Scotland Indyref 2

One or the other Aracer we either get a fair share of ALL the assets or we walk away with nothing and no debt

Mefty - its legally not an independent scotlands debt. This was all gone into last time.

How much is the bank of england worth? Not just the reserves but all the money in circulat5ion plus whatever the "brand" is worth? So exactly the same amount of money per head is enough reserves for the UK but its not enough for an indepoendent scotland?

Money in circulation is a liability not an asset.

Mefty - its legally not an independent scotlands debt. This was all gone into last time.

Doesn't matter - if the markets believe you will not take your fair share of debt they will have zero trust. No trust = no money.

So exactly the same amount of money per head is enough reserves for the UK but its not enough for an indepoendent scotland?

Because the BofE has an established record which creates trust, that enables it to borrow significant amounts. Lending is about trust.

Mefty - it was all gone into last time and its clear scotland legally does not have to take any of the debt - and it not being scotlands debt would not affect its credit rating.

This amused me
“Now is not the time for a second independence referendum,” said Theresa May,.............“Then when is the right time?” enquired Peston reasonably.

“Now is not the time.”

Peston tried again. “Can we be clear about when you do think is the right time?”

“Now is not the time.” A virus had reinfected the Maybot and she was stuck on repeat.

“Yes, I get that, but...

“Now is not the time,” said the prime minister, unaware she was turning her bad week into a worse one.

“So what you’re saying is...”

“Now is not the time.”

Mefty - it was all gone into last time and its clear scotland legally does not have to take any of the debt - and it not being scotlands debt would not affect its credit rating.

You may have persuaded yourself of that - but the fact you don't know that Notes in Circulation are a liability rather illustrates your inability to understand basic financial issues.

Rather than us argue about how any divvy up of the debts etc is done, shall we look at the precedent to a part of the UK leaving.

What happened when Ireland left?

It's likely to be used as a guide.

kimbers - Member
I think May gave Sturgeon the response she wanted today.
She's now able to cry 'westminster is ignoring the will of Scotland'
And so the referendum campaign begins....

You under estimate Sturgeon's sense of timing. Don't forget the council elections are coming up in just a few weeks.

The best broom to sweep out Labour from its last stronghold (local councils) is a wee bit of outrage.

Also it may very well have put a spanner in Brexit negotiations.

The UK is going to find it very hard to trade away Scotland's fishing and faming rights if the EU sees that they are in dispute.

That plus, of course, the long game of ScotRef.

I have to agree with Captain Freeeeedooooom 😆 above that it will help Sturgeon and the SNP jetwash the last dregs of Labour down the drain. Interesting; I wonder if May has underestimated Sturgeon a wee bit? There is maybe a wee bit of project "too stupid" has gone on when looking at how to try and play NS.
The reality is surely dawning,even for the most vocal haters of the SNP on here, that the Union is on the way out? It is unlikely to be this time round; but it is going. I am an Indy supporting non-SNP voter who has little confidence in the SNP's chances of winning the ref announced by NS.I believe with absolute certainty the Union is doomed and with approx 40 years left expect to watch it happen.

Rather than us argue about how any divvy up of the debts etc is done, shall we look at the precedent to a part of the UK leaving.

What happened when Ireland left?

It's likely to be used as a guide.

I'd prefer for a transition with less shooting involved if I'm honest

Captain Freeeeedooooom

😀

What happened when Ireland left?
It's likely to be used as a guide.

I dont think they will be trying that again and I dont think the "sectarian" hatred in scotland is strong enough to deliver that either.

Essentially the Union will have to respect the vote they have no other credible option other than civil war and that is just not going to happen

I don't think May, Westminster politicians and a lot of folk from south of the border actually understand what is happening in Scotland and how their pronouncements sound from up here.

We are all laughing at the falseness of May in that she makes statements about leaving the EU and scottish independence that are opposing in their logic

Such as ( to paraphrase) Sturgeon has no democratic mandate for an independence referendum but May has the mandate for the hardest of hard exits from the EU

Or that its not the right time for a referendum because it would be a leap in the dark - however leaving the EU is something we have all signed up for and must shut up about

In attempting to placate the far right she has simply forgotten or is unable to recognise that these pronouncements do not go down well up here.

