Scotland Indyref 2

He calculates that by the time another £10k per person in scotland comes back north (via Barnett, probably in about 6 years) it'll break about even.

And after that the UK will still be funding our deficit IF we're still part of the UK "single market" where we pool and share resources (to Scotlands benefit).

Or we could walk away, make the deficit real and make Edinburgh the Athens of the North

Do you honestly believe that with the political climate in England that a 10Bn deficit would be tolerated for Scotland for any length of time in the future? My thoughts are that as part of the UK and with the limited control over spending the Scottish Government has then the deficit is only going to get worse and the 'subsidy junkies' jibes will get worse along with it. A Tory led UK Government has different priorities and ideals from me and what I believe to be the majority in Scotland. I would much rather break away from this scenario, take whatever hit is coming (which I believe will be coming either way) and have full control over what we do next to improve things and grow.

km79
Thats a big "maybe" as opposed to the pretty definite "OMFG where did all the money for NHS and pensions go!" of indy.

Maybe the SNP should campaign for full fiscal autonomy, and get the pain over with now?

Mind you, I recall they (SNP) actually started doing that after the 2014 neverrendum, no doubt pumped up with their own indy propaganda about the "nth richest country in the world".

Until they realised (had it explained by someone with a bit of maths) what the results would be, and quietly accepted Barnett (pooling and sharing).
Weirdly without the usual shouty fanfare that accompanies SNP decisions/announcements that make the UK look bad?

sbob - Member
If you think I have (as I imagine many a poster here does) a cache of links poised from several years ago purely for the purposes of arguing on the internet in the future, you are sorely mistaken.
I'll have a search (as could you if you really wanted to take the blinkers off), be patient.

Well if you don't keep a library of your links, why would you expect me to keep a library of your links? 😆

Cheers.

Grumpysculler - the scottish government had good plans laid out but because energy is a reserved policy they couldn't put them into action.

Maybe the SNP should campaign for full fiscal autonomy, and get the pain over with now?

There were two amendments to the last Scotland Bill related to this. The SNP wanted the power to unilaterally declare FFA to be permanently devolved. This got voted down by all other parties.

There was also a Tory amendment to give Scotland FFA. It got voted down too but [b]the SNP voted against it[/b]

EU referendum = Economic disaster where approx 10% of GDP is EU related, and even the most devout Remainers agree only a fraction [u]may[/u] be lost.

Scottish Independence = Great opportunity, where fiscal black hole of 6% of GDP [u]will[/u] have to be funded.

Gotta love the logic.

May's arrogance and hypocrisy over this announcement is absolutely breathtaking and is quite likely to backfire on her, as Scots tend not to like being talked down to by self-serving rich idiots from the south.

I'll vote yes for one reason - to make my vote meaningful. Counts for SFA right now.

Money-wise, it might be worse, might be the same. Might eventually be better.

But in 30 years, at least I'll have a meaningful input within a group of people who are much more aligned with my views and priorities.

But in 30 years, at least I'll have a meaningful input within a group of people who are much more aligned with my views and priorities.

Exactly why I would vote for independence if I was Scottish.

I voted remain for EU as not worth the effort and loss of leaving. Being in the EU is not that big a deal to me.

I would vote leave for Scotland as is worth the effort and loss of leaving. Being governed by a series of right wing governments with screwed up priorities is a big deal to me.

Please remember that many of the stats that central government have been using & quoting for several years have been heavily massaged to make Scotland look a fair bit less wealthy than reality. Plus some systems have been set up specifically to produce these sort of outputs. Scotland will do fine on it's own. We have a huge range of natural resources, tourism, fantastic universities, great people, food, drink fresh air and fresh water. We'll be fine without the English millstone holding us down. Divorce is rarely easy at every step and there will be pain. However, things are usually much better afterwards once the new life begins...

[quote=yourguitarhero ]Money-wise, it might be worse, might be the same.

On what basis do you think it might be the same?

[quote=highlandman ]Please remember that many of the stats that central government have been using & quoting for several years have been heavily massaged to make Scotland look a fair bit less wealthy than reality.

