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But there's a sizable Labour voting Brexit supporting block, what is he to say to those folks?
He needs to explain how the EU has been a boon and keep hammering away at it. not pretending that brexit can be made good.
he has two years to make it stick. He would get plenty of support from SNP and lib dems
Just keep hammering away
" the tories Brexit is a disaster - here is an example" "If we had SM access / freedom of movement / customs union then this would not have happened" the tories are responsible for this and its cost every one of us x amount
But there’s a sizable Labour voting Brexit supporting block, what is he to say to those folks?
Point out it hasnt worked and explain instead what policies he would be putting forward to support them.
Actually provide policies which inspire and provide an alternative rather than just blaming everyone else like the tories do.
He needs to explain how the EU has been a boon
I read an academic paper (i'll try to dig it out) who's author was suggesting that lots of the people that voted Brexit just didn't consider themselves as part of the Economy. They thought that that just didn't apply to them, that their lives didn't matter, and it's hard to argue that the EU has been a plus when folks in some bits of Wakey (for instance) have seen their communities steadily fall apart and erode under both Tories and Labour without any help from outside.
I think you're right, I'd very much like to see a strong labour argument for rolling back Brexit, but we're not rejoining yet and that's at best 10-15 years away, if at all. From a 5 year election cycle perspective, Brexit just isn't the hill to die on this time around, for this Labour leadership and I get why they'd make that call. .
Without closer tires to the EU then nothing else he does matters significantly as nothing will make up for the lack of EU membership.
It does not have to be rejoin immediately but closer ties are essential for economic recovery
There are plenty of examples he can use that show direct effects. SMEs closing, loss of EU funding for local projects. Bigging up the stuff that was done with EU regional funding etc etc
Ie go to say Nottingham. find a local firm that has closed or reduced staff because of brexit. Tell everyone - this firm closed / cut jobs because of the tory brexit. Thats 50 jobs gone because of the tory brexit. Keep hammering on on it. Every speech or meeting. It does not take long to get the mood changed
But Starmer is addressing a real non-existent problem that is a huge imagined existential problem for these Brexit voters (the size of which voting block no one really has a handle on) - That membership of the EU means uncontrolled immigration. In many ways the detail of the speech that he made is less important than the call for the folks who he's addressing to just come back to Labour.
In essence today Starer said that he's opposed to low wages, but has to both recognise the need for immigration at an UK wide economic level, while simultaneously smoothing the feathers of the people who think that the migrants crossing the channel in small boats is (and Sunak said as much as well) the biggest issue facing the country right now. This constituency is being chased by both Labour and the Tories. I would rather they voted Labour.
When we were a member didn't we have the right to send back any EU citizen that didn't have a job or money after 3 months? Surely that should have placated the biggest of gammons.
But Starmer is addressing a real non-existent problem that is a huge imagined existential problem for these Brexit voters
The way you do that is by countering the lies not by reinforcing them.
It wasnt the EU which was ignoring those people, indeed it tended to do the most for them, but instead the tories and, sadly, new labour when they took all those areas for granted whilst chasing the swing voters.
Accepting the hard right lies about the EU isnt going to solve their issues. Thats only going to be done by actually giving a toss and part of that includes actually be honest and saying that leaving the EU wasnt a good idea.
We could've made all sorts of provisions, Belgium requires folks to have a job, Germany imposes a wage cut off. We could've done any or all of that, but...Successive govt's under invested, and didn't train in places like Rotherham and Wakefield and Dover and Newport, and allowed immigration to fill cheap labour places and well, we are where we are. The EU won't even talk to the UK about rejoining until the public want it and both political parties support it, and we're years away from that.
When we were a member didn’t we have the right to send back any EU citizen that didn’t have a job or money after 3 months?
Yes and never used it
But Starmer is addressing a real non-existent problem that is a huge imagined existential problem for these Brexit voters (the size of which voting block no one really has a handle on) – That membership of the EU means uncontrolled immigration.
And he is reinforcing that.
and saying that leaving the EU wasnt a good idea.
When you've got an educated and trained workforce with great jobs nearby and all that comes with that, then you can tell those people that leaving the EU wasn't a good idea, because those people could see themselves taking their skills and high wages and moving to Germany or France. Folks with nothing to live off but benefits who can't afford the gas and see their rent going up don't want to be told that a "A bright future awaits them in the off world colonies" because it's out of their reach.
Do the things in the right order, to get the results you want.
Kerley – without fixing the mess of brexit then improving anything else is almost impossible.
Not at all true. Most things can easily be improved if a government actually wanted to regardless of fixing Brexit.
Much harder tho unless brexit is reversed. We have a constant and year on year loss of billions because of brexit. Its because of brexit we are in recession right now.
Nickc - but you can tell them jobs have gone because of Tory brexit. keep hammering its a tory brexit and its cost every one in the Uk thousands. Point out how much better off they would be in the EU etc etc
Why is Scotland so pro EU and pro immigration and why does no one not even the tory party ramp up the anti eu anti immigration rhetoric here?
