The evidence that being personally liked by voters translates into support on election day is weak.
Well liked more than the alternative leader rather than liked as such. Has been the case every time in the last 50 years.
I don't see that at all kerley, I think you might be confusing liking policies with liking an individual.
There is no evidence that voters thought Thatcher was a nicer person than Jim Callahan, or that they would prefer to go to the pub with John Major rather than Neil Kinnock, or that they David Cameron was a great person compared to Ed Miliband.
Policies was the primary deciding factor, and the ability of the individual, rather than whether they they liked them.
Personal appeal plays a part but I don't see evidence that it does to the extent some people seem to think it does.
Edit : I would be interested in your opinion concerning why cleggmania didn't translate into increase support for the LibDems.
Centrist liberal England isn’t a myth, it is unfortunately the key to winning elections under first past the post. I though this was pretty obvious.
Yes it is a myth. If it was correct the Lib dems would be pissing all over everyone.
They are the voters who can often swing the election but on their own they arent enough.
So if you chase them and piss all over the other voters then good luck since you wont see power.
The problem is many of the centrists are loonies who really believe they are the silent majority and hence everyone else should bow to their wishes and get the leftover scraps. This trick might work once or twice but soon fails.
Since the centrists have shown their utter disdain for anyone left of them then its a tricky sell nowadays.
was a nicer person
a great person
You are greatly over simplifying the idea of “liking” a political leader.
Well I'm a simple soul. I can't handle anything too complicated.
Yep, I didn't say nicer or great, I said liked (or preferred maybe a better word)
Blair - preferred
Blair - preferred again
Brown - not preferred, Cameron wins
Miliband - we know how that went
Corbyn - we really know how that went as probably the most disliked for a long time and even lost to May who was not setting a high bar
Starmer, not a chance against Johnson
See how it goes now?
Will Murdoch choose Starmer, or stick with Boris/the tories?
Because that's how it really goes.
I said liked (or preferred maybe a better word)
Blair – preferred
Blair – preferred again
Brown – not preferred,
Preferred is a completely different word to liked. It is spelt differently and has a different meaning.
I will repeat my claim :
The evidence that being personally liked by voters translates into support on election day is weak.
During the heady days of cleggmania Nick Clegg was well liked by voters, apparently more than any other party leader. That did not translate into more support for the LibDems than the other parties.
He was not preferred by voters.
However much liked by the electorate their leader was voters weren’t anymore convinced that the LibDems had anything worthwhile to offer.
Edit : How typical that a political discussion among a bunch of middle-class liberals should be reduced to semantics - and then they wonder why they struggle in elections!
People can like someone who they don't think is a "nicer person". In fact, some people can like a political leader partly because they are not "nice". For some people “nice” is a sign of weakness in a leader, they want someone who’ll do and say things that they consider far from “nice”.
As for the Clegg stuff... maintaining support for any third party as election day draws in is always hard with FPTP... even if you like the leader, support the policies, and favour your local parliamentary candidate... if you're in a Tory/Labour marginal, the reality of the (high) risk of wasting your vote becomes clear when it comes to putting a cross in one box. Charles Kennedy was probably more widely liked then Clegg ever was, and for a more sustained period of time, but faced much the same issues when it came to electing MPs.
Farrage is an even better example of someone liked as party leader, but who failed when it came to getting MPs elected. He would have probably been far more successful if he was Conservative Party leader. FPTP protects our two biggest parties from challenger parties and MPs.
FPTP protects our two biggest parties from challenger parties and
MPspoliticians.
Need to remember that Farrage was never even an MP!
Anyway, today is all about getting the possible next PM ready to defeat Starmer or his successor. The Sunak PR assault will be huge today. Will Starmer or Reeves even be noticed?
During the heady days of cleggmania Nick Clegg was well liked by voters, apparently more than any other party leader. That did not translate into more support for the LibDems than the other parties.
Cleggmania was a flash in the pan after a leader debate in 2010 that lasted a few weeks at best, and given that he was debating with Call-me-Dave and Gordon (is he a robot) Brown that's not a massively high bar. And the Lib-Dems got into government in the subsequent election and increased their vote share, although they lost seats. Given that 3rd parties never do well in a FPTP system that's a pretty good result.
How typical that a political discussion among a bunch of middle-class liberals should be reduced to semantics
Says the communist, literally the home for petty political divisions...
Anyway, today is all about getting the next PM ready to defeat Starmer or his successor.
