Don't worry Operation Branchform is going to drag on for another year or so.
Sturgeon and Beattie totally cleared. One charge remaining against Murrell.
There wasn't enough evidence to reach the threshold of "beyond reasonable doubt". They are entitled to a presumption of innocence
Following direction from the Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service, criminal enquiries into two people arrested as part of the investigation into the funding and finances of the Scottish National Party have now concluded.
The 73 year-old man arrested on 18 April, 2023, and the 54 year-old woman arrested on 11 June, 2023, have not been charged and are no longer under investigation.
https://www.scotland.police.uk/what-s-happening/news/2025/march/operation-branchform-update/
Bye election coming up for Holyrood.
Should be interesting. Farage says he isco.ing up to campaign. I'll bet a significant anti racist counter demo. Remember what happened last time hecame north of the border
My bet? Low turn out and an easy SNP win.
For those who don't know the seat should be fertile ground for reform Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse is a mainly left behind former industrial area with a big sectarian area although some reports suggest that has changed.
Labours popularity has plummeted in Scotland but a lot of folk are scunnered with the SNP
Tories are in the doldrums and have shifted to a hard right culture wars position
Its a bellwether seat
There are still plenty of old gullible racists in the Central Belt, they'll be out in force for Farage.
reform might do better than expected, but McKelvie seems to be have been reasonably liked and a death rather than a by-election for embarrassing reasons probably means less of a less dramatic kick back against the incumbent. The second place at the last election was Labour, who suffer here by being the Westminster incumbent and the local authority ruling party. The SNP will be bound to (probably unfairly - but its politics!) play the S****horpe v Grangemouth card, which is not in the constituency but close enough to feel the ripples and one central belt heavy industry area always resonates with another. Reform didn’t even field a candidate in the seat last time round, and did abysmally in the regional constituency. Unless they come up with a candidate who is local, likeable and seems politically credible I think they’ll struggle to get 3rd. Meanwhile Labour will be unclear which front to fight on and box themselves into second.There are still plenty of old gullible racists in the Central Belt, they'll be out in force for Farage.
Summary of main revelations/themes in Sturgeon's memoir appears in the Guardian today.
TBH, nothing much surprising, but I think the suggestion that gender identity is a "choice" that certain offenders forfeit as part of imprisonment will upset some people. Also TBH I'm not well-informed enough about the gender/sex issue to say whether Sturgeon is right or whether it's fair criticism.
I don't like Sturgeon's politics and I think her approach to her (soon-to-be-ex) spouse's conduct in financial affairs reeks of wilful blindness...but I find Salmond's suggestion that his prosecution was entirely a political conspiracy was and is implausible.
Hmm shall we revisit that by-election then. Let's just remind ourselves of TJs prediction.
My bet? Low turn out and an easy SNP win
So low turnout, yep 44%, feels fairly low. Easy SNP win, no they got beaten by Labour. And how did Reform do, 26.1% of the vote, not far behind Labour 31.6% and SNP 29.4%.
So SNP on the wain and Reform clearly in ascendancy in this case. Maybe Scottish voters aren't so different after all?
More gender nonsense from Sturgeon there. Either you have self id or not. Forfeit for rapists? OK. What about indecent assault? Breach of the peace with serial elements?
As for her criticism of Salmond. He took the indy movement from around 30% to a whisker of independence. In her decade with the benefit of Credit and Boris she got no closer.
On domestic policy she asked to be judged on the education attainment gap. She failed.
". There were no “ifs” and no “buts” about it. This was to be the government’s “top priority”, superseding all else. Sturgeon left herself no wriggle room at all. She said: “Let me be clear — I want to be judged on this. If you are not, as first minister, prepared to put your neck on the line on the education of our young people then what are you prepared to? It really matters.”
So let’s look at the scorecard. In 2019 the attainment gap was 16.9 percentage points and this year, six years later, it is 17.1"
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/nicola-sturgeon-attainment-pledge-failure-bx625c6cc
As for her criticism of Salmond. He took the indy movement from around 30% to a whisker of independence. In her decade with the benefit of Credit and Boris she got no closer.
To be fair to Sturgeon, Salmond didn’t win the referendum, he turned out to be a workplace bully and arsehole (but not a proven sexual harasser), and has Brexit made Scottish independence less viable and not more attractive.
