it depends on how much of the local election result was anti-Starmer rather than actively pro-reform.
Bit of both would be my guess, more leaning towards pro-reform. I imagine Burnham would be seen as more left wing than Starmer so even less palatable to Reform voters. Also this is not the cosmopolitan high rise Manchester Burnham is normally associated with. This is Greater Manchester, outside the M60 and firmly left behind working class territory. Ex mining and industrial, fertile Reform ground.
He would have had more chance in Gorton and Denton.
Is it just me or does it now look like Andy Burnhams return to Westminster and route to the top job has all been organized and coordinated in advance, and they were just waiting for the right moment?
Seeing as nobody has actually triggered a leadership election yet, it does look like they're all hanging on until he's gone through the process of becoming an MP again. That would suggest that the reward of top jobs, for their cooperation, has been agreed in advance.
Makerfield going to be the most media mad by-election ever?
demographics skew reformy tbh: old, white, very little ethnic minorities once red wall
https://locara.co.uk/constituency/makerfield/demographics
theres a real chance, reform could take it, as long as they manage to field a candidate not as unlikeable as Matt Goodwin
local elections there saw reform get about 50% of the vote vs labour on 30ish
question is how much of that was anti Starmer? (prob a fair bit)
interesting to see what the greens do- they were 10% at the locals
Makerfield going to be the most media mad by-election ever?
Feel sorry for the locals. You aint going to be able put the bins out without having half a dozen journalists appear and start asking who you support.
Local council are probably eyeing up the paper/cardboard recycling facilities and seeing if they can get it emptied more frequently.
Given how this is already panning out, I reckon it’s going to have more in common with an American presidential campaign than a by-election in Wigan. I'm sure the man-frog is already working out which pub he can be photographed having a pint in.
It’s going to be a media feeding frenzy. Lots of London journalists are presently googling which bit of ‘there be dragons’ Wigan is actually in. I’m sure the good folk of that fair town will give them a suitable reception. I’m married to one of them and they can be rather ‘to the point’ 😂
As long as they stick to the local traditions and don’t try to bring their southern nonsense with them
Pretty obvious what's happened. He's [Streeting] realised that this is not his time as he won't win a leadership election (see polling figures with him head to head with Starmer), but by resigning and forcing Starmer to accept the game is up he's positioning himself for a big job in the new govt (probably Chancellor or Home Sec)
Quite possibly, tho alternatively he didn't want to win in a restricted field by jumping the gun on Burnham - pretty much stated in his resignation letter ("it needs to be broad and it needs the best possible field of candidates") which was also timed to come immediately after Raynor being cleared.
Labour have MPs to burn given the size of their majority, and if Burnham can't get selected and win this by-election it's unlikely he'd lead Labour to victory in the next general election anyway.
Streeting is absolutely RoboPol - he'll have decided what he was going to do on the basis that Starmer's unpopularity and lack of union support would be marching Labour over a cliff and the country towards a Reform govt; told Starmer this on Weds in their 5min meeting (again because that's the right thing to do).
I see he's not exactly popular here (though I like him fwiw, for robopol aspects, clarity of articulation, humour amongst other things) and Burnham may have a better chance of keeping Reform out which is frankly all that matters. But consider for a moment that he might be trying to do exactly the right thing.
What's the timeline for a by-election?
Couple of months. Hence why Streeting wanted to trigger the contest now. He failed and the other main possibilities (Rayner and Miliband) seem to be in Burnhams camp so we get to wait.
Andy and wes walk arm in arm down downing Street to 10 and 11
This seems unlikely. Supposedly Miliband is interested in being chancellor. Regardless it seems unlikely Burnham will easily reconcile with Streeting.
Great two+ months of this dominating the news/social media 🙁
Makerfield going to be the most media mad by-election ever?
And rightly so because it's going to be a massive proxy of the 2028/9 general election (perhaps even earlier if Burnham thinks he has the momentum). If Burnham beats reform in Makerfield it shows he can beat them across the country and we could see the reform bubble burst in spectacular fashion. Lose and it proves the opposite and that he didn't deserve to be PM in the first place. I can't think of a single by-election in history where the stakes have been so high.