There's not a chance in hell that the tories will vote for a p*** as leader. Sorry for the blunt language, but that's how your average ignorant and bigoted tory member will see it. I could be wrong, but I just think it's a red line for most tories. In many ways I hope he is as it could be the only way for labour to win back the working class racist vote.
Says the communist
Communist? Have I missed something?
I could be wrong
I think you may well be.
Anyway, Starmer and Reeves... will they make any impact today?
will they make any impact today?
Think that's a rhetorical question isn't it? How can you make an impact when you're not offering anything different?
In many ways I hope he is as it could be the only way for labour to win back the working class racist vote.
Well, given that the Tories have had 2 women PMs and the current Home Sec, the Sec of Health and the CoE are all British Asian, and Labour has only managed to promote a woman as interim leader of the party. Perhaps you're right and Labour should be the natural home for working class racists?
Communist? Have I missed something?
Presumably you have. Although as someone who constantly pushes for political self-criticism and tolerance of different political stances in this middle-class liberal echo chamber you could be forgiven for being unaware of my commie credentials.
Nick claims to have a long held dislike for commies going back to his early days in the Labour Party.
Although ironically he appears to have much sympathy for the hard-right which is currently in control of the Labour Party and is using Stalinist tactics of purges, expulsions, and political intolerance, to consolidate its grip on the party.
The "Croydon Communist" label was something which was regularly thrown at me by the likes of binners and BnD. They don't seem to bother anymore as presumably they now see it as a bit lame and pointless. I can only assume that I hit a raw nerve with Nick with my 'middle-class liberals talking semantics' comment
. I can only assume that I hit a raw nerve with Nick with my ‘middle-class liberals talking semantics’ comment
You assume wrongly, it was meant as a light hearted jest, nothing you say winds me up Ernie.
If Fonzie Sunak presents an apparently expansionist budget, Starmer and Reeves will be arguing for austerity.
I'm glad you said "apparently"... that's exactly the spin I expect to see...
There will also be well designed elephant traps for Starmer and Reeves... I think they'll expect that and will be too scared/cowardly to respond with anything concrete 'till later in the week, after much analysis. At which point they'll be ignored, as will anyone else that's peeled back the boosterism sheen to show that the numbers really mean a new round of full on austerity ahead of us, and even harder times for the less well off.
it was meant as a light hearted jest, nothing you say winds me up Ernie.
Of course it was a light-hearted jest Nick. But Daz didn't seem to understand it which is why I felt it was probably necessary to explain.
And quite frankly I can't imagine why anyone would be wound up by what I post. It might occasionally hit a raw nerve though 😉
I’m glad you said “apparently”… that’s exactly the spin I expect to see…
Starmer has been outmanoeuvred?
By a Boris Johnson led government?
I'm not as politically minded as many on this thread but I'm really dissapointed in Starmer's lack of opposition and lack of alternatives so far. Even to the point of thinking he doesn't actually want to be elected PM and inherit this $hitstorm the Tories have created for us. In which case we really are doomed to more of the same $hit.
Presumably you have.
Oh I was well aware of your commie credentials. My comment was more of a question as to whether that was actually true. You seem more of a classical state socialist to me, which often gets conflated with communist thanks to Stalin and his postwar successors. I guess I'm still clinging on to the 19th century version of what a communist is 🙂.
The “Croydon Communist” label was something which was regularly thrown at me by the likes of binners and BnD.
Well binners thinks anyone to the left of Nick Clegg is a socialist worker so that's hardly a surprise. Won't be long til he's slagging off Starmer for being too left wing, all he needs is a catchy nickname like magic grandad. (weird how no one has come up with one yet!)
Armrest? That seemed to upset some people.
Perhaps you’re right and Labour should be the natural home for working class racists?
Some of the most racist people I've ever encountered were diehard labour voters. Most of my extended family in fact. I've always thought the main reason labour struggle to win elections is the near impossible task of forging a coalition between middle class liberal lefties and the reactionary racist working class. As unappetising as it may be to bed-wetting liberals as ourselves, Sunak offers the opportunity to do that again.
Although ironically he appears to have much sympathy for the hard-right which is currently in control of the Labour Party and is using Stalinist tactics of purges, expulsions, and political intolerance, to consolidate its grip on the party.
Lol!
but I’m really dissapointed in Starmer’s lack of opposition
I don't think anyone thinks he's doing a decent job.
the near impossible task of forging a coalition between middle class liberal lefties and the reactionary racist working class
I don't think the "working classes" are reactionary any more. Unionism as a uniting political force has been defeated in this country (unless it serves some other purpose like keeping wages low, or is right wing based like the police union, in which cases they're allowed to continue). If you want to get into the murky water of Sociology studies they refer to some as Retreatist or Rebellious, but those refer to cultural goal seeking to a conformist ideal.