So let’s look at the scorecard. In 2019 the attainment gap was 16.9 percentage points and this year, six years later, it is 17.1
so I would agree with her - it probably is the most important thing a government can do. I’d probably also agree with you that they haven’t done enough. Would I be using 2019-2025 data to make a point that sturgeon failed? Probably not - Covid fell in that time and frankly ****ed over most teenagers but most of all those from poorer backgrounds. More to the point she’s not the current FM, nor even the one before so the last third of that period was not on her watch. Of course it’s also not something than can be fixed overnight, even if you had huge resource the gap is deep seated, cultural and structural inequality.
So let’s look at the scorecard. In 2019 the attainment gap was 16.9 percentage points and this year, six years later, it is 17.1
Would I be using 2019-2025 data to make a point that sturgeon failed? Probably not - Covid fell in that time
"Events, dear boy, events".
"Events, dear boy, events".
Not sure what you mean. Was she supposed to predict Covid? Pull off some miracle in avoiding harm to young people, especially disadvantaged young people which no other country (to my knowledge) managed? Is in fact the gap better than it would have been in another government's hands (I have no idea, but I don't see anyone else making real suggestions how they would solve it either). And you edited out the rest of my comment about the time period - she wasn't FM for a big part of that period. Humza and Swinney also deserve scrutiny to see if they put the attainment gap as a top priority. Sturgeon failed to achieve her ambition - but I think she genuinely regrets that.
For me Brexit has made Scottish independence more difficult to attain but has simultaneously made it more abundantly clear that we need to be independent.
100% - it has made people who were sceptical want to support it whilst at the same time made people who support the idea question how it can work. I won't be surprised if when Indy Ref 2 comes round (whether that's in 4 years or 40) if the Westminster politicians pull off another "Vow" trick to say they'll fix Brexit issues so long as we all play together...
This I find very interesting. Polling for the next Holyrood election. Greens and SNP together will have enough seats to run an administration tho SNP on their own will be well short. Greens due to double representation. Reform taking a bunch of tory seats but hardly making a breakthrough. the votes that went to labour from the SNP at the last Westminster election have not stayed with labour but rteturned to the SNP or the greens. Greens due to double representation.
Given the SNPs issues and the fact they have been in power for yonks ( I firmly believe all parties that win elections run out of steam after 10 years or so) I find it fascinating that they are still on course to be the largest party and to form the next administration. It shows how poorly labour and the tories / reform are doing here.
Edit - link didn't show
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/polls/scottish-parliament
And a massive difference from the westminster polling. Whats that about the electorate not being much different here?
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/polls/general-election
Reform taking a bunch of tory seats but hardly making a breakthrough.
How is taking a bunch of Tory seats not a breakthrough?
Reform UK currently do not have any seats in Holyrood, ending up with a bunch of seats sounds like the very definition of a political breakthrough.
At the last general election Reform went from no seats at all to 5 seats. That was widely seen as an important breakthrough for Reform and since mid-April they have led every single national UK opinion poll.
It is clear that Reform are making huge gains in Scotland and your repeated denial of this reality is false.
How is taking a bunch of Tory seats not a breakthrough?
Two cheeks of the same arse?, entirely interchangeable?, a ****ing foul smelling shit covered fly ridding arse at that
Bearing in mind Reform are stronger Britnats than 'Scottish' Labour, or perhaps even the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party, their presence is hardly going to harm the SNP / Green vote. If anything, Reform will split the Unionist vote and strengthen SNP / Green chances of forming a majority administration.
It is clear that Reform are making huge gains in Scotland and your repeated denial of this reality is false.
Its clear you understand nothing about scottish politics with reform only gaining seats because of PR and only a handful then whereas they are due to be the largest party in england in FPTP but here they win not one co0nstituency. They are polling half here compared to England.
Reform will split the Unionist vote and strengthen SNP / Green chances of forming a majority administration.
Pr remember. this is not so because of the top up list seats. It matters not if the unionist vote is split 3 ways not two - there will still be the same number of unionist seats
For me Brexit has made Scottish independence more difficult to attain but has simultaneously made it more abundantly clear that we need to be independent.
I'm actually inclined to agree but Brexit has increased the short and medium term costs of Indy Scot joining the EU immensely. It's gone from a 5 year project to a 20 year one.
Its clear you understand nothing about scottish politics with reform only gaining seats because of PR
I know exactly why Reform are gaining both support and now likely seats too in Scotland. But that is not what is being discussed.
The point I am making, as you know, is that support for Reform in Scotland is growing and has now become significant. Something which you have repeatedly denied over and over and over again.
At the last Holyrood elections PR was fully in place as it will be in the next Holyrood elections, PR is nothing new in Scotland. Please explain why Reform have currently no seats in Holyrood?
