Scotland Indyref 2

When you step away from the ideas of the UK and EU and think

1. What form of union is in our interests and why, what features does that union need to have and not have and what are the costs and benefits

2. What from of independence is in our interests and why, what do we want to have full sovereignty over and what powers are better shared, what types of dependency do we want to avoid and why

Then, and only then, bring back the UK and the EU and then do a quick cross check against 1 and 2. The issues become crystal clear. Unfortunately the main agenda is to currently obscure that clarity and make it as opaque as possible to satisfy the very narrow interests of the narcissists.

It will be ugly to watch

[i]Support for independence does seem to be growing slowly.[/I]

It will do purely with demographics anyway I reckon, as the young will be out in force this time around.

We live in the Borders which was pro-stay (33/66) and pro-remain (41/59) - but only just over 100k population, so almost a rounding error.

Tbh THM, the issue isn't entirely financial for me, I'm quite happy to take a short term hit for long term gain.

It will be ugly, yes.

[quote=Nobeerinthefridge ]Tbh THM, the issue isn't entirely financial for me

I'm assuming it isn't for the vast majority of people who'd vote leave - the rest are just a bit daft.

Nobeer my view is its a long term hit in absolute terms, ie Scotland will be much poorer vs today. (Brexit worst case is/was UK will grow less but still grow). Plus the point TMH is driving at is as a smaller country applying to the EU even if successful influence will be close to zero

Bingo. We just need Ninfan to complete the Four horseman of the apocalypse, I'm sure he'll be along in a minute. 😆

It's not purely financial for me either.

[i]Tbh THM, the issue isn't entirely financial for me, I'm quite happy to take a short term hit for long term gain.[/I]

Pure Brexit which is why May is on dodgy ground having a pop at independence.

Boarding. Currency issue is more complicated. What Scotland will be asked for currency wise we don't know, my feeling is EU will not allow Scottish Pound and possibly not GBP either. EU will try and play Scotland off against UK as we leave, that could really squeeze Scotland in a very bad way. As any EU agreements must be ratified by 27 I simply don't see how that could be done on amy quick timetable post a 2018 Q4 Referendum

Nobeer Chapeau 🙂

BoardinBob - Member

I was a no voter. I'm now yes.

Every single no voter I've personally spoken to is now yes.

Allow me to be your exception then.

I'm certainly a 'softer' No than before, but they've still got to come up with some decent answers before I'd tick the other box

Support for independence does seem to be growing slowly.

Really? Are the Pro indy camp aware of the latest official forecasts for North Se oil tax revenues were cut again by more than a third? And that was from November, not following the oil price crash!

They are now saying the MOST oil and gas are likely to contribute to the public purse is £1billion. Slightly less than the SNP forecast for 2017/18 during the indyref campaign..... up to £11.8 billion.

Surely the Scottish people realise they have dodged a cannon ball?

We don't need oil to become independent, there is much more to life than how much money is in the public purse.

What do we need then?

[quote=km79 ]We don't need oil to become independent, there is much more to life than how much money is in the public purse.

Whilst I'm here - what do you reckon makes a real difference to your quality of life then? Whether you're governed from Westminster or Holyrood?

Really? Are the Pro indy camp aware of the latest official forecasts for North Se oil tax revenues were cut again by more than a third? And that was from November, not following the oil price crash!

They are now saying the MOST oil and gas are likely to contribute to the public purse is £1billion. Slightly less than the SNP forecast for 2017/18 during the indyref campaign..... up to £11.8 billion.

Surely the Scottish people realise they have dodged a cannon ball?

votes these days seem to be about restoring national pride, demonising foreign political elites, sovereignity and other such nonsense

economically and rationally brexit makes no sense but the 'will of the people' cannot be ignored

the question is are scots smarter than the british and american voters ?

Seeing how Brexit is shaping up, Scotland being fully in control of its own destiny seems the way forward, for better or worse. At least there's then only one set of government to blame/hold to account.
I think an iScotland should think hard about fully rejoining the EU though. The UK currently has vetos and special arrangements that would not be given to a new member such as iScotland. iScotland being in single market would be a must though.

I was a no last time and am still no fan of the SNP.

economically and rationally brexit makes no sense but the 'will of the people' cannot be ignored

the question is are scots smarter than the british and american voters ?

I'm not sure the "smart" choice is apparent yet, things might be a lot clearer come Autumn 2018.. or not

[quote=dmorts ]I think an iScotland should think hard about fully rejoining the EU though.
...
iScotland being in single market would be a must though.