Great two+ months of this dominating the news/social media
And lots of high profile MPs will have their summer holidays screwed!! 🤣 🏖️
streeting us a right wing Christian natuonalist in the wrong oarty. He is a paid shill for private healthcare. utterly corrupt, venal and vile man
no he isn't
Great two+ months of this dominating the news/social media
I can't decide if it's better or worse than The Perpetual Trump Show 🤔
Great two+ months of this dominating the news/social media
Someone on Newscast last night were saying how all this Labour leadership stuff has overshadowed Farage and his dodgy finances, but that won't last. There's going to be a lot more attention payed to that ticking time bomb. Given that there's now going to be a by-election, the financing of Reform is going to be a lot bigger issue than they've been getting away with so far now this dodgy crypto-funding is in the open.
I can't think of a singly by-election in history where the stakes have been so high.
It's going to be interesting to see how what the other parties do. How much active campaigning will the Tories or the Greens do, given the stakes? Would we see any arrangements or alliances taking shape between parties. What about the Tories and Reform? Could Andy strike a deal with the Greens to represent a far more progressive Labour Party than under Starmer?
Could Andy strike a deal with the Greens to represent a far more progressive Labour Party than under Starmer?
I'll be disgusted if the greens stand a candidate, and I say that as a green party member. The tories will almost certainly stay out of it, so if Polanski uses this as a platform for his rapidly expanding ego he could properly f*** things up. The lib dems should stay out of it too if they are at all serious about not wanting a Reform govt.
Great two+ months of this dominating the news/social media
Just in time to prevent the focus being on Reform and their back handers. Great.
I did chuckle when farage said reform where going to throw everything at it, because everything probably includes a lot of dodgy crypto bribes
its not just farage, the whole lot stinks, honest Bob has been at it again https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/apr/30/labour-robert-jenrick-give-campaign-donation-charity-allegation
Just in time to prevent the focus being on Reform and their back handers.
A by-election campaign led by Labour's most popular politician is the perfect platform to get all Farage's and Reform's skeletons out in the open. I reckon it has the potential to properly derail the Reform bandwagon.
Why would the Green Party (whose current line is "we're here to replace Labour") and the Libdems stay out of it? Yes, they want to stop Reform... but they're not in politics to help Burnham, or Labour, out of a hole. If it was a general election, with all seats up for grabs, then you could argue that stepping aside or doing minimal campaigning to reduce the number of MPs to stop Reform would be the noble thing to do. But this is one seat, that'll be getting all the attention, neither party will want to give way to a narrative of "it's Labour or Reform" at this point.
streeting us a right wing Christian natuonalist in the wrong oarty. He is a paid shill for private healthcare. utterly corrupt, venal and vile man
no he isn't
look him up in the register of interests. He takes a lot of money from private healthcare and wants more private involvement in the NHS.
He voted on the assisted dying bill because of his religion not representing his constituents and he broke the rules on cabinet neutrality over it.
he is right wing even for this version of labour.
Why would the Green Party (whose current line is "we're here to replace Labour") and the Libdems stay out of it?
Because there's a much bigger picture and more important things to consider than their own parochial interests. Just like we've seen in other countries (France being the best example), progressives are going to have to work together to prevent the hard right from gaining power. That's going to be needed in 2029 so there's no reason not to get started in Makerfield. If the greens and lib dems take votes off Burnham and he loses then they're handing the country to Farage.
Why would the Green Party (whose current line is "we're here to replace Labour") and the Libdems stay out of it?
Because both of they know they've got zero chance of forming the next government. It really has become a Labour -v- Reform race.
He takes a lot of money from private healthcare
£55k for his constituency office from a headhunting agency that works for NHS and private clients. Depends what you call "a lot".
progressives are going to have to work together to prevent the hard right from gaining power.
To me that totally depends on Labour actually being a progressive party.
Do we get a proper reset and proper change with a new leader?
If I hear one more repeating radio Centrist refer to the term 'Psychodrama.' FFS - we are reaping the product of a shit-fail of a government and the process to try and sort it out.
The definition of stability seems to have jumped ahead of a progressive government doing the right thing and actually being competent in the first place that caused this damn chaos by being useless right-wing wannabees.
Leaving Starmer in place is suicide. It's the worse possible position evidenced by not even two years of constant poor quality politics and bumbling clown in a minefield activity.
It really has become a Labour -v- Reform race.
It always was. I'm a green supporter but only to the point where they win in areas they can and use their influence to prevent the Labour party from heading further right. In a sense they've already done their job. Not really sure how relevant they are in a Burnham-as-PM world. They'll be far better off working with him than against him though. No one will thank them if they give Farage the victory he craves.