Support for Reform is growing in Scotland and they look very likely to be about to experience a significant breakthrough in Scottish politics. You can place your fingers in your ears and shout la-la-la-la as much as you like but it won't change that undeniable fact.
For those who don't know the seat should be fertile ground for reform Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse is a mainly left behind former industrial area with a big sectarian area although some reports suggest that has changed.
Labours popularity has plummeted in Scotland but a lot of folk are scunnered with the SNP
Tories are in the doldrums and have shifted to a hard right culture wars position
Well you were right about the Tories and SNP although you also said it should be an easy win for the SNP.
Support for Reform is growing in Scotland and they look very likely to be about to experience a significant breakthrough in Scottish politics. You can place your fingers in your ears and shout la-la-la-la as much as you like but it won't change that undeniable fact.
Oh dear Ernie - stick to the english politics threads. If reform support in England was the same as in Scotland reform would not win a single seat at westminster. However their support is twice what it is in Scotland
Stumpy - so in a political situation and area that should be fertile ground for reform they could only come third. Hardly the breakthrough they were looking for
If reform support in England was the same as in Scotland....
Who on earth has made that claim? Go on, tell me who has claimed that support for Reform is the same in Scotland as it is in England.
Instead of making stuff up how about admitting that were wrong in your claims that support for Reform in Scotland was pretty much non-existent and not growing?
And also how about dropping your ridiculous assertion that Reform getting seats in Holyrood wouldn't represent a breakthrough for them?
It is a fact that Reform are gaining ground throughout the UK whether you or me like it or not. London has always been a no go area for Reform and yet they are now making significant breakthroughs, a couple of weeks ago they got their very first council seat in London
Reform will probably do well in next year's local elections in London, relative to how well they have previously done in London. That is a fact whether I like it or not and being in denial isn't going to magic them away, as you apparently seem to think.
Stumpy - so in a political situation and area that should be fertile ground for reform they could only come third. Hardly the breakthrough they were looking for
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj42gver2glo
Maybe the BBC should stick to commenting on English politics?
I never said what you keep on claiming I have done. You keep on saying there is no difference north and south of the border despite the actual data showing a huge difference - and this is one of them. reform are a fringe party here and are not set for a significant representation despite PR
Ernie - look I like your enthusiasm and your analysis if not always your conclusions - but your ignorance of scottish politics just shows thru.
So anyway, what about that BBC article/analysis...... rubbish?
Are they ignorant of Scottish politics too.....does it show thru?
Yes and yes. Happy to help.
I can see a situation where Reform .come second in the Holyrood elections. Few if any politicians in Scotland have the recognition that the pound shop Trump has. From talking to my 17 yo daughter about her classmates I can see a lot of her demographic voting for them. There might not be many Reform voters in hipster Leith but I bet there's a few in the surrounding areas.
In my opinion the correlation between SNP supporters and independence is strong but it is as far from a monopoly as it ever has been. Many vote for other pro indy parties and there's also a sizeable chunk that vote for unionist parties but would vote independence if they believed it a genuine possibility. Swinney knows this. I do believe that there is support for reform in Scotland and that some of it could come from independence supporters who are fed up with the same old same old and want a change, any change. Not a view I share. However at the moment Reform only have some council seats and some of them were defectors from other parties. So there's been no breakthrough yet, polls say it's close but that's no guarantee of anything.
Its an odd conundrum that some SNP voters voted no and a sizable number of labour supporters voted yes.
Of course there is no guarantee of anything but all the signs are that reform will remain a fringe party mainly taking tory votes so fighting for a share of 1/4 of the total vote. Have they actually won any council seats? I thought all their representation was defections.
I can see a situation where Reform .come second in the Holyrood elections.
they would have to double their current support to do so. Where are those votes going to come from? There are not enough tory votes left to take
I can see a situation where Reform .come second in the Holyrood elections.
they would have to double their current support to do so.
Not really. If Reform were to double their current level of support they would probably be the largest party in Scotland.
They are currently polling somewhere in the region of 15-18% which is at least half the level of support for the SNP. They won't need a huge increase in support to knock Labour into third place.
For a while now some pollsters have been predicting the possibility of Reform becoming the second largest party in Scotland. Your repeated claims that Reform will never make any headway in Scotland seem to be evermore shaky.
Its an odd conundrum that some SNP voters voted no and a sizable number of labour supporters voted yes.
I think it's easy to overestimate how important independence is in the eyes of Scottish voters. UK voters (including Scottish ones) are quite volatile and dealigned. It's not an impermeable wall between Unionist and Independence parties in either direction.
