Scotland Indyref 2

You ain't exactly a beacon of truth yourself. Full of assumptions and theory.

Feel free to point anything incorrect out km, feel free

Lol I don't need to, helpfuly you write them down and post them several times a day.

Alan Baxter in disguise?

Meanwhile everyone but the SNP is banging on about independence

Yes you are right, they are banging on about reserving the right to have a referendum

Totally different.........

Full of assumptions and theory.

Isn't that the foundation of Science ?

Yes you are right, they are banging on about reserving the right to have a referendum

Yes using Brexit as justification but with no ability or even desire to hold a Referendum soon enough to allow them to gain Independence before the UK leaves the EU. It's this sort of means to an end duplicity which is so aggravating. I do also believe without the tactical voting guidance (*) from the SNP Leave would have won more comfortably

(*) Vote Remain as it's important Scotland delivers a result different to the UK in the event it's Leave so we can use that to justify Ref 2

big_n_daft - Member
they are banging on about reserving the right to have a referendum

Why do you fear that?

Where did I say I was afraid?

I'm still waiting for the "the English are stopping immigration to Scotland" sirens to explain why Oldham appears to be a preference for immigrants compared to Scotland

Don't you believe in democracy?

Yes I do, just don't believe in subdivision because you don't get the result you like

Personally I think May should call Sturgeons bluff, pass the law to allow another referendum but put a clock on it for end of March so matching the Article 50 initiation.

big_n_daft - Member
Don't you believe in democracy?
Yes I do, just don't believe in subdivision because you don't get the result you like

The "subdivision" is now well established. There's no putting the genie back in the bottle now.

I agree that would be May's best course of action to protect the union. It's a dangerous gamble both ways at the moment though.

big_n_daft - Member
Why do you fear that?
Where did I say I was afraid?

I'm still waiting for the "the English are stopping immigration to Scotland" sirens to explain why Oldham appears to be a preference for immigrants compared to Scotland

I've explained, it isn't. Plenty of migrants up here, that are more than welcome.

The big issue the scottish gov has is with the uk revoking visa's to some non-EU migrants, which is fair comment, the uk is wrong imo and reacting to hysteria with wide brush strokes when regional consideration should be given. But there's some bullshit and political opportunism going on that isn't fair comment.

I'm still waiting for the "the English are stopping immigration to Scotland" sirens to explain why Oldham appears to be a preference for immigrants compared to Scotland

is THM [i]still[/i] answering me? HOw odd.

Big and daft - if you actually follow scottish politics you will see far more public statement from the unionist parties about the SNPs supposed obsession with independence compared to the statements the SNP make.

is THM still answering me?

More correcting you catalogue of falsehoods - an endless task. Is it deliberate BTW or are you simply playing a game with Jambas? How is the upcoming massive recession or are you conceding that point gracefully now??

If you actually follow scottish politics you will see [s]far more public statement from the unionist parties about the SNPs supposed obsession with independence compared to the statements the SNP make.[/s] a party leader rather skilfully (or desperately) managing a party's obsession with independence (there was a conference recently you may have seen) while ensuring that she doesn't get called up on it.

But you are correct (no really) to point out that the obsession/smokescreen is stopping the proper level of scrutiny of the failure to deliver. Thats a good start at least

Having just watched a few minutes of the frothing rabid brexiters on QT last night, I think independence for Scotland to escape from these deeply unpleasant lunatics seems like an awesome idea.

I don't care how much economic hardship it might (or might not bring), it's worth every penny to not be associated with them. And it's also worth every penny to make sure that never again do the incompetent fools who have lead us to this awful place get a chance to screw anything else up in quite such monumental fashion.

The only thing stopping me from demanding a new referendum on Scottish independence from my MP is the slightly irksome fact that I live in Cambridge.

Having just watched a few minutes of the frothing rabid brexiters on QT last night,

Other TV programmes available

think independence for Scotland to escape from these deeply unpleasant lunatics seems like an awesome idea.

Your assumption is that there aren't deeply unpleasant lunatics north of the border? It's a nirvana of moderate political thought?

yes big and daft. Ukip have less than 2% of the vote up here and tories well under 20%

We simply do not have the same number of idiots and depth of idiocy on the right.

