Duckman that a THM quote? Of course he can't back it up. He doesn't have the knowledge or the experience.
Remember I don't see his posts. If he is being offensive you could do me a favour and report it.
Ah right TJ, I forgot he was a factor in your self imposed break. I don't think he realises you have blocked him 😀
teamhurtmore - MemberYou don't have zero now, thats the whole point. As much as you might complain, some account is taken of the interests of Scotland.
Aracer, seriously, why attempt a serious or should I say grown up debate? Every response so far has been a lie inaccurate. You might as well debate whether a tomato or a plank of wood is a better car. The premises for all the last few pages have been equally as false.Posted 2 hours ago # Report-Post
Remember we are thinking long term about Scotlands future. Too many folk confuse SNP policy now with the future scottish governments position.
20 years on from independence Scotland will IMO look very different politically. Once / if we have independence I am sure we will see a big realignment in Scottish politics. Remember we have PR with an effective threshold of around 6% to get representation.
I would expect the SNP to split. Its a very broad coalition held together by the glue that is the aim of independence. It spans the political spectrum from socialist to conservative. (small C) Labour and tories will also split and realign
I would expect the future make up of Holyrood to be a true socialist Party - the assorted Socialists we have now plus the far left of the SNP and the left of labour, A centre left party consisting of the bulk of lLabour plus the bulk of the SNP, a centre right party ( farming, hunting shooting fishing) consisting of the right of the labour party, the right of the SNP and the left of the tories. Possibly with lib dems. The greens along with some lib dems and even some from the left. finally a fringe far right party consisting of the right of the tories plus UKIP and assorted other nutters.
Once we have independence then we elect a government for an independent Scotland
Edit - I would expect coalitions of the left and centre left alternating with coalitions of the centre left and centre right forming the governments with the Greens often holding the balance of power
Duckman - only self imposed in that it was clear I would be banned for saying what I did.
[quote=tjagain ]Remember we are thinking long term about Scotlands future. Too many folk confuse SNP policy now with the future scottish governments position.
20 years on from independence Scotland will IMO look very different politically.
Of course. You'll have sorted yourselves out with a proper right wing party in charge by then, having kicked out the SNP who got you into the mess in the first place 😉
Once we have independence then we elect a government for [s]an independent Scotland[/s] the central belt
FTFY
teamhurtmore - Member
Our supposedly austerity version is struggling as we can all see
More curiousity; do you advocate, real austerity, or investment to grow the economy? (Speaking on a uk wide basis this time.)
tjagain - Member
Remember we are thinking long term about Scotlands future. Too many folk confuse SNP policy now with the future scottish governments position.
Doubtful, if independence is achieved based on 50%+1. you will still have a unionist/nationalist outlook to the parliament. The former just becomes less openly so. you really need the scottish parliament to reflect what scotland will look like post independence for people to buy it imo. either that or people just won't buy what you are selling. The scottish parliament imo, is a massive indicator of how successful an IS would be, you need upward of 70% of that parliament to be pro-indy and competent. imo.
tjagain - Member
20 years on from independence Scotland will IMO look very different politically. Once / if we have independence I am sure we will see a big realignment in Scottish politics. Remember we have PR with an effective threshold of around 6% to get representation.
I believed this, but the intervening years between the ref and now show you that people are basically just populist and go with who has the most competent image. That's SNP at the moment, but I don't see very many revolutionary changes in the make up.
tjagain - Member
I would expect the SNP to split. Its a very broad coalition held together by the glue that is the aim of independence. It spans the political spectrum from socialist to conservative. (small C) Labour and tories will also split and realign
i actually asked nicola sturgeon that question directly pre indy ref once at a meeting in govanhill, she was adamant, no, I believed her.
tjagain - Member
I would expect the future make up of Holyrood to be a true socialist Party - the assorted Socialists we have now plus the far left of the SNP and the left of labour, A centre left party consisting of the bulk of lLabour plus the bulk of the SNP, a centre right party ( farming, hunting shooting fishing) consisting of the right of the labour party, the right of the SNP and the left of the tories. Possibly with lib dems. The greens along with some lib dems and even some from the left. finally a fringe far right party consisting of the right of the tories plus UKIP and assorted other nutters.
A True socialist party? Lala land stuff that tbh.
tjagain - Member
Once we have independence then we elect a government for an independent Scotland
yip, for good or bad.
tjagain - Member
Edit - I would expect coalitions of the left and centre left alternating with coalitions of the centre left and centre right forming the governments with the Greens often holding the balance of power
i'd think it difficult to predict the left/right split of coalitions, though I do believe they are likely. But look at the current make up, labour? who the he'll knows where they stand, the tories, right, SNP, a mixture of everything to everyone. So I wouldn't discount the possibility of rightist coalitions.