Hmm

dmorts » I think an iScotland should think hard about fully rejoining the EU though.
...
iScotland being in single market would be a must though.

Hmm

[s]Insightful[/s]

To clarify by 'in', I mean have access at least.

THM

1. What form of union is in our interests and why, what features does that union need to have and not have and what are the costs and benefits

2. What from of independence is in our interests and why, what do we want to have full sovereignty over and what powers are better shared, what types of dependency do we want to avoid and why

[quote=dmorts ]To clarify by 'in', I mean have access at least.

You are TM and I claim my £5

You are TM and I claim my £5

Ha! I've just spat my tea out all over my tartan suit.... wait..oh

EDIT: really I don't know what should be done. One could write endless amounts on internet forums and its not going to change the fact you're not really in control. In an iScotland that's out of the EU at least there would only be one set of people in charge. It's almost a fatigue or wearing down that's brought me to think it's the best way forward

[quote=dmorts ]It's almost a fatigue or wearing down that's brought me to think it's the best way forward

By such means Donald Trump is elected...

One thing that people don't seem to be acknowledging is the size of the swing that the Brexit vote caused. The press are pushing the idea Brexit resulted in no change in support for independence whereas in actual fact 25% of the population changed their mind. It was just that they changed in both directions.

The main question then is whether voters can be convinced of the benefits of the single market (notice that I said the single market, not the EU). May seems to have kicked the idea of staying in the single market into touch.

I honestly believe that a lot of the resistance to the single market will disappear the more it is debated. Say what you like about the White Paper, it provided a framework for the debate where specifics could be challenged. The SNP needed 127 pages to set out it's plans, the brexiteers wrote theirs on the side of a bus. Looking forward to the debate.

If Denmark, Sweden, Finland can all be viable and rich countries Scotland with its wealth of natural resources can be as well. What do we need to make this happen? control of our economy

Whilst I'm here - what do you reckon makes a real difference to your quality of life then? Whether you're governed from Westminster or Holyrood?

How we spend the money we have and who we spend it on. How we treat the worst off in society and look after the vulnerable. How wealth is created and distributed. How we look after and manage our resources to the benefit of all. Foreign policy and defence, how we conduct ourselves when dealing with others.

2. What from of independence is in our interests and why, what do we want to have full sovereignty over and what powers are better shared, [b]what types of dependency do we want to avoid and why[/b]

Avoid: The Tories and/or sneering westminster types
Why: I'd get hit with the banhammer if I used the appropriate language

Being goverened from Holyrood would / does make a huge difference to us. Just not in ways the right winfgers like. A health service free of market idology that wastes >10% of funding in England. No more killing of brown folk in their own countries. Sensible energy policy, sensible land ownership and access policies. Social services to look after the poor nd needy not to penalise them.

A left of centre, green and international looking government. Yes it makes a huge difference and independence would make it better.

[quote=tjagain ]
A left of centre, green and international looking government. Yes it makes a huge difference and independence would make it better.

+100%

First they need to have some form of answer to what currency we use, that's what scuppered the last one. Does it REALLY matter what? Euro/GBP (well, that does)/The Poond. Plus/minuses to them all. They can't just go with "We're not sure"

And also to admit taxes would be higher in an independent Scotland if we want more public services. Which, personally, I'm OK with.

Yes it makes a huge difference and independence would make it better.

Except that the difference the policies you suggest would make are less than those caused by the economic issues you dismiss as trifles. Because however you like to spin it, you spend most of your post talking about money (the rest appears to be stuff already covered by devolution). Clearly you don't have to be a right winger to realise that's what it does come down to.

Compare and contrast the amount spent killing brown people in their own countries with Scotlands deficit...

And also to admit taxes would be higher in an independent Scotland if we want more public services. Which, personally, I'm OK with.

Which is all very well, but i don't think any of the major parties are with you there. They do at least have that much sense.

Scotland does not have a deficit or at least over the last 30 years has only been in deficit a couple of them.

There is absolutely no reason Scotland could not be a rich independent country - after all Denmark etc can be and we have natural resources they don't have

Er, yes it does, and the last 30 years won't help you with the next 10. The only way it ever hasn't is by including oil revenue, which most now agree shouldn't be used as a fundamental part of the economic argument.