We voted overwhelmingly "remain" We don't want nuclear weapons, we don't want to go the the middle east and kill brown people

There is no significant jingoistic little englander tendency up here and before you try to tar the SNP with that brush try to understand what civic nationalism means

I attended a public debate on the eu referendum. That in itself was a rarity compared to the indyref when there were events and meetings every day. At the meeting the speakers for leave and those inclined to vote for leave commented on what a relief it was to be able to speak about the leave campaign in different terms from the right wing image it presented on tv and in the papers.
3 points arise from that
1 There was a left of centre group who wanted to leave
2 The image portrayed by brexit may have put that group off from campaigning or voting
3 The tv/papers didn't publicise any left or moderate campaign to leave. Why not?

Wow .. 7 pages , and still no-one in favour of independence has had a stab at answering my question about what 15Bn should be cut from Scottish Gov spending in year 1 of independence (and following).

[img] [/img]

Just some mentions about avoiding the disaster of brexit.
Personally I'm completely against Brexit, but I don't see it causing as many issues for the UK as Scoxit would for Scotland.

In other news ..
-Announcement of new navy building on the Clyde leads to huge number of apologies from SNH commenters for "broken promises" comments . [tumbleweed sounds]
-SNP voters suddenly grasp that there has been _no_ new legislation from the scottish government since the Scottish election and begin to wonder what they actually voted for (apart from obviously passing on tory benefit cuts to scotland and blaming 'westmonster' for it when they have the power to raise taxes and prevent it). [if only]

yes big and daft. Ukip have less than 2% of the vote up here and tories well under 20%

UKIP got over 10% of the vote in the last European elections.

Tories got 22% in the last Holyrood elections.

So, um, no.

We don't want nuclear weapons

The polls suggest that Scotland is split on the issue - depending on the wording of the question you can get results in favour, against or evenly split.

P.S. I'm glad the SNP has deplored the terrible Torys threats to use European citizens from outside the UK as political pawns to get concessions from the EU.

That does make a change from the pre-indyref 2014 attitude though...
[url= http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/sturgeon-warns-europeans-could-lose-right-to-stay-1-3475453 ]Sturgeon warns Europeans could lose right to stay[/url]

eat_the_pudding - Member
Wow .. 7 pages , and still no-one in favour of independence has had a stab at answering my question about what 15Bn

What 69 billion is the uk government going to cut next year?

grumpysculler - Member

yes big and daft. Ukip have less than 2% of the vote up here and tories well under 20%

UKIP got over 10% of the vote in the last European elections.

Tories got 22% in the last Holyrood elections.

So, um, no.

We don't want nuclear weapons

The polls suggest that Scotland is split on the issue - depending on the wording of the question you can get results in favour, against or evenly split.

Hmmm... so 10% at their high water mark ...as opposed to the 32% in England.

Tories 22% Labour 22.6% SNP more than both put together. How do you think Ruth Tank Commander will do now May is in power. Of course I am sure you realise that the 8% up swing in Tory votes coincide with an 9% drop in Labour's share.

As for your last point, well you state that if you reword the question you can get whatever answer you want. 😆

Looking at the numbers is interesting, people ask what are you wanting different from Westminster.

Well that's pretty obvious, if you look at westminster politics, the FPTP system sets everything up for partisan politics, where as the setup at holyrood is geared towards co-alition government, not that it excludes majorites, but it's more likely.

So really it's a fundamental shift in how things are approached, more consensus that one faction ruling over another that defines British poliltics.

I'm not saying Holyrood is free from it, but alot of it at the moment is fired up by the constitutional question, just that it's geared up not to be as confrontational.

So a fairly fundamental change I think.

[quote=eat_the_pudding ]Wow .. 7 pages , and still no-one in favour of independence has had a stab at answering my question about what 15Bn should be cut from Scottish Gov spending in year 1 of independence (and following).

To be fair, a few people have explained why those Scottish Government figures are wrong, made up, or inaccurate because they're all pro-rataed from UK figures. That or explained that the gap will be closed by not paying for things which total a fraction of that 15Bn.

[quote=seosamh77 ]What 69 billion is the uk government going to cut next year?

I'm not entirely sure where that 69bn figure is from - but presumably you're pointing out that there's another ~7bn to be added to the 15bn gap Scotland has?

