Scotland Indyref 2

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chewkw - Member
If West Minister refuses the Scots the referendum there is nothing the Scots can do about it regardless of how loud they shout, really. Absolutely nothing they can do about it....

Fortunately for you I have just completed a 3 week correspondence course in DIY neurosurgery and so I have been able to diagnose your derangement problem.

Get an effing big Black and Decker with at least a ?" bit, head to the toilet, open the lid. Now carefully position your head over the bowl and drill 3 or 4 holes in your skull.

Once the shit that passes for your brain has drained out, you'll feel so much better.

Even if you don't, most Scots on here will. 🙂

epicyclo - Member
Look mate, I know you have serious mental problems, but your history is skewed too.

Again I ask you this question what if West Minister refuses Scotland another referendum what can you do about it?

I have no problem with Scotland wanting an independence but you really need to provide honest reasons.

That excuse about joining EU bureaucratic system is so lame you deserve Edward Longshanks rising from his grave to give you a good hammering again and again until sense gets into you.

If it is the blood feud from the past with your English siblings then just say so as nobody is going to blame you for that, be honest and stop those silly talks about joining EU bureaucratic silly system.

You have a better chance of gaining independence by blaming the hammering of Edward Longshanks then the excuse of joining silly EU bureaucratic system.

🙄

chewkw - Member
Again I ask you this question what if West Minister refuses Scotland another referendum what can you do about it?

We live in a parliamentary democracy. How can the UK call itself democratic if it ignores it's parliaments?

With enough popular support Scotland can, with considerable effort, tell Westminster to go **** itself and dissolve the union regardless.

I'm not currently seeing that level of support but it's certainly possible.

Not really a helpful point of view tbh. UDI is cloud cuckoo land.

seosamh77 - Member
Not really the question that needs answering. The question is can westminster morally ignore the democratic will of the people of scotland?

Yes, West Minister can morally ignore the will of the people if the timing is wrong and will hurt the UK.

The door on referendum may be shut for the moment but it will not be shut permanently.

Remember this is not the time.

We live in a parliamentary democracy. How can the UK call itself democratic if it ignores it's parliaments?

The entire UK has about 63.1 million population and there is only one British Govt not two.

Like I said all the "logic" about democracy by joining EU bureaucratic silly system is simply lame.

Remember UK is joined at the hip ... all siblings ...

Fairly extreme yes, I'd have to imagine more or less unanimous support and a long campaign of mass protests.

Its not really a viewpoint of mine to be clear.

piemonster - Member

Fairly extreme yes, I'd have to imagine more or less unanimous support and a long campaign of mass protests.

Its not really a viewpoint of mine to be clear.

What message are you (Scots) going to have on your placard if there is a mass protest?

Imagine this message on your placard during the protest "We want EU bureaucratic system" or "We want EU" etc.

You will not only look silly but the entire EU continent will laugh at the sibling rivalry making a fool of him/herself.

Imagine this message on your placard during the protest "We want EU bureaucratic system" or "We want EU" etc.

how about "We wont be part of your mindless Brexshit cult"

What message are you (Scots) going to have on your placard if there is a mass protest?

Don't ask me, I'm an effete arsehole*

* insert** appropriate smiley emoticon

**fnarr

kimbers - Member

Imagine this message on your placard during the protest "We want EU bureaucratic system" or "We want EU" etc.

how about "We wont be part of your mindless Brexshit cult"

Like I said you (Scotland) have a better chance of gaining independence with your head held high by blaming Edward Longshanks than the silly excuses of joining silly EU bureaucratic system or Brexit. The latter two excuses only make you look like a fool.

Don't misinterpret a catalyst to be the cause

piemonster - Member
Don't misinterpret a catalyst to be the cause

chewkw - Member
The door on referendum may be shut for the moment but it will not be shut permanently.

Remember this is not the time.

chewkw - Member
Again I ask you this question what if West Minister refuses Scotland another referendum what can you do about it?...

Plenty. I can guarantee something will be done about it.

piemonster - Member
Fairly extreme yes, I'd have to imagine more or less unanimous support and a long campaign of mass protests.

Its not really a viewpoint of mine to be clear.

"Plenty. I can guarantee something will be done about it."

What if a Referendum were granted, but requiring a substantial super majority to avoid the nightmare of a major change occuring because of a statistically insignificant majority?

epicyclo - Member
Plenty. I can guarantee something will be done about it.

outofbreath - Member
What if a Referendum were granted, but requiring a substantial super majority to avoid the nightmare of a major change occuring because of a statistically insignificant majority?