Every statement she makes on Scotland pushes more and more people into the yes camp and she seems incapable of understanding this

she has taken two huge gambles over Eu and Scotland and both are very likely to backfire badly

aye may argument that the scottish cannot vote when they dont know what they will be voting for after demanding we respect a referendum where folk voted for something that we still dont know what it was they voted for [ and we know they voted for all different flavours of it and for all sorts of different reasons] is is ludicrous

How she expects the country to unite behind a isolationist racist leap in the dark is lost on me
Its an act of stupidity as the ensuing decade will show.

Tj - spot on.

May is doing a grand job for the SNP...I am not too upset about that!

Amazing how all these central banks exist if it's impossible to set one up..

Of course, we've been saying Scotland needs to set one up. It's only the SNP who think it's not necessary.

May has played a blinder, she is aware that;

Scotland just had a once in a lifetime Referendum and voted No
Scots don't want another vote (60/40 against)
SNP are well aware they would not win another vote now - so May is just nudging them a bit further out into the future
Brexit deal "wait and see" is a powerful argument and paints SNP into a corner it is almost impossible to escape from
There is no timing which would allow SNP to keep an iS inside the EU / EEA before UK is out. So that argument from SNP is worthless.

Of course the pro Indy Scots are miffed as the do-over looks increasingly like 2023 if at all. That is what is is. They where always going to be miffed.

Sooner or later the SNP will have to face their own record in power, currently they have managed to turn the debate back 100% to Independence which is always a convenient smoke screen.

TJ et al it really doesn't matter if you think May's statement pushes people into Yes, there is an equally strong argument backed up by on the ground reality that the Scots don't want another Referendum. May is responding to the 60%. Whether these people you believe are pushed into the Yes camp are still there by 2023 we will have to wait and see

kennyp

As you admit yourself, the electorate is not in favour of another referendum. Admittedly it is very close, but in a situation like this the onus is on the side demanding change to prove that an appetite for change exists. Otherwise we continue with the status quo. Show me proof that this appetite exists and I will join in calls for a second referendum.

Northwind

kennyp - Member
As you admit yourself, the electorate is not in favour of another referendum.
Was the electorate in favour of the last referendum? It came about because 36% of 66% of people voted for a party that promised it, but what proportion actually wanted it?

Sorry - 9 week old baby at home who remands I only get to play on t'internet at work 😀

But yeah, i'd say at this point it's closer than prior to the previous referendum, as Northwind says. I think a lot of folk (everywhere, not just here) display a frightening amount of political ignorance & are happy to rumble on with the status quo providing they can sit down at night with a nice cup of tea and watch Eastenders without some rampaging foreign hordes bashing down the door to steal the children. Maybe political ignorance is a bit strong - maybe call it political malaise, but as seen in the last referendum election, when people are faced with the reality of an actual vote - as opposed to being asked to make a decision on whether or not they would like to possibly have a vote, the end result can be quite different.

I think this bloke gets it
[img] [/img]

Scots don't want another vote (60/40 against

Ahhh so now you do believe the pollsters , when it suits your agenda 😉

May has played a blinder from the perspective of the little Englander, not so great when viewed from Scotland, they meeting the ones that get to vote.

If the Scottish 1st Minister entire career is based on independence then she knows very well her career is practically over.

PM May is right in not allowing for the referendum so the next move is 1st Minister which is predictable and she will probably come up with so many reasons that a referendum should be held etc.

You see 1st Minister will try everything to get the referendum but what she does not realise is that it is not West Minister (I thought I heard someone pronounced it as "West Minister") that will deal a blow to her career but the real people she thinks will back her.

Hence, her career is dead from the start go when she invoked the spirit of Scottish hero Mel Gibson ... Freeddoommmm! 😆

Jamba. 4 weeks ago indy ref looked 30 years away. Now it looks at most 4 years away. How you spin that as a win for may is mind boggling acrobatics. I know the British press is trying their best to, as evidenced by your regurgitation of their narrative. But come on. Who ye kidding here? 😆

@kimbers fair play but nothing much else to go on, hence SNP continually claiming to speak for the "Scottish people"

4 weeks ago indy ref looked 30 years away.

