MegaSack DRAW - This year's winner is user - rgwb
We will be in touch
I grasped your point and answered it in my view, I think you are missing the context of my post when chopping snippets.
Do you accept the 55% of remainers are the majority in Scotland? in my view it was clearly decided in a very recent ref where everyone was well aware of the significance...which makes any talk of 'nobody is listening' sound a bit crazy don't you think?
So you would be happy to leave the union with a 51/49 split? Fair enough I guess as you I assume are on the other side of that fence currently, it just looks very messy to me if you can't create a clear majority going forward
slackalice
Subscriber
I thought the Bank of Scotland had already been bought by the people? 😉
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/uk-international-reserves/2019/january-2019
UK International Reserves - January 2019
The Bank of England manages the UK’s official reserves on behalf of the Government.
Speaking of assets, lets have a gander at countries assets minus liabilities.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_wealth
country - (billions)
UK - $14,630
So doing some fag packet economics. Scotland is 8.2% of the uk population.
So 8.2% of uk assets and liabilities $1,199.66bn
Lets have a look at similar size countries, ie about 5 million people, near by:
Ireland - $951bn
Norway - $1,096bn
Slovakia - $287bn
Finland - $795bn
Denmark - $1,271bn
Scotland seems fairly well placed to me.
I thought the Bank of Scotland had already been bought by the people
Again,more sneering ignorance from those south of the border who are unable to understand the difference between the Bank of Scotland and the Royal Bank of Scotland. Keep it up
And yes, we'll take our share of the debt too.
Sitting about £1,821.3bn for the uk. x 0.082 Scotland's share. £149.4bn.
Ideas that Scotland can't afford independence are nonsense.
Going on my fag packet ecomonics, IS could start debt free with a positive balance of about $1trillion dollars or about £750/800bn
So you would be happy to leave the union with a 51/49 split?
I think using simple majority referendums to decide issues of major national importance has been demonstrated to be a very bad idea. However, that cat is well and truly out of the bag now, so I think the answer to your question has to be "yes".
Do you accept the 55% of remainers are the majority in Scotland?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence
Recent polling suggests pro union is struggling to get above 50%.
Lets see how that changes over the next couple of years.
Sorry don't know how to quote but in response to:
ideas that Scotland can’t afford independence are nonsense.
I'm not saying you are wrong, I'm not sure, but aren't Scotland dependent on money from the Barnett formula every year to meet their annual spending? I also read somewhere that 60 to 70% of their trade us with England and Wales, and only 10 to 20% is with the EU. Also, Scotlands budget deficit is much higher than Englands, I think 6 or 7 times higher. Again, no link so not sure, but if the above is correct surely this would mean that Scotland would struggle to afford independence and maintain their current public spending and tax ratio. Finally, there is an element of doubt that the EU would definitely let Scotland rejoin after they leave next year, although if it came to that I really hope they would. I would have thought something would have to give based on these simple economics, but I'll happily concede I'm no expert and may be wrong.
Yep, my apologies for my cheap shot re the BoS. I was out of order.
exsee
Do you accept the 55% of remainers are the majority in Scotland? in my view it was clearly decided in a very recent ref where everyone was well aware of the significance…which makes any talk of ‘nobody is listening’ sound a bit crazy don’t you think?
Do you accept that democracy allows people to change their minds? If not, why do we have elections?
Let's look at just one large voting bloc as an example. The Scots govt estimates that there are about 240,000 EU residents, and about another 110,000 from other countries.
During that referendum, the Unionist side made much of "You'll be out of the EU", no trade agreements etc.
Most Scots want to stay in the EU, so that was effective, especially as "nationalistic" Scotland allows EU citizens to vote here.
With 240,000 EU residents fearing for their right to stay in Scotland, their vote predictably strongly supported the Union.
The difference between the 2 sides in the referendum was 400,000 votes, so a bloc of 240k+ would have swung it the other way.
(A considerable proportion of the many English born people also voted to stay in the Union - which is no surprise. Perhaps that would be different this time too.)
Now we are leaving the EU in a referendum in which EU residents had no say, which way do you think the EU residents in Scotland will vote in a new referendum?
Sorry don’t know how to quote but in response to:
ideas that Scotland can’t afford independence are nonsense.