They pulled that stunt the first time. 52% voted for devolution in 1979 and we didn't get it at that time, so we willna be fooled again.

outofbreath - Member
"Plenty. I can guarantee something will be done about it."

What if a Referendum were granted, but requiring a substantial super majority to avoid the nightmare of a major change occuring because of a statistically insignificant majority?

Personally i agree with the super majority, but the easy argument to that is why should scotland be held to a different standard than that of common uk democratic practice?

Sorry to say, but the concept of a super majority seems lost in this day and age. it's majority rule, come what may...

epicyclo - Member
They pulled that stunt the first time.

it's not actually a stunt but something that should be standard for this type of qustion. horse has well and truly bolted though.

duplicate..

epicyclo - Member

chewkw - Member
Again I ask you this question what if West Minister refuses Scotland another referendum what can you do about it?...

Plenty. I can guarantee something will be done about it.

fair do's. i just don't really see the point in bringing it up, as you say it would need to be almost unanimous(see eritrea/slovenia), never going to happen.

I was going to post something more erudite to give you a glimpse of my intellectual prowess. But I needed a poo and decided I didn't have the time.

job done, I'd to google erudite! 😆

So anyhow, SNP options(in no particular order):

- Suck it up, accept defeat. - unlikely.

- Call an election and campaign on a referdum pre-brexit.(that's if they are serious about the timeline) - most dangerous

- Sit on it, play up that they are actually serious about calling a referendum in the stated timeline. Then gratiously accept a post brexit ref. Which will need to be in this parliament defo before 2021 scottish election, and probably before the 2020 election so they can hold this government to it, as future government will be able to ignore it. - most likely, imo.

Am I missing any options?

seosamh77 - Member
Am I missing any options?

Yes, blame Edward Longshanks the hammer of the Scots.

The rest of the excuses are just lame ...

I'm hedging my bets on "sit on it"

seosamh77

Idle musings

Make a legal case against the withholding of permission and fight thru the courts ( dunno how watertight the law is)

Hold a referendum without westminster permission and hope no one organises a significant boycott then UDI given a large enough mandate

Hold an election to holyrood on a the single issue, get a pro independence majority and declare UDI

Campaign of civil disobedience

General strike

None particularly likely

We live in a parliamentary democracy. How can the UK call itself democratic if it ignores it's parliaments?

The Scottish parliament does not have responsibility for The union between Scotland and England, it's that simple

theyre little more than a glorified parish council

ninfan - MWe live in a parliamentary democracy. How can the UK call itself democratic if it ignores it's parliaments?
The Scottish parliament does not have responsibility for The union between Scotland and England, it's that simpleember

theyre little more than a glorified parish council

tjagain - Member
Make a legal case against the withholding of permission and fight thru the courts ( dunno how watertight the law is)

Hold a referendum without westminster permission and hope no one organises a significant boycott then UDI given a large enough mandate

Hold an election to holyrood on a the single issue, get a pro independence majority and declare UDI

Campaign of civil disobedience

General strike

chewkw - Member
seosamh77 - Member
Am I missing any options?
Yes, blame Edward Longshanks the hammer of the Scots.

The rest of the excuses are just lame ...

Chewkw once again demonstrates his willful ignorance...

seosamh77 - Member
Chewkw once again demonstrates his willful ignorance...

What else do you have to convince me apart from the lame excuses of joining EU bureaucratic silly system or blaming Brexit.

The very basic is blood feud no matter how you packed your reasons. 🙄

I don't have to convince you, just other people living in scotland.

The most valuable lesson all of us should take from the last referendum.

Ireland never asked for independence. They declared it the English screwed up and ended up starting a war that lasted decades.

Scotland doesn't need Westminsters approval, it might make life better though.

Handle independence questions badly and you tend to have a civil war.

aye, defo don't want to take the irish route! Don't think there are really that many parallels though, so academic at best to suggest that course of action.

mrmo - Member
Handle independence questions badly and you tend to have a civil war.

As for Ireland ... so long as they are happy so be it.

😛

I think you'll find the convention for that is clearly changing, before your very eyes. suck it up.

It's not a convention, it's an act of Parliament, and if you remember the Brexit hearing in court, I think we're all pretty clear about who therefore has supremacy

Why doesn't may just say "no, never," rather than, "no, not just now."?