You have noticed that the stats being quoted on here are mostly from the Scottish government? 🙄

How come you guys think you know better, or is it just wishful thinking?

highlandman
I'm repeating myself here, but please explain (using facts) why St Nic doesn't correct the statistics put out by her own government statistics department?
also the pain you speak of.. who will suffer it.. the poor, the weak? If anyone else.. then who?

aracer - Member

You have noticed that the stats being quoted on here are mostly from the Scottish government?

The report is designed to allow users to understand and analyse Scotland’s fiscal position under different scenarios within the current constitutional framework.

They also aren't what the figures would be under an independent scotland.

[img] [/img]

How could we possibly resist this forward thinking vision...

Which bit of that is wrong?

[quote=grumpysculler ]There was also a Tory amendment to give Scotland FFA. It got voted down too but the SNP voted against it

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/snp-loses-full-fiscal-autonomy-5888775

MPs voted 309 to 60 against full fiscal autonomy - which would allow the Scottish Parliament to give itself permanent new powers to raise taxes and control spending.

All 56 of the SNP's MPs backed an amendment but it was defeated overwhelmingly after a Commons debate.

A handful of rebels from the other parties joined the Scottish nationalists, including Labour's Dennis Skinner.

outofbreath - Member
Which bit of that is wrong?

Well, the whole erosion of workers rights bit.. the real reason behind brexit...

You disagree?

fantastic universities

Ah yes remind me of the SNP position on funding uni research, yep that was to stay as part of the Research Councils, and hence, research priorities will still be set by Westminster (& Swindon).

aracer, did you actually read my post? Please try just a little bit harder next time! I'm not talking about the many and varied posts on here, I'm talking about the skewed stance that is the benchmark of Westmonster. London has been deliberately under-representing the yield form Scotland for a long time and unfortunately far too many folk believe the carefully filtered nonsense that frequently makes its way into the UK national press. I loved the Independant's negative spin yesterday on 'Oil price crisis for the SNP'. The oil price is now double what it was a year ago and the north sea is pumping for all its worth, making up for last year. Exploration effort may still be low but anyone working on the production side will tell you about how well things are doing once again.
A benevolent tax regime and collusion between the oil majors and Westminster is holding back the apparent PRT yield. New fields are ready for exploitation as and when the price makes them viable.
There are parallels in other areas of Scotland's tax yield, especially in the grey economy.
Finally, as we won't be paying for a share of the Trident monster, that means England's over ambitious arrogance will come home to roost.
Scotland will do just fine.

"Well, the whole erosion of workers rights bit.."

So workers rights should never change, regardless of circumstance?

'This is not a moment to play politics or create uncertainty', Theresa May tells SNP

Really? Pot . kettle, black?

outofbreath - Member
"Well, the whole erosion of workers rights bit.."

So workers rights should never change, regardless of circumstance?

Nah we should go back to slavery and workhouses, the rich need to get richer, to hell with everyone else.

outofbreath - Member
"Well, the whole erosion of workers rights bit.."

So workers rights should never change, regardless of circumstance?

What changes do you propose?

seosamh77, I think you've answered my question. You can't fault Liam Fox's logic, and you can't even rule out changes to Workers rights yourself.

😆 the logic is full of shit. It puts peoples well being behind profit.

So workers rights should never change, regardless of circumstance?

They should only change for the better, never for worse. And what are these circumstances (capitalist excuses) you mention?

Well it seems to have been established by southern experts that the SNP will make a mess of the Scottish economy after independence.

And that perfectly illustrates the beauty of independence, we can change our government, our votes will have value.

[quote=highlandman ]aracer, did you actually read my post?

Yes, it was standard wishful thinking, hence my response. If you'd been paying attention we've been mostly discussing the Scottish Government's figures on this thread.

The oil price is now double what it was a year ago

[s]#jambafact[/s] about 39 dollars a barrel a year ago, currently about 51.

Finally, as we won't be paying for a share of the Trident monster

Your share of which is tiny compared to the Scottish deficit.

[quote=epicyclo ]Well it seems to have been established by southern experts that the SNP will make a mess of the Scottish economy after independence.