Denmark hasn't set up trade barriers with its biggest trading partner, though I'm not sure why it's hugely more relevant than any other similar sized country, plenty of which are rather worse off. There's no reason you couldn't be like some other random country - the reality is you need to propose a way to get to where Denmark is if that's what you want and is a long way from where you are. Otherwise it's just a pipe dream.

tj ..no defecit!
Clearly you haven't read the scottish governments own figures.
Which lead to this graph.
[img] [/img]

That 10Bn defecit (Proportionally greater than any EU country, even Greece) means that in year 1 Scotland would be 10Bn short, 20 in year 2 etc (even allowing for pretty miraculous growth in the economy).

So which bits of Scottish spending from the graph below would YOU not do in Year 1? NHS (11.2Bn) Half of social care (11.4Bn) Please let me know so that we can tell what bits of the new free scotland we can enjoy and which bits will be worth sacrificing for "freedom"
(or austerity doublemax which is what it would actually be).

I asked this before (which bits will we not pay for) and no-one actually answered. Strange when people seem so confident when just waving their hands.

[img] [/img]

Info from [url= http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2016_07_01_archive.html ]chokkablog[/url]

That'll [s]shut 'em up[/s], make em think, Eat the Pud!

No pudding for TJ and his Pals.

Good post ETP.

I'm going to make a sweeping generalisation but, here goes:

I think that on average Yes voters are less intelligent than No voters*

For that reason, a lot of Yes voters will willingly ignore compelling economic arguments.

*based on observing quality of grammar and spelling in FaceBook comments, therefore not 100% scientific.

^ Shite.

Yay! In half a page we have had both the too poor and too stupid arguments....What happened to all the lovebombing? Maybe go and look at some of your fellow master racers comments on the likes of do not break our unity/smash the SNP sites before you make sweeping generalisations.

also @km79

We don't need oil to become independent, there is much more to life than how much money is in the public purse.

If thats true, I assume you were fine with George Osbornes "Tory austerity" and said nothing against it?

Does it really not matter to you what pays for the NHS? Social care? Education?

Really?

Heres some homework.
What was the largest percentage cut in the worst year of Osbornes Tory austerity (actual cuts not scottish government predictions)?
What percentage is 10Bn (Scottish Deficit) of 68.4Bn (Scottish Spending)?

If one of those numbers raises your hackles (because Tory!);
and the other leaves you feeling fine (because SNP!),
Then you have problems.

there is much more to life than how much money is in the public purse.

Wasn't that a core Brexit argument?

Wasn't that a core Brexit argument?

No

eat the pudding - as you well know those figures do not show the whole picture.

But still. too poor, too wee, too feart

Yes transition would be tricky but there is no economic reason why scotland - a land blessed with abundant natural resources would not be a rich country once we are no longer being held back by englands stupid economic policies

duckman
I didn't say "too poor".

I showed the (scottish government) figures for a realistic first year of "freedom" and asked you what you would cut to cope.

If you think Scotland can afford it. Tell me how?

If you think losing the equivalent of the money needed to run the NHS (every year until the Scottish economy catches up) is a price worth paying, then just say that. Everyone is entitled to an opinion.

km79
Really? Thats all you have?

It's not "money" its hospital beds, care home places, teachers, a social safety net for the poor and unemployed.

If you don't give a "shite" about that then carry on, and I look forward to seeing the healing and restoring powers of wrapping yourself in a flag.

Firstly unless Westminster goes for the hard leave option which would be in the scots favour theer will have to be transitional arrangements for several years so the 10 billion in year one is nonsense

Secondly as you well know the 10 billion is only a snapshot and does not cover everything by any means on both sides of the equation - the true deficit is a lot less.

tjagain
I look forward to your educational economic analysis with graphs and such.

For the avoidance of doubt, I know scotland can survive as an independent country, but even the SNP are no longer telling us that we would be the "n"th richest (that nonsense came from the convenient spike in oil prior to the 2014 vote).

Most people who are in favour of independence seem to think that that step would make Scotlands NHS, education system, social care etc etc "better".

But the reality is that even today, with more money than they would realistically have for maybe the first 20 or 30 years of independence the Scottish Government has worse results than the English NHS, and far worse results in Education (where they have full control).

How will independence (and less money) make that better?

Will the first year of independence lead to more money for the NHS?
If not the first year, which year?

Where are the facts that say it will be "better" or is it flags all the way down?

tjagain,
Then those figures shoiuld be available in a graph or table from a reputable government source?

[citation required]

Its all out there if you want to see it - information and misinformation over decades.

for example - firms selling products in Scotland but with their HQ in england - which side of that equation is their profit from Scotland on? Oh its not included? Funny that. Lots o9f examples like that.

Seems like organising Sexit would be like Brexit but worse... although the background is somewhat different.