I’m not saying you are wrong, I’m not sure, but aren’t Scotland dependent on money from the Barnett formula every year to meet their annual spending? I also read somewhere that 60 to 70% of their trade us with England and Wales, and only 10 to 20% is with the EU. Also, Scotlands budget deficit is much higher than Englands, I think 6 or 7 times higher. Again, no link so not sure, but if the above is correct surely this would mean that Scotland would struggle to afford independence and maintain their current public spending and tax ratio. Finally, there is an element of doubt that the EU would definitely let Scotland rejoin after they leave next year, although if it came to that I really hope they would. I would have thought something would have to give based on these simple economics, but I’ll happily concede I’m no expert and may be wrong.
The UK has been dependent on borrowing forever, not like scotland is alone, The books look ok for england at a minute, but lets not pretend that's the norm. It's not unusual for a country to run itself as such.
The deficit is about 8% the now, about £12bn, high, but it's not un-manageable. Borrowing will be available to Scotland, same as it is to every other country on earth. Even if not, 12bn per year, is only about 1 to 1.5% of the assets and liabilities that scotland would have post split, so there would be time to balance the books. Either by austerity, or by growing the economy.
Where's the doubt in rejoining the EU coming form? Where's the evidence that EU isn't going to want to welcome existing EU citizens back into the fold with anything more than open arms?
Just look how much support they've given Ireland recently, Boris crumbled under that and sold the DUP down the river. The EU is more than willing to back EU small nations. I doubt very much Scotland will be viewed as a "new" member given our history as being EU citizens for the last 40 years. The EU are well aware Scotland is pro-EU.
The EU are all about growing it's size and influence, they aren't going to say no to Scotland. Why would the EU say no to turning a large part of the island of Britain back into EU territory? Where's the negative for them in that?
I'd also put the question back to you, why will trade between Scotland and rUK disappear?
I thought the post Brexit uk was all about trade?
It's touted quite often that Scotland is dependent on the rest of the UK but it's hard to fathom. Nationalist propaganda would say that we have more arable land, natural resources, renewable resources, tourism, etc per head than any of the rest of the UK which I'd tend to believe. It's also mentioned that Scotland's exports go via English ports and thus are included in the UK figures rather than Scottish. I'd also hope we wouldn't waste money on nuclear weapons or trying to pretend we are still a super power. Nae expert either mind you and I'm sure someone will have 'facts' to disprove any of the above.
The government of France recently bought a landmark building on Edinburgh's Royal Mile which they currently operate as an Institute Français. It's far too big and prominent for a Consulate (in any event they already have one of those in Edinburgh), but about the right size for an Embassy.
If you're reading the tea leaves that'll tell you something about EU attitude to Scotland.
Scotland has most of the EUs oil, most of its fish, most of its wind and tidal power potential and would be a net contributor. Plus how much would they enjoy sticking two fingers up to little england? Its a given that scotland would be welcomed back into the EU indeed the day after a yes vote I would bet the EU would find some nice transiutional arrangements to make this as smooth as possible
I dunno why folk on heree have said England would remain in alignment with the EU. It will not. thats been the aim of Johnsons paymasters - lower standards in everything
kennyp
Subscriber
Well given that 55% of folk who voted
in Scotlandnationally voted for parties explicitly opposed toa second independence referendumBoris Johnston's brexit then it’s hard to see how theSNPgovernment can claim a clear mandate.
How's that? The mandate for a new independence referendum from this election is stronger than the mandate for Johnston's brexit. (it is 46/54 not 45/55 incidentally- everyone forgets the Greens) If one is a mandate then both are. And they both are. The way this line's getting trotted out against that background is just crazy.
This idea that you have to have a majority of support for anything doesn't seem to apply anywhere else in UK politics. 45% is enough for a majority government, do we think that the UK government doesn't have a mandate to rule because of that? Should the tories drop everything from their manifesto that didn't have the support of one other party? No.
molgrips
Subscriber
It is, of course. And yet I still did. Because that’s what it looks like. You’re doing that arguing technique where you’re trying to make me look silly because I disagree with obvious facts, whereas in fact I am disputing that they are facts in the first place.
Um, no, I'm not doing any "arguing technique" apart from pointing out you're seeing something where there's no reason to see it. Epicyclo's post isn't even directed at any nationality. Companies aren't people. I'll just repost it for clarity:
epicyclo
Subscriber
Business abhors a vacuum so they would quickly be replaced. Only the new businesses would be paying tax and contributing to the economy instead of being parasites like those we lost.