[img] [/img]

I digress but why are the 5-year old ramblings of corrupt, thieving ideologue Liam Fox being edited to make them look current and suddenly doing the rounds again? There's a question.

"And what are these circumstances"

I was already satisfied, bit I'm happy to make up a simple example. Say you're a prehistoric man, starving. The only food available is 10% more dangerous to forage than the last food you foraged.

Stick to principles and die, or forage the food that's slightly more risky?

“If the estimates cited earlier of Scotland's contributions to the UK of £222 billion since 1980 are taken as valid and the population share of the UK's debt is subtracted then Scotland's net contribution to the UK could be
£86 billion.

Should keep us going for 8 years of deficit.... 😆

outofbreath - Member
"And what are these circumstances"

I was already satisfied, bit I'm happy to make up a simple example. Say you're a prehistoric man, starving. The only food available is 10% more dangerous to forage than the last food you foraged.

Stick to principles and die, or forage the food that's slightly more risky?

😆

[quote=outofbreath ]"And what are these circumstances"
I was already satisfied, bit I'm happy to make up a simple example. Say you're a prehistoric man, starving. The only food available is 10% more dangerous to forage than the last food you foraged.
Stick to principles and die, or forage the food that's slightly more risky?

Dirty capitalist

As we seem to be revisiting the same things over and over here is an (edited) post of mine from a few days ago.

we'll deal with it

My translation:
-2Bn temporary westmonster austerity = work of Satan leading to food banks and suicides
-10Bn ongoing SNP austerity = a satisfying challenge for a brave young nation.

no one really knows

Translation:
GERS are the Scottish Governments own figures. The SNP based the book of dreams on GERS when oil was expensive and it fitted their narrative.
They also made changes to how the data is collected to make it more accurate (and it comes with error bars of about 1bn I think).

But now that it doesn't fit the narrative, it's just a remote guess?

[subtext: No-one can know _anything_ about the future _ever_, all evidence that disagrees with me is useless and I'll probably be killed by a truck I saw coming but ignored.]

On the bright side, you all seem to accept that indy would lead to massive hardship for the weakest in society for a long time.

But you don't seem to care as long as the right people (with the right flags) making the cuts. Fair enough I see where you are coming from and your Conservative party membership card is in the post.

(although what your proposing in terms of the fiscal future of Scotland would make a brexiter blush.

"And what are these circumstances"

I was already satisfied, bit I'm happy to make up a simple example. Say you're a prehistoric man, starving. The only food available is 10% more dangerous to forage than the last food you foraged.

Stick to principles and die, or forage the food that's slightly more risky?

Seeing that we are not prehistoric men, what are the circumstances in the 21st century living in a rich western country

epicyclo » Well it seems to have been established by southern experts that the SNP will make a mess of the Scottish economy after independence.

You seem to be more concerned about the location of the commenter than the content of their posts?
I guess thats might be the way to go in a debate about Nationalism, but surely Scottish Nationalism is more inclusive?

Will iScotland have its own Maths?

Will iScotland have its own Maths?

No, but it's unlikely to be a simplistic as yours is.

An interesting read that gives a slight insight in to the complexities of national assets and liabilities, and the division there of.

http://allofusfirst.org/tasks/render/file/?fileID=0E6C9768-E352-B8B1-B418993DB5C0D4AE

[quote=yourguitarhero ]
But in 30 years, at least I'll have a meaningful input within a group of people who are much more aligned with my views and priorities.

Me too.

I was a strong proponent of a no vote back in 2014 and I put way too much misplaced emphasis on how Scotland was more aligned with England, in particular the north. There's a clear division there now and it's clear to me that the mindset, attitude and beliefs are not aligned in the slightest. It's time to break away and make decisions ourselves that are in line with what is needed in Scotland, not balanced against or even slanted towards needs south of the border.

eat_the_pudding

Will iScotland have its own Maths?

Westminster seems to so hell why not?

[i]I digress but why are the 5-year old ramblings of corrupt, thieving ideologue Liam Fox being edited to make them look current and suddenly doing the rounds again? There's a question. [/I]

Probably because he's now in a position of power and still believes it?

eat_the_pudding - Member
Scottish Nationalism is more inclusive?