[quote=eat_the_pudding ]tj ..no defecit!
Clearly you haven't read the scottish governments own figures.
Which lead to this graph.

That 10Bn defecit (Proportionally greater than any EU country, even Greece) means that in year 1 Scotland would be 10Bn short, 20 in year 2 etc (even allowing for pretty miraculous growth in the economy).
So which bits of Scottish spending from the graph below would YOU not do in Year 1? NHS (11.2Bn) Half of social care (11.4Bn) Please let me know so that we can tell what bits of the new free scotland we can enjoy and which bits will be worth sacrificing for "freedom"
(or austerity doublemax which is what it would actually be).
I asked this before (which bits will we not pay for) and no-one actually answered. Strange when people seem so confident when just waving their hands.

Info from chokkablog

http://wingsoverscotland.com/a-trivial-omission/#more-92276

Deloitte acknowledging last year that GERS was not a guide to the finances of an independent – rather than devolved – Scotland.

The bulk of the £10bn figure – £7.5bn – is arrived at by treating the Barnett Formula as an annual cash gift from the Treasury, when in fact it’s simply a mechanism for returning about 95% of Scotland’s average payment into the UK.

Our very alertest readers will probably have spotted at this point that the core premise of the report is that the UK is going to remain in the EU.

TJ you say "held back by" I say "financially supported by"

I would agree an Independent Scotland would be internationally focused, same argument for Brexit actually. Get away from being tied to the EU.

I really should look at moving my pension from Standard Life, its obvious if there ever was a "Yes" vote there would be massive transfer charges applied.

Phew WoS - keep it coming!

Standard Life will have moved well before then. Nae worries Jambas - unless the SNP are still offering a 300bp corp tax advantage

eat_the_pudding - Member
I asked this before (which bits will we not pay for) and no-one actually answered. Strange when people seem so confident when just waving their hands.

So defence can piss off, 3bn. And 6.2bn in the other social seems the obvious choice till the books and can be balanced. (Or rather than be that drastic, you just marginially decrease everything by a wee bit, there's way around it. Is it going to be easy on some? no in the short term. long term, well that's purely be down to us to sort by our selves, wouldn't really be any of your business.)

Then we can start making more money, personally as a start I'd legalise all Drugs and cream in the tax revenue(from a uk wide market) and the tourism boost that that would give ye. So would probably make a fair whack there that we can stick back in to other social..

fag packet economics, aye, but happy to get into the nitty gritty of things if you want to supply detailed data? (you canny just put up the Gers figures and say what would you want rid off, as clearly no-one is particularly verse in what makes up those chunks.)

[quote=teamhurtmore ]Phew WoS - keep it coming!

Talks infinitely more sense than you

Aye , it must be the Rev's religious training BB

Please keep feeding us with his pearls of wisdom. No one else could make them up- they're brilliant

so what's your next question, lender of last resort? Well, worst happens, probly rUK and various others. Same as was done with ireland. The UK isn't shy about making a profit on other peoples misfourtune, I doubt rUK would be much different.

No mate - independent currency, independent central bank and independent LoLR. That's what independence means.

A quick fire way to rebalance the economy in one quick move. Brillliant

Then next question - ask yourself how the central bank builds up its reserves.,,

So, how did Ireland manage to get a loan from the UK and various others? How come greece canny stop people from giving it money, even against it's own will.

There's always some charlatan to get a loan from.

But still we are talking last resort apocalyptic scenarios here.

Well reserves is a good question. Many like to point if the deficit Scotland have. But let's tally up the total Debt and reserves and see where we stand with that too. What's scotlands share of the assets?

Sorry Joe you have some many things mixed up there it's impossible to know where to start

May I suggest that you might need to read up on what the LoLR does

If we are going to waste more time on another referendum then we should at least try to step up from la la land to reality as tough as that may be

Still waiting on your reference to those figures that are all over the place.. Presumably as it's so obvious it won't take long. [space reserved for citation]
As for the assertion that GERS is faulty because of X...
GERS is produced by the Scottish Government.. Why doesn't Nic pop down the corridor to the people she employs and ask them to make the figures accurate. If she could do that why hasn't she?

Removing 10Bn of obvious discrepancies would make the Scottish economy look great 🙂 No?

I know I have. I also know youse are only projecting part of the story too.

Eat, as I said come back when youve got some figures we can actually do something with rather than the blocks of the gers figures, and their vagueness. You can't ask people to get specific with generalised figures.

Yes the easy bit. It gets far more complicated....

Start off with a break down on the assets.