Because the weather is so bad and the cities so grim that you have to bribe foreign workers to come live there to replace the people who move to England?
and it’s hard to argue that the EU has been a plus when folks in some bits of Wakey (for instance) have seen their communities steadily fall apart
The other aspect of this is that the pro-EU people often portrayed the main benefits of EU membership as mainly about the money provided by things like the EU regional development fund. The trouble with that is that in northern working class towns people see that as handouts. They don't want handouts (especially from the germans and the french), they want to stand on their own two feet via well-paying jobs and affordable housing/bills. The EU did very little to provide either of those.
I don't disagree; which makes it all the more important that folks are trained and educated and there's investment to create jobs because that the only way we'll get to a point where re-joining the EU makes sense to the folks who voted out. Make those people feel like it's in their interests to rejoin (because they have skills to take advantage of it) and it'll be a piece of cake,
Lolz at Dazh
Nickc – but you can tell them jobs have gone because of Tory brexit
I think I'd rather say; vote Labour and we'll make sure you can get trained into a good job? As you rightly said, give folks some leadership, give them something to vote for rather than against?
Cart before horse Nickc
labour need to tell folk that leaving the EU has made their lives worse as its true and blame the tories.
abour need to tell folk that leaving the EU has made their lives worse as its true
I'm not sure that true for folks who experienced 20-30 years of underinvestment though, I don't think Brexit (tory or otherwise) has made that much difference to them.
I don’t think Brexit (tory or otherwise) has made that much difference to them.
I spent a whole year on the brexit thread trying to get this point across. Hope you have more success. 😉
Because theres double the % migrant population in England?
Ignoring English migrants, yeah?
Do the things in the right order, to get the results you want.
The problem is you are still repeating the hard right lies and misdirections.
The EU actually provided support for those folk who had been abandoned by the tories and the centrists of new labour.
An open and honest policy would be to acknowledge why people voted for brexit but point out how it failed them, as it was designed to do, and then what can be done about it.
We have tried your approach of not dealing with the hard right lies. It turned out shit.
You want to reinforce failure.
I don’t think Brexit (tory or otherwise) has made that much difference to them.
Apart from increased unemplyment and falling job opportunities along with the loss of EU grants for regional stuff.
I spent a whole year on the brexit thread trying to get this point across. Hope you have more success.
Definitely did.
Brexit is a product of a much more complex and difficult to pin down economic landscape. It's become convenient to use it as an explanation for many metrics.
There is a general headline tone that Brexit has caused all economic problems if you're on the left. Things are pretty overlapped and so messed up now that it's impossible to extrapolate what caused what.
It's very clear we need a new model. The old one is on fumes.
Where the hell are the great political thinkers and ideas ? Why do we keep repeating all the stupid mistakes?
I think the establishment is just expecting it all to snap back into place.
Next couple of years will be interesting for sure.
Carla Denyer, the Green party’s co-leader, said:
Six years on from the referendum, we can see clearly there are no economic opportunities from Brexit; nor any social or environmental benefits. Brexit has been a disaster.
The Office for Budget Responsibility said last year that the impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse in the long run than the coronavirus pandemic. So Keir Starmer talking of the importance of economic growth within the current Brexit arrangements is to ignore the elephant in the room standing in the way of economic success.
The Green party wants the UK to rejoin the customs union, maintain alignment with EU law where it offers environmental and social protections and reinstate freedom of movement. We also want to rejoin the EU at some point in the future when the conditions are right. And the majority of Brits now agree with us. In a recent poll, 53% of people said they want to rejoin the EU compared to 34% who want to stay out.
Ignoring English migrants, yeah?
Dunno just went off the official headline stats for "people not born in england/scotland".
I was just making the point that its easier to make less of an issue of something thats less of an issue
Kerley – without fixing the mess of brexit then improving anything else is almost impossible. Its the first thing that needs to be done that would then lead on to all other stuff being easier to fix
I don't agree with this.
You've just got invest in what resources you have and match with the appropriate available labour. Then spend.
Asking either current government to come up with an actual plan is the problem rather than being out of the EU.
But the year on year loss that brexit has caused is a huge additional drag
That's your logic again TJ... we have stifled trade and locked down our workforce yet some how just have to "make the most of it"... no, it doesn't make any sense... and no, we can't fix things within our current agreements with the EU. Starmer could tell the voters that now, but all it would do is keep Labour out of office for yet another term. That's the choice he faces. Winning the argument and being out of office after the next election will help no one but the Tories. It might look daft from up there, or down in London, but that's how things stand across lots of key seats here in the middle. Our relationships in Europe will have to be redressed, but nothing will happen this side of 2025.
In which case a Starmer government will fail - and that wisdom is wrong anyway not just IMO but wider analysis. without a closer relationship with the EU a Starmer government has not one but both hands tied behind his back. 4 billion a year loss from brexit at a minimum and that compounds year on year
Data on voting intentions and attitudes to immigration examined by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) suggests that a more flexible approach would attract many more swing voters than it would repel for Labour.
