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Survation showing a predicted 17pt lead in Hartlepool.
If you read Survations analysis of the data
Its still all about brexit (BXP are only reason it didn't fall in 3019)
https://www.survation.com/new-phone-poll-places-conservatives-on-course-for-hartlepool-win/
That Survation poll findings are appalling.
The general view has been that the Labour vote in Hartlepool will increase compared to 2019 but the Tories will win the seat due to the 2019 BP vote going to them.
The Survation poll however puts the Labour Party on 33% which is less than Labour received in 2019 when it got 38%.
That is actually worse than the Labour Hartlepool vote of 2015 when Ed Miliband was leader. In 2015 the combined Tory-Ukip vote would have given a 14% lead over Labour.
If Survation is correct, and obviously it is a very big if, then Labour really is going backwards.
Clearly some very serious questions need to be asked but equally some very serious answers need to be provided.
In 2017 the UKIP vote in Hartlepool completely collapsed to less than half of what it had been in 2015, it all appeared to have gone to Labour whose total vote grew massively to 52%.
What has gone wrong this time? Especially as this time, like 2017 but unlike 2019, Labour has accepted the EU referendum result.
Also it should be remembered why David Cameron agreed to an EU referendum. It was simply for two reasons. Firstly he was certain that Remain would win, and secondly because he believed that it would once and for all neutralise Ukip, which along with the Referendum Party before had caused serious electoral damage to the Tories.
If Ukip was causing Labour more electoral damage than it was to the Tories David Cameron would of course have never called a referendum on EU membership.
Obviously something has gone wrong. Although I personally believe that the Labour Party completely lacks the capability to understand what it is.
Anyone with their own Hartlepool predictions?
As with most things in life, if you're after predictions, look what odds the bookies are giving.
I shoved a tenner on the Tories winning Hartlepool a few weeks ago. The odds I got were 1.9/1. The labour odds were about the the same, so the bookies thought it was an even shot
Just had a look now and the odds are
Tory's 1/4
Labour 5/2
So the bookies can only see one result and they're rarely wrong
Obviously something has gone wrong. Although I personally believe that the Labour Party completely lacks the capability to understand what it is.
Does anybody? I bet even the Tory's can't fathom how they're getting away with all this. The Vaccine rollout must account for a lot of it, but still...
I really just don't understand this country any more. Its absolute madness. Turkeys not just voting for Christmas, but to have 12 Christmases a year, one a month
Well, my postal votes are in. Labour for mayor and councillor. No doubt I’m only delaying the inevitable NIP revolution that will come about when they help turn Hartlepool blue… but I’ll just have to live with that on my conscience.
VOTE LABOUR
Surprised nobody mentioned KS on the Today program at 8:15 this morning.
He came across really well, I thought. A contrast with Corbyn and Boris who won't even go on.
I don't think you can draw many conclusions from Hartlepool. All that proves is if you call people elderly idiots they don't vote for you next time which won't be a surprise.
I was surprised they let him roll out a pre-prepared "five things" election pitch without interruption. Was that because of the elections, or as balance ready for letting Liz Truss speak to the nation without correction or fact checking unfiltered?
Yep, my postal votes done too. Labour for local council, which is one of the ones (Bury North) they reckon could go blue, and for Mayor, there can be only one, really...
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He came across really well, I thought. A contrast with Corbyn and Boris who won’t even go on.
I thought the same. Got the balance right, I thought. Came across very well. Are people listening? Doesn't look like it
I bet even the Tory’s can’t fathom how they’re getting away with all this.
If you believe the Survation polling, it's still all about Brexit really. BORIS GOT BREXIT DONE and they still love him for it, who cares that he's an amoral, lying, corrupt scumbag (or that Brexit is/will be largely a disaster)?
I’m in Hartlepool too Kelvin, and I’ll also be voting Labour, like you I suspect it may be in vain.
I think the Tories are riding the wave of optimism as COVID subsides, Labour, and Starmer particularly have to hold their nerve, as brexit starts to bite and people start to suffer this govt’s ineptitude will become very evident in the next 2-3 years, that will be Starmer’s moment.
[ I'm not in Hartlepool ... I don't get to vote for an MP this time around ]
Doh!
A decade of Tory austerity should've put the tories to bed, but brexit & covid have reset things.