And Reform isn't really an ideological party - it's a "stick it up em" party that plays well among people who think the managerialism of the SNP and Starmer Labour is boring and the cause of this stuck feeling so many people have.
I think it's easy to overestimate how important independence is in the eyes of Scottish voters. UK voters (including Scottish ones) are quite volatile and dealigned. It's not an impermeable wall between Unionist and Independence parties in either direction.
I have my doubts about that. I know folk of all political persuasions here and no one I know has swapped from a unionist to an independence supporting party bar those who loaned their votes to labour at the last GE in desperation to get rid of the tories. they will ( as the polls show) mainly return to the SNP for holyrood or go green.
The scottish electorate has had a long time now to get used to the various forms of PR and tend to be quite sophisticated in how they use it - even folk who are non political in their day to day lives.
Not really. If Reform were to double their current level of support they would probably be the largest party in Scotland.
NO they would not. Look at the polling numbers. Please Ernie - listen and learn or shut up. Your profound ignorance on Scottish politics is obvious. folk will not go from SNP to reform or from Green to reform. they are not going to shift from a pro europe party to an anti europe party. I'm going to ignore your posts on Scotland from now on.
Your profound ignorance on Scottish politics is obvious. folk will not go from SNP to reform or from Green to reform.
Blimey, do just say the first thing that comes into your head? No one has said anything about SNP and Green supporters going to Reform.
You falsely claimed that Reform would need to double their current level of support to become the second largest party in Scotland.
I have simply pointed that if Reform did indeed double their current level of support in Scotland they would probably be in the largest party. Reform actually need to only increase their support by a very small percentage to become the second largest party in Scotland.
For several months now it has been suggested by pollsters that Reform could become the second largest party in Scotland, do you want me to provide you with links?
I have to say that for someone who lives in Scotland you appear to a remarkably poor understanding of the Scottish political situation with regards to support of various political parties, or is it just a case of denying what you feel is the uncomfortable truth?
Having said that I guess there are also plenty of people in England who also either don't understand or are in denial with regards to English politics, so I guess it's not particularly unusual.
And also how about dropping your ridiculous assertion that Reform getting seats in Holyrood wouldn't represent a breakthrough for them?
id say it all depends on what counts as a breakthrough for them. In some regards achieving even one MSP would be a breakthrough. Compared to their likely success south of the boarder 1 seat would in fact be a dismal failure not a breakthrough.
at the last election SNP got 64 seats, conservatives had a bit of a breakthrough with 31 putting them second and Labour 22. Greens got 8 and LD 4. I have no doubt that even if they only beat the libdems they will declare a breakthrough. If the match the previous Green record of 8 they will have made quite a leap in a short time - but given no other party is likely to cooperate with them they will still just be shouting from the sidelines. I don’t see them making it to 2nd place. If they beat Labour then the Scottish branch of Labour needs to have some serious introspection not about what reform are promising that they are not but at their failure to differentiate themselves from “London Labour”.
Conservatives in Scotland could well be behind Greens and even Lib Dem’s though.
id say it all depends on what counts as a breakthrough for them
How about going from no seats at all to several seats in Holyrood?
And if you want to make a comparison with Westminster then sure, why not.....at the last general election Reform went from no seats in Westminster to 5 seats, I think any reasonable person would describe that as a political breakthrough for them.
I obviously have no idea how many seats Reform will win in Holyrood next election, if any at all, I am just challenging TJ's assertion that it wouldn't represent a breakthrough for them in if they won some seats. Of course it would.
For months now TJ has denied the possibility of Reform having any significant support north of the boarder. Now he appears to be suggesting that going from about 7% of the vote in Scotland at the last GE and no seats at all in Holyrood to double that level of support and several seats as still not significant.
And I have no doubt that if Reform came second in the Holyrood elections TJ would still pretend that it somehow proved that they don't have any support in Scotland because otherwise they would have won.
TJ can run around moving the goal posts as much as he wants but it wont detract from the fact that Nigel Farage and Reform are a threat in Scotland.
I think it's easy to overestimate how important independence is in the eyes of Scottish voters. UK voters (including Scottish ones) are quite volatile and dealigned. It's not an impermeable wall between Unionist and Independence parties in either direction.
I have my doubts about that. I know folk of all political persuasions here and no one I know has swapped from a unionist to an independence supporting party bar those who loaned their votes to labour at the last GE in desperation to get rid of the tories. they will ( as the polls show) mainly return to the SNP for holyrood or go green.
