^^ Cheers! Well, I'm a little surprised, for some reason I could have sworn he was holed up in some "safe" seat. Whatever that means for the Tories these days.
He must be eyeing up a move to reform? No doubt they would willingly stand down their present candidate for him to move over.
Our local mp is apparently leading by 3.5%, with a bit of tactics that would be a true blue tory gone.
Come on North beds people, let's get shot of them
I’m having trouble believing it’s going to be quite that brilliant
Yeah but even if they ate 50% out and the cons get around 100 seats it's going to be brilliant watch. I really hope they do get wiped and future party's remember the downsides of populism, but they probably won't.
Treasury Minister Bim Afolami has just been absolutely torn a new one on channel 4 news about Rishi’s made up figures/blatant lies. I almost felt sorry for him. 😂
But you really didn't...
Nah. They reap what they sow. It was actually a joy to watch. He’s almost as smug as Rishi. He didn’t look too smug by the time Krishnan was done with him.
An absolute car crash of an interview. It’s almost like they’re making it up as they go along and their figures don’t stand up to even the most cursory analysis
Stoke is proper 'red wall' territory. Tory first time in 2019 (one of the 3 actually went in 2017 by a few hundred votes).
There's Gullis the human ape who I will be there in person to wave off. Jack Meredith, an utter half wit, who inexplicably graduated from the politics department at my uni. Then someone who is about 90 and has a majority of a few hundred. She's standing down though. They'll all be labour id imagine, with a massive Reform vote too.
The Tory party political broadcast at the end of Channel 4 news tonight was truly beyond parody.
Whoever is doing their comms during this campaign must have the mother of all crack habits ! 😳
Check out this absolutely unhinged nonsense…
I looked at my constituency on that pollingreport.uk web site. I was quite surprised - Labour and SNP are apparently neck-and-neck, Reform are in 3rd place (sigh) with the Greens, Tories and LibDems all in the 5-7% range. It was very comfortably held by the SNP in 2019, and the Tories were in 2nd place back then.
https://pollingreport.uk/seats/S14000081
That PEB is just bonkers! It's like the Tory comms team have watched The Thick Of It and Starship Troopers and regarded them as training videos.
I genuinely don't understand how that might appeal to anyone.
Few things in the YouTube rules I could report this for:
- Deceptive practices
- Encouraging harmful or dangerous acts
- Content produced by or praising criminal organisations
- Fictional content where the viewer is not given enough context to understand that it is fictional
Good lord that is laughably shit.
That Channel 4 interview should be how all bulls&&&&ing Ministers are handled.
F*** me. I was posting something else but listened to that O'Brien video above and what I was typing suddenly became irrelevant.
I know it's frowned upon to assign someone an inferred intelligence based upon political bias but come on? Come on?
That Channel 4 news report is a beauty
Just watching the Krishnan Guru-Murthy demolition of the idiot tory.
About half way through he looked like he wanted the ground to swallow him up. Awesome interview
grahamt1980
Full Member
Just watching the Krishnan Guru-Murthy demolition of the idiot tory.
That's the problem though. I'm sure he's actually very well educated and in all honesty is probably pretty clever BUT... like that epic O'Brien video above, if you spout stupid shizzle you are kind of labelled as a bit dim by association.
The Tory guy though, why not just refuse to go into bat when you are obviously going to have to tie yourself up in knots defending a provable lie. I dont get it?
I can only assume that they believe it is their only option.
That example is probably a ppe graduate with no other discernible skills outside of politics so he is tired to the mast come what will.
At least a number of other mp's of all colours have different backgrounds other than just being a party shill.
The Tory guy though, why not just refuse to go into bat when you are obviously going to have to tie yourself up in knots defending a provable lie. I dont get it?
Arrogance. Pure and simple.
Look at Badanoch who was demolished in a similar manner in an interview with Mishal Husain a few days ago.
Their main problem seems to be that they’re about 10% as clever as they think they are
The crazy thing about that ^^^ is that it was written by Fraser Nelson whose former political editor at the spectator is James Forsyth, Forsyth is Sunak's best friend, architect of his election strategy and the main driver for the early GE call.