The tory party is no longer seen as the austerity Pro EU party of Cameron, they have morphed into the Brexit party of big promises under Johnson
A similar trick to the one Blair pulled with the seemingly daft yet simultaneously genius use of the prefix 'New'
Question is what can Starmer do to counter it?
I still think the corruption angle is the right way to go, after the vaccine bounce fades the investigations will still be ongoing & the ones we know of now are only in the public domain thanks to Cummings
I'm sure there's plenty more we don't know of.
[ If I was, I'd still vote for the Labour candidate, although he was a poor choice for the seat, IMHO ]
Obviously something has gone wrong.
Hartlepool would've gone to the Tories in 2019 if it wasn't for the split vote. Johnson promised them he'd get Brexit done, and he has, support for Johnson is high. the Tories will win.
It's pretty straightforward, I'd imagine the Labour party understand it well enough.
I thought the same. Got the balance right, I thought. Came across very well. Are people listening? Doesn’t look like it
There are a lot more people listening than if he hadn't done it IMHO.
I still think the corruption angle is the right way to go, after the vaccine bounce fades the investigations will still be ongoing & the ones we know of now are only in the public domain thanks to Cummings
The Tory's are presently doing everything in their power, some of it extremely dubious (described by one senior civil servant as Orwellian) to block freedom of information requests. They don't want the details of the dodgy PPE contracts etc to be in the public domain. For obvious reasons.
I don't think people are too bothered by who paid for his expensive curtains, but thats going to be different when the full scale of the cronyism is made public and the billions that have been handed over to their mates. Theres also the private contracts given to American healthcare providers to fulfil NHS rolls (an opportunistic privatisation by stealth) as well as the tens of billions spaffed on the test and trace debacle
Question is what can Starmer do to counter it?
Exactly what he's doing. Just look competent, keep his head down for a few more months until politics goes back to normal.
At the next election Britain will be crippled with debt and the current government will get the blame for that. Plus all the unforseen disasters that will inevitably come along.
I'm not suggesting an easy win for Labour, but voters have short memories and the situation at the next GE will be far more favourable to the opposition parties than the current situation.
I really just don’t understand this country any more
I understand it, it is a simple number game.
A higher % of older voters (majority are tory) than even 30 years ago and those older people are more likely to actually vote. To get the over 50's to switch from Tory is very, very difficult.
Add in loss of Labour seats in Scotland in same period and it becomes very difficult for Labour
Blair may have done it but even that was over 20 years ago and that was when Tories were in doldrums after 20 years combined with him selling out.
It is not really something a Labour leader can do much about at is totally at the mercy of how bad the tory party becomes (in the eyes of their voters) before they would rather have another party
Starmer was on 5LIVE this morning and doing his best not to give a straight answer.
I was disappointed.
Starmer was on 5LIVE this morning and doing his best not to give a straight answer.
I was disappointed.
Maybe the questions didn't have straight answers that would have been palatable to voters, or his party or conducive to winning elections. This can't be the first time you've heard a politician dodge questions and stick to the message. It's their job.
Maybe the questions didn’t have straight answers that would have been palatable to voters, or his party or conducive to winning elections. This can’t be the first time you’ve heard a politician dodge questions and stick to the message. It’s their job.
It may be their job but it doesn't give the impression they are someone you would trust although with Johnson as PM I am not sure if that really matters.
Although I personally believe that the Labour Party completely lacks the capability to understand what it is.
That's because they're too busy trying to think of verbal gymnastics to avoid saying that nurses should get a pay rise of more than a tenner a week. They'll also be very busy thinking of ways they can blame Corbyn for losing a seat he won twice even though he hasn't been leader for more than a year and is no longer a labour MP.
I know you can't trust TV voxpops... but the BBC ones had people still mentioning Corbyn. These were voters whose voting pattern has gone...
Labour > UKIP > Brexit > [ Conservative ]
I understand it, it is a simple number game.
A higher % of older voters (majority are tory) than even 30 years ago and those older people are more likely to actually vote. To get the over 50’s to switch from Tory is very, very difficult.
Getting the over 50's to switch from their usual type of biscuits is very difficult.
Let alone re-orienting their (misguided) political leanings.
but the BBC
The same BBC which this weekend published a long read piece by its political editor saying Johnson had never lied?
You can't trust vox pops because the broadcaster has a range to select from, red-top journalism innit.
Very true.
Getting the over 50’s to switch from their usual type of biscuits is very difficult.
Let alone re-orienting their (misguided) political leanings.