"Well that's pretty obvious, if you look at westminster politics, the FPTP system sets everything up for partisan politics, where as the setup at holyrood is geared towards co-alition government, not that it excludes majorites, but it's more likely"

Exactly, NOBODY was ever meant to have a majority at Holyrood.

@seosamh77
"What 69 billion is the uk government going to cut next year?"

I have 2 answers:

a) UK cuts of any size would be irrelevant to an independent Scotland (which would be suffering a massively larger proportional cuts).

b) If only we lived in a part of the UK where the Notional Government had the option to live up to their rhetoric raise taxes and offset the cuts?
But wait! We do live in such a place! So its not options they lack. Just balls.

If you voted SNP or Tory in Scotland I'm afraid you may have diminished your right to complain about benefits cuts getting 'passed on'.

@aracer
"To be fair, a few people have explained why those Scottish Government figures are wrong, made up, or inaccurate because they're all pro-rataed from UK figures. That or explained that the gap will be closed by not paying for things which total a fraction of that 15Bn."

The figures are "wrong, made up, or inaccurate" despite being from the Scottish Governments own statisticians (Under the authority of an SNP government)? Tee Hee 🙂

They haven't "explained" anything on either front.
They haven't produced any figures at all.
They have a) guessed, b) surmised or possibly c) fabricated, but not explained.

Even Alex Salmonds recent claims ( a) b) or c) I wonder? ) of "£35Bn of spending saved by an independent Scotland" have been looked into and amount to a (generous) 0.5Bn saving per year.

So only 14.5 Bn of cuts then.

The question is (still) where from?

Hmmm... so 10% at their high water mark ...as opposed to the 32% in England.

Tories 22% Labour 22.6% SNP more than both put together. How do you think Ruth Tank Commander will do now May is in power. Of course I am sure you realise that the 8% up swing in Tory votes coincide with an 9% drop in Labour's share.

Which are both fair comments, but have nothing to do with tjagain misrepresenting Scottish politics to manufacture support for his arguments.

As for your last point, well you state that if you reword the question you can get whatever answer you want.

And so perhaps the nats (including tjagain) shouldn't claim the populace support unilateral disarmament when that is far from clear...

eat_the_pudding - Member
@seosamh77
"What 69 billion is the uk government going to cut next year?"

I have 2 answers:

a) UK cuts of any size would be irrelevant to an independent Scotland (which would be suffering a massively larger proportional cuts).

Scotlands deficit under the uk is about x2 the uk as a whole(at the moment, although, I doubt the veracity of the figures, but lets go with them, a vague guess is as close as anyone is going to get), it's hardly a staggering amount. But it also points out that under the uk, scotland isn't being managed properly, so... not exactly something to be bigging up, when it's yourselves that have been holding the purse strings for the last 300 years. If you want to dictate finance, you take the blame when the numbers don't tally. (which leads on nicely to the next point.)

b) If only we lived in a part of the UK where the Notional Government had the option to live up to their rhetoric raise taxes and offset the cuts?
But wait! We do live in such a place! So its not options they lack. Just balls.

Give it a bit of time ffs, the powers are just there and are only partial, you can judge that in 10 years, not now. No government can just raise tax all at once, if those powers are used, it's better that they are used slowly over a longer period.

it's hardly a staggering amount.

Until you apply for membership of the EU. Then the anti-austerity party (sic) will have to find a brand new name!

Might not want to join the EU.

Plus given the expansionist nature of the EU, probably best waiting til they come knocking on the door. Which they will.

...and then you will have achieved your goal of [s]independence[/s] subjegating yourselves to an even mightier body that W'ster. You have made it up! 😉

teamhurtmore - Member
...and then you will have achieved your goal of independence subjegating yourselves to an even mightier body that W'ster. You have made it up!

Maybe maybe not, depends what they offer when they come calling.

to say it can only be detrimental to Scotland interests does nothing but show you're natural bias.

No - its shows an understanding of what happens when you impose a fixed currency regime across an area that does not qualify for one. [b]The neutral interpretation is that it has to end in tears. [/b]And the evidence is clear, irrefutable and awful.

The fact that the SNP view this as a sensible option merely shows how poor their grasp of reality remains. Scotland deserves better. Much better.