The Tory civil war has begun in earnest
The crazy thing about that ^^^ is that it was written by Fraser Nelson whose former political editor at the spectator is James Forsyth, Forsyth is Sunak’s best friend, architect of his election strategy and the main driver for the early GE call.
Latest Private Eye has a clue for why Nelson might be annoyed at Forsyth. The print deadline for the Spectator was 4 hours before Sunak announced the election. Forsyth did not tip off Nelson. Consequently the cover story sent out to the Tory highbrow faithful was all about why Sunak wouldnt call a May election because it would be nuts.
Poopscoop
Just watching the Krishnan Guru-Murthy demolition of the idiot tory.
That’s the problem though. I’m sure he’s actually very well educated and in all honesty is probably pretty clever BUT… like that epic O’Brien video above, if you spout stupid shizzle you are kind of labelled as a bit dim by association.The Tory guy though, why not just refuse to go into bat when you are obviously going to have to tie yourself up in knots defending a provable lie. I don't get it?
It's ludicrous! I also don't understand the mental gymnastics required, as an obviously intelligent, well educated individual, to put yourself in that position to defend the indefensible and spout that s***! Do they not even think about what they're saying or do they actually believe it?
I could never get the point of debating club at school but I guess this is it. Got to commend him for his performance.
Goodness, I thought Krishnan delivered (and he did) but Mishal was FANTASTIC. From 2:10.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001zv25?partner=uk.co.bbc&origin=share-mobile
Do they not even think about what they’re saying or do they actually believe it?
I don't think he believed what he was saying for one moment. Dont get me wrong, all politicians have to be able to dance on the head of a needle* but there's a line where you know that by protesting that black is white you lose a bit of your own credibility which you will never get back. If only I'm your own mind.
* We want our politicians to tell the absolute truth (theoretically) but the sad fact is we dont reward the truth with votes. This is why both Labour and Torys won't tell the real truth about the fact that at current spending levels and with current policies there WILL be cuts made to public services.
A significant part of the population in every democratic country would sooner vote for a sugar coated "truth" than a hard but undeniable real truth.
We make liars of our politicians, imo anyway. That said, Sunak's absolutely blatant lie if such a whopper that it's rightly caused a controversy.
The majority of voters won't be watching Channel 4 news. The ones that do are well aware of what ****ers the tories are.
Just looked up the great Desmond Swayne, 'my' MP, and as I expected he is still on for 48%. A tory will simply never lose where I live but pity Reform don't appear to be standing as they would have taken some votes from him.
if all the Lab voters did the right thing the cons would be gone…
But, but, but Starmer something something, magic money tree, something, Galaxy, something, Diane Abbot etc.
It’s ludicrous! I also don’t understand the mental gymnastics required
Because he's been told "do not, under any circumstances agree that these figures are made-up" by Tory Head Office. That's all that he's got to do for the 5 minutes he's on. How stupid he looks comes a very distance second to them.
Because he’s been told “do not, under any circumstances agree that these figures are made-up” by Tory Head Office.
I haven't seen an updated list for ages but wonder if there's a new one and whether Bim's name's been added to it. Who am i kidding - they're pretty much all on the list for something, and if you don't want that coming out then put a clean shirt on and go out and repeat the phrase until it sticks.
Yeah, they might have dirt on him, but to many MPs its a tribal thing, they'll go out and defend black/white all day if they think there's a ministerial post in the next reshuffle or that Leader thinks they deserve a pat on the head.
Bim probs thinks he did all right. Kris got his "gotcha" interview, everyone's happy.
if all the Lab voters did the right thing the cons would be gone….
Maybe they are waiting for Labour to do the right thing before giving them their vote?
You know when you’re in an altercation and then later you think of some clever remark you could have made but didn’t? That’s Starmer right now. Too slow and wooden to speak up at the right time and desperately trying to rewrite history.
Bim is the version of Chris Philp they wheel out for financial matters.