So...your friends hopping from SNP to Labour and then back to SNP/Green seem like quite good anecdotal evidence of how the wall between Unionist and Independence parties isn't impermeable.
The poll i saw showed Reform in third, within a couple of points of Labour. I don't think it's as much about Reform taking votes from other parties but persuading the people who haven't voted previously to turn out for them. If that happens and Labour voters decide not to vote at all then Reform will be second. It's a depressing thought and definitely possible given what we've seen happen when people vote in recent years.
And Reforms popularity doesn't seem to be affected by the regular scandals that involve their representatives.
folk will not go from SNP to reform or from Green to reform.
I know people who claim to be former SNP voters who now intend to vote reform as they do not believe the SNP will tackle immigration in a way that they want, and that issue is now more important to them than independence. Indy is still important to them, but until it looks like Indy will deliver much more restrictive immigration controls they've gone Reform.
That's obviously anecdotal and reliant on those people being honest.
TJ can run around moving the goal posts as much as he wants but it wont detract from the fact that Nigel Farage and Reform are a threat in Scotland.
They are quite clearly a factor.
I wonder what Labour/Reform/Tory coalition government in the Scottish Parliament would look like...
PCA - since holyrood and the scots electorate overall becoming a wee bit more sophisticated in their voting decisions there has always been a tendency to vote differently in Holyrood and westminster elections. At the last GE a lot of SNP voters voted labour to get rid of the tories - but according to the polls will be returning to the SNP. Around 1/3 of labour voters support independence.
I think a lot of that vote shift was a "lending" of votes. I do not see it in the same way as you do as proof of the permeability over independence and party affiliation but as a recognition that the need to get tories out was higher than the need to get SNP MPs
Please note I have never been as absoloutist as Ernie claims I have. My position on Reform is they are not a significant force in Scottish poilitics and the polls bear this out with their support being half what it is in England. At Westminster they are set to be the largest party, in Scotland a minor irritation
According to a couple of polls (March and May) Reform are on track for 18-20% of votes at the next Scottish Parliament election
That would put them close to Labour, either 2% ahead or behind, and in second or third place to the SNP (on 33%)
I obviously have no idea how many seats Reform will win in Holyrood next election, if any at all, I am just challenging TJ's assertion that it wouldn't represent a breakthrough for them in if they won some seats. Of course it would.
But I’m challenging your assertion that any seat is a breakthrough- you can certainly spin in that way but not that long ago the Scottish Socialist party held multiple seats - they probably believed it was a breakthrough (they were a tiny party, primarily known for the vocal actions of one man). They were a flash in the pan. Margo MacDonal got elected as an independent, the first time anyone had done so, I thought that was a breakthrough for independent MPs and might pave the way for less focus on party politics. It’s never been repeated.
I don’t think you have a breakthrough in Scottish politics if you end up behind the Lib Dem’s! Take a random selection of the Scottish population and ask them to name any of the Lib Dem MSPs, or to define what their Scottish specific policies are and you will likely have a lot of silence.
Reform in Scotland will do better than they ever have before because:
- there are people who lean towards a low taxation, too many benefit cheats and immigrants, human rights are stupid type agenda.
- the tories have always been a toxic brand in Scotland since the days of thatcher, this essentially lets you vote for their sort of stuff without having to admin to yourself you are in fact a Tory!
- the tories in WM shafted what might have been a resurgence in Scotland with Boris and then Truss and the Scottish branch did far too little to be different and got into its own internal battles
- Labour in Scotland has been confused what it stands for, their position has been one of “at least we are not tories or nationalists”
- Greens have done well at picking up the second vote from left leaning nationalists as well as their core environmental types BUT have made such a mess of their time at the top table that I would be surprised if they do anywhere as well as the polls suggest. And that should be a very clear lesson to Reform: some will label any success as a Breakthrough but history will remember what you actually achieve not the fact you got a chance to make a noise.
but ALL of the parties have an identity crisis - take your random selection of the Scottish population and ask them to name the party leader, name any other front bencher / spokesperson, and tell you what their plans are for NHS, Schools, and Policing… on May the 8th they all wake up saying “how did the SNP win again despite everything” - they didn’t, every single alternative lost it. Reform will be shouting from the rooftops that they are the real winners. The better they do the bigger the fall next time because they won’t have done anything to inspire confidence or belief.
will reform motivate traditional non-voters to turn out? Some for sure, but not lots - what they might do is inspire some who have usually voted but can’t bring themselves to vote differently from years or habit/brainwashing and would otherwise have not bothered. But they will need to play their cards very carefully - they are the Farage party and Farage is hated here more than most politicians, he is the one who can get the masses excited, but in Scotland he as likely to be a poisoned chalice as the cause of success. South of the border reform have focused on working class tories and stealing Labour voters. The easily winnable Labour voters in Scotland have already switched, and there are few true working class tories. To actually succeed they need a different strategy in Scotland - which will see them just like every other party that has WM direction setting!