The amount of effort the parties spend pandering to the retired demographic suggests they are only too willing to shift their vote. Or at least enough of them are to change a government.
The same BBC which this weekend published a long read piece by its political editor saying Johnson had never lied?
The article did not say Boris never lied. It very much played down and excused his lying and missed out verifiable facts that show he is a liar.
I know you can’t trust TV voxpops… but the BBC ones had people still mentioning Corbyn.
You can't trust Voxpops, but it still feels plausible to me. The Socialist Campaign Group have increased in size. Corbyn may be gone but his wing of the party could get a leadership candidate nominated easily and then who knows what the members would do? Historically they'd vote for the hardest left candidate every time, do voters think the Corbyn era has changed that?
Personally, I think it's irrelevant and the disincentive to vote Labour is a less complicated than that. The party attacked the northern voters last time so those voters won't vote labour this time. Simple as that. A bit childish, but many of us are. Even in this thread - if you call people "misguided" do they warm to you? I don't think so. I think it puts people's backs up.
Reminds me of a friend organising her wedding. Compiling the guest list she started with all the people she didn't want at her wedding. By the time she'd got to the finish she was short of guests. Half the Labour party don't want votes from the Brexiteers, or the elderly, or the stupid, or people who didn't have higher education, or working class people or lower middle class people or mail readers or van drivers, or privately educated people, or rural people. Who's left?
Having said all that governments lose elections rather than opposition's winning and crippling debt is going to make the next election a nightmare for the Tories plus whatever unforseen disasters occur before then. Keir's doing all the right things, he understands winning. *And* he's the first Labour leader since Brown who actually wanted the job! That counts for a lot.
The amount of effort the parties spend pandering to the retired demographic suggests they are only too willing to shift their vote. Or at least enough of them are to change a government.
Looks like Labour have a bit of work left.
Combined with polling research from Ipsos MORI suggesting that turnout in 2019 ranged from 47% among 18 to 24-year‑olds up to 74% among over-65s.
I know you can’t trust TV voxpops… but the BBC ones had people still mentioning Corbyn.
Unfortunately a lot of peoples only engagement with politics is to 'know' that the labour party has been taken over by pro-EU, marxist terrorist-smpathisers a few years ago.
How labour changes this narrative, god only knows, when a lot of people are only taking in three word slogans. Its a massive job
I don't think Hartlepool (which I think Labour will lose by quite some margin) is any kind of benchmark. It would have gone Tory last time out if the Brexit Party hadn't stood a candidate which hoovered up a massive chunk of the Tory vote, gifting the seat to labour
With them now out of the picture, it looks like this was just postponing the inevitable
From my perspective its (sadly) been a good few years since Labour resembled an electable political party. I hope Starmer can galvanise them into a better political unit, but I've not seen much evidence of this yet tbh. Meanwhile the Tories do pretty much as they wish.
From my perspective its (sadly) been a good few years since Labour resembled an electable political party.
But what is it about the tory party that resembles an electable political party?
Strange isn't it! Perhaps its the leadership issue thats been at the heart of the problem. Labour have really struggled with a series of leaders who lacked credibility in a very big way (and thats saying something next to Boris).
I think Labour have looked so chronically bad that the Tories get away with what they want. Tories are a bit more willing to put a face on to keep their jobs. And their leaders have probably been more acceptable to the general public.
But what is it about the tory party that resembles an electable political party?
Probably the fact they don't more or less depend on ~60 seats in Scotland to gain a majority. Add (say) 45 seats to Labour's tally every GE and they start to look *very* electable. Plus that's (say) 45 extra people on their benches to select capable front benchers from.
Starmzy is doing the exact opposite of what he needs to do which is attack the Government at every opportunity. The silent, long-game has done nothing useful.
He's not offering the alternative either.
Sure, In the wake of Brexit we are still divided in many ways but you have to offer the electorate a better alternative. Labour are hiding from this. It's a farce and it needs tackling. If you create enough reasons to dislike the Tories (and there are loads) and offer the solutions people will come, eventually.
Keeping silent is part of why we are in this mess now.
Stop wasting time on the small scale corruption and look at the big scale failure of neolibralism. (Of course being centrist makes you a bit blind to this.)
Build back better sticks unfortunately for Labour.
But what is it about the tory party that resembles an electable political party?