You tell us, what are your examples of the exclusive nature of scottish nationalism?

eat_the_pudding - Member
...You seem to be more concerned about the location of the commenter than the content of their posts?...

As for mentioning their location, that was because they got all upset last time when I said they were irrelevants because they have no vote because they are not in Scotland.

I'll take what you have said onboard, and if you like, to avoid offending them by calling them southerners, I can start using "foreigners" to describe non-voting commentators from now on.

However in your search for offence you missed the main point of my post.
[i]"And that perfectly illustrates the beauty of independence, we can change our government, our votes will have value."[/i]

"Seeing that we are not prehistoric men, what are the circumstances in the 21st century living in a rich western country"

Frankly, if you have to add complexity to obfuscate in order for your view to hold true it pretty much *has* to be bollocks.

Can't you just make up your own simple modern world example where hypothetical workers are severely disadvantaged by their rights in a hypothetical situation?

Or how about, Port Talbot Steel works where they were all gonna get sacked, unless they gave up their pension?

Or how about, Port Talbot Steel works where they were all gonna get sacked, unless they gave up their pension?

*looks out of window*

"I remember when all this was steel works, as far as the eye can see."

*sigh*

You tell us, what are your examples of the exclusive nature of scottish nationalism?

Well for a start there's the unwritten assumption (shared by you, and directed at me a few days ago.. "why do you hate us?") that posters on here who disagree with Scottish independence must not be Scottish or must live outside Scotland.

Then there's the point I made above that epicyclo seems to value posts less when they are from outside Scotland.

Seems pretty clear to me?

(Please don't answer with examples of English people being nasty.. That's no excuse)

Or how about, Port Talbot Steel works where they were all gonna get sacked, unless they gave up their pension?

capitalist excuse number 1

eat_the_pudding - Member
...Then there's the point I made above that epicyclo seems to value posts less when they are from outside Scotland...

If you don't understand why, I can see why you have difficulty with the concept of independence.

And that explains exclusivity how exactly?

I have not excluded you from anything. I think you have a valid opinion, albeit one that I completely disagree with. And I still think you seem to have an underlying hatred that you don't realize you project through your style of writing.

it's still no proof of exclusivity. I'm happy enough for you to have you opinion.

You seem to be more concerned about the location of the commenter than the content of their posts?

Is this where we start chanting "Lock Her Up" and "Make Scotland Great Again"??

Perhaps we should even think about building a wall, it's all the rage. The Roman's were millennia ahead of their time.

Eat ther pudding - you keep banging on about a ten billion deficit. You have been told numerous times why this is not so but you won't listen - and your posts display a real dislike of the scots and a nasty arrogance

There is no point in debating with someone whos eyes are shut

"And that perfectly illustrates the beauty of independence, we can change our government, our votes will have value."

Only if you vote with the majority. The lines will simply be a bit different.

My general election vote had no value, my candidate was not elected. Only one of my votes in the last Holyrood election made any difference and the time before that, neither vote made a difference. My council votes have had very limited value too. If we leave the UK, that first vote disappears but the others all stay (broadly) the same.

I used to vote Lib Dem. Then I moved house. Voting Lib Dem in any election is now pointless so I don't. It happens in just about any electoral system except for true national PR.

epicyclo.. so you're trying to create annoyance? 🙂

I know some people are trolling: "You've got no central bank and yer da smells of elderberries" etc. etc. but there are serious questions about the economics of iScotland and pointing at someone's nationality doesn't answer them.

How about a serious attempt to fill the gaps. Can you see why just saying "we'll cope" might not cut it with people who have parents in care or no job or expensive health needs?

grumpysculler
Is this where we start chanting "Lock Her Up" and "Make Scotland Great Again"??

The wild irony here is truly wild 😆

[img] [/img]

Scotland is more likely to revert to coalitions imo grumpy. I'd be happy about that.

I've no allegiance to any party and would prefer they were all forced to work with each other. Part of the attraction to me.

All the votes for councils have an effect and the list vote for Holyrood always does as does European elections. the only wasted votes are those for westminster. If the lib dems had any support in Scotland then they would get seats. Trouble is they lied and lied again, sucked up to the tories then you had Carmichael with his admitted lies.

this is why the lib dems are toast.