Seriously, you are jumping at shadows. There's nothing there that even looks like anti-english sentiment, or nationalism for that matter. Unless you can show me where it is in that? No.
exsee
Member
Do you accept the 55% of remainers are the majority in Scotland?
I accept that the 55% of No voters in 2014 was the majority in 2014. I don't think there's any reason to assume that with the seismic changes in UK politics that this one thing hasn't changed while so much around it has. Especially considering what the key points of the argument were last time.
And every one of the changes which makes a new referendum likely were done by "unionists". Cameron sowed the seeds of Brexit, Johnston will deliver it. Cameron said "better together" then the day after the referendum said "english votes for english laws", called the first minister of scotland a pickpocket, and ran his next election campaign largely around bashing the scots. The tories gave us 5 years of austerity, 5 years of economic flatlining and mismanagement. And we ain't seen nothing yet.
The SNP opposed literally all of these things. But they happened anyway, because in the UK we don't have the power to prevent a government we rejected from doing what they want. And so the actions of unionists, resisted by scottish nationalists, have brought us to a point where another referendum beckons, where nothing we or the SNP could have done themselves would have brought that about. Funny old world, eh.
:large
Quote from above:
I’d also put the question back to you, why will trade between Scotland and rUK disappear?
I thought the post Brexit uk was all about trade?
I think you're right. I was referring to some arguments I had read in response to a Scottish referendum, and was just asking questions really, not arguing against you. I'm in favour of indyref2. I personally predict that trade would carry on fine as I said in my original post, just like I think it will for the wider UK with the EU after Brexit.
Still, it doesn't really marry up to what Sturgeon has been saying. She can't credibly claim that leaving the EU would be bad for the UK economy due to uncertainty etc, but then on the other hand claim leaving the UK would be totally fine. Scotland does a lot more trade with England than the EU. She seems to apply the same logic differently to Brexit and Scottish independence to me. So, either she is overestimating the damage of Brexit, or underestimating the potential dangers of independence.
Not got a dog in this fight and amnot Scottish but to repeat as I said in the last INDYREF thread,let the people decide.However
She seems to apply the same logic differently to Brexit and Scottish independence to me.
SNP haven't even got a majority in the Scottish parliament and in fact got less votes overall than the opposing parties,who are ostensibly for the union.The SNP should wait until the next Scottish elections and if they are in the majority then should pursue the 2nd referendum route,however does that mean there'll be a referendum every time they get a majority as opposed to once in a generation?
got less votes overall than the opposing parties,who are ostensibly for the union.
But you know that's not how it works, right? When is the last time any UK Govt got the majority of the votes? In any case, the Greens are also pro-independence, so there's your majority of MSPs
nick1962
Member
SNP haven’t even got a majority in the Scottish parliament
Pro-independence parties have a majority in the scottish parliament- you forgot the greens (everyone forgets the greens). Does that overcome your opposition?
Tom Zesty
Member
Quote from above:I’d also put the question back to you, why will trade between Scotland and rUK disappear?
I thought the post Brexit uk was all about trade?I think you’re right. I was referring to some arguments I had read in response to a Scottish referendum, and was just asking questions really, not arguing against you. I’m in favour of indyref2. I personally predict that trade would carry on fine as I said in my original post, just like I think it will for the wider UK with the EU after Brexit.
Still, it doesn’t really marry up to what Sturgeon has been saying. She can’t credibly claim that leaving the EU would be bad for the UK economy due to uncertainty etc, but then on the other hand claim leaving the UK would be totally fine. Scotland does a lot more trade with England than the EU. She seems to apply the same logic differently to Brexit and Scottish independence to me. So, either she is overestimating the damage of Brexit, or underestimating the potential dangers of independence.
The scottish government had control over £37bn of scotlands funding for 18/19. It has limited borrowing powers, took £450m(max it can borrow) in 17/18, and £250m in 18/19.
In the Gers figures it says Scotlands public expenditure was £75bn, and revenue was £63bn. (These are estimates largely btw, but I've no real reason to doubt they'll be there or there abouts.)
The SNPs argument is basically that with full control over fiscal powers it'll be able to control and grow the ecomony in a more beneficial way than can be done under current arrangements.