She knows she can't.

seosamh77 - Member
Why doesn't may, just say "no, never," rather than, "no, not just now."?
She knows she can't.

Her reason is simple that we are in the process of Brexit hence it is the wrong time to ask for another referendum.

Put it this way if Scotland is determined to gain independence in future nobody is going to stop them if the Scots want it after all the world is changing.

It is just not the time yet because the British PM knows Scotland can hurt the Union at the wrong time, and as a British PM it is her duty to protect the Union.

It is her duty as PM simple as that.

duplicate..

🙂

We could post this in quite a few threads, this one and the EU one for sure !

Earlier you spoke of "morally" - Mrs May takes the 55% No vote and "once in a lifetime Referendum" as her moral aurhority.

Why doesn't may just say "no, never," rather than, "no, not just now."?

She knows she can't.

May said what she meant, not now as now makes no sense.

Why doesn't may just say "no, never," rather than, "no, not just now."?

Whoever suggested never?

I thought we were all agreed, that there would no doubt be another referendum on independence

In about a generation, perhaps even in a lifetime.

just you keep parroting on...

Pot kettle ? 😉

jambalaya - Member
May said what she meant, not now as now makes no sense.

tbh i agree it doesn't really make sense right now, not for the same reasons as you mind.. but she'll regret(or perhaps she won't) leaving the question open ended.

As i've said many times, you do have to admire the brits for one thing and that's their commitment to democracy, atleast at home.

chewkw - Member
Yes, blame Edward Longshanks the hammer of the Scots.

You do realise he lost, don't you?

If you can't hold it, you haven't won it.

mrmo - Member
Ireland never asked for independence. They declared it the English screwed up and ended up starting a war that lasted decades.

It just needs a Hesselrig moment, and Scotland will also be on the path taken by so many countries that had their calls for independence ignored by Westminster.

Too many people assume it's the SNP leading the movement. It's the movement pushing the SNP.

The SNP's great achievement has been to damp down the more radical elements and pursue a peaceful method. If it is seen to lose control of the process, then it's lost its influence.

That's why so many of us are watching this with horror. Will Westminster repeat the same mistake yet again? Hopefully they won't, the cost is high, and the damage forever.

Jamba - may picks and choses what she thinks of as democracy.

circumstnces have changed after the EU referendum
62% vote to stay in the EU

50+ % of the scots voters backed pro independence parties,
Majority in Holyrood 56 out of 59 mps from scotland pro independence

Now what % of the vote put the tories in power?

epicyclo - Member
chewkw - Member
Yes, blame Edward Longshanks the hammer of the Scots.
You do realise he lost, don't you?

If you can't hold it, you haven't won it.

mrmo - Member
Ireland never asked for independence. They declared it the English screwed up and ended up starting a war that lasted decades.
It just needs a Hesselrig moment, and Scotland will also be on the path taken by so many countries that had their calls for independence ignored by Westminster.

Too many people assume it's the SNP leading the movement. It's the movement pushing the SNP.

The SNP's great achievement has been to damp down the more radical elements and pursue a peaceful method. If it is seen to lose control of the process, then it's lost its influenc.e.

That's why so many of us are watching this with horror. Will Westminster repeat the same mistake yet again? Hopefully they won't, the cost is high, and the damage forever.

chewkw all in a tizz about the Scott's.
On the one hand, independence would mean further weakening of the UK - Putin happy!
On the other, Scott's gaining indepenace to join EU means further support for EU - Putin sad 🙁

All too predictable chewy. What will your masters decide for you?

seosamh77 - Member
You have way too much confidence in scotland actually being full of nationalists willing to die for the cause. It isn't. Thankfully.

Looking at history, many independence struggles start with a spark. It just takes one incident by one person to kick things off. Then the govt reacts and pisses off a few more which leads to more incidents, etc etc, then the die is cast.

50+ % of the scots voters backed pro independence parties,

Go on? 2015 general election SNP got 49.97% of he vote, how do you make it over 50% pro independence?

Scottish green manifesto for 2015 election wasn't pro Indy

Epic, i do look at history, look at Ireland, the struggle goes back hundreds of years, and they had much more of a greviance than the scots.

Explain the history of physical force separatism in Scotland?

That kind of thing doesn't just come out of no where. It takes a long long time and plenty failed attempts.

The conditions just don't exist. And that's before you even get into logistics of funding and arming.

It's fantasy. Honestly not worth your time.

