Labour have never been 20 points ahead, ever. And never will be, ever. That claim was always nonsense.
Wrong! From wiki:
The 20 points ahead bit was hyperbole anyway presumably but I 100% guarantee if Corbyn was in charge with these numbers in this situation he would be being absolutely pilloried.
Wrong!
Fair enough... perhaps there is far more to learn from Blair in opposition than I'd like to admit to as a leftie. Easy to forget how well he did if you weren't a supporter. I'm obviously in denial.
They have to make a dent in the support for Johnson, and win voters, a hell of a lot of them, away from his party, directly, themselves.
And they also have to retain their existing voters. I also wouldnt be so quick to count out the libdems they could bring themselves back into play but need to decide what they stand for. Admittedly this is undermined by the centrists having abandoned them and seemingly working on turning Labour into their replacement.
You think that Starmer is moving Labour policy to be ‘slightly more centre than the rabid right’? If so, you’re out of your head.
Lucky I didnt say that then. However it is the inevitable end point of your theory of chasing tory voters. We have seen it over the Blair years where the political "centre" shifted rightwards and can see the end results in the USA.
I can only imagine what the Corbyn obsessives like binners would be saying if he was still around.
Not overly difficult since binners is still blaming him for everything despite the glorious leader being in charge for the best part of a year. I think its binners tory tendencies coming through with the habit of always blaming the last labour leader.
You don't "chase tory voters" you engage with the electorate.
I find Starmer a bit of a damp squib but it really doesn't matter at the moment. Even if Labour had a charismatic leader I doubt the polls would look much different. In times of crisis, like a war (or a pandemic) the public naturally become more cautious. In such circumstances incumbent governments invariably get returned. The collective thinking is let's get past this trauma first before we start reinventing the wheel.
The initial poll bump for Labour was obviously the public saying they see Starmer as a safe pair of hands (and by definition, Corbyn a danger). The subsequent stalling in the polls could be seen as Starmer having made as much ground as was possible in respect of re engaging labour voters that had been turned off by Corbyn but it could also be reflective of the fact that, as I mentioned before, people become more cautious in the face of very real and present dangers.
I am not surprised that the polls have levelled off. In normal times the calamitous way the government has governed would see them suffer more in the polls but these aren't normal times.
The mood will be different in a couple of years time and then we'll see what Starmers made of. My money is on a much closer contest but still returning a Tory govt.
This is groundhog day for Labour. They are on the same long road back as they were after the Michael Foot debacle and it took Kinnock, Smith and the duo of Blair and Brown to achieve their aim. (The Tories trod a similar path post Thatcher).
I find Starmer a bit of a damp squib but it really doesn’t matter at the moment.
Likewise. The country might come to see him as a “safe pair of hands”… but I’d be surprised if that was nearly enough to become PM in modern times.
My money is on a much closer contest but still returning a Tory govt.
Mine as well, assuming the current two party leaders. We could be talking about Starmer having “done his job” before rather than after that election though… and someone else taking the reins for the campaign proper… and a new leader trying to bounce Labour into government. It’s not likely, Labour don’t turn on their heals as regards leaders quite like the Conservative party do. And there is always the chance of more unforeseen events that might dominate that election yet… it’s years away.
How may people were listening to what the shadow cabinet secretary was saying about the awarding of government contracts? Were you? It got absolutely zero media coverage.
You also have to look at the media that is either compliant, client, or under their owners orders for ideological reasons.
The subsequent stalling in the polls could be seen as Starmer having made as much ground as was possible in respect of re engaging labour voters
What is also mentioned further up the thread is that you really do need a libdem party that can take seats from the tories where labour can't. The wonders of our voting system eh?
I don't see much change in 'popularity' until the worst effects of the pandemic are over, the unfolding disaster of Brexit is being hidden by this and client journalism in action, but they won't be hidden forever.
As for the departed former 'dear leader', Binners, move on. As for the 'lefties' here, you seriously need to take a look at yourselves if you still arguing the case for corbynite politics after 2015-2019.
you seriously need to take a look at yourselves if you still arguing the case for corbynite politics after 2015-2019.
