Yup, as I thought ..
Much discussion of "the flounce" and no discussion of the fact that the SNPs own growth commission report shows that "project fear" was right on the button economically, and that an independent Scotland would lose 13Bn a year (about 10% of the budget and the cost(ish) of the NHS in Scotland).
We would have massive austerity (an order of magnitude larger than that from westminster), the pound, and no EU membership until we balanced the books (10 years under the SNPs very positive growth projections, so maybe 25, maybe more).
The SNP can't win the economic argument (and they never could without lying), so they've taken to flouncing and behaving like a teenager instead of trying to fix the mess they've made of schools and the NHS (both of which the SNP has decided needed smaller % rises in budget than their english equivalents under tory rule over the last 10 years).
I'm not a brexiter or a tory, but that doesn't mean I have to support nationalist grievance over good government.
Its almost like the SNP is scared of making things better with the powers that they have. Wonder why?
Yesterdays 'stunt' done it's job. People are now talking about it and the media are reporting on the reasons why they done it which they wouldn't be doing otherwise.
History has a way of repeating itself.
Eat the Pudding How long will it take the UK to balance the books?
You do realise that after independence other parties will be available? Not only that, your vote will make a difference to the way the country is governed, unlike now.
Or is your point that Scots are incapable of voting for the correct party?
Eat the Pudding, and how well will the UK do after Brexit? Scotland will take a hit via both approaches. the EU one though gives hope of a turn around, staying with the UK is crash and burn.
I honestly believe that if the SNP switched their focus from joining the EU to joining the EEA then it would convince many No voters of the benefits of independence.
Most of the advantages of EU membership (and fewer questions about whether we would get in or not) and control over various matters that are important for various regions in Scotland. Fishing and agriculture being the most obvious examples.
I forgot to mention, assuming the UK ends up going for a hard border, EEA membership doesn't require membership of the customs union so there would be no need for a hard border between England and Scotland.
If the UK decides to stay in the Customs Union (good luck squaring that circle) then there is also no need for a hard border.
Agree BruceWee.
Eatthepudding, the NHS in Scotland is a mess? really?
Yes yes, I'm sure there are other parties and many valid ways to make Scotland an economic powerhouse in no time flat which invalidate the predictions of the SNPs own (much sat on, delayed, edited, reedited, rescued from the leopard and finally published) growth report.
They just didn't think to include them.
The report confirms that GERS is good data (hi zoomers :O), and tries to say how we would get out of the hole Scotlands finances would leave us in if independent. It fails, except in listing of other small countries which aren't us and don't have the SNP in power.
For extra giggles, lets look at the benefits of devolution using the example of Scotland controlling welfare benefits and taking powers from the evil westmonster controlled DWP shall we?
Oops, we can't, because the people who were going to set up a whole country for £400million in 2 years can't set up a partial benefits system in 4 (and have hidden the cost). They've actually asked the DWP to keep being evil to the people of Scotland. http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14885035.SNP_criticised_for_leaving_welfare_powers_with_Whitehall/
But by all means, lets get angry about the lack of devolution.
That's the problem gordihmor. There are parallels between Brexit and Scottish independence. Another ref will be along, which provides me with an 'either or' scenario, with regard to unions when it should have been both.
People do not berate the EU for having article 50 and not negotiating prior to Britians formal request to leave, yet were expecting Westminster to lay out plans for a relationship with an independent Scotland long before the Indyref.
We also blame Brexiteers and the UK for not knowing how a border with Ireland will look. If we vote to leave the UK, no doubt the UK will also get it in the neck for not having a border with Scotland sorted out.
Any uncertainty over currency or trade arrangements between Scotland and rUK will undoubtedly be the UK's fault as it it is with Brexit.
As mentioned 1000 new SNP members may not be significant if they were all ready supporters. Does this mirror that there may be people who were floaters who may now vote Indy?
I can weigh up the options, but hope it is not made harder by vocal flip flopping by the usual suspects, whose BS I have no wish to trawl through to make a decision.Henry McLeish is someone I have respect for on the subject, and would happily swap his opinions in The National, for the drivel spouted by Kevin McKenna in his Observer opinion column.
McLeish sums up feeling to his own party that largely mirror mine. Ineptitude, and weakness. A semi decent proper leader would be trouncing to Tories at the polls just now. I certainly cannot vote for them right now.