Plus have you ever looked at and indy crowd? Hardly the best pool for guerilla fighters! 😆

Might want to check the holyrood manifesto rather than the Westminster one, ninfan.

https://greens.scot/scotland-can

In a second referendum the Scottish Greens will campaign for independence.

epicyclo - Member

chewkw - Member
Yes, blame Edward Longshanks the hammer of the Scots.

You do realise he lost, don't you?

If you can't hold it, you haven't won it.

My reasoning is that your blood feud first started there coz the Scots were hammered by Longshanks then all the subsequent politics, struggle etc until James I (first) yet they still wanted fireworks but those were the good old days. (yes, yes Europe was involved via religion proxy etc)

Nowadays, their decedents just want a revenge that's all. A bit like the attitude of never give up etc whatever that is several hundred years later ... still fighting.

It just needs a Hesselrig moment, and Scotland will also be on the path taken by so many countries that had their calls for independence ignored by Westminster.

seosamh77 - Member
Explain to me the history of physical force separatism in Scotland?

That kind of thing doesn't just come out of no where. It takes a long long time and plenty failed attempts.

The conditions just don't exist. And that's before you even get into logistics of funding and arming.

You're thinking in terms of someone starting a full scale insurrection right from the start. I don't think that's possible either.

I'm thinking more of one person starting an avalanche, eg Gavrilo Princip.

chewkw - Member
...Nowadays, their decedents just want a revenge that's all. A bit like the attitude of never give up etc whatever that is several hundred years later ... still fighting...

No, we just want a govt that we voted for.

It would take 300 years, if, and that's a massive 4000 point if, you could even get 20 people interested to start.

In fact i dare ye, go for it.

And you're still thinking in terms of scotland be occupied. It's not.

fourbanger - Member
chewkw all in a tizz about the Scott's.

On the one hand, independence would mean further weakening of the UK - Putin happy!

On the other, Scott's gaining indepenace to join EU means further support for EU - Putin sad

All too predictable chewy. What will your masters decide for you?

seosamh77 - Member
...In fact i dare ye, go for it...

Who? Me? No way! I'm just looking at possible scenarios.

I'll let you know if I start sharpening my claymore. 🙂

😆

Possible and hypothetical are 2 very different words!

epicyclo - Member

seosamh77 - Member
...In fact i dare ye, go for it...

Who? Me? No way! I'm just looking at possible scenarios.
I'll let you know if I start sharpening my claymore.

What no sardonic sneering reply from STW's Ron Liddle? C'mon Ninfan,explain exactly when the Scottish Green party decided to support the Union.

chewkw - Member
It will be so foolish to go on that path ...

Indeed. But the lesson of history is that when independence is withheld, eventually someone will make the first move.

Ninfan - the scottish greens are a separate party with separate manifestos

Not like you to make a basic error like that but its the sort of error that far too many English unionist commentators on scottish politics make due to their lack of knowledge and understanding

dragon

FAKE NEWS alert!!

You are Donald Trump & I claim my 5 gallons of underage hooker piss

Plus have you ever looked at and indy crowd? Hardly the best pool for guerilla fighters!

That's what they want you to think, maskirovka at its most committed.

Indeed. But the lesson of history is that when independence is withheld, eventually someone will make the first move.

True, but as yet it's not really withheld. Just two blah blah once blah generation blah blah......

(Leaving aside the claymore sharpening)*

Once we have a clear, committed, overwhelming majority in support. Then things change, but I'm not yet seeing the evidence for that......yet.

Well see how those cards fall over the coming few years. I for one will withhold judgement on who is out manoeuvring who, both May and Nicola are playing to different audiences. And whatever you think of the short term impact amongst peers and media you frequent, it's how it impacts support at the critical moment that counts.

*please tell me you have an x men style outfit?

Well see how those cards fall over the coming few years. I for one will withhold judgement on who is out manoeuvring who, both May and Nicola are playing to different audiences. And whatever you think of the short term impact amongst peers and media you frequent, it's how it impacts support at the critical moment that counts.

I respect Sturgeon as a politician and a person but am no SNP supporter. I used to think May an intelligent politician but her mishandling of things over the last while has changed that very much and of course I detest the tories in general

But even allowing for that bias Sturgeon has played a blinder here with the cards she has. She has made the argument about the referendum become about "when" not "if" and appears reasonable and willing to compromise whereas May with her repeating of soundbites rather than answering questions has made herself look very weak indeed, as being blown about by events rather than controlling them and as being completely hypocritical with her continual calling out of democratic will but cherrypicking what she considers relevant.