We need something beyond 'Corbynite' politics. Corbyn was on the right path but was way behind modern thinking on fiscal and monetary policy, industrial reform, climate change and automation, and he didn't even mention electoral reform or regional devolution.
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1360262882466942983?s=19
This is only 1% above the election results 2019.
This comes with all the terrible Tory baggage from the last 12 months - as we all know too well.
Until people have as big of problem with the onslaught of neolibralism (you know the thing that breeds the poisonous status-quo) and as they do socialism nothing is going to stick.
What is evident though despite the Blairite contingent that has been punted by the likes of Ian Dunt (especially during the Corbyn period) - has been demonstrated (as expected) to be causing the contraction of Labour to something built around focus groups, big funders - whilst culling the left. Seriously did Starmer really thing this was the correct direction for a socialist party?
Things can change quickly but I don't think Brexit (as expected) is likely to make the world fall in and with the vaccine doing its thing - can only see the Tories doing better and better.
Yup, voters splitting towards other opposition parties (as they often do years away from an election). Re-slicing the cake does nothing. Unless the opposition parties can win people over from the Conservatives, they are in government for the foreseeable. Starmer (and Davey and Sturgeon and others) need to convince voters to abandon the Conservatives, and take seats of them.
This is only 1% above the election results 2019.
Yeah but one point better than Corbyn is clear evidence that the party is going in the right direction.
Aye, that’s a shit show
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1359832577461338116?s=19
Yougov have a similar story
It's only going to get worse if the vaccine roll out has the desired effect and lockdown walk d progressively relaxed over the spring... Just in time for local, mayoral, Scottish Parly elections in May
Terrible polls. Boris is like teflon. But Labour have to keep pushing the Tory corruption line & if the media don't -point that out aswell.
Have any of you actually stopped to think that you live in a country where most of the people actually want a Tory government?
Just because we don't want that doesn't mean it will happen.
The people who want a tory government won't care how badly the government has done over last 12 months as a) they may not really realise it and b) they think any other party would have done just as badly so they are quite happy with the tory party they have got. They even got Brexit done remember (and again they probably don't realise what a mess that actually is)
Do the majority really want the Tories or does a first past the post system fail when there are more than two parties. Labour Greens LD PC and SNP substantially fishing in the same pond of voters?
SF not taking up their seats doesn't help either
I can't help thinking Labour - with the help of the press - have completely missed the chance to highlight/capitalise on the failings of the government over Covid and Brexit over the last 15 months.
Makes me despair.
Makes me despair.
You shouldn't: Mandleson is back to make everything better.
kerley
Free MemberHave any of you actually stopped to think that you live in a country where most of the people actually want a Tory government?
Well no, on account of in the last "landslide victory" they got 43% of the vote. More people voted for left-of-centre parties, as has been the case in every election in my lifetime.
(I mean, also, I live in Scotland where the tories got 25%)
Have any of you actually stopped to think that you live in a country where most of the people actually want a Tory government?
I do think England gets the government it votes for. I can understand that is frustrating for many.
The people who want a tory government won’t care how badly the government has done over last 12 months as a) they may not really realise it and b) they think any other party would have done just as badly so they are quite happy with the tory party they have got. They even got Brexit done remember (and again they probably don’t realise what a mess that actually is)
My anecdotal view is that people very much underestimate the “Labour would have worse” sentiment out there.
"I do think England gets the government it votes for. I can understand that is frustrating for many"
Imagine what England would look like if Scotland goes for independence. Whilst the SNP wiped out Labour North of the border, at least their seats in the UK parliament form part of the opposition. Without the SNP the Tories position will strengthen considerably.
I do think England gets the government it votes for.
It quite clearly doesn't if you look at the numbers. FPTP really skews the results
Have any of you actually stopped to think that you live in a country where most of the people actually want a Tory government?
That's clearly not the case, unless you want to find me an election where 51% of those eligible voted for them. The fact that this has never happened says more about the legitimacy of our 'democracy' than it does about the support for any one party.
It quite clearly doesn’t if you look at the numbers. FPTP really skews the results
England gets the government that has gerrymandered the voting boundaries to benefit itself and not its opposition.