Probably the fact they don’t more or less depend on ~60 seats in Scotland to gain a majority. Add (say) 45 seats to Labour’s tally every GE and they start to look *very* electable. Plus that’s (say) 45 extra people on their benches to select capable front benchers from.
But Labour was synonymous with Scotland until recently. That should have been a strength not a weakness. Are we starting to see the same thing happening in the North of England? Complete collapse of the Labour party? Is this all down to dwindling trades union membership and a Labour party thats struggling to adapt?
Starmzy is doing the exact opposite of what he needs to do which is attack the Government at every opportunity.
The focus groups say otherwise. I'm inclined to trust them.
The focus groups say otherwise. I’m inclined to trust
You're joking? The focus groups are clearly not leading Labour to any sort of victory any time soon. Evidently.
The recent flag stuff was born out of focus groups.
https://twitter.com/meadwaj/status/1389474536953892865?s=19
Are we starting to see the same thing happening in the North of England? Complete collapse of the Labour party? Is this all down to dwindling trades union membership and a Labour party thats struggling to adapt?
Does any party have a "right" to exist? If Labour can't offer anyone an alternative that's worth voting for they'll go the same way as the Dodo.
You can have a "clarity" that most of the electorate reject. Then what?
Boris forever 🙂
Hartlepool would’ve gone to the Tories in 2019 if it wasn’t for the split vote. Johnson promised them he’d get Brexit done, and he has, support for Johnson is high. the Tories will win.
It’s pretty straightforward, I’d imagine the Labour party understand it well enough.
The RW vote was split in a similar way in 2015 (between the Tories and UKIP) yet Labour returned a much increased majority in 2017.
Indeed, but that spilt is over now. Johnson has prioritised uniting the UKIP/Brexit/Tory vote above all else, to win and keep power. Well done him. This is one of those seats where that plan is still delivering beyond even the 2019 high point for him, now that Farage has stopped running candidates in Labour held seats... and there are more seats like this that could well be lost the next time they are contested... which brings us to...
Boris forever
and attempts to counter this with...
The recent flag stuff
The recent flag stuff
Some of the discourse about Hartlepool is getting hysterical, particularly that James medway tweet, the town is still going to vote on brexit grounds
Hopefully a labour loss will nudge labour towards the progressive alliance at the next election.
Yes, people prefer:
'Britain is still great, foreigners are bad, racism doesn't exist (or if it does it's fine), 'wokeism' is the greatest threat the nation faces, authoritarianism and corruption are also fine, selling NI down the river is no problem'.
And anyone who isn't ok with any of that is a traitor/commie.
Yes, people prefer:
Labour do need to challenge it better and ask what exactly is patriotic about having the latest mistress dress up in a union jack dress whilst shovelling taxpayers cash at her.
What is patriotic about not funding school meals whilst letting property developers off their fair share after they provide a donation.
What is patriotic about allowing people to cash in on a pandemic whilst people die.
The problem is the tories are being allowed to portray their narrow self interested idea of history as the norm and the plastic patriotism of wrapping themselves in a flag as being properly patriotic.
yet Labour returned a much increased majority in 2017.
Yes, lots of young first time voters turned out (many who couldn't or didn't vote in the referendum) then those same voters didn't come out in 2019, mostly as Labour's own report highlighted; they were put off by Corbyn.
Bung into the fact that the Labour candidate has been heavily criticised by the local press (something exploited by the Tories) that he was part of a NHS project that looked to close Hartlepools hospital. It's the Tory's to loose.
Yes, people prefer:
‘Britain is still great, foreigners are bad, racism doesn’t exist (or if it does it’s fine), ‘wokeism’ is the greatest threat the nation faces, authoritarianism and corruption are also fine, selling NI down the river is no problem’.
And anyone who isn’t ok with any of that is a traitor/commie.
Weird isn't it. No matter how much you call voters racist they still don't warm to you. Maybe calling them peados will win them over?
Starmer's trying to get the message across that appearing to like Britain and like British people is a prerequisite for power in errrr... Britain.
‘Britain is still great, foreigners are bad, racism doesn’t exist (or if it does it’s fine), ‘wokeism’ is the greatest threat the nation faces, authoritarianism and corruption are also fine, selling NI down the river is no problem’.
You are me may not think like that but it is clear that a lot of people in England do think like that, enough of them to ensure the Tories are safe.
How do you sell them something that is the opposite of what they believe in?
Weird isn’t it. No matter how much you call voters racist they still don’t warm to you. Maybe calling them peados will win them over?