So the economic argument is different from that of the UK leaving the EU. The EU doesn't control half of the UKs finances.
Whether the SNP can actually grow the economy if it had full control is another matter I guess and up for debate. We'll only really find out for sure if that happens though.
FYi:
Scottish governments accounts 18/19:
GERS 18/19:
Does that overcome your opposition?
No opposition at all personally was just putting myself in the shoes of what a Scottish voter was told at the last referendum.
TBH most folk in England I meet couldn't really GAS what Scotland chooses to do if the British government deigns you another opportunity 😉
Would Scotland go € do you think? Pr has it been said previously?
personally I think going to the euro would make sense - but there is a lot of politics around currency.
Going on my fag packet ecomonics, IS could start debt free with a positive balance of about $1trillion dollars or about £750/800bn
Should be noted I'm talking shit on that point I'm conflating unrelated data.
The £1tr is a quick estimate of the balance of Scotland's wider economy. We would be liable for our part of the debt still. You cant subtract the debt from that.
On the debt. Uk interest payments are about £50bn so a large part of Scotland's deficit goes to servicing that existing debt. About 4 to 5bn you could say I'd think.
@Northwind - is that Alex Salmond about to pinch someone's bottom?
That's taken a new spin since his fall from grace...
Interesting. Labour obviously panicking!
Or they've just realised there will never be another party leader from Scotland and have decided they'd rather be big fish in a smaller pond.
I'm interested in this as I was brought up in Scotland and my Mother and Sister still live there. I'll acknowledge first of all that I haven't read through the whole thread so what I have to say may have already been covered in which case I apologise.
The thing is even if Scotland were to get another referendum and opt out of the union as I understand it their membership of the EU wouldn't be a given. All major changes to the EU have to be by a unanimous vote and Scotland would have to apply as others before them have had to do. Now other countries wanting to join may feel Scotland shouldn't 'jump the queue' and Spain as a current member I'm pretty sure would veto any application involving Scotlands membership because of their claim to Gibraltar being constantly denied. So surely the reality is that Scotlands percieved transition from one Union to another is much less straight forward than just getting indyref2 over the line.
Aye, but in reality, we're heading out of europe anyway, with zero hope of ever getting back in, so mibbe joining this supposed 'queue' isn't as bad as it sounds.
I'd happily take the euro as well btw.
@tjagain & @Nobeerinthefridge
Ah well, I'll just treat the trip to Fort Bill the same as Morzine, keep an eye on the exchange rates.
There is no "queue". Countries apply for membership and accede when all of the accords are met.
The Spanish government has repeatedly said that they see no reason to veto Scotlands entry.
There is no guarantee that Scotland would get immediate entry and the more time between UK leaving and Scotland applying, the more divergence there would be.
BruceWee
Member
Or they’ve just realised there will never be another party leader from Scotland and have decided they’d rather be big fish in a smaller pond.
Regardless of their motives, whether for or against, if they move for it... Surely must mean it becomes impossible for a ref to get denied. 2/3rd of the Scottish parliament representing about 2/3rd of the population would be in favour.
Even if they made it wait til after the Scottish elections still likely to return the similar numbers. Perhaps reduced a bit but way above 50. 60% bare minimum is think, likely 70%.
It's perfectly reasonable that Labour can support the call for a referendum without desiring independence.
Scottish labour IMO should be looking at a proper federal system for the UK along with proper constitutional reform for the UK as a whole from london labour
I do not know how anyone can complain that there is no mandate for a second referendum. Majority of votes and MSPs at Holyrood and a vast majority of MPs with around 50% of the vote ( yes add to the SNP vote the green vote and the other small pro independence parties)
So, as the years roll on after Brexit and the bed wetters are proved wrong, we don't eat our cats and Trump signs don't hang from every hospital...
Does that strengthen the scotsit case or weaken it?
So, as the years roll on after Brexit and the bed wetters are proved wrong, we don’t eat our cats and Trump signs don’t hang from every hospital…
Does that strengthen the scotsit case or weaken it?
Firstly lets deal with the question you really wanted to ask. Am I a massive dick?
Yes. Yes you are.
As to your second question, it depends on whether you're talking about pure economics or the democratic deficit. If your dreams all come true and BlowJobBob turns out to be the 2nd coming, the British Empire is restored, and we all have a different supercar parked in our mile long driveway for each day of the week it still won't make the democratic deficit go away.