Really SNP put another into their election manifesto. Plus the dream will never die (can't bear to see Salmond's face so won't post the book cover again)

60% of scots don't want another referendum NOW not they don't want one. when 50% of the country will vote yes then its an obvious nonsense to state they don't want one!

SNP continually claiming to speak for the "Scottish people"

Mays mandate to claim to speak for the people is far less credible [ and in terms of scotland ludicrous] than the SNP's who have voting % that rUK parties can only dream of.

they have more of a mandate than the tories did for the EU - I assume you can count their MP'S and their % of the vote and compare and contrast, reflect and reach a fact based conclusion

What happened when Ireland left?

They had a vicious civil war.

jambalaya

can't bear to see Salmond's face

Aww, you've upset him now

[img] [/img]

[i]TJ et al it really doesn't matter if you think May's statement pushes people into Yes, there is an equally strong argument backed up by on the ground reality that the Scots don't want another Referendum. May is responding to the 60%. Whether these people you believe are pushed into the Yes camp are still there by 2023 we will have to wait and see [/I]

Jamba, as I've reminded you, you don't live in Scotland but TJ, myself and many others do. Please stop telling us what we think based upon what you're reading in the English press.

Are you aware that newspapers often print totally different accounts of the same events in their English and Scottish editions?

like many on the RW he only reads the news services that deliver the news he wants to hear its a grand exercise in cherry picking to confirm his bias- see also climate change deniers

And nationalists.

True but Jamby is also a nationalist as well albeit for the UK [ up yours delores he says from Paris] rather than Scotland

True

"And nationalists."

+1

"So.... it's not really an argument to be making then, is it?"

I don't think sound logic is always part of the Nationalist toolkit.

So.... it's not really an argument to be making then, is it? If both sides are biased, there's no sense in one side calling out the other's bias.

Yes there are extremists on both sides who cherry pick their opinions - and dont actually apply a principle other than what best supports me now- just as there are measured and balanced views from both sides on this debate

I also dont think there is a Breitbart equivalent or Fox news /alt news site for the left and they[ we if you like] tend to not do this.

Genuinely what is your point?

These debates end up pretty tribal pretty quickly.

IMHO the economic argument - though its much less clear cut with brexit- is to stay in the union they control over your own destiny is to leave
My "nationalism" extends to the point that I would vote for almost anythign that prevents the tories ruling over me and its hypocritical of RW folk who dislike the influence of the EU - which is far less than rUK over scotland- to lecture the scottish on nationalism, Its basically hypocritical they are doing what you just did.

I also think its interesting how folks support one union and not the other - a few exceptions like THM who supports both.

There is no conclusive poll that has established whether there is a desire for a referendum.

Now that we know the actual dates the following specific options should be given:

When do you think the next referendum should be called?
a) As soon as possible
b) After negotiations are concluded (October 2018) but before the UK leaves the EU (March 2019)
c) Sometime after the UK leaves the EU
d) Never

Until this question gets answered we have no idea what people want. Anyone who says they do is just spinning it.

I don't think May, Westminster politicians and a lot of folk from south of the border actually understand what is happening in Scotland and how their pronouncements sound from up here.

Tin foil hat on\
Were assuming the current Government hasn't decided to draw the union to a close but needs a politically acceptable (to the electorate) way of getting there.
Tin foil hat off/

Id like to think Im quite neutral on this

I have a scottish mum and an english dad and grew up in england, with summer hols spent by many a (rainy/ midge infested) loch

I wouldnt want Scotland to leave the UK, on a selfish note, I cant be arsed with any extra hassles when I go up there for mtbing or holidays

It would also be a sad day for England and Scotland as well as being economically damaging to both.

Having spoken quite a bit with my scottish cousins 2 of the 4 were Yes, since brexit all 4 are now Yes (yeah small sample size), Im certain that they will leave though, its just a matter of when.

Im resigned to to it

It does serve as a warning to other countries considering quitting the EU that it would be divisive and damaging.

I'm almost tempted to vote Yes this time to we can stop all the tedious arguing and move on!