Because both of they know they've got zero chance of forming the next government. It really has become a Labour -v- Reform race.
But that isn't what this election will be. It is not a general election. What happened at the last by-election? Many people (and I'll include myself in that) thought voters would be getting behind Labour to stop Reform there. It's not the job of the Green Party or LibDems to help Andy Burnham become PM, they, especially the Greens, will want to build on their momentum to become a party that can win seats not just be the recipient of protest votes. Winning this seat, and putting a leading light in the Labour party out of a job, while also beating Reform... however unlikely... could make them look like they genuinely have a chance of being part of a future government. Moving aside for a "Labour vs Reform" fight might work for Labour (and in my opinion as well for the good of the country) but why would any party move aside at a bye election with an increasingly multi party supporting electorate?
If I hear one more repeating radio Centrist refer to the term 'Psychodrama.'
Matt Chorley on Five Live has banned any guests from using the word
But that isn't what this election will be?
It's a proxy for the next general election. Mad that it is, but that's what everyone will see it as. I think if Burnham wins big in Makerfield he'll be tempted to call a GE early, possibly even next spring.
It's a proxy for the next general election.
And I'll repeat... why would other parties want the narrative to shift to "only Labour can beat Reform" if they have an eye on the next general election? You might be supporting the Green Party to try and change the Labour Party... but they are not a wing of the Labour Party, and they will want to build on their progress, not have the country thinking that we're returning to a two party system... just with Reform replacing the Tories. As it happens, I think that could well be what the next General Election becomes... but Green politicians won't be aiming for that, or doing anything that supports that, at this point, with Labour on the ropes.
I think if Burnham wins big in Makerfield he'll be tempted to call a GE early, possibly even next spring.
So we could get both a Reform Mayor of Greater Manchester and a Reform government in the next 12 months. FFS. I'm hoping he's smarter than that.
So we could get both a Reform Mayor of Greater Manchester and a Reform government in the next 12 months. FFS. I'm hoping he's smarter than that.
Woooooah there. I think its a bit premature to be saying we'll end up with a Reform Mayor in Manchester.
At the last Mayoral election, only 2 years ago, the results were
Labour 64%
The Tories 10%
Reform 7%
The Greens 7%
Lib Dems 5%
That's quite a mountain to climb
At the last Mayoral election, only 2 years ago, the results were
Let's have a look at the how people voted for their MPs only 2 years ago...
For example:
https://members.parliament.uk/constituency/4066/election/422
Pretty obvious what's happened. He's [Streeting] realised that this is not his time
I think you're giving him too much credit.
That would have to represent by far the biggest electoral swing UK politics has ever seen, by some margin
Anyway... Wes Streeting has just tweeted something very supportive of Andy Burnham, which would suggest that this is all indeed planned and coordinated
I think you're giving him too much credit.
I was quoting daz, tho it is supported by what's in his resignation letter. He is not without faults as TJ might possibly agree, but is a shrewd and clear sighted operator. Moreso even than some of us posting on this thread
FFS. I'm hoping he's smarter than that.
It's all about momentum. Obviously it's a remote possiblity given where Labour are in the polls but there's a possible scenario which could play out...
1. Burnham wins massively in Makerfield, challenges Starmer and becomes PM unopposed with the whole Labour party behind him.
2. Media attention swings to Farage's 5M quid bung and he starts to haemorrhage support.
3. Burnham spends the next 6 months demonstrating he can do the job without spooking the markets and the polls turn around on the back of that and voters seeing what the reality of Reform councils look like.
4. Burnham sets out a vision for greater EU cooperation, massive state investment in the economy, electoral reform, and bringing public transport and utilities under govt control.
5. Burnham calls an election to seek a mandate on his new legislative priorities.
Add the likelihood that by next spring the Iran war (and possibly Ukraine) will probably be over and the economy recovering, and Trump effectively neutered after losing the midterms it starts to look a little more possible.
I'll be disgusted if the greens stand a candidate, and I say that as a green party member
I have to admit that's my line of thinking too. Although I would probably me more disappointed than disgusted.
Greens could get a great deal of positive press from publicly supporting Burnham, while setting the expectation that a Labour party which moves leftwards a bit is one they could better work with.
Maybe I am being optimistic
but is a shrewd and clear sighted operator.
have you met many politicians? None of the adjectives you've used there apply to any of the dozen or more that I have, including some who've reached quite high up the greasy pole.