Scotland runs on proportional electoral systems Lib dems get exactly the seats in line with their votes

at the pudding - you have been told repeatedly that the real picture while bad is not a ten million deficit every year but you insist on the ridiculous 10 billion figure

[quote=tjagain ]Eat ther pudding - you keep banging on about a ten billion deficit. You have been told numerous times why this is not so but you won't listen

Only with hand wavy "we'll fix it" comments - or are you disputing the GERS figures?

What is ridiculous about the official figures?

"capitalist excuse number 1"

I gave you and example that pre-dated capitalism and you didn't like that either!

It makes no odds because once you accept that the economic situation can improve to allow better rights, you've lost the debate, because you've accepted appropriate rights can change
(Unless you want to claim economies improve, but never, ever decline.)

Aracer - they do not show the whole situation - GERS is not the total income and expenditure, does not show cross border payments, does not allow for profits earning in Scotland but reported in England does not show UK strategic spending amongst many other things.

Yes we would have a deficit, yes it would not be 10 billion, yes it would be manageable and yes an independent scotland could grow its economy more without the dead hand of england

Yes we would have a deficit, yes it would not be 10 billion, yes it would be manageable and yes an independent scotland could grow its economy more without the dead hand of england

Fortunately for the more rationally minded people of your country.......it'll never happen!

I've been told have I?

Cheers for that. and I await the link to a serious treatment of Scottish economics that reinforces me being 'telt' 🙂

As I've asked you before.. If this clear evidence exists why doesn't St Nic kick her stats dept. up the arse?

Yes we would have a deficit, yes it would not be 10 billion

You are absolutely correct, it wouldn't be £10 billion. The 2016 figure is actually just shy of £15 billion.

The allocation of tax is a pretty good approximation of how profits would be allocated under international tax principles.

They are "estimates" under "current constitutional arrangements".

They aren't the whole picture.

eat the pudding - you wonder why people call you out when your posts have such a disdainful and sneering tone

Too wee, too skint, to fearty seems to be your line

They aren't the whole picture.

So enlighten us, at present the picture presented reassembles the one in "Art"

Aracer - mefty / eat the pudding

Here is some alternative analysis showing a very different picture with a load of links to follow. Before the oil price drop tho but shows a very different set of figures and the scottish Government is working on the numbers right now without any oil at all

http://www.businessforscotland.com/10-key-economic-facts-that-prove-scotland-will-be-a-wealthy-independent-nation/

mefty - Member
They aren't the whole picture.
So enlighten us, at present the picture presented reassembles the one in "Art"

Show us a full break down for uk assets and liabilities and how those negotiations turn out and they we will be able to start see the whole picture.

Or can you look into your Chrystal ball and tell us how an independent Scottish government will budget their tax and spend?

I agree an unlikely task. Which I am fairly open about.

the GERS figures are purely descriptive of how scotland's financies look "within the union". I agree, they could be better, much better.

tjagain, surely you know how frustrating it is when people claim information exists (against all evidence) and then fail to produce evidence themselves?

So, still [citation required] for your claim about the deficit.

As a start heres an [url= https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/aug/24/scottish-finances-worsen-fall-oil-revenues-15bn-deficit ]article[/url] where St Nic is quoted screaming at the error in the figures her stats dept produced in 2016.

Oh no, actually she completely accepts them and tries to spin them (and fails).

Waiting... (but not distainfully if that helps 🙂

PS saying that "the GERS figure don't apply to an independent Scotland" is a bit like saying "my height today bears no relation to my height tomorrow" .. some things don't change fast.

EDIT PS "Business for Scotland" the SNP front? Don't make me laugh. Have a look at [url= http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/who-do-business-for-scotland-represent.html ]the[/url].

You do realise that you're trying to rewrite a reality that Nichola Sturgeon actually accepts don't you?

God, how long is it 'til the next referendum - 2020?

How much BS can we take?