You know when you’re in an altercation and then later you think of some clever remark you could have made but didn’t? That’s Starmer right now. Too slow and wooden to speak up at the right time and desperately trying to rewrite history.
It's taken you two days to come up with that? 😉
It’s taken you two days to come up with that?
😂
Nearly forgot. John Crace in great form again. The last paragraph sums the weasel Sunak up perfectly.
For his part, Rish! has temporarily abandoned the campaign for the D-day commemorations. He read out Montgomery’s address to the troops from 80 years ago about sacrifice and service. Something Sunak knows little about. If war broke out, you couldn’t imagine Rish! being in the first wave of the Normandy landings. He’d be at home on his computer betting on a crash in the German stock exchange. Keeping it real.
100%.
Just looked up the great Desmond Swayne, ‘my’ MP, and as I expected he is still on for 48%. A tory will simply never lose where I live but pity Reform don’t appear to be standing as they would have taken some votes from him.
I dunno If there really is a tory wipeout on the level some polls are predicting Swayne might be one of the the few MPs they have left so will end up in the shadow cabinet by default.
Imagine having that loon on the morning media rounds..
https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/1797888334905344321?s=19
Yep, he is one of the many MPs that most people have probably never heard of and has been an MP for 25 years. Maybe once he has a bit more visibility even those that vote for him may change their mind.
Stuck in Tory land!
But, these forecasts don't account for Reform, which if them being only 2 pts behind Con overall, would make this would look very different.
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That polling Binners linked to.
I live in the Scottish Borders and they're predicting a Labour Gain, marginal.
- Labour 34.22%
- SNP 32.48%
- Conservative 27.12%
- LibDems 5.71%
Labour have usually sat in 3/4 place (see below), so if it's anywhere near right then the Tories are in for an utter wipe-out.
- 2019 4.7%
- 2017 8.6%
- 2015 4.9%
- 2010 10.2%
And in today's unsurprising news
Racist shitebag continuing to donate to racist party
First ipsos poll of campaign out & theyre methodology is well regarded and usually very accurate predictor
Labour 43%C
Conservative 23%
Reform 9%
Greens 9%
Lib Dems 8%
Others 8%
1,014 GB adults interviewed by phone
Fieldwork dates 31st May - 4th June
Tories still <100 seats and fieldwork straddles farage announcement, so expect a reform bump
That polling Binners linked to.
I live in the Scottish Borders and they’re predicting a Labour Gain, marginal.
That can't be right though, surely. I can see a swing away from Lamont to SNP as it is so marginal but could Labour really come form nothing to 34%? Unless there are that many pro union voters who won't vote SNP but still want Torys out.
Lamont shoved a leaflet through my door yesterday which pretty much said that SNP votes will help secure labour victory in Westminster. I was surprised he was being so helpful in directed me towards a tactical vote!
First ipsos poll of campaign out & theyre methodology is well regarded and usually very accurate predictor
I really like their prediction, especially 2 Green 0 Reform, as well as 89 Tory, and I really want to believe it, but I am seriously struggling to believe that LibDem support will be a third less than it was at the last general election.
@franksinatra plenty of tactical voting going on in Scotland since the indyref usually on a pro or anti Indy basis.
Apologies I know there's another thread for this.
It’s ridiculous that a party with only 43% of the vote can get such a massive majority.
And that a party which sees its share of the vote reduced by a third should more than quadruple its amount of MPs.
I am seriously struggling to believe that LibDem support will be a third less than it was at the last general election
The national Labour vote is inflated by people who'd rather vote LibDem (or Green) but know what needs doing to keep the Conservatives out of their seat, likewise the LibDem national support is deflated for the same reason. Tactical voting. This should still mean more LibDem MPs though, as people who'd rather vote Labour (or Green) know what to do in the target LibDem seats to put the Tories out to grass.
And that a party which sees its share of the vote reduced by a third should more than quadruple its amount of MPs.
I don't think the party in question would disagree, but given the limitations of FPTP they play a good game at hyper-local targetting; if you're not in a target seat then you won't see them.