I wonder if May will have the distinction of being the last ever female UK PM?

outofbreath - Member

"So.... it's not really an argument to be making then, is it?"

I don't think sound logic is always part of the Nationalist toolkit.

As opposed to the erudite and measured posts of team weethickpoor on here? If you can find me a newspaper report on Nats calling for Teresa May to be beheaded as well please.

"not really sure i get your point tbh"

He spelled it out clearly and it's a very simple point.

"As opposed to the erudite and measured posts of team weethickpoor"

?

Genuinely what is your point?

"Like many, at whichever point on the political spectrum they lie, he only reads the news services that deliver the news he wants to hear."

I just feel that after the previous what seems like an eternity arguing about Scottish independence or EU membership, you'd think that all sides would have taken a step back and thought, "You know what? Being all combative and dismissive and calling people I don't agree with 'racists' or 'xenophobes' or 'fearties' or 'delusional' or 'apparatchiks' or 'shills' or whichever epithet best suits the degree of my distaste... it doesn't work. It just drives a bigger wedge."

But carry on. There clearly wasn't enough damage done the last two times.

I'm almost tempted to vote Yes this time to we can stop all the tedious arguing and move on!

Whatever the result the next independence referendum will be the last for a long time.

Whatever the result the next independence referendum will be the last for a long time.

Yeah, I think I heard that before.

Only that calling out one side on their bias and then trying to disparage their views with a bit of the old "guilt by association", when you freely admit the other side are just as biased does seem a bit, well... biased.

Again is there a left wing alternative to breitbart fox news etc - I genuinely think this is a more recent right wing phenomenon rather than a universal thing - you need to find these sites and flag them up to convince me its not more of a RW issue - I dont mean gentle RW i mean the tea party/UKIP end of the spectrum that the poster mentioned epitomises. I am not sure we have got a full on cyber nat on here but if we did I would be equally scornful of them

As for seeking accord I get your point but the two views are just opposites and I am not sure how you think that will work
On the EU little englanders and gentle racists voted for a bunch of lying conmen to achieve something that was impossible [ lies] and we are no longer even trying to achieve - save the NHS be in the EU but not etc- and you want me to seek accord with them.
I dont see how consensus is achievable and yes it divides the nations

yes there are LW alternatives - the canary would be a good place to start

Never heard of it and glance at the headlines would suggest its as one sided as Breitbart is
Cheers

This makes interesting reading - from someone who worked on the "better together" campaign

Take it from someone who worked on the first Scottish referendum: what Theresa May is doing is a big mistake

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/scottish-referendum-theresa-may-no-sturgeon-big-mistake-a7634116.html

I found this blog to offer an interesting view

http://www.twoberries.scot/?p=4262

Offering the position that now TM has poo-poo'd the proposed timeframe that the snp could resign on mass and force an election with independence as a manifesto pledge.

I dontt think that is what I did

its a grand exercise in cherry picking to confirm his bias

see also climate change deniers

True

One thing that is very obvious on this thread is the number of anti independence posters who do not live in Scotland and have no idea of what is happening politically here. there are some anti independence scots residents - you can usually tell them by the fact they understand the issues but disagree with the solutions but the number of English residents who keep on telling us what we think and need is really funny when they have no understanding of the isues

Take it from someone who worked on the first Scottish referendum: what Theresa May is doing is a big mistake

...but when you look at the other two options stated in the article it was probably the least worst option she had.

Nope - her best option was the snap referendum

When is the time?:

Your post is too disjointed for me to grasp the point you are trying to make- no offence but it does not make sense to me and I have no idea what you are trying to say

Nope - her best option was the snap referendum

Non starter. a) The Govt might lose that. b) I doubt there's a load of civil service time going spare because of Brexit.

When is the time?:

Never. There should never be another referendum on this.

Offering the position that now TM has poo-poo'd the proposed timeframe that the snp could resign on mass and force an election with independence as a manifesto pledge.

Interesting, running exclusively on the pledge of making a Unilateral Declaration of Independence.

Hope it doesn't come to that.