FPTP is a proper poison in our process.
That’s clearly not the case, unless you want to find me an election where 51% of those eligible voted for them. The fact that this has never happened says more about the legitimacy of our ‘democracy’ than it does about the support for any one party.
Yep, we are using a crappy system but we are using that system nonetheless and in that system more people vote for the tory government than any other party and those people are happy that thy did and would do so again tomorrow.
Whining about the system is not going to change that.
Whining about the system is not going to change that.
No, but electoral reform is, and pointing out we need electoral reform is the first step.
Usually when polled about specific policies the policies of the Tory party come out pretty badly and smaller parties like the Greens do very well. There is a desperate need for electoral reform but it won't happen without a big push from the people and obviously it is against the best interests of the ruling party. I actually think Labour would do well out of it and should be phasing it in.
Blair and Brown could see how the landscape was changing in a globalised and de-unionised world. They were conscious of the fissures that had been created by Thatcher in the working class block vote. She'd won over Essex Man and the south east, (the first red wall to fall).
In a way, Labour's decision to ditch the New Labour moniker was Labour's own internal Brexit, an attempt to return to the halcyon days when Labour repped for the working classes. They didn't realise that the fragile alliance that had existed between progressive intellectuals and the working classes no longer existed.
Cohesive class identities have been replaced by a nationalist identities. The word 'Labour' doesn't mean anything any more. It's an anachronism, a 20th century idea that is no longer fit for purpose.
Changing the party name to New Labour was a brilliant move. It implicitly recognised that things had changed and implied a readiness for the new century. Owning the word 'New' in the political lanscape was a masterstroke as well, it implies an inbuilt capacity to refresh, to re-boot and adapt. Ditching the name in order to drape yourself in the flag of socialism was a trap Labour made for themselves, a fateful decision that condemns Labour to never being new again.
Ouch!
Ouch indeed. I was okay with Starmer having a go at leader (especially after the Corbyn mess) but as I said at the time each leader should be given 6 months to prove they have it and it is clear that Starmer doesn't "have it". Most of the public probably don't even know who he is!
No point waiting another 4 years to find out he wasn't the right choice for leader...
Another party might keep him place for now, come what may, and then quickly replace him with about 10 months to go before the next election. Labour don’t do that though… they take a lifetime to change a leader… only do so when they feel they absolutely have to, rather than in an “opportunist” fashion, and sometimes don’t even do so after losing a general election.
Even his cheerleaders on here seem to have gone a bit quiet. Things must be bad.
Who are his cheerleaders? Dazh voted for him I think, but other that, people keep popping in to defend him against nonsense claims, but I don’t think he has any huge fans here, or people that think he can win the next election. I think he’d make a good solid caretaker PM, but isn’t inspirational enough to win a general election. He was probably still the best choice of the candidates to get through the initial post Straight Left years.
They were discussing Starmer this morning on Five Live and the first comment stated the obvious:
Now that the Tory’s have become UKIP, when Boris said ‘* business, he really did mean it.
Now that the party has abandoned the majority of the self-employed to their pandemic fate, largely unsupported, and the combination of Brexit and the Covid response has *rd over SME’s big-time, surely that’s a whole constituency of traditional Tory voters there to be courted?
Given that the Labour Party has to convert Tory voters to Labour to be in with a chance of winning an election, there’s an open goal there.
Starmer needs to start being far bolder now. There’s surely many traditional Tory voters who are open to being persuaded now the party they’ve always voted for is more concerned about having a ‘war on woke’ than it is on supporting business, commerce or education. Plenty must be pretty despairing.
The Tory’s under Boris are hardly very aspirational, are they? Unless your only aspiration is to get rid of foreigners
The tories on here seem to like him very much. I can see why 🙂
Well you can’t win an election without them
All the small businesses, independent traders and budding entrepreneurs who were courted so assiduously by Thatcher and whose confidence Blair and Brown retained have been thrown under the bus by Boris. This is a government of graft and corporate socialism, not a government of opportunity, (except for the few). As far as business is concerned, they have become the Red Tape Tories.