Btw what's the point of this anyhow. To prove that an is will have its challenges at the start?

Of course it will, we accept that.

Have you decided what are assets not liabilities this time? That also a good start.

The DO was struggling with that last time

Plus I'd also like to hear of any examples of people's that have split from UK rule and want the UK to rule once again?

Just one example will do?

teamhurtmore - Member
Have you decided what are assets not liabilities this time? That also a good start.

The DO was struggling with that last time

seosamh77
As I said above I'm not arguing that Scotland COULD not be independent.

I'm arguing that based on the best figures available, produced by the SNP government themselves, it would be poorer for it, for a significant amount of time, additional flags notwithstanding.

If The figures added up differently in the way that many of you still hope and dream, then Nic would be shouting it from the rooftops.

But shes not.

From here [url= http://www.itv.com/news/2016-10-14/nicola-sturgeon-scotlands-financial-deficit-no-barrier-to-eu-membership/ ]itv news[/url]

Nicola Sturgeon has denied claims that Scotland's deficit could be a barrier for the country remaining in the EU.

Speaking to ITV News on Friday, the First Minister insisted Scotland's £14.8bn deficit should instead be blamed on the failures of the UK.

She said: "Yes we've got a deficit, most countries across the world have deficits.

"It's a bit rich of politicians who are advocating we stay part of a system that's left us with a deficit to argue that's the best future.

"Do we carry on with the policies that have put us in this position and are threatening to make it worse, or do we take control over our economy and our own hands so that we can work our way out of these situations".

The figure, which accounts for 9.5% of Scotland's GDP, is far higher than the 3% limit EU rules stipulate new members have when they join - and higher than struggling EU member state Greece.

"I don't think people really understand how offensive it is for people in Scotland - an economy that has renewables and life sciences, world leaders in food and drink and tourism - compared to Greece."

Ignore the window dressing and spin about whose fault it is (despite the fact that she now has most of the powers that she would have as an independent country in the EU, and that the UKs overall deficit is tiny by comparison).

Concentrate on the fact that she doesn't say "its complicated" or quote WoS.

Unlike many on here;
She accepts that the deficit is real
She accepts that its worse than Greece.
She argues that pointing that out is rude (Ha!)

It's not "post-truth" in Scotland, its "rude-facts".

But at least she accepts the truth of the financial situation;

Anyone else?

Edit .. We've had Wings and GERS denial .. 20 more points for the first to bring up whisky export tax :O)

the Scottish Government has worse results than the English NHS, and far worse results in Education

Any actual evidence for that ETP?

So how many pages d'ja reckon?

Good old wee nippy talking about timing, right in the of Brexshit, hope TM says FO, now or afterwards or not at all. Alternatively even better if the EU said, STFU and wait.

Or any evidence for this

despite the fact that she now has most of the powers that she would have as an independent country

eat_the_pudding - Member
seosamh77
As I said above I'm not arguing that Scotland COULD not be independent.

I'm arguing that based on the best figures available, produced by the SNP government themselves, it would be poorer for it.

You can try and whittle that down to a balance sheet all you like. But it's not really going to sway me.

Would I prefer to wait until the figures look better? Yes. Will I take the chance if it comes next year? Yes. Fully aware of the figures.

Och aye, Scots are incapable of managing their country's finances. If something goes wrong wey're incapable of sorting it out.

We don't have enough resources.

Oh we do have oil, but that's obviously a bad thing because we'd quickly be as broke as Saudi Arabia or Norway if we didn't have the wise guidance of Westminster to spend it on Trident nukes and HS2 and foreign wars.

Now let's consider a hypothetical case.
Let's say you have a country.
Now who best to run that country?
That country itself, or the bigger country next door?
Hmmm, deep thought...

Yup, maybe France should rule England in that case.

BTW the UK govt has been lying about the oil figures for the last 30+ years, so why should we believe them now?

she now has most of the powers that she would have as an independent country in the EU

She does?

http://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/Education/18642.aspx

This seems to suggest otherwise. Lot's of powers still reserved to Westminster. Maybe you should read up a bit more.

Plus I'd also like to hear of any examples of people's that have split from UK rule and want the UK to rule once again?

Not really relevant in this case as Scotland is part of the UK, it isn't ruled by the UK. That is playing into the hands of the SNP who like to portray Scotland as this helpless oppressed little country under the tyrannical rule of the evil English empire.

And anyway, there are lots of people all over the world who would love British rule back which was far more benevolent than the corrupt tin pot dictators they have now. Trouble is no one ever asks these people.