Racists don't like being called racist? I am surprised. Many of these people have/continue to enjoy literally some of the most privileged economic conditions in human history, and yet they want to pull up the ladder behind them, but get outraged at the idea that that might be seen as somewhat selfish.
Starmer’s trying to get the message across that appearing to like Britain and like British people is a prerequisite for power in errrr… Britain.
Yes and it's highly convincing and is really doing the trick. Doing a tribute act of a nativist populist is great and all, but maybe people need something more?
How do you sell them something that is the opposite of what they believe in?
I don't think you can. Eventually I suppose people will get tired of populist rabble-rousing with no substance, but it has a lot of mileage in it yet I think.
I'm starting to think that before things change we're going to have to watch all sorts of shit unravel that most people don't appear to give a toss about, but will do once it happens
The violence properly kicking off again in NI, maybe a full blown trade war with the EU (which a certain amount of people would actually love!), Scottish independence.
Until then it looks like a majority is prepared to deliver power to the flag-wavers indefinitely, because they don't like foreigners
For once I agree with binners
I hate to say it, but their culture war on 'woke' and anything remotely progressive is paying dividends for them by the bucketload. They learnt the lessons of Brexit, that there is a majority in this country who are racist reactionaries and Brexit has emboldened them to now display that openly, in fact to celebrate it (you lost! Get over it!).
I don't know how on earth labour counter this. There seems to be no appetite outside the major cities for what they're selling
maybe people need something more?
I'm sure they do need more. But *not* less.
I don't think Kier is saying liking Britain and liking the people in Britain is *all* you need to win.
I think he's saying it's the absolute bare minimum.
If you were selling sausages door to door. Would your pitch be "You're racist. You're a bit thick. You've erroneously bought our competitor product before because you're misguided and unsophisticated. Frankly most of the people in you're area are like you."?
No, you'd pretend to like and respect them and their neighbourhood. That might not be enough. They might still prefer your competitor's sausages. But the bare minimum is not to name call and tell them how awful they are. And if you do the name calling after they've failed to buy your sausages, they will remember it next time you're in town.
That's where Kier comes in.
because they don’t like foreigners
Well, if that's the motivation then there's a clear win for Labour right there. Boris has already given everyone in Hong Kong the right to immediate UK residency and then (after 5 years) citizenship. Literary millions, vastly more than ever came here from the EU.
That'll change as soon as the first one of them actually turns up though
If Labour can’t offer anyone an alternative that’s worth voting for
And yet they did just that in 2017, and then the labour rightwing set off the nuclear bomb of AS and we are where we are. I would have some sympathy with Starmer for the thankless task of trying to reebrand a party which is now widely regarded as being anti-semitic, but given his actions since then it's pretty clear he probably thought the AS ruse was a good way of getting rid of Corbyn so he could take his place. The faster labour disappears and creates space for something else the better.
There seems to be no appetite outside the major cities for what they’re selling
Oh, there is.. but not enough to win back those "not the big city" seats. You don't have to win over everybody, just enough people in the seats that matter. Attempts to do so are being heavily resisted by those that don't want Labour to shift towards these voters... they will only accept moving those voters towards Labour. Well, at this point in the election cycle, listening rather than preaching is what is required. Is Starmer doing this, and learning what needs to be done? I don't know. I agree with those that point to 2017 as galvanising support for Labour (that was my first Labour general election vote ever), and that positive lessons can be learnt from that... but likewise, in 2019 Labour got it wrong... and not just on Brexit... and not just as regards a leader that most of Britain didn't want to see in office... but also on their overall policy platform. Starmer has changed tack on Brexit... he's distanced himself from the previous leader... and now he has the hard bit to do... build on the 2017 manifesto and dump much of the 2019 one. That is going to cause even more howls of anguish when he does... one of many reasons to keep quiet about it where possible for now.
Yes, lots of young first time voters turned out (many who couldn’t or didn’t vote in the referendum) then those same voters didn’t come out in 2019, mostly as Labour’s own report highlighted; they were put off by Corbyn.
So you agree that there are/ were significant factors beyond Brexit, which was my point. As dazh notes, in 2017 Labour managed to offer a prospectus that was attractive enough to overcome a very strongly Leave tendency, in a constituency which was considered at-risk and had a combined UKIP/ Tory vote much larger than Labour's in 2015. I'm afraid the narrative that Labour will lose on Thursday because of Brexit (combined 2019 Tory/ BP vote) doesn't hold much water.
