'poisoned' minds.
Beyond reframing, though, the Rassemblement National also proposed a number of concrete fiscal policies that target youth voters. In her 2022 presidential platform, Le Pen promised to eliminate taxes for those under 30, offer financial assistance to student workers and increase housing for students.
Le Pen and the Rassemblement National haven’t convinced everyone. It remains a primarily anti-immigrant, anti-European nationalist party that often faces accusations of Islamophobia, racism and homophobia.
When Le Pen advanced to the runoffs after the first round of voting on April 10 – barely edging out far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon – huge numbers of students turned out in protest across France, declaring that they would vote “neither Macron, nor Le Pen.” Many young voters in 2022 abstained from voting altogether – an estimated 30% of those under 35 years old in the first round, climbing to a historic 40% in the runoff.
Hopefully Farage will never figure out how to reframe his xenophobic message in a 'positive' way and realise if he stops trying to appeal to racist pensioners by demonising the youth and actually offers the youth something to vote for (no matter how unrealistic) then he's in with a good chance of winning next time.
At some point our hair will literally be on fire and Grimep and the other apologists for the rapacious hypercapitalists who fund this idiocy in order to maximise profit and nothing else will still be saying there's no climate change.
My instinct is to say, of course he's allowed to say that here, freedom of speech, though etc., but then I think, hmm, maybe people said the same about sexism, racism, ablism etc. Perhaps climate denialism should be treated with the same social contempt.
There's a real problem with some young men who are attracted to Farage's kind of Andrew Tate nihilism. Trump benefits from it in the US and it's always been a feature of mainland European proto-facism.
There’s a real problem with some young men who are attracted to Farage’s kind of Andrew Tate nihilism.
I guess we won't really know for sure until after the election but around 6% of young men support Reform was the last number I could find. Not sure if the number of young women even registers so yes, if Reform has any meaningful support among the young it's from men.
That could all change if anyone realises that no one is courting the youth vote and decides to start making promises.
Hopefully Farage will never figure out how to reframe his xenophobic message in a ‘positive’ way and realise if he stops trying to appeal to racist pensioners by demonising the youth and actually offers the youth something to vote for (no matter how unrealistic) then he’s in with a good chance of winning next time.
I think for someone like Farage you can only appeal to one or the other, not both, if you appeal to the youth it upsets the older racists & appealing to old racists upsets the yourh
There’s a real problem with some young men who are attracted to Farage’s kind of Andrew Tate nihilism.
Indeed it *normalises* such behaviour and attitudes. It makes people think this is the standard of intelligence and integrity needed to hold a public office.
Go back and watch a few videos of people like Major, Brown, Blair, Ashdown, Cable and Thatcher (gasp). Whether you agree or disagree with them, they all spoke with a belief and a vision of what country they wanted and why they thought it was good for the country was a reasoned and intelligent process. Many of our current politicians look like spitting image in comparison.
20 years ago, men and women divided equally in relation to their voting left or right. I saw some stats recently which looked at the US, UK, Germany and South Korea and currently the divide between the sexes averages out at around 20 points.
Younger men being attracted to reform could just be a reflection of this general trend. In order to counter that trend one would first have to ask what over the last 20 years has caused this divide?
Let it exist and on the next AI learning pass that may be considered as a valid view point
That's a real concern. Freedom of speech etc is fine, but with a lot of online stuff being potentially shaped by AI, facts need to feature higher than, well, bollocks.
Leaving aside STW being a basis for truth and integrity
Banning it on STW won’t stop it existing.
No but it will stop the thread about the election getting derailed into a fruitless discussion about the climate. No one's got time for that shit anymore.
I think grimep's natural home must be Reform - they want to eradicate Net Zero, by just denying the science behind climate change.
If you want to understand the scientific basis of Reform’s climate policies, head to the party’s website.
It says trying to reduce CO2 emissions to tackle climate change is pointless.
“Climate change has happened for millions of years, before man made CO2 emissions, and will always change”, its website says.
“We are better to adapt to warming, rather than pretend we can stop it”, it concludes.
It also appears British people don't groom kids - nice assumption that...
Stop Child Grooming Gangs
Deport offenders holding dual citizenship. Make
child grooming an aggravating offence. Improve
safeguarding of victims and vulnerable. No bail for
grooming gang offenders.
There's so much in their contract that doesn't hold up to seconds critical thought - unfortunately most of their fans seem to ignore this
There’s so much in their contract that doesn’t hold up to seconds critical thought – unfortunately most of their fans seem to ignore this
I would guess they don't possess any critical thought so only option is to go with it.
“We are better to adapt to warming, rather than pretend we can stop it”
They are going to be shocked at what happens when the parts of the world near the equator get even hotter/wetter/unliveable, you know the bits with the brown people...
brown people are not a concern as they won't be coming over here, they won't be allowed to remember.
Turns out punching Nazi's is now frowned upon.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv225k88nldo
(according to some locals, Steve made the first move)
No but it will stop the thread about the election getting derailed into a fruitless discussion about the climate.
But that literally hasn't happened.
Only because you bought it up again!
Suspect many of you on the thread are already registered - but just a reminder to anyone who has not yet registered to vote that you have until 23.59 tomorrow Tuesday to do that online. Spread the word people.
https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote
I think this needs to be settled by a political episode of Gladiators, beamed out live to the nation on prime time Saturday night telly.
This explains why Ed Davey is doing all these stunts. He’s obviously in training.
Only because you bought it up again!
That makes no sense.
You talk about wanting to stop the thread about the election getting derailed into a fruitless discussion about the climate.
I point out that actually it hasn't been detailed into a fruitless discussion about the climate.
And your reply is "only because you bought it up again". Did you misread what I wrote or something?
There I go again not talking about climate change?
Well yeah, I'll own up! 😀
And in other non-climate related news Labour are up one point from 4 days ago in Redfield's latest poll.
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-14-17-june-2024/
I really did expect Labour's share to start falling back a bit as we approached election day but that hasn't started yet, in fact it's going in the opposite direction!
is 18% rock bottom for the tories or can they go lower ?
Polling can go lower for the Conservatives. Expect vote share on election day will be much higher. Whatever the current Farage vehicle is… it must make polling harder to get right when it’s in full bullshit flow… soaking up attention and fleeting high support with its “radical” noises and “reasonable” looking fascism.
Anyone's guess but generally polls narrow in the close run up to an election date so it's probably as low as it'll get.
Anyone’s guess but generally polls narrow in the close run up to an election date so it’s probably as low as it’ll get.
They could narrow but with Reform being the party they narrow against. With Tories continuing to also bleed support to Reform.
Yeah 18% is certainly expanding the envelope of possibility. Lower seems unlikely but hey, Tories "hold my beer" etc
Actually somewhat disappointed with the lib dem polling. Under the circumstances I'd have thought upper teens.
I'm beginning to wonder if we might see a proper Tory pile on. "Finish them!"
For the LibDems it is about increasing their share of seats, not votes. Every chance they could have a lower share of the votes, but much higher share of the seats than at the last election, if people vote tactically. Plenty of LibDem supporters will be voting Labour in seats where that is needed to kick out Conservatives, lowering their polling when the question is asked how people intend to vote.