75% of people in Scotland voted for parties that either wanted to remain in the EU or were promising a 2nd referendum with a remain option. The wishes of Scottish voters do not matter to the UK.
How’s that? The mandate for a new independence referendum from this election is stronger than the mandate for Johnston’s brexit. (it is 46/54 not 45/55 incidentally- everyone forgets the Greens) If one is a mandate then both are. And they both are. The way this line’s getting trotted out against that background is just crazy.
I've never actually tried to claim Boris has a mandate for Brexit. I think in both cases the claim of a democratic mandate is false.
I’ve never actually tried to claim Boris has a mandate for Brexit. I think in both cases the claim of a democratic mandate is false.
I agree, a general election is not the place to determine the answer to binary questions.
However, 75% of people in Scotland voted for parties saying they would stop Brexit or offer a remain option in a second referendum.
The fact that Scotland wants to remain in the EU is beyond question. The only option for that is now independence so I think asking the Scottish people if they want to remain badly enough to leave the UK is reasonable.
I do not know how anyone can complain that there is no mandate for a second referendum. Majority of votes and MSPs at Holyrood and a vast majority of MPs with around 50% of the vote ( yes add to the SNP vote the green vote and the other small pro independence parties)
Please show the evidence for pro independence parties having the majority of the votes at Holyrood. Majority of MSPs yes, but that's purely down to the fact that the pro-union vote is split between the three main parties.
The reason people say there is no mandate for a second referendum is because the majority of Scottish voters do not want one. If that changes then yes, let's do it, but to be honest I would rather there was a change to the voting systems at both Holyrood and Westminster to being proper PR ones.
The reason people say there is no mandate for a second referendum is because the majority of Scottish voters do not want one
TBF, we don't know that. We'd need a referendum on whether or not to have a referendum.
The fact that Scotland wants to remain in the EU is beyond question. The only option for that is now independence so I think asking the Scottish people if they want to remain badly enough to leave the UK is reasonable.
Actually I said something similar earlier in the thread (admittedly contradicting myself in some respects). What I suggested though was waiting a few years till we see how Brexit pans out. Then we would be voting from a more informed position. At the moment feelings are running too high, on both sides.
A common complaint about Brexit was that people didn't know exactly what they were voting for. If there were to be a second independence vote tomorrow then the same applies. Why not leave it a while and see where we are further down the line.
Alternatively why not negotiate the terms of a deal on independence first, then put that to the people? Then we all know exactly what we are voting for.
Firstly lets deal with the question you really wanted to ask. Am I a massive dick?Yes. Yes you are.
As to your second question, it depends on whether you’re talking about pure economics or the democratic deficit. If your dreams all come true and BlowJobBob turns out to be the 2nd coming, the British Empire is restored, and we all have a different supercar parked in our mile long driveway for each day of the week it still won’t make the democratic deficit go away.
75% of people in Scotland voted for parties that either wanted to remain in the EU or were promising a 2nd referendum with a remain option. The wishes of Scottish voters do not matter to the UK.
Thank you for clearing up the first question.
You haven't addressed the second. I'll rephrase it.
So, as the years roll on after Brexit and the wise amongst us are proved correct, we've had to eat our cats and Trump signs hang from every hospital…
Does that strengthen the scotsit case or weaken it?
TBF, we don’t know that. We’d need a referendum on whether or not to have a referendum.
Indeed, and we can see the logical conclusion to that ie the neverendum!
However what evidence we do have suggests the majority of voters don't want one. Am happy to be proved wrong though.
So, as the years roll on after Brexit and the wise amongst us are proved correct, we’ve had to eat our cats and Trump signs hang from every hospital…
Does that strengthen the scotsit case or weaken it?
If trump signs are hanging from every hospital, it most definitely strengthens the case for independence.
Please show the evidence for pro independence parties having the majority of the votes at Holyrood. Majority of MSPs yes, but that’s purely down to the fact that the pro-union vote is split between the three main parties.
The reason people say there is no mandate for a second referendum is because the majority of Scottish voters do not want one. If that changes then yes, let’s do it, but to be honest I would rather there was a change to the voting systems at both Holyrood and Westminster to being proper PR ones.
The natural conclusion of your argument is that you need 50% of the electorate to do anything.
Which is nonsense.