6. Working class labour votes have already disappeared to Reform
7. Left wing middle class have seen hundreds of pensioners arrested on 'terrorism' charges and think fts.
8. Reform become the largest party but no majority (and no one wants to do a "Lib Dems").
9. Italians start making jokes about lack of a stable UK government.
have you met many politicians
I have. including Streeting a few times in meetings. Streeting meetings - difficult to portmanteau.
Has Streeting really achieved those NHS stats?
From my perspective my check ups are now much much longer apart...so obviously free's up space. But obviously my malignant issue will not be spotted as fast. My doctor at the hospital says they had all received a memo stating that fact. (And said it was the new policy now!)
I am just one person.
Is it awaiting nationwide health time bomb?
Do the the headlines just do not show the proper facts?
****ing idiots!!! Are they really that clueless?! Apparently so. Having said that, knowing it as I do (my in laws are all from there) I can't exactly see Hindley being a hotbed of Green voters
Anyways... this is a good read, as always, from Ian Dunt on actually having some optimism for a change, no matter how improbable.
Burnham is a supporter of electoral reform. Read that again - it’s important. This is a thing that is really happening. An out-and-proud supporter of electoral reform is currently fighting to get into No.10 with a viable chance of succeeding.
Burnham is a believer in devolution. Read that again too. It matters. One of the reasons Britain stagnates is because its centralised system stifles creativity. Local power drives decision-making down to where people understand what’s needed, whether that is a tram network or a tax system.
He is politically astute and emotionally present. He is a far better communicator. He is empathetic, and he retains the political acumen that comes from being empathetic and thereby anticipating people’s reactions to events. Most of all, he is prepared to take big swings. Standing for a by-election in a Reform-Labour marginal at the height of government unpopularity in order to challenge a prime minister is a big swing. It is unprecedented. It is the kind of thing someone does when they are driven by self-confidence rather than the hesitancy and inertia which has typified the last two years.
****ing idiots!!! Are they really that clueless?!
As I've said before I think Polanski has caught the same disease Jo Swinson was afflicted with. The win in Gorton and the gains in the locals have inspired in him a much greater sense of his own importance than exists in reality. Much like Swinson thought she could be PM, he seems to think the Greens are going to replace Labour as the main progressive party. Like Swinson he'll go the same way if he doesn't quickly learn his place in the world. If the greens split the vote in Makerfield and prevent a Burnham victory they'll be forever known as the party which enabled a Farage govt, just like the Lib Dems enabled the tories. It's idiotic.
It's all about momentum.
Not that lot again!!! 😉
Honestly Labour have utterly fudged things for themselves with all of this.
As noted above the lead story this week should have been about Nige and RUK taking bungs. But instead Labour are embarking on a Very Tory psychodrama/leadership contest and have squandered the opportunity to put the focus on RUK's corruption
SKS is far from delivering (noting he's just 18 months in), but these constant internal power struggles are what undid the last lot and that is precisely why we have a Labour Government today... If there was one thing that we didn't need to see it was this government following the patterns of the previous half decade.
Right now Streeting comes across as a scheming, self promoter; grasping for a one time opportunity unconcerned about any impacts to the party or (more importantly) the country. Burnham's desperation to get back in parliament despite having said he was happy as a (pretty popular) Manchester Mayor has similar vibes but part of me wonders if this is just him wanting to drag the party back to a more left of centre position(?), I'm inclined to be more charitable about his motives TBH.
The other potential runners need to think long and hard about how much they really want that poisoned chalice, the remainder of this government's term is going to be a battle with the spectre of an RUK government looming over the country the whole time. The odds of any of them winning the next GE, let alone achieving anything with the next ~36 months if they take the top job is increasingly marginal.
Burnham's desperation to get back in parliament despite having said he was happy as a (pretty popular) Manchester Mayor has similar vibes but part of me wonders if this is just him wanting to drag the party back to a more left of centre position(?), I'm inclined to be more charitable about his motives TBH.
Because I'm that boring, I've just read Andy Burnham's book he wrote with Steve Rotherham. What this sets out is using the knowledge and ambition they've used in Manchester and Liverpool over the last ten years as a blueprint for the country
Imagine that? Someone trying to get into power who actually has a proper plan, an actual manifesto for change that's already delivered results, rather than 'lets withdraw from the UCHR and see how many people can we deport'. It's proper mad stuff like stopping taking all the decisions in Westminster and devolving real power to the regions to let them govern themselves. Crazy stuff!