Several pages ago, one Nat claimed IIRC that a left of centre/green coalition was what was needed. How is it doing so far? Ok, refused to raise taxes, and lots of bills passed I'm sure.... 🙂

Joe - exclusive - you have 32 regions/councils (whatever the term) IIRC. The exclusive club included 4 of the 32 that voted YES last time. That makes the Honourable Company of Edinburgh Golfers look inclusive (although sad to see them bending over to being rogered by HSBC's demands today)

Joe - exclusive - you have 32 regions/councils (whatever the term) IIRC. The exclusive club included 4 of the 32 that voted YES last time.

eat the pudding - you simply are not listening, don't want to hear and your aggressive and condescending tone of your posts is very off putting

I have told you why the Gers figures do not tell the whole story. You don't want to think about it you simply want to continue your "too wee, too skint, too feart line

It includes debt repayments for debts not incurred in scotland - and the numbers around this will not be known until the negotiations are complete. It includes no value for the UK assets of which scotland owns a share - how much is the bank of england and the houses of parliament worth? Want us to take a share of the debt we get a share of the assetts
It does not include company profits raised in scotland but reported in london
It does not include cross border stuff like electricity
There are many other flaws with the Gers figures that mean they do not tell the whole story

I wonder how the Russian cash and cyber power is going to be used.....

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15153671.Nato__Independent_Scotland_could_be_out_in_cold/?ref=rss

Here's a list of the countries that have had independence from the UK. None of them wish to return to UK rule despite prognostications of doom by UK economic experts for many of them at the time.

Why should we believe UK doom sayers now? Or perhaps they can explain why our system of govt is so inferior or intellectually challenged that we won't be able to do as well as, say Malta, or New Zealand.
.
.

[url= https://c1.staticflickr.com/6/5726/33310657121_5908ae6085_b.jp g" target="_blank">https://c1.staticflickr.com/6/5726/33310657121_5908ae6085_b.jp g"/> [/img][/url]

It includes no value for the UK assets of which scotland owns a share - how much is the bank of england and the houses of parliament worth? Want us to take a share of the debt we get a share of the assetts

I didn't realise you wanted to pay for the decommissioning of Sellafield etc as part of the settlement. Assets come with liabilities.

tjagain,
Please don't join seosamh77 in accusing me of disliking scots, thats genuinely all in your head.

Maybe to help you understand my "tone"...

If I was recommending 10-14Bn of conservative government cuts in Scotland. (equivalent to more than the cash spent on the Scottish NHS), and then pointing to the "conservative businessmans association" for evidence that it wouldn't matter. And pointing out that things would actually be better because reasons!!!

What tone would you adopt with me?

Thats genuinely (at least a wee bit) like what a lot of you are doing, but you don't see it because its wrapped in flag.

big_n_daft - Member
I didn't realise you wanted to pay for the decommissioning of Sellafield etc as part of the settlement. Assets come with liabilities.

Are you saying the UK's balance of assets is less than its liabilities?

Sounds like a good reason to escape from incompetent UK governance.

It is Joe and we know how many voted NO and how many voted REMAIN don't we? Not that anyone has been spinning this yet. No words like "overwhelming' and the like 🙂

Anyway, save you powder. Its going to be a long epic before the BS is over. We are having a Hard Brexshit in the meantime dont-you-know!!

eat the pudding - its how your posts come over - sneering and condescending with unpleasant pejorative usage to describe anyone on the independence side. Its not in my head its how you sound. Its really quite naswty in tone and why you are being called out on it. Its nothing to do with being wrapped in a flag - thats another sneer from you. I am no blood and soil nationalist

There is a deficit yes. Its not ten billion and its only in this unusual economic times. for almost all of the last 30 years scotland has been in surplus.

It includes no value for the UK assets of which scotland owns a share - how much is the bank of england and the houses of parliament worth? Want us to take a share of the debt we get a share of the assetts

I didn't realise you wanted to pay for the decommissioning of Sellafield etc as part of the settlement. Assets come with liabilities.

It's these kind of debates that make me think an impasse could be reached that prevents Scotland ever leaving. Ditto, UK leaving the EU.

One side says we we can't practically leave without X and the other side just says no, we don't accept that.

What happens then? Leave anyway and subsequently chase it through the courts? What if it's a deal dealbreakingly large sum?