Incidently, polling says neither side can particularly maintain 50%... hanging on to a 5 year old result doesn't particularly cut it tbh..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence
Brexit is (and will become more of) a shitshow, but no matter what anyone says even with brexit right in front of us and johnson in #10, the SNP didn't get as much % vote as it has in previous elections.
That might change, but its a terrible sign for independence.
Even the SNPs own document says that, independent and with massive (unrealistic) growth, we'd probably be out of europe for 25 years before we met the economic requirements for rejoining.
(If you disagree, then please explain why the SNPs own report didn't make your point, and does make mine).
No waffling about wind, waves, whisky and hidden oil will change that.
The election results were fsking depressing, but at least in Scotland the NHS may be safer under SNP incompetence than under johnsons active attack, and the bright hope for the future is that a majority of people UK wide don't support boris, and a majority in scotland don't support the SNP.
So, nationalists abound, but not yet in the majority.
TBH Killing the first past the post electoral system would be a better use of our time than trying to kill the union (against the wished of the majority of people in scotland).
TBH Killing the first past the post electoral system
Never going to happen.
Link us up to the docs and specific section you are talking about to I have a gander?
seosamh
Does the last few years of UK politics not act as even a slight warning of making masssive decisions on the basis of a wafer thin majority?
Well, I've been councilling a 2030 ref for the last few years tbh. So yes, it's absolutely had an effect on my thinking. Mostly cause I thought brexit would get beat.
But it didn't, so I'm all for a 2023/24 referendum now.. The majority should be a good few wafers thick by then, imo.
I think this might be the most recent poll on support for a referendum.
Of course, that's all prior to the latest GE and the surety of Brexit.
KennyP - actually I looked up the mnumbers and you are right - its just under 50% - but still - the majority of MSPs, the majority of MPs, and polling for independence at 50+ % seems like a mandate for a second ref to me. Not a mandate for UDI but one for a second ref
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/08/my-scotland-poll-yes-to-independence-takes-the-lead/
The natural conclusion of your argument is that you need 50% of the electorate to do anything.
Which is nonsense.
That's not the natural conclusion and therefore isn't (the rather insulting term but let's try and keep it civil) nonsense.
In many respects a government has to take decisions based on selecting one of an almost limitless series of options. In areas ranging from health, education, defence etc etc. We all accept that I think. It's not practicable to do otherwise. Or are you suggesting we should have a referendum on every single political option?
However something like a referendum on independence is a straightforward binary yes/no choice. All I am suggesting is we respect the wishes of the majority of the voters. Or (as I mentioned above) negotiate the terms of independence first then put that to the voters.
Is that unreasonable?
Enjoy, thought y'all might have read it already?
https://www.sustainablegrowthcommission.scot/report
Spoilers; It probably doesn't say what you think it will. It promises at least 10 years of austerity, and even with massive positive spin, its not enough to fund a country.
We've already shown you the evidence, there isn't a majority either way. And attitudes are moving and will move further, and there's a large 10% undecided.
We'll find out next year anyhow, Boris, will stick Gove in our faces until then, while he gets on with getting brexit done, and giving some trinkets like decriminalising the TV license to the nordies for a year..
By all means keep arguing and working for what you believe in, but please try to use actual facts and economic reality to achieve it or you're just another brexit waiting to happen to the people who can least afford it.
You cannot negotiate first and then have a ref. What could be done is a two stage ref ie one on the principle then negotiate then one on the deal
IMO the scots electorate splits pretty much into thirds on this. The ideological pro independence side for whom self determination is worth it no matter the price, the ideological unionists for whom nothing is worth independence and then the pragmatists like me in the middle. I want a progressive government and a better society. I look to countries like the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweeden and despair at the state of our country. Now I would like the UK to follow that sort of road but clearly it will not. So the only way I can get what I want is via independence for Scotland - a Scotland unhindered by the hard right xenophobic nonsense that pervades much of England
Thats my decision based on my understanding of the situation and my judgement on what will make my life and those of my fellow citizens
Its this pragmatic group in the middle that needs to be persuaded by one side or the other
eat_the_pudding
Member
Enjoy, thought y’all might have read it already?> https://www.sustainablegrowthcommission.scot/report < Spoilers; It probably doesn’t say what you think it will. It promises at least 10 years of austerity, and even with massive positive spin, its not enough to fund a country.