I don’t know how on earth labour counter this. There seems to be no appetite outside the major cities for what they’re selling
This video makes some good points. Sidestep the media, Facebook etc. and just use the LP membership and supporters to make positive change directly within the communities that they want to help.
If a Labour candidate can point to specific good things that the party has helped achieve in the community it will carry gravitas. It would show that the party does care about them and is willing to put time, effort and money in to making their lives better whilst out of power, imagine what they can do when in power.
But what is it about the tory party that resembles an electable political party?
Three word slogans.
Short buzz phrases.
People love stories.
Johnson's jolly antics.
Any publicity's good.
It's pretty straightforward, I’d imagine the Labour party understand it well enough.
So it's all about Brexit and the Labour Party understands that well enough?
The obvious question in that case is why choose a candidate who was kicked out by voters, in one of the highest leave-voting constituencies in the UK, after he had spent two years doing everything he possibly could to undermine and stop Brexit?
And of course the other obvious question is why did more than half the voters in Hartlepool vote Labour in 2017? Wasn't Brexit an issue in 2017?
I think I'll stick to my original conclusion that the Labour Party is clueless and completely fails to understand what were once traditional Labour voters.
And to be fair why should they understand? The present Labour leader went to a fee paying school in one of the most affluent areas in the UK before embarking on a high-flying legal career. The original Labour leader named Kier started work down a coalmine at the age of 10.
Since Blair's ascendancy the party has been comprehensively hijack.
just use the LP membership and supporters to make positive change directly within the communities that they want to help
The "just" word there is important. All that is going on here, but it isn't enough. Why? Because who is in government matters, and restricts or boosts what can be achieved within communities. We need a change of government, and there is no sign that doing good things locally really moves voting intentions nationally enough. "Just" working hard to make positive change locally is not enough.
All that is going on here, but it isn’t enough.
Out of interest what kind of things are going in your area? Do you have any idea why they are not effective?
Oh, there is.. but not enough to win back those “not the big city” seats. You don’t have to win over everybody, just enough people in the seats that matter. Attempts to do so are being heavily resisted by those that don’t want Labour to shift towards these voters… they will only accept moving those voters to Labour. Well, at this point in the election cycles, listening rather than preaching is what is required. Is Starmer doing this, and learning what needs to be done? I don’t know.
Pretty much this, except I *do* know, Starmer has 100pc learned the lessons that needed to be learned and is doing *exactly* the right things. Might not be enough, but it's the best course of action every time.
I’m afraid the narrative that Labour will lose on Thursday because of Brexit (combined 2019 Tory/ BP vote) doesn’t hold much water.
Yeah, Brexit has already happened. Voters aren't famous for expressing gratitude with their votes once they've got what they want so this isn't directly about brexit. (*If* we think voters do use their votes to express gratitude then all the other parties might as well give up now because vaccine.)
I honestly think it's a primitive reaction to all the name calling during and after the least election/brexit campaign. I think Labour have used abuse to push the red wall voters out of the labour 'tribe'. I'm sure there are a many other factors but that's the one that explains why the numbers are split on Brexit lines when Brexit has already happened.
But it's only one seat. The GE is real test and that's probably two years away at least.
Do you have any idea why they are not effective?
Well, as an example … climate change and flood resistance/ prevention/ mitigation … amazing stuff going on locally, including by some very good Labour folk, but they can’t do anything to encourage change of land use by the largest property owners … just one example. Take any area of life you want… who is in government matters. And people seem happy to have locals working hard for change, without voting for national politicians that can help with (or even not obstruct) that change.
If a Labour candidate can point to specific good things that the party has helped achieve in the community it will carry gravitas. It would show that the party does care about them and is willing to put time, effort and money in to making their lives better whilst out of power, imagine what they can do when in power.
No quarrel with that but at a local level *all* the capable councillors, independent or party members will be doing exactly this. So there's no differential between party there unless you think party makes a difference to individual councillor's performance at a local level. (Which I can tell you from personal experience it doesn't.)
I *do* know, Starmer has 100pc learned the lessons that needed to be learned and is doing *exactly* the right things
And what is that, exactly?
And what is that, exactly?