I think you are just challenging the definition of the word "breakthrough" poly.
In the context of Reform UK's performance in Scotland I am using the widely accepted definition of the word breakthrough, ie, "a sudden advance", such as in medicine, technology, negotiations, and indeed politics.
PCA - since holyrood and the scots electorate overall becoming a wee bit more sophisticated in their voting decisions there has always been a tendency to vote differently in Holyrood and westminster elections....
I think you are just elaborating on the general theme of "there is no great wall between Unionist and pro-Indy parties for many voters, but there's a good reason for it".
Your belief that the Scottish electorate is more wiley than others within the UK is charming - having been both of those types of voters I can confirm I am just as stupid voting south of the border in a PR/devolution arrangement as I was when voting north of the border in a PR/devolution arrangement...
I don't think it's as much about Reform taking votes from other parties but persuading the people who haven't voted previously to turn out for them.
It seems to me that so many people are "switched off" by the shit-show of recent UK politics and the lack of any inspiring vision for our countries. They can't be bothered to vote.
My personal understanding and view that what Reform offers is toxic, unworkable, and a lot of smoke and mirrors, matters not unless I vote. And that many more moderate voters have to turn out.
The danger from Reform is that they are creating a vision, a reactionary and emotional movement, a sense of belonging through being 'in it together' and are very good at creating motivation to actually turn out and vote for just one day....
I bloody hope that some of our older parties actually get their shit together quick enough to push back on the national threat that Reform are.
I don't think it's as much about Reform taking votes from other parties but persuading the people who haven't voted previously to turn out for them.
It seems to me that so many people are "switched off" by the shit-show of recent UK politics and the lack of any inspiring vision for our countries. They can't be bothered to vote.
My personal understanding and view that what Reform offers is toxic, unworkable, and a lot of smoke and mirrors, matters not unless I vote. And that many more moderate voters have to turn out.
The danger from Reform is that they are creating a vision, a reactionary and emotional movement, a sense of belonging through being 'in it together' and are very good at creating motivation to actually turn out and vote for just one day....
I bloody hope that some of our older parties actually get their shit together quick enough to push back on the national threat that Reform are.
Proving again what an irredeemable Centrist Dad **** I am, I listened to the The Rest Is Politics two part podcast with Nicola Sturgeon.
I've got to say that she came across very well, as quite personable and with good motivations. I would have listened to a third hour.
However, she didn't sell me on indy (esp after Brexit). The admission that she (and tbf probably everyone else in the party) knew that Salmond was a bully, inattentive and regularly impaired by alcohol was very disappointing- this was the guy they wanted to lead an independent Scotland? And equally the revelation that they were faxing confidential political documents to Salmond while he was in China (ie they may as well have CC'd the CCP) just underscored how ill-equipped the SNP has always been around foreign affairs - just look how Yusuf got sucked in by Erdoğan!
Independence is about a principle not the politicians. We vote for independence then a government.
In an independent Scotland the SNP would soon cease to exist as the glue holding together a very broad party would dissolve. Without the fight for independence the right wing hunting shooting and fishing SNP could not coexist with the left wing urban SNP. those tensions have been very obvious the last few years
Independence is about a principle not the politicians. We vote for independence then a government.
In an independent Scotland the SNP would soon cease to exist as the glue holding together a very broad party would dissolve.
It is astounding how many people don't get this!
Just goes to show that indeed there are a huge number of brainless morons out there. Which is a real shame because they also have the right to vote, and yet do not understand what it is they are voting for in the slightest...
"In an independent Scotland the SNP would soon cease to exist as the glue holding together a very broad party would dissolve."
Where is the evidence for this? In South Africa the ANC stayed in power for 30 years after indy. In India the Indian National Congress which led their independence movement stayed around and in power after 1947.
Turkeys don't vote for christmas. There is also a strong incumbent effect and an inertia that resists change. See Alba in Scotland for example.
After indy the SNP would have the bandwagon effect. Voter recognition etc. Nobody in the SNP who wanted to influence the direction an indy Scotland took would be leaving to set up other parties.