AN independent Scotland’s chances of automatic EU entry got a massive boost yesterday as a big supporter of the move was made a chief Brexit negotiator.
Former Belgian prime minister Guy Verhofstadt, 63, will co-ordinate the European Parliament’s response to the UK’s vote to leave.
He has previously said an independent Scotland should be let into the EU straight away.
Verhofstadt added: “If Scotland decides to leave the UK, to be an independent state, and they decide to be part of the EU, I think there is no big obstacle to do that.”
He said it would be “suicide” for the EU to refuse entry to people who are “sympathetic” to the EU’s aims.
Verhofstadt was also supportive of Scotland’s vote to remain in the EU following June’s referendum.
“It’s wrong that Scotland might be taken out of EU, when it voted to stay. Happy to discuss with Nicola Sturgeon,” he tweeted on June 24 after the result.
Professor Michael Keating of Aberdeen University also said it was good news for Scottish nationalists but warned there would still be “hostility” from other forces within the EU.
He told the Record: “Within Brussels and around the European Parliament there are different attitudes towards Scotland.
“Some, such as the Spanish Government for example, take a very hostile position, some are more sympathetic and some just don’t really understand the complexities of the situation in Scotland.
“Verhofstadt is certainly somebody who takes an interest in Scotland and is more sympathetic, but that does not change the rules of the game.”
From the Glasgow herald. thought some of you might find it interesting
I don't think an IS scotland should enter the EU immediately, (If it's dragged out with rUK.)
seosamh77
I agree the various socialist groups we have now live in la la land and they simply can't get their act together but they have polled up to 10% IIRC and if they could form a group with the left of the SNP and the left of Labour then they could potentially take 20+ % of the vote ( so long as the can resist splintering every few weeks)
Of course the SNP would split up and of course Sturgeon would deny it. The only thing that holds the tartan tories and the city socialists together in the SNP is the aim of independence. Once that glue is gone then a realignment is inevitable.
BTW - I think I owe you an apology for accusing you of lack of knowledge. I think I confused you with someone else. I must remember that reaching different conclusions from the same evidence does not always mean you don't understand but are looking from a different direction ( I still think you are wrong tho 😉 )
Dunno, success is a strange motivator. Re: SNP, we'll wait and see. They'll lose some of their fringe at either end, but not a great deal I'd imagine. They seem to have that american presidential hero worshiping thing down to a T, and people are lapping it up.
Anyhow, back to the socialists. The SSP/Radical independence RISE thing fell flat on it's face last election.- 0.5% on the list (although, admittedly early days, it is just a rebrand of the SSP coupled with a few idealists mind you). The greens wouldn't touch it with a barge poll and even they only managed 6/7% on the list.
So the left vote has around 7-8% at the moment, from the list more or less.
I think the highest it's ever been was around 2003. and I think the various parties got around 13%. Which is essentially their ceiling I think.
The only half viable version is the greens really, imo. So if you want a semblance of leftism, as well putting your efforts into that.
Ultimately though, I'd think that 2003 result is probably their limit. So the left is limited to somewhat of an idea factory, hoping that some of their policies are adopted. (Not a bad attutide imo, as any form of power, bar proping someone up, is out of the question. Which turned out well for the Lib dems, as a warning to everyone.)
Ah right TJ, I forgot he was a factor in your self imposed break.
If by self imposed you mean permenant lifetime ban, but not for obsessive arguing with THM, but his reaction to the ban for obsessive arguing. Why do you think he's back as tjagain instead of TandemJeremy.
Of course the SNP would split up and of course Sturgeon would deny it. The only thing that holds the tartan tories and the city socialists together in the SNP is the aim of independence. Once that glue is gone then a realignment is inevitable.
I wouldn't count on it TJ, they are by far the best organised political party in Scotland (probably the UK). I don't think in the event of independence the SNP splitting up is a certainty, or even probable.
I think with Sturgeon as a leader they are leaving the tartan tory stuff well behind. They are firmly entrenched in the center ground - while admittedly espousing more left wing ideals than they actually put into practice.
Still with Tank Commander Ruth as your strongest opposition its difficult to see the SNP going anywhere.
The SNP might not split up, but enough members would leave to join other parties (or new ones) that they may as well have had.
More curiousity; do you advocate, real austerity, or investment to grow the economy? (Speaking on a uk wide basis this time.)
sorry Joe, been at the theatre all afternoon and then dinner so wasnt able to respond. Went to see the political play 😉 This House = absolutely brilliant and quite appropriate for today
You question suggests an either or that does not exist, so difficult to answer. Ditto given the current level of reporting its difficult to determine what real austerity means. So at the moment the adjective is applied to a government that continues to spend more than it earns (and more than left wing governments in the rest of Europe) - which is a bit confusing.