Have not, , but as you can see by the last page, I'm going through the process of properly re-aquainting myself with the figures, it's been a while, so happy enough to have a gander, cheers. I've a decent enough grasp of the figures though, and looking to learn more.
Incidentally, the uk doesn't have enough to fund a country either, hence the 4.5 trillion of liabilities against 2 trillion of assets! 😆
It doesn't really seem to stop the majority of countries in the world!
TJ, the majority of MPs etc thing is, as has been said many times, down to the voting system. The independence thing vote is focussed almost exclusively (yes, I kn ow about the Greens) on the SNP whereas the pro-union vote is split largely between three main parties.
Polls can be used to show just about anything (remember that classic Yes Minister episode where Sir Humphrey shows how to get the result you want?). But since 2014 the bulk of polls have shown support for a second vote to be below 50%. So I'm afraid I have to disagree that there is a mandate for yet another referendum.
That said, if I thought another vote would bury the issue once and for all then, as I've said above, I'd be in favour. However on here a few years ago I asked epicyclo if he would accept the result of a second vote. He said he wouldn't. Same with most SNP voters I have asked, though not all. The general consensus among them is that Scotland should be made to vote time and time again until we do the "correct" thing. And after that no more referenda.
Its this pragmatic group in the middle that needs to be persuaded by one side or the other
I'm that that group. I can't stand Boris and his cronies. I am also very pro-EU. However I also like to think Britain can change and that we are better off staying together.
So you and I both agree and disagree.
kennyp
Subscriber
TJ, the majority of MPs etc thing is, as has been said many times, down to the voting system. The independence thing vote is focussed almost exclusively (yes, I kn ow about the Greens) on the SNP whereas the pro-union vote is split largely between three main parties.
You seem to be equating vote for a party as a direct 1 to 1 for or against independence support. It's not that simple.
See the link I posted earlier, today labour are even considering supporting a ref as they know they are constantly haemorrhaging support to the SNP over the issue.
You seem to be equating vote for a party as a direct 1 to 1 for or against independence support. It’s not that simple.
See the link I posted earlier, today labour are even considering supporting a ref as they know they are constantly haemorrhaging support to the SNP over the issue.
Agreed, it's not that simple. However the only firm evidence we have to go on are the election results and they consistently show no support for yet another vote.
If Labour do change their minds and people vote for that then fine, no problem. But until then......
I can't find the link but I remember reading recently that Nicola Sturgeon said that a Yes vote in a future referendum need not be binding and could be overturned in a confirmatory referendum.
I think this could be the way they plan on going. A first referendum with a straight Yes/No option and then a confirmatory referendum on the withdrawl agreement.
Interesting Kenny - I had you down and an ideological unionist as that is how you present. I guess you are arguing sceptically or devils advocate?
I too would like a fairer UK - but that is never going to happen is it? We now live in a UK that is a elected dictatorship with the tories controlling most of the media, being able to outspend all other parties and setting out to gerrymander their advantage further.
So for me the only question remaining is " is an independent Scotland viable?" to which the answer must be yes. Denmark, Ireland, Netherlands, Sweden. finland all can manage - why can we not?
If Labour do change their minds and people vote for that then fine, no problem. But until then……
I'm fairly patient tbh.
Kenny - also the other smaller parties that got a few % of the vote - also pro independence mainly.
kennyp
So I’m afraid I have to disagree that there is a mandate for yet another referendum.
Ah, the convolutions of Unionism when faced with democratic results they don't like.
The Tories with about 60% of the seats in the UK now are acknowledged as having a clear mandate for Brexit.
Just about everyone accepts this.
The Westminster controlled parties in Scotland campaigned on a simple message "Vote for us to stop IndyRef2" and the SNP then won 80% of the seats in Scotland and the Westminster parties all lost seats in Scotland.
How is that not even better than a clear Brexit mandate?
However on here a few years ago I asked epicyclo if he would accept the result of a second vote. He said he wouldn’t. Same with most SNP voters I have asked, though not all.
Are people who support Labour and the LibDems now expected to give up supporting Labour etc because the Tories won this election? So why should I stop supporting what I believe is best for my country? Independence is a process.
Agreed, it’s not that simple. However the only firm evidence we have to go on are the election results and they consistently show no support for yet another vote.