Agreed - Frelimo in Mozambique, HDZ in Croatia, the PDK in Kosovo, the Mapai in Israel, the PAP in Singapore - all parties that led their countries to independence and continue to exist to this day! The SNP is not a single issue liberation front like the PLO - it is a modern democratic European political party.
Obviously it's possible that the SNP would dissolve after independence due to failures. And maybe there are some voters that would abandon them immediately upon independence. But that was never the SNP's intention, and obviously they intended their leader to become the (democratically elected) leader of an independent Scotland. Only a "brainless moron" would suggest otherwise...
"In an independent Scotland the SNP would soon cease to exist"
I believe that many current SNP MSPs agree with you, and have no intention of trying to gain independence as it would leave them unemployed. I reckon that both Swinney and Sturgeon enjoyed the trappings of government too much to give them until it is/was inevitable.
In my darker moments I sometimes wonder if the SNP are funded by unionists. I know it sounds daft, but if you were determined to preserve the United Kingdom would you be better off
a) Trying to make a cogent argument that the current UK government is the best thing for Scotland, or
b) Supporting an ineffectual and weak independence party that make it seem that Scots cannot govern themselves?
After indy the SNP would have the bandwagon effect. Voter recognition etc. Nobody in the SNP who wanted to influence the direction an indy Scotland took would be leaving to set up other parties.
No need the existing opposition parties would inevitable move beyond swapping thistles for roses, and develop their own identity, policy and politics.
Agreed - Frelimo in Mozambique, HDZ in Croatia, the PDK in Kosovo, the Mapai in Israel, the PAP in Singapore - all parties that led their countries to independence and continue to exist to this day! The SNP is not a single issue liberation front like the PLO - it is a modern democratic European political party.
Obviously it's possible that the SNP would dissolve after independence due to failures. And maybe there are some voters that would abandon them immediately upon independence. But that was never the SNP's intention, and obviously they intended their leader to become the (democratically elected) leader of an independent Scotland. Only a "brainless moron" would suggest otherwise...
I don’t think most people who predict their implosion literally mean the party disbanding - more a post Brexit Tory party, or even a ukip - where it is reborn.
yes Alex would likely have become the first Scottish PM but what did we end up with instead? Boris. Salmond probably wouldn’t have lasted long as post Indy years will be hard and he can’t blame others.
Yes, successfully delivering the UK from the clutches of the EU doesn't seem to have done the Tories much good electorally.
I'm sure that's different, but then so is comparing John Swinney to Nelson Mandela and Mahatma Gandhi.
In my darker moments I sometimes wonder if the SNP are funded by unionists. I know it sounds daft
It is. It requires you to believe that "unionists" are simultaneously running a shambolic government from London that's a disaster but also able to sustain a multidecades long expensive covert funding operation that put the SNP into government and wipe the floor with the unionist parties without anyone ever finding out.
Reform have now got an MSP (again). A list MSP for central Scotland who has defected from the Tories.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr74kg1vg4jo
A cynic might say that as the number 2 on the Central Scotland list for the 2021 election his seat was on a shoogly peg at next year's election. As number 1 on the Reform list he looks a cert on current polling.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Scottish_Parliament_election
"a multidecades long expensive covert funding operation"
Not multidecades, maybe about a decade 🙂
I'm not being serious, but sometimes I find it hard to think of another reason that the SNP seems to be hellbent upon not achieving independence.
I'm not being serious, but sometimes I find it hard to think of another reason that the SNP seems to be hellbent upon not achieving independence.
- you can’t get Indy without public support
- you probably don’t want Indy only marginal support (chaos, division)
- if you are constantly fighting losing Indy battles the opposition throw the waste of time your face
- if there’s no WM route to Indy it actually feeds Indy support because you are kept against your will / they must be scared we leave
- the longer some austerity power runs WM potentially the less deficit you start the new country with, and the more appealing change becomes.
- put all that together and the obvious strategy is patience.
I'm not being serious, but sometimes I find it hard to think of another reason that the SNP seems to be hellbent upon not achieving independence.
- you can’t get Indy without public support
- you probably don’t want Indy only marginal support (chaos, division)
- if you are constantly fighting losing Indy battles the opposition throw the waste of time your face
- if there’s no WM route to Indy it actually feeds Indy support because you are kept against your will / they must be scared we leave
- the longer some austerity power runs WM potentially the less deficit you start the new country with, and the more appealing change becomes.
- put all that together and the obvious strategy is patience.