Despite the overwhelmingly unionist press I am sure Sturgeon will come out of this with her reputation enhanced and May with hers diminished and that the movement in public opinion in Scotland is all one way - Sturgeons way. Remember how it appears to English voters is irrelevant.

One really sad part of all this is watching Davidson having to toe the london line. She has had to contradict herself because of this and say things she clearly does not believe and the slow journey to a scottish conservative party that resonates in Scotland has been halted and put into reverse which I see as a personal tragedy for Davidson.

One really sad part of all this is watching Davidson having to toe the london line. She has had to contradict herself because of this and say things she clearly does not believe and the slow journey to a scottish conservative party that resonates in Scotland has been halted and put into reverse which I see as a personal tragedy for Davidson.

Agreed. Party and policies aside, I think she is excellent. I hope she isn't lost to Westminster, Scottish politics would be worse off without her.

tjagain

One really sad part of all this is watching Davidson having to toe the london line. She has had to contradict herself because of this and say things she clearly does not believe and the slow journey to a scottish conservative party that resonates in Scotland has been halted and put into reverse which I see as a personal tragedy for Davidson.

How does the old adage go - lie with dogs, get fleas?

Ruth's been used as nothing more than the mouthpiece for a long time - just look at her face in this video, from the moment she starts talking you can almost feel the embarrassment - her face at 1:06 speaks volumes...

Unfortunately Frank I think this will be her political demise.

She has gone from appearing reasonable and truthful to appearing just another politician without conviction and has ruined her reputation

the hard thing to see is who will be the beneficiaries? Labour and the lib dems remain toxic in Scotland, Greens will hardly attract too many core tory votes. Neither will the SNP - I suspect more folk will simply disengage from politics especially on the unionist side.

Remember how it appears to English voters is irrelevant.

Honestly, this reminds me of indyref1. For my sins I'm loosely connected via social media with a couple of Scot Con councillors and it's interesting just how different segments of the Scottish electorate perceive this. And I'm not talking about what those councillors are saying, but those that support them.

And that's a point I tried to make last time. What you see and perceive may well not be an accurate assessment of the overall picture.

Holyrood was set up to be a consensual chamber and altho Labour wouldn't join in this leading to their demise because of the "Bain principle" the tories did act in a consensual and collaberative manner leading to Goldie having influence in previous Holyrood decisions ( while labour had none despite having more seats) but it now appears Davidson ( I believe under orders from London) has been pushed down the same road of automatically opposing anything from the SNP instead of arguing on the merits of each proposal and I think will suffer the same fate as labour - who are now down to 14% in the polls - losing votes and influence.

Agreed piemonster. Social media can be a terrible echo chamber.

Trouble for the tories in Scotland Davidson has moved away from appearing sensible and moderate and speaking to the centre / undecided voters to appealing to their core only.

Something London politicians have failed to grasp is that because of the complex PR systems involved in scottish elections and because of the huge political debate and engagement of the last independence referendum the scots electorate is more sophisticated and able to make nuanced decision more than in England.

Ninfan - the scottish greens are a separate party with separate manifestos

Not like you to make a basic error like that but its the sort of error that far too many English unionist commentators on scottish politics make due to their lack of knowledge and understanding

I linked to the Scottish Green manifesto for the 2015 general election, which did not support or commit to independence

As already pointed out, this is the only election that has any bearing on independence, since as you well know, it is a reserved issue.

Scottish National Party 54
Independent 2
Scottish Labour Party 1
Scottish Conservative Party 1
Scottish Liberal Democrats 1

Seems conclusive.

You also seem to have trouble understanding how these things come about. Yes it's reserved to Westminster, kinda, but the 3 referendums Scotland has had in relation to home rule/independence were not offered, they were agitated for. in 79, 97 & 14.

Westminster will never offer up constitutional change of it's own accord.

so yes it's reserved to westminster, but it always needs scottish agitation for it to become a reality.

This is simple politics.

Fair enough ninfan - I made the mistake of not reading your link 😳

However everyone interested in Scottish politics knows the scottish greens position on independence. To me that manifesto simply show their realism in that a vote for a scottish independence referendum cannot come from Westminster only Holyrood therefore putting independence in it would appear daft.

Just ducking back in now and again, it's incredible how much more civilized and decent the conversation is when 'certain individuals' haven't joined in for a while*....

*Apart from Chewkw, who thankfully, most people have the sense to ignore.