PS. The UK as a whole also has a deficit, but not one which would prevent it from joining the EU. (Like Scotlands)
PPS. Brexit will be bad, Scottish independence would be worse. If flouncing from a "union" and separating yourself off from your best customers and strongest partners causes economic hit, then why would compouding that with departure from a longer lasting more integrated union (in addition, not instead of) suddenly bring benefits?
PPPS I didn't say the NHS in scotland was a mess, only that it was underfunded (given less cash) relative to England. Same with education. Same with councils (given and 8%? cut on the back of 2% austerity from Westminster).
Stop getting outraged and watching the flouncers and instead watch what they're trying to distract you from.
EEA membership wouldn't impede trade with England but regulatory alignment with the EU in many areas would allow us to minimise disruption to businesses that rely on EU trade.
I'll stop now as I'm getting dangerously close to 'have cake and eat it' 😉
BruceWee
I don't think I've said anything about the EU apart from the fact that I don't want to leave.
Regardless of the details of future relationships I'm just pointing out that brexit plus scottish independence is not stupidity halved, its stupidity squared,
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">eat_the-pudding</span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">....PPPS I didn’t say the NHS in scotland was a mess, only that it was underfunded (given less cash) relative to England. Same with education. Same with councils...</span>
Thanks for highlighting the need for the people of Scotland being able to make their own decisions.
As for the SNP's growth report, if it didn't work out we can soon fix that by voting for a different government.
I'm not going to argue the economic case because the economic forecasts are political conjecture. Just about every country seeking independence from the UK has been subjected to a barrage of doom and gloom, you're too wee, too unsophisticated, too stupid, etc.
Shows me any independent country that is seeking to come back under UK domination because it cannot handle its own economy.
How about this country which was supposedly incapable? Does it want back?
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PPPS I didn’t say the NHS in scotland was a mess
Errr....
The SNP can’t win the economic argument (and they never could without lying), so they’ve taken to flouncing and behaving like a teenager instead of trying to fix the mess they’ve made of schools and the NHS
I'm in Athens, the taxis, bin men, trams and busses are all on strike, called with a few hours notice, extended with no notice. It could be worse...
“History has a way of repeating itself.”
Id rather not follow the Balkan model if I’m honest!
Regardless of the details of future relationships I’m just pointing out that brexit plusscottish independence is not stupidity halved, its stupidity squared,
I don't know what to tell you then, you seem to have made up your mind and that's it. Most of the arguments you've used have been based on SNP policies. I and others have pointed out that the SNP is not necessarily going to be in charge of the transition (and if it is it will be a very different SNP to the one that currently exists, much like Theresa May, Nicola Sturgeon won't be able to square things with all the factions)
Any arguments you've used that don't involve the SNP, the border between England and Scotland for example, I think I've made a good effort to show possible solutions that you haven't argued against yet.
Ignoring SNP policies, what are your objections?
Eat the Pudding The Scottish government has been in negotiations with the UK government for over a year on the EU withdrawal bill and despite some progress ended up with no agreement. They then took this position to Holyrood and got the backing of Labour, Libdems and Greens to withhold consent. David Mundell then told them that withholding consent would be deemed to be consent in the UK government's eyes.
So we move onto Westminster where they are told by Mundell again that there will be time to debate and put forward amendments after the EU withdrawal bill comes back from the Lord's. What happened 15 minutes for debate entirely used up by one minister no SNP members get to speak so none of their amendments can go forward and when you raise a point of order about this you are advised to consider suicide.
It's not much of a union is it?
To be honest I think the walk out was a good means of publicising a UK government using parliamentary procedure to stifle debate. I wish the SNP had done so a lot sooner
GERS figures do give some guidance as to how an independent Scotland might fare but they are a measure of how Scotland's economy is doing in the union. Ian Lang set GERS up specifically to weaken the argument for independence
I’m in Athens, the taxis, bin men, trams and busses are all on strike, called with a few hours notice, extended with no notice. It could be worse…
Norway, Sweden, Denmark...
It could be a lot better too.
“Death has culled quite a few of them and will take even more before another referendum/election,”
Well, that’s pretty repulsive of you. FFS.
Although I’ve seen the same said by remain voters in the EU farce.
“History has a way of repeating itself.”