Again, you're only taking the default approach that Scotland must accept the euro, this isn't going to be the case. You narrow the options well beyond what is possible to fit your own narrative.

teamhurtmore - Member
subjegating yourselves to an even mightier body

An interesting turn of words from someone pro-EU.

No, just following a logical chain of thought

Of course, the Scottish minority in favour of IS COULD finally be honest and come round FINALLY to the fact that the independence that they seek can only be achieved with an independent currency. Once you get your head round this point, you can start to move forward. Ok, so what needs to be I place to have our own currency, what does this mean, what are the challenges that need to be overcome, etc.

But we have yet to have that debate - altough good that the chosen Economic expert bought in from the US now gets this. A Nobel prize had to be good for something finally - so you are left with crass debates and flawed thinking/preparation.. Scotland deserves better. much better.

I am pro the arrangement that we had with the EU - access minus € minus Schengen - rather than pro EU tbc? I am rather partial to their wines too.

teamhurtmore - Member
I am pro the arrangement that we had with the EU - access minus € minus Schengen - rather than pro EU tbc

tbh england and wales out of the EU, precludes Scotland, and still Ireland from being members of Schengen. to state we will get took into it is scare mongering.

teamhurtmore - Member
No, just following a logical chain of thought

Of course, the Scottish minority in favour of IS COULD finally be honest and come round FINALLY to the fact that the independence that they seek can only be achieved with an independent currency. Once you get your head round this point, you can start to move forward. Ok, so what needs to be I place to have our own currency, what does this mean, what are the challenges that need to be overcome, etc.

But we have yet to have that debate - altough good that the chosen Economic expert bought in from the US now gets this. A Nobel prize had to be good for something finally - so you are left with crass debates and flawed thinking/preparation.. Scotland deserves better. much better.

I'm for an independent currency, can't say I know all the ins and outs of that, but I'm sure I'll acquaint myself with them over the years to come.

I'm also for it, whether it makes us a little worse or a little better off initially.

@seosamh77
So as you don't seem to be arguing with the fact that the 15(ish)Bn of annual defecit exists and that it would take a long time to grow out of and therefore cause massive austerity which (as always) would disproportionately affect the poorest in society.

a) Do you think its a price worth paying? (in order to acheive FREEDOM®)

b) Do you think that the SNP should be up front about the immediate financial position during a future Indyref II in the same way that they really really were not during Indyref I?

Re: "Give it a bit of time ffs, the powers are just there and are only partial, you can judge that in 10 years, not now. No government can just raise tax all at once, if those powers are used, it's better that they are used slowly over a longer period."

I'm not sure if thats a "Yay for careful government", or just an indicator that maybe the light is dawning that the SNP aren't really as radical a leftist party as many of their supporters once thought?

We may have passed peak SNP, as the green but oil loving, leftie but corporation friendly, nationalist but inclusive! shine begins to tarnish a bit (I hope).

If you look at everything thats happened in the UK over the last few years its hard to imagine the political cards falling more in the SNPs favour than they already have.

But the Scottish people don't want another referendum, and if they had one they would still vote to be part of the UK.

Yay for democracy! (and one of the few bright spots after the brexit numptytude* had their say).

* A voting block of numpties

I know what currency I will use. The one I will have in my pocket.

Grumpysculler - not misrepresenting - stating facts. Last general election which is the only fair comparison with England as scottish only elections use different polling methods

percentages were
SNP 50%
Labour 25%
Tory 15%
Lib Dems 7.5%
UKIP 1.6%
Green 1.3%

Or look at holyrood. The only real difference is that Tories reached a high point of 22% slightly over what I said UKIP 2% again

take an average over recent elections you will again see this huge difference with tories around 20% usually under, UKIp around 2% even given the outlier you mention

There is a huge difference politically between Scotland and England. Cherry picking outliers to try to make out I was wrong is just intellectually dishonest and makes you look silly.

If Westminster elections used the same system as Holyrood you would have around 1/4 of the MPs Ukip. We have no UKIP msps.

Eat the pudding - even now the powers the scottish government have over taxes are so limited and can raise so little money ( cos the costs would be enormous in relation to the amounts raised) and that the actions the SNP would really like to take are not within their remit then I for one do not believe they should be used.