It’s ridiculous that a party with only 43% of the vote can get such a massive majority.
The Tories had an 80 seat majority with 43.8% of the vote in 2019. FPTP gives such results. An actual majority I.e. over 50% of the votes is rare. Labour has never had this ( came close in 1951) , the tories have but not for many decades - pre second world war
it certainly is a crazy system you can be on 20%- no seats, 25% 50 seats- 30% 300 seats!
I think it made sense when politics was local and MPs were primarily answerable to their constituents and not the party.
Now candidates are primarily reliant on their party and the national campaign. This is where things become ridiculous.
If the opinion polls of the last year prove anything it is just how unnecessary tactical voting is to keep the Tories out.
They are so deeply unpopular that nothing can save them.
I see Douglass Ross has forced out an unwell MP to get his safe seat, classy
https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1798636341586284835
Not one single opinion poll since the first week of October has put the Tories above 29%, not even complacency can save them.
We had all this nonsense the Tories might win with the London Mayoral election, Sadiq Khan easily won.
Probably true, but it's become tactical voting to absolutely put the boot in.
I wonder if there's yet a reverse TV to come into play, and whether some will not particularly be enamoured with the last 14 years but baulk at an absolute annihilation scenario, and return to CON or even TV for them in some areas so they aren't.
The FPTP to ludicrous levels; I was explaining to my kids who both get to vote for the first time.... you could have in theory a 3 party system where each gets give or take 1/3 of the votes, except one party gets 650 votes more than the others, across the whole country. But if that was 1 vote per constituency then with an almost exact third:third:third split one party has all 650 seats and the others have none. They couldn't believe it.
In an alternate multiple universe that's happening and in one of them all 650 seats are tory.
The latest YouGov poll has switched methodology to MRP which disadvantages Labour a bit but still gives them a 21% lead.
It is also the first post Farage announcement poll and it gives Reform UK a scary 17%.
*Edited to give the correct Labour lead.
if you’re not in a target seat then you won’t see them.
Very much this, Davey's strategy is to focus their limited resources on seats that are winnable for them and with the exception of Shefield Hallam I believe these are all currently Tory held.
As a smaller party with no mega-donors bankrolling you and operating in a FPTP system this what you need to do if you actually want more MP's.
Lib Dem voters also tend to be a fairly switched on bunch (hence why Voter ID probably actually benefited them slightly despite them being against it on principle) and therefore very likely to vote tactically if they can see the LD's are not a realistic contender locally.
We may not need every vote for Labour to win, but I think we really do need the Tories to have as big of a kicking as possible. Why? Because it will shake up politics, and we need that. Since Johnson they have simply not turned up, they've been pissing about half-heartedly chasing old right wingers and not bothering to run the country. A historic wipeout will send a message that this isn't acceptable, it doesn't work and politicians need to pull their finger out. They need to be found out by the electorate.
Yeah, everyone needs to get out and vote. With what they’ve done in the last 14 years, but particularly the total chaos since Johnson came in to oversea the Brexit disaster he created, I’m amazed there’s anyone left who is still going to vote for them. Maybe lots of Tory voters will simply stay at home? Probably not though. They seem bloody-minded like that. So everyone else needs to counter that
Absolute electoral annihilation is exactly what they so richly deserve for the damage they’ve done to this country. Quite a few of them belong behind bars!
Is there a reliable tactical voting site?
One that I looked at advised labour even though they are not canvassing in our area.
Lib Dem voters also tend to be a fairly switched on bunch (hence why Voter ID probably actually benefited them slightly despite them being against it on principle) and therefore very likely to vote tactically if they can see the LD’s are not a realistic contender locally.
If they are that switched on they will realise that Rishi Sunak has zero chance of winning on July 4th.
I totally agree with desirability of a huge unprecedented Labour majority, and for two reasons - firstly it dramatically reduces the chances of the Tories winning in 2029 and secondly it will put huge pressure on Keir Starmer to deliver.
The only thing I question is the feasibility that the Tories might win.