Wait until England consumes itself with hatred then we’ll quietly sneak off after digging a deep **** off trench across the border, but if you’re not a dickhead then come on up, you’re most welcome
PCA - do you really think @Scotland independent would have been worse than the last 15 years of brexit, right wing governments, austerity and racist rhetoric from south of the border?
In my opinion the real sadness about not voting for independence in 2014 is that we missed out on the incredibly rare chance to build a better country It's not really about comparing ourselves to any other place but about what we can do ourselves.
A cynic might say that as the number 2 on the Central Scotland list for the 2021 election his seat was on a shoogly peg at next year's election. As number 1 on the Reform list he looks a cert on current polling.
Yeah, I watched his interview on the STV news last night and thought he looked very unconvincing. That makes much more sense than the honest reasons that he couldn't quite explain for jumping ship.
"PCA - do you really think @Scotland independent would have been worse than the last 15 years of brexit, right wing governments, austerity and racist rhetoric from south of the border?"
I'm not convinced that the Scottish government has been much better, no.
I'm not going to start doing a list as my purpose is not to run down Scotland or get into a 'but they ...' back and forth argument, but I will say I have been very disappointed about some things I believed we could improve: poverty, drug deaths, health.
Mostly it's just basic competence and conflict. I thought our parliament would show that we could do things better, but I don't believe we have demonstrated that. I think the people the independence movement needs, those who might be persuaded to vote Yes, would look at the last 10 years and think "Really? Why bother?".
Drug deaths - steps to improve the situation ( shooting galleries) blocked by westminster for a decade. Now going ahead
Healthcare - its 50% of the scottish budget. Its better than england tho thats not saying a lot. No medical staff strikes, Nurses are better paid than in England. without the ability to raise significantly more money its not really possible to improve and of course we are saddled with the absurdly expensive PFI contract for ERI
"Drug deaths - steps to improve the situation ( shooting galleries) blocked by westminster for a decade. Now going ahead"
The law hasn't changed. They could have done it a decade ago. Not that I am convinced helping addicts to stay on drugs is the answer. There is a study to evaluate the effect of the Glasgow facility. Not reporting until 2029 so that is it kicked down the road a bit.
https://www.stir.ac.uk/research/hub/contract/1954762
https://www.copfs.gov.uk/about-copfs/news/prosecution-policy-on-glasgow-drug-consumption-facility/
The edicts from Westminster have changed. It was completely blocked for years
Dunno how good this source is but I have followed this for years as I have also worked in Drug rehab
The Commons Home Affairs Committee has recommended that safe consumption rooms, which the SNP government has long said should be used as a means of curbing Scotland’s persistently high drug-death figures, should be piloted with a view to informaing legislative changes.
Scotland has the highest drug-death rate in Europe, with recent figures showing that 1,051 people died due to drug misuse last year, but drugs policy is reserved to Westminster.
The Conservative government has consistently blocked SNP plans to introduce safe consumption rooms, which allow people to take drugs in a clean environment under supervision, saying they would be at odds with the 1971 Misuse of Drugs Act.
“Safe consumption facilities, where people who use drugs may do so in safe, secure surroundings, may also reduce harm and deaths, but the status of such facilities is uncertain because of the restrictive regime in place under the 1971 act,” the committee said in its report.
“We recommend that the government support a pilot facility in Glasgow and create a legislative pathway to enable more.”
The Scottish Government has been pressing for a so-called safe consumption facility to be set up, with efforts on this having so far been blocked by Westminster.
But the Home Affairs Committee has now published a report recommending a pilot in Glasgow is supported by Westminster and jointly funded by both governments.
https://news.stv.tv/scotland/safe-drug-consumption-rooms-should-be-piloted-in-the-uk-mps-say
My point stands. The UK govt has refused to change the law. The pilot went ahead on the basis of the Crown Office stating it was not in the public interest to charge drug users in a facility. The same thing could have been done any time in the last decade.
Which is a bit of a mystery. THe SNP being happy to push the devolved/UK boundary on other issues.
Easier to blame Westminster despite drug deaths being far lower in England where the same drug laws apply.
"However, despite what Gray sees as the Thistle’s evidence of early success, UK Home Office minister Dame Diana Johnson said the law will not be changed to make it easier for other facilities like it to be opened.
The Thistle facility was launched in Scotland following a decision by the Crown Office not to prosecute drug users, but there’s uncertainty over its long-term legal status."
The actual change is the select committee recommendations and a change in administration in westminster. It could not have been set up a decade ago when first mooted. Thats just a basic fact.
yes the law has not changed but its now recommended as a pilot by the westminster committee giving legal cover.