It is the concentration on swing voters as the only ones that matter that is a big part of why we are in this mess. Elections have been won in the centre because that is where they have been fought, taking for granted the traditional labour voters has driven them to be disenfranchised and susceptible to populism (as well as allowing the supposed centrists to be guided to the political right). Instead of fighting for a few hundred thousand swing voters, there are more gains to be made by fighting for the millions of disenfranchised.
It’s not about “the centre” it’s about demographic spread. You need to get the older voters in the towns and suburbs to vote across the country to get a spread of seats. Labour getting bigger and bigger support from younger voters in the big cities doesn’t take enough seats off the Tories. The fate of the UK is tied to these older non-urban voters, amongst whom are there are far too many overly motivated by immigration and Brexit. Depressing, but something Labour can’t ignore.
they want to stand on their own two feet via well-paying jobs and affordable housing/bills. The EU did very little to provide either of those.
It's not the "EU's" job to make a country better to live in, that's the country politicians job.
The EU's job is to create a level playing field across its member countries, and then it's up to the countries to 'exploit' this by creating policies that help their businesses & citizens - note that the countries that do best in the EU are also the ones that do best globally.
The EU definitely succeeded here, you've only to look at the improvements in the UK since we joined, and before we left...
Starmer could tell the voters that now, but all it would do is keep Labour out of office for yet another term
I disagree. I think he would gain far more votes and seats than he would lose if he was honest and presented a positive case for the EU. at the moment he is losing so many votes either to abstension or pro EU parties.
He is concentrating too much on appeasing racists in a few seats and thus losing far more in other seats.
He is concentrating too much on appeasing racists in a few seats and thus losing far more in other seats.
Yes. He is. Welcome to FPTP. He needs to win seats off the Conservatives, not weigh the vote in seats Labour already have. That means pandering to a certain group of voters who are not at the centre of UK politics at all, when it comes to migration they are far more reactionary than the majority of people here, and Brexit has reaffirmed and consolidated that for them. Trying to change their view of immigration and Europe now is a losing battle. What a mess.
'It’s not the “EU’s” job to make a country better to live in, that’s the country politicians job.'
Bingo. The reason parts of the UK are so disadvantaged and the whole country has skidding productivity, growth is that there's been no UK government policy to change that. Industries have died and it's been largely been left to the market to fix that, with little investment or promotion even though that's going to be required to make it happen in a meaningful way (because everyone else does it).
That's been a deliberate UK government policy, based on free market dogma.
But suggesting the UK rejoin the EU as a key policy is toxic, no matter how good an idea. Better relations is a palatable start
And by doing so he is giving up on seats in the south and in Scotland
Public opinion has shifted and is still moving. he is fighting yesterdays battles.
The line he is taking and you approve of will cost him more seats than it gains IMO
But suggesting the UK rejoin the EU as a key policy is toxic,
Thats the opposite of what the polls show. His "make brexit work" is impossible and a vote loser
The polls say people think leaving was a mistake. Are they also saying people want to rejoin, with the inevitable multi year circus that entails?
He is concentrating too much on appeasing racists
So why isn't he appeasing racists like many other European politicians and political leaders, some of them in office, currently do?
Or is he only interested in this weird anti-european racism which middle-class liberals are obsessed with screaming about?
How about some proper racism which many French, Italian, and Scandinavian, politicians understand?
Here's an example of proper racism from a "centre-left" European government:
I disagree. I think he would gain far more votes and seats than he would lose if he was honest and presented a positive case for the EU
In the "Red Wall" seats, the voters there want their voices (That they think the EU = uncontrolled immigration*) heard, telling them all about the joys of the EU would be as welcome as a bucket of sick. The speech yesterday was aimed at a specific group of people that Labour need to vote Labour again. The election is 2 years away, Starmer needs to get a group pf people of unknown size and voting intent back to thinking that their best interests lay with voting Labour again.
*this is entirely imaginary, but it is well ingrained in the communities, you can't win by telling these folks that their beliefs are stupid and unfounded.
How would you feel if a politician that wants your vote tells you the things you don't believe; are in fact true?
middle-class liberals are obsessed with screaming about?
Boo! Middle-class liberals! Collaborating with other countries! Welcoming immigrants! Boo! Hiss!
Plenty of racism, populism and use of immigration fears in politics the world over Ernie. Countries in the EU included. Everyone knows that. Being aware and wary of it isn't just a UK concern. But while talking about UK politics, it can't be ignored that the anti-immigrant vote is now firm in the UK, and can't be ignored by the big parties, sadly. UKIP won without winning a seat in the UK parliament. At least for now. Trying to upturn that before the next election is the most likely route to another 5 years of Tory government. After 2025 things might shift though. This working-class liberal hasn't given up hope longer term.