I'm going to keep hammering this point because I think it's important. 75% of people in Scotland voted for remain parties or parties in favour of having a 2nd referendum with a remain option.
The fact that Scotland wants to remain is beyond argument and I really don't see any way the wishes of those people can be respected without an independence referendum.
BruceWee
Member
I can’t find the link but I remember reading recently that Nicola Sturgeon said that a Yes vote in a future referendum need not be binding and could be overturned in a confirmatory referendum.
She's absolutely against that. Straight up refused in an interview or a debate, canny mind.
The Tories with about 60% of the seats in the UK now are acknowledged as having a clear mandate for Brexit. Just about everyone accepts this.
I get where kennyp is coming from with this. Two wrongs don't make a right.
However, we're playing a rigged game. If we try to play fair it's just going to end in tears. I'll go along with the narrative that the SNP has a mandate for another referendum because that's the game we're playing but I'm not comfortable with it.
I'm much more comfortable emphasising the 75% voting for remain parties.
She’s absolutely against that. Straight up refused in an interview or a debate, canny mind.
Found it:
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17917490.sturgeon-confirms-yes-vote-independence-reversed/
But yeah, I also found articles where she seemed to rule it out so who knows.
epicyclo, you must know that % of vote is more important indicator of support for a referendum than number of seats in a FPTP election. I realise that superficially looks better for your argument but its disingenuous. In scotland particularly there was no downside to voting snp in europe AND have
independence. But far less than 50% of people did that.
Why do you think that is?
Johnsons election victory gives him the ability to do brexit but not a mandate.
BruceWee, Don't confuse peoples desire to be part of one union (the EU) as a desire to leave another (the UK).
I think the next set of opinion polls on this will be interesting. I would be very suprised if it is not a significant majority for independence
The Westminster controlled parties in Scotland campaigned on a simple message “Vote for us to stop IndyRef2” and the SNP then won 80% of the seats in Scotland
The Westminster controlled parties in Scotland campaigned on a simple message “Vote for us to stop IndyRef2” and as a result got 55% of the vote, a clear democratic message.
Fixed that for you. Or does democracy only work one way?
So why should I stop supporting what I believe is best for my country?
You should certainly continue to support whatever you like. What I am saying however is that the result of a second vote (if there is one) should be respected for at least the now proverbial generation.
BruceWee, Don’t confuse peoples desire to be part of one union (the EU) as a desire to leave another (the UK).
I'm not. I'm saying the vast majority in Scotland voted to remain in the EU, both in the referendum and in all further elections. It's beyond question.
If there is a way to do that that doesn't involve independence then I'm all ears.
If the only option to stay in the EU is independence then the SNP and every other remain party have a duty to put that question to the Scottish people.
I know its hard, but can you imagine a situation where short term pish and lies led to a referendum victory, but then additional information led to a majority being against it by the time it happened?
Is that really the "better" country you would want scotland to be?
Born in lies and perpetuated by ignoring the views of the people of scotland (whose opinion was the most important thing in the world a few years before?)
A small scale (50%+1) referendum will get you that and it would not be a good thing.
scexit on those terms would be brexit squared.
Interesting Kenny – I had you down and an ideological unionist as that is how you present. I guess you are arguing sceptically or devils advocate?
If I had to describe my politics as anything it would be the old fashioned one nation conservatism. I am probably jut slightly right of centre. I have voted Conservative in the past but at the moment I wouldn't even consider it. Boris is a lying two faced hard right thug. The party closest to my own views at the moment are the Lib Dems. In fact if it wasn't for the independence thing I would actually consider voting SNP. I respect Nicola as a person and many of their other policies I quite agree with.
I am also not one of these people who think independence for Scotland would be a disaster. There is a case to be made for it. However I just don't think the case is strong enough. Breaking up a 300 year old union because a particular party is in power temporarily doesn't make sense to me.
kennyp, do you believe there is still a chance the UK can remain in the EU?
If so, how do you see it happening?
kennyp, do you believe there is still a chance the UK can remain in the EU?
If so, how do you see it happening?
I think the chances are very slim. I was as depressed as anyone on Thursday night. I think the best we can now hope for, in the short term, is a deal where we are part in part out. My hope is that a few years down the line we reapply, though that might still be a decade or more away.
If the only option to REJOIN the EU is independence then the SNP and every other remain party have a duty to put that question to the Scottish people..
FIFY