[quote=tjagain ]Nope - her best option was the snap referendum
When is the time?:

agreed but the problem, as the link noted, is that she has accepted that it has to happen and the only debate is over the "time" not the actuality.
They will beat her to death with this and she will end up with a Holyrood vote for a ref and her saying not now you are not ready which just plays directly into their narrative about tories/westminster.

Imagine we leave the EU the economy is a mess - which we all know is inevitable- and business leave then this just strengthens the SNP cause

Now is when the SNP and the vote is at its weakest so to preserve the union it was now.

I think May is just muddling through all this and about to start getting kicking from all sides for her tactics on this and Brexit

So do I - there are various nuclear options and this is one of them but anything like this makes for a hard acrimonious leave and would not be in the interests of either country.

Not sure which category you pigeonhole me in, TJ, but my understanding of the issues as a Yorkshireman living in Scotland is that the SNP have not been all that good at actually running the country, either nationally or locally - see Police Scotland, Outcome-based Education, zero-fees for Scottish students actually resulting in fewer Scots from lower-income backgrounds attending uni, the Forth Bridge closures, the NPD debacle, Edinburgh's Stat Notice issues, bemoaning child poverty/foodbanks/whatever but not using the £150 million+ annual budget underspend to do anything about it - instead focussing on, and freely admitting it, independence. Add this to the frankly embarrassing "ach, it'll all work out somehow", "we've taken legal advice", "we'll automatically remain in the EU", "it's our pound", "oil bonanza" stance on independence last time round, and I wouldn't trust them to organise a bring-and-buy sale without it being a failure and that failure somehow being Westminster's fault.

Unfortunately I don't really have any other Scottish government to compare them to but to paraphrase something about art, I think it was: "I'm no politician, but I know bad politics"

Your post is too disjointed for me to grasp the point you are trying to make- no offence but it does not make sense to me and I have no idea what you are trying to say

[b]bias[/b]
'b???s'
[i]noun[/i]
1.
inclination or prejudice for or against one person or group, especially in a way considered to be unfair.

I also gave you an example of how an unbiased sentence would have read.

Flying ox - I am afraid you are one of the ill informed.

The SNP ( and remember I am not an snp supporter of voter) have actually been a fairly competent and cautious government and have actually done better than any UK government since Blairs first term

Lets see. Removed the internal market from the NHS freeing 10% of the NHS budget and allowing actuall proper planning. Delivered the new forth crossing on time and in budget. delivered two new railway lines on time and in budget. NOt bad on energy policy but hamstring by westminster.

I am no SNP fan but they have been competent in government and no major mistakes

No other political party in the UK has a vote of 45%+ and Sturgeon has satisfaction ratings far above any other UK politician

the problem is in England you do not get a true picture of what is happening

So your measure of competence is bridge-building and trains? And not education, policing, interpretation of EU law, financial nouse or economics?

Removed the internal market from the NHS freeing 10% of the NHS budget and allowing actuall proper planning

the problem is in England you do not get a true picture of what is happening

Sturgeon has satisfaction ratings far above any other UK politician

Sorry flying ox - I thought you lived down south. I got that wrong then you must fit into the category of seeing the data but coming to differnt conclusions. My apologies

By any measure they have been basically competent IMO

Working in the NHS I can tell you its better in Scotland than in England

The SNP didn't build the Forth Bridge - Transport Scotland did ! The Civil Service rolls on regardless, and it was planned well before SNP came into power.

hels - Member
The SNP didn't build the Forth Bridge - Transport Scotland did ! The Civil Service rolls on regardless, and it was planned well before SNP came into power.

Working in the NHS I can tell you its better in Scotland than in England

By any measure they have been basically competent IMO

"Overall, Scotland’s ranking has dropped from 11th to 23rd for reading since 2006, from 11th to 24th for maths and from 10th to 19 for science. A record number of nations are now doing better than Scotland, with the English education system boasting a significantly superior performance at science."

This is your measure of basic competence?
[img] [/img]

Hels - it was planned more than 10 years ago?

her saying not now you are not ready

Is it Scotland which isn't ready, or the Uk? Surely the Uk is not ready. All 'our' civil service time is going to be taken up sorting out Brexit. I don't see how the administrators could manage both negotiations/re-structuring processes at once.