Small and medium sized business owners are likely to be the most highly vocal and committed actors in the next few years and Labour needs to engage with them, the Tories have their 'levelling up' bullshit which we all know is bullshit. Labour needs to steal that terrirory and project themselves as the party of opportunity for all, the party of enterprise,
The 'war on woke will wear thin soon. There have been no protest marches or statues toppled for months yet the Spectator and the Telegraph look for any opportunity to graft BLM into any headline, any false equivalence or spurious relation to a storyline will do. The right are desperate for an enemy and at the moment their enemy is staying elusive, playing rope a dope and controlling the narrative. Jenrick passes legislation to protect statues that have already fallen, (statues are so last year bruv).
The "woke generation" will mature by the end of the decade and their social values will become more mainstream. There's no battles to be won for Labour there, the moral argument has been won and has incubated itself into the body politic. That's not to say the right won't continue to bear it's teeth but those teeth are getting pretty long and mostly belong to ageing football hooligans who will be riding mobility scooters in a few years time. The far right just doesn't have the purchase it had with the youth of the 70's and 80's.
So you're right binners, Labour should embrace business both as a political strategy and because the success of business in vital to Britain's future. Being pro business simply isnt a left and right thing anymore...........comrades.
There’s surely many traditional Tory voters who are open to being persuaded
Persuaded how? Remember these are tory voters who like tory polices and intentions. Why would they switch to Labour unless Labour is offering something similar?
The Labour voters that switched to Tory in last election (mostly because of Brexit) could go back to Labour though as supposedly they always voted labour but I doubt they actually understood why as somebody who truly believes in Labour intentions could absolutely never, ever vote tory.
'Labour intentions' seem a bit unclear. Are we witnessing rejection of a theory of value to develop a new flag waving capitalist-socialist party? Smith and Ricardo would be fascinated. People will need to be persuaded that Sir will manage capitalism better than the true blue capitalist party. But one of Sir's first decisions was to back the landlords against the tenants and he happens to be financed by big business so we can be reassured. When they end furlough and start the evictions and the sackings I sincerely hope the LP's response isn't this tactical deadly silence or 'Fight for the right to fair evictions and sackings right now!'
NB to digress, the extra £10k pa the MPs get for WFM, appears to have disappeared as an issue whilst they vote for hungry kids. Strange that. Do all MPs get it?
the extra £10k pa the MPs get for WFM, appears to have disappeared as an issue
You might want to check your facts about what that actually was, rather than swallow the headlines. (Not that it won't be open to abuse by some, I'm sure).
But I'll agree that the tactical silence has been a disaster. They need to set out a clear vision of a non Tory alternative, and challenge the government and the right wing press at every opportunity.
Persuaded how?
I thought inkster laid out their proposition clearly. Some people voted Tory as they think it’s good for the companies and industries they work in. The opportunity is there to convince them that if that is one of their primary motivations when voting, they’d be better off voting for Labour.
I’ll add that another motivation for many was very much about identity, especially Britishness and/or Englishness. Hence the silly flags in videos thing (and the red rose before that). Some people very much avoided Labour as they were seen as being more interested in injustices abroad than people struggling at home (not true, but many perceived that). The Novichok response didn’t help with the perception of Labour “not being on our side” either. And, of course, the Tories capitalised on Brexit in order to seem more “British Bulldog”… that might not be as easy in a couple of years time, but Labour need to avoid Tory laid elephant traps marked Brexit in the meantime.
Just checked, it's only till March (atm).
So today's the day! Kier is going to finally tell us what the big idea is. Anyone care to speculate on what it might be? I'll start, it'll be some sort of reboot of Miliband's benign capitalism fantasy, with a strong helping of Kennedy-esque 'ask not what your country can do for you' stuff. Looking forward to being inspired 🙂
https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1362310888942800898?s=20
Good article here
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2021/02/voters-across-world-have-rallied-around-their-leaders-and-boris-johnson-has
Many governments in have seen voters rally round during pandemic
Successful vaccine rollout has been the major win for Johnson, yet he's still only a few pts up