Labour has always been an uneasy alliance right from the get go.
I’ve always thought the main reason labour struggle to win elections is the near impossible task of forging a coalition between middle class liberal lefties and the reactionary racist working class
The place for middle class liberal lefties is the green party and the place for racist working class is UKIP or whatever they are called. Labour will be left with?
I don’t think the “working classes” are reactionary any more.
The 2019 election and brexit referendum suggest the opposite.
Well, Starmer finally managed to make the headlines.
Bit of a misunderstanding of social class going on here. Whether conscious of it or not, the working class is composed of people who sell their labour power, which is the majority of the population. The opposing class is those who own and/or control the means of production. Notions of 'middle class' etc are based on notions of status and moral worth largely derived from the creation of the RG scale of occupations by the eugenicist THC Stevenson in the very early C20th. It was misconceived then as it is now.
Think that’s a rhetorical question isn’t it?
Radio4 broadcast Sunak's whole speech, and then stopped coverage as soon as Reeves stood up. Perhaps they'll be a 30 second clip later... Meanwhile, this is Sunak PR day... keep everything else out of the way...
Well, Starmer finally managed to make the headlines.
I expect an awful lot of MPs will be testing positive this week and next.
interesting that after last week, the govt benches are all masked
Starmer's paid the price for not being convivial and fraternal.
They're playing a clip now... Reeves going on... tax cuts for banks, internal flights, and bubbly. Tax deductions for large companies. Higher tax burden on working people...
And.. end of short clip... to talk to... Wes Streeting. FFS. 🤦🏻♂️
Reeves' version of the Magic Money Tree 'How will we pay for all this?' What did I say?
I don’t think anyone thinks he’s doing a decent job.
Loads of people do.
For a start the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs.
We know from recent history that if the Parliamentary Labour Party is dissatisfied with the leadership provided by its leader they will make their opinions heard.
In fact if they are dissatisfied with their leader they do a better job in attacking them than they do attacking the Tories.
Starmer's position is quite secure because Labour MPs are sufficiently happy with how he is getting on with the job.
The “Croydon Communist” label was something which was regularly thrown at me by the likes of binners and BnD.
It was 2016 when I did this comrade. i reckon thats an iPhone 6s so this is the proper olden days
[url= https://live.staticflickr.com/8115/28559970906_2f1bfb64f3_b.jp g" target="_blank">https://live.staticflickr.com/8115/28559970906_2f1bfb64f3_b.jp g"/> [/img][/url][url= https://flic.kr/p/KvKjku ]Ernie-iphone[/url] by [url= https://www.flickr.com/photos/14162682@N00/ ]bin lid[/url], on Flickr
😀
John McDonnell on LBC now getting down to the real issues in response to the budget noise. Worth a listen.
and then stopped coverage as soon as Reeves stood up.
Small mercies. Rachel Reeves is even more boring, uninteresting and mediocre than Starmer. It's pretty hilarious that many on the right see her as the next great Blairite hope (if we ignore the comedy Wes Streeting option). You can almost guarantee though that the next leadership election will be between her, Rayner and possibly Nandy.
You can almost guarantee though that the next leadership election will be between her, Rayner and possibly Nandy.
What a depressing prospect that is, so probably the case.
The one obvious option doesn't seem to be interested in involving himself in the basket case that is the Westminster set up.
Daz - did you see his piccie with one of my prints last week at the constituency fundraiser, comrade? He's signed it and we auctioned it off for charidee. It was 12 months to the day of the whole 'King of the North' thing with Boris where a labour party politician actually offered what looked like some genuine opposition to the government. Literally one for the scrapbook. No sign of it happening again any time soon
[img] 
[/img]
Get flaming, comrades 😀
Caption competition?
Binners... stop propping up the neo liberal establishment!
[ nice work there ... my eye is drawn straight to the Lowry though ]
I've had an order for a print (in return for another large charity donation) from the leader of one of the larger unions*
* not Len 🤣
did you see his piccie with one of my prints last week at the constituency fundraiser,
Of course I did. Whilst I think Burnham would do better than he did in 2015 I think staying out of national politics is probably the right decision as the cult of personality he's trying to develop in the north west (not the whole north) is a little cringeworthy, not to mention almost impossible to replicate anywhere else. The main thing it does for me is remind me how people in Manchester and Liverpool delude themselves that they're not in the midlands 😄.
And besides, labour need a female leader, whoever it is.