Id rather not follow the Balkan model if I’m honest!
The way things are going! I am no longer of the opinion that it isn't an outcome. Ireland didn't leave the Union peacefully. A hard brexit where the ports and airports shut down is going to end VERY badly.
piemonster
“Death has culled quite a few of them and will take even more before another referendum/election,”
Well, that’s pretty repulsive of you. FFS.
It's a pragmatic reality affecting the likely % of support for independence, not my personal desire. One of the dead was a personal friend.
I do not wish death on older voters - I'm in that demographic. 🙂
Just signed up as a paid member of the SNP. And I voted no in the Indy Ref!
The sooner we're split from the UK the better
epicyclo, you realise that all decisions about how much money is given to NHS schools and councils are already made by the Scottish Parliament don't you? How does that highlight the need for "the people of Scotland to make their own decisions".
Unless you mean make better decisions? (I would concur)
Nobeerinthefridge. Good point, I was thinking about NHS and education funding when I wrote. Lets say that the SNP has decided to spend proportionately less on the NHS and education that the tories in England. But while education is a complete mess, the NHS seems to be doing relatively OK, apart from the whole A&E and cancer waiting time thing.
BruceWee "the arguments you have made are based on SNP policies" I know other policies are available, but they don't change the economic facts. If there was a good economic basis for independence would the SNP have spent years trying to find it and then published the report on a bank holiday Friday and then lied about its contents (Sturgeon saying that its economic guidelines would have "prevented austerity").
Gordimhor The GERS figures are put together by statisticians working in Scotland, employed by Nicola Sturgeon. They were the central plank of the book of dreams put out by the SNP before the 2014 referendum. They are also the central plank of the more realistic but still a bit dreamy growth report. They are equivalent or better than any statistics you see about any countries economic performance.
Just because something is an estimate doesn't mean its not accurate.
Yes might be polling higher than it was at the start of the last campaign but there are far fewer Undecideds to win over now. The vast majority have already decided and are unlikely to be swayed by more campaigning or by unfolding events.
Of course, there are those for whom the SNP offer the "wrong kind" of independence, many of whom also believe that Corbyn will sweep to power and usher in a new era of left-wing politics. They are, frankly, delusional. Corbyn has already shown that he has no appetite for leadership and the English majority would rather eat their own livers with a blunt spoon than vote for him.
Then there are those who can most kindly be referred to as suffering from Stockholm Syndrome. Visible on this very thread. As Epicyclo suggests, many of this group can never be un-conditioned as they've suffered too long. Thankfully a younger demographic has grown up more aware of both long-past and more recent history. A long game would suggest delaying any further referendum but then there's the question of how much damage will need to be undone.
I notice no-one has jumped in to defend the SNPs failure on benefits outlined above as a triumph for devolution, and an excuse for more?
Also, in the context of this thread, this is quite interesting;
https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/1006968577101090816
Every government has failures. The Scottish government has them now and will have them in future whether independent or not regardless of what party is in power. Unless you can show me a flawless government then it has nothing to do with the independence question.
" stockholm syndrome" Oh the arrogance
Then there are those who can most kindly be referred to as suffering from Stockholm Syndrome.
That's the kindest you can manage? You sound nice...
I notice no-one has jumped in to defend the SNPs failure on benefits outlined above as a triumph for devolution, and an excuse for more?
How is the introduction of Universal Credit going? Such changes aren't easy… and your point is clearly utterly irrelevant.
5,000 new SNP members since yesterday.
Patrick Harvie is giving Sturgeon a hard time about the Growth Commision at First Minister's questions. Labour and Conservatives are staying well away from even mentioning what happened yesterday for some reason.
Then there are those who can most kindly be referred to as suffering from Stockholm Syndrome.
That’s the kindest you can manage? You sound nice…
I'm in a good mood today.
There also seems to be a lot of deflection here based around the fact that pointing out something bad about the SNP should not reflect on the cause of independence itself.
Somehow the fact that the SNPs long thought out economic arguments are mince, and their actions (on education the NHS, local government, child benefit, WASPI women and benefits overall) defy their rhetoric, should not be included in a decision about independence which would involve either more or less radical people with "different" ideas.
This feels (from my point of view) exactly equivalent to the premise that brexit could be a success if only those "remoaners would shut up", or if it was being handled "better" by TM and the tories, or "if only nigel, boris or putin or [insert numpty here] was in charge!".