Keeping his head down. Not getting typecast as a moaner. Opportunistically opposing and criticizing where he can (which right now isn't often). Doing painstaking market research to make sure he's doing and saying the right stuff. He's telling the party a few home truths. He's got rid of a few wasters and he has a few more in his sights. He's drawn a very clear line between the party and the Campaign Group. He wins on PMQs most weeks and *always* picks the right topic to go with.
Boris has two years to trip up big style. He's going to have landed us with crippling debt. Unless you think he's supremely capable he's highly likely to trip up over the next two years or some random event could overtake them. Now is a terrible time to be in opposition. Two years time is going to be a great time to be I opposition and that's (probably) when the GE is.
When you're opponents are mocking your leader for putting too much effort and emphasis on winning the next GE you know he's got it about right!
Best Labour leader since Blair, and one of the two overwhelmingly best party leaders in the UK. The last three leaders have been holding the party back. (Two of them didn't even want the job!!!) This time it's the party holding the leader back and that can change with a decent example.
flood resistance/ prevention/ mitigation … amazing stuff going on locally, including by some very good Labour folk, but they can’t do anything to encourage change of land use by the largest property owners
No quarrel with that but at a local level *all* the capable councillors, independent or party members will be doing exactly this. So there’s no differential between party there unless you think party makes a difference to individual councillor’s performance at a local lever. (Which I can tell you from personal experience it doesn’t.)
Yes I agree, but no other party has the membership numbers that Labour do. If Starmer could tap into that with say 10 high profile but achievable projects a year, as well as funding from the membership (even £1 for each project from every member would be a huge amount to work with, probably around £400k.)
In Kelvins example, what if Labour bought the land with money from the membership and built the flood defence (as a pure example, I've no idea on the scale etc.) with the help of large numbers of members from outside that constituency it's something that no other party or individual councilors could achieve.
Doing something like that would be easy to promote locally, would unite the membership as it's not a left or right thing it's just the Labour party doing what it exists to do as well as basically being bulletproof from criticism from the Torys. It would also then open channels of dialog between Labour and the community away from the attacks about being Remainers,wokist urban elite or whatever.
what if Labour bought the land with money from the membership
I don't see the owners of the grouse moors selling to Labour for a good price anytime soon.
Yes, lots of young first time voters turned out
Wasn't this shown to be largely a myth?
Well, if that’s the motivation then there’s a clear win for Labour right there. Boris has already given everyone in Hong Kong the right to immediate UK residency and then (after 5 years) citizenship. Literary millions, vastly more than ever came here from the EU.
Some foreigners are considered more palatable than others, and 'sticking it to China' plays well.
Brexit was always going to result in more immigration from non-EU countries, but most Brexiters didn't/don't want to hear it.
Yes I agree, but no other party has the membership numbers that Labour do. If Starmer could tap into that with say 10 high profile but achievable projects a year, as well as funding from the membership (even £1 for each project from every member would be a huge amount to work with, probably around £400k.)
In Kelvins example, what if Labour bought the land with money from the membership and built the flood defence (as a pure example, I’ve no idea on the scale etc.) with the help of large numbers of members from outside that constituency it’s something that no other party or individual councilors could achieve.
Doing something like that would be easy to promote locally, would unite the membership as it’s not a left or right thing it’s just the Labour party doing what it exists to do as well as basically being bulletproof from criticism from the Torys. It would also then open channels of dialog between Labour and the community away from the attacks about being Remainers,wokist urban elite or whatever.
You've changed my mind, that would be incredible. Mind you, £400k doesn't get you far with public works, but yeah, call it a tenner each and surely that would win a marginal with the right project.
I don’t see the owners of the grouse moors selling to Labour for a good price anytime soon.
Pick another project then, there must be things that need to to be done in marginal seats somewhere.
Funding professional representation to oppose development would win you a marginal seat in some places - whatever. The specific project isn't important, the point is mass membership gives you substantial budget that can be focussed on one or two marginals and none of the other parties have that.
Keeping his head down. Not getting typecast as a moaner. Opportunistically opposing and criticizing where he can (which right now isn’t often). Doing painstaking market research to make sure he’s doing and saying the right stuff. He’s telling the party a few home truths. He’s got rid of a few wasters and he has a few more in his sights. He’s drawn a very clear line between the party and the Campaign Group. He wins on PMQs most weeks and *always* picks the right topic to go with.
Ah, so nothing actually effective then. Thanks for clarifying.
Ah, so nothing actually effective then. Thanks for clarifying.
What's your definition of effective?