By that token the SNP isn't responsible for much of the the stuff listed above either (Forth Bridge Closures?)

outofbreath - would much of it not be the same issues? Personally I don't see " we are busy with ****ing up us getting out of the EU" as an excuse

outofbreath - would much of it not be the same issues?

Not at all. The EU doesn't own 8pc of the Uks assets.

How the hell do you value an aircraft carrier? It's all going to need to be negotiated and frankly I don't see how that can go smoothly. The Uk keeps 92pc of the RAF? How does that work? 8pc of Aircrew/Pilots/Aircraft/Airfields? There's going to be an endless list of stuff that has massive paper value but is worthless to Scotland. Say we give you one Nuclear Sub, that's 25pc of the fleet, but you have to decommission it so really it's just a massive liability. So what, we buy it off you? At what cost? I'd say zero. No doubt Scotland will want 5 billion dollars for it with some justification. There's going to be tons of stuff like this. Separatist are in some kind of Dunning–Kruger fantasy that it's going to require little civil service input.

Leaving the EU is going to be a doddle in comparison to the nightmare of splitting up a country - and that's going to be insanely complex - I can see an impasse reached there and the UK remaining indefinitely on article 50 extensions when we get to the detail.

I think it would have been better had you expounded on your argument some more rather than try and patronise me by explaining what bias was - you did not seem to think i had failed to understand bias when i agreed that some nats were biased 🙄

I disagree its a fallacious argument and for it to be false you will need to convince me that RW [ or climate sceptics] read a broad spectrum of press reports from all sources to form their views. I doubt you can and therefore my argument is sound

like many on the RW he only reads the news services that deliver the news he wants to hear its a grand exercise in cherry picking to confirm his bias- see also climate change deniers

This argument is not fallacious

I am not really sure what your broader point is here tbh but please try and expand on it rather than explain the meaning of simple words we both know i understand

Combining the subjects of the new bridge and cycling, it was the SNP who cancelled pedestrian and cycle access. A disgraceful decision for major new transport infrastructure in the 21st century, and the SNP have not been particularly great on cycling in general.

I'll still be voting Yes in any second referendum, because despite what a lot of people keep saying, it's not about the SNP.

How the hell do you value an aircraft carrier?

On the assetts I would expect a lot of bargaining / swapping. You can have the subs, we want so many helicopters in exchange

Anyway I suspect and its a long way off that it will be a Hard divorce with scotland taking the asetts in Scotland an leaving rUK with everything else but not taking any or much of the debt.

I think westminster will try to play hardball like they did last time over the £ - a piece of utter nonsense when the bank of England belongs to the UK

outofbreath - Member

How the hell do you value an aircraft carrier?

We dont have any yet so that one is rather simple

The cash has been spent, both will be delivered.

So you think because they haven't been delivered as of today they should remain with the UK without any payment to Scotland?

Even though Scotland has contributed billions to paying for them?

....and you think that won't be contentious?

You think valuing an undelivered Aircraft Carrier is simple? Dunning Kruger is strong in you!

would much of it not be the same issues?

On the assetts I would expect a lot of bargaining / swapping. You can have the subs, we want so many helicopters in exchange

...and you think those negotiations would not require any Civil Service time because those Civil servants would have already been negotiating the same exchanges with the EU.

Hmmmm. Have you thought this through?

[quote=The Flying Ox ]By that token the SNP isn't responsible for much of the the stuff listed above either (Forth Bridge Closures?)
I think even the most cursory google search will show that the SNP ignored calls for repair work on the bridge until it was too late.

A Holyrood inquiry into the closure of the Forth Road Bridge has concluded that the fault which caused it could not have been foreseen.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35779333

Scottish Conservative transport spokesman Alex Johnstone said the report highlighted the "true price of the Scottish government's penny-pinching approach to its responsibilities".
He said: "While it is the case that the closure of the Forth Road Bridge could not have been foreseen, the Scottish government's slow response in repairing the bridge has had a catastrophic impact on people and businesses."

Gosh yes - all the land that had to be purchased, for a start. I was working at the National Museum while negotiations were ongoing to move out of the storage facility that was demolished for the on-ramps.