Its all mince. All the time.
Some ideas are so bad that theres no way they can be put right by a change of party, personality, or left/right leaning.
Nationalism sucks. As I said earlier, the SNP and Tories are two balls in the same nutsack.
Scotland could be independent. but it would be poorer for it and that means less money for the NHS, schools and civil society. The list goes on, and includes pretty much everything that independence supporters seem to value when they are threatened by the tories.
So whats the cure?
Shut up about burning bridges and try to build a better society now.
Independence may come someday, or not, but what if we created a better society regardless?
the SNP and Tories are two balls in the same nutsack
that's the best thing I've read on here in ages!
If there was an indy ref tomorrow I'd probably vote yes as things stand just now but these bitter old men moaning on about historical treaties or events and gumph just makes me want to have nothing to do with it.
Good summary by John Crace in todays Guardian
SNP gifts May a hissy-fit to take her out of the limelight at PMQs
The walkout might have been right up there in futility with the Lib Dem hissy-fit of 2008 – over an EU referendum, of all things – but the long-term fallout may be more damaging. The sight of several hundred entitled Tory backbenchers making it clear they don’t give a toss about anyone in Scotland is not going to play out well north of the border.
> delete <
kelvin
The SNP asked for more devolution, and despite going on at length about how the DWP benefits system is a disaster for the people of the UK (particularly the disabled), they have passed up on the ability to improve it for the people of Scotland.
Their rhetoric says that people are dying because of the DWP (which I believe) but they can't deal with the powers for a few years extra and thats "Irrelevant"?
Your dictionary is broken between Iridescent and Irritable.
Please note that I also said that the SNP claimed a few years before that they could set up a whole nation in two years for a few hundred million quid. I think that point is very relevant.
And the 5000 extra SNP members are exactly that, @ binner post.
eat_the_pudding
...There also seems to be a lot of deflection here based around the fact that pointing out something bad about the SNP should not reflect on the cause of independence itself...
That is because we are not a political movement for perpetual SNP government, but a movement for independence ie self governance.
We will not necessarily be voting SNP after independence. The SNP is a tool towards that end.
bigjim
...bitter old men moaning on about historical treaties...
The "historical" treaty is the basis of the Union. It lays down the relationship between the 2 countries, and it is important to know what it says. It still applies so it is not some dusty forgotten piece of parchment.
The dissolution of the treaty joining Scotland to England is an avenue to independence and can be done without Westminter's permission. (Similar to how a spouse can instigate a divorce without needing the consent of the other.)
The other is going on bended knee to the Tory govt and begging humbly for their permission to leave - after seeing how the Westminster govt has contemptuously treated the Scottish parliament since 2014, there's not much chance of that.
I'm not sure what you're saying. I don't think anyone has said that independence will result in immediate improvements for Scotland, everyone has said that things will get worse in the short term.
You yourself have said that things will get worse regardless of whether Scotland becomes independent or not. In your opinion it will be even worse if Scotland becomes independent but you haven't explained how except to point out how bad the SNP are.
As many have said, the SNP post-independence will not be the same as the current SNP. The post-independence Labour, Cons, and Lib-dems will also not be the same parties as today. Pointing out the SNP's record and the problems with the Growth Commission (and there are many) is not relevant to whether Scotland will be better off ten years after independence.
The difference is that with independence Scotland will be able to decide it's own future rather than being along for the ride with policies whose primary aim is to benefit the south of England.
I spoke to a unionist who said he voted no because he didn't believe Scotland could be trusted to vote for a good government. If you agree I think you should say so, so that at least we know where you are coming from.
Eat The Pudding has to be an alias!
8 years of forum membership and not a single thread started? Just trolling in the replies all the time 🤔
Eat The Pudding has to be an alias!
Pudding comes after your main course, such as Jambalaya?....
epicyclo, you realise that all decisions about how much money is given to NHS schools and councils are already made by the Scottish Parliament don’t you?
Nope it is not. Scotland is given a fixed pot of money to spend ( ignoring the piddly amounts it is allowed to raise on its own behalf) NHS is something like half the budget. The scottish government simply cannot put significantly more money into the NHS - it has no way of raising it without huge cuts elsewhere.