But lets ignore the silly reporting that exists right now and assume that by austerity that you might mean running a budget surplus - do you remember them?
Ok, and assuming that TJ's comments earlier that i have neither knowledge and experience is just another in a long list of lies, let me answer.
I approach your question from two theoretical perspectives - Keynesian economics and the much more modern Modern Money Theory. I will spare you the detail (unless you are interested) by my conclusion is that it is complete folly for the government to be attempting to run a budget surplus right now. The fact that it is part of the debate merely indicates that those in power (1) do not understand the nature of the recent recession and (2) do not understand MMT. We should not even be debating the issue, but we are led by people who are ignorant of current macro economic thinking.
So I am in favour of investing in the economy and I am in favour of the government running a budget deficit right now. Why? Because the government needs to counter-balance the behaviour of the household and corporate sector - who are both deleveraging at the moment. But I am now getting into detail which for this forum is unnecessary.
p.s. love the fact that the very same people who routinely abuse Jambas for posting falsifiable opinions are so sensitive when their same actions are pointed out!! Breathtaking hypocricy.
Cheers, interesting. I shall google modern money theory when I'm skivving the morra! 😆
ps and the play!
[quote=teamhurtmore ]it is complete folly for the government to be attempting to run a budget surplus right now. The fact that it is part of the debate merely indicates that those in power (1) do not understand the nature of the recent recession and (2) do not understand MMT. We should not even be debating the issue, but we are led by people who are ignorant of current macro economic thinking.
I thought the normal assumption was that they do understand all that (at least the civil servants, if not the COE, though Osborne clearly wasn't totally stupid and I don't think Hammond is either)? The suggestion of austerity is surely just the way they're spinning it (and those passing on the news are too ignorant) and they have no intention of running a budget surplus.
Pleasure. You may find that MMT and Keynesian economics get confused. This is a shame.
Google the late Wynne Godley, Martin Wolfe in the FT and my old colleague Richard Koo in Japan. A simple text is Wray Randall's primer available on kindle. But it's a bit technical. But health warning none of the above have either knowledge nor experience so you might want to listen to others who know so much better
The play was awesome, but currently on tour in Chichester so miles away from you!!! Had a great chat with some of the cast who interested in how mini THM (currently down from Scotland) viewed the political balance in the play!! It's going back to London but not sure about Scotland. Shame, it's brilliant
Interesting Aracer. IME they do not understand and this is evidence by the over reliance on QE.
IME Osborne did a good job by accident not design. To his credit he realised that the initial priority was to address market concerns about the level of UK debt at the height of the crisis. The market swallowed his rhetoric which was a good thing. At the same time, he abandoned austerity quite quickly - the question is whether this was by accident or design. The bottom line is that the UK had been running one of the most expansionary fiscal policies among the developed world which is why our recovery has been relatively strong. Of course, none of this forms part of the current narrative that still equates the Tories with austerity which is patently absurd.
Personally, I think Osborne achieved this more by accident than by design. Either way it doesn't matter, The UK abandoned austerity a long time ago. Indeed it is doubtful whether it existed at all.
FWIW, my old colleague believes that they do not understand thins. But what does he know, like me, he is neither knowledgeable nor experienced!
[quote=teamhurtmore ]Personally, I think Osborne achieved this more by accident than by design.
To be fair, if a COE can manage not to completely **** things up by the things they did mean to do then they've probably done better than average.
True - but as I said this IME was by accident not by design
But this is why debates on here are so amusing, We have the lefties going on about austerity in the UK supported by eh angry nats and the likes of Jambas talking about free spending socialists in France. In realty they are both wrong. UK policy has been more expansionary that the French version - but like analysis of the SNP the gulf between the rhetoric and reality is massive.
IIRC a few folk on this thread were berating Sturgeon for not sorting out the economy of scotland. this piece shows why she cannot. Ok a very partial source and rather lighthearted but it shows the limitations Holyrood has in taking any meaningful action on the economy.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/exploring-the-options/
and this one shows why scotland needs different immigration policies to those we have now
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2016/10/highland-clearances/
Just when you think it cant get worse - the return of WoS 😯
Amusing that a lot of stuff in that WoS article is the type of thing people would associate with Tory policies i .e. Reduce vat, reduce fuel duty, reduce corporation tax and increased levels of immigration.
Is that what the Glasgow working class SNP cost really wants? I doubt it.
Big state, but low taxes makes iScotland sound like a mini USA.
It just an example that shows the limitation of the powers that the scottish government actually have to do anything much about the economy.
Tory policy to reduce VAT and increase immigration? shurly shome mishtake
Amusing that a lot of stuff in that WoS article is the type of thing people would associate with 80 Kingsway East, Dundee
FTFY
Amusing that a lot of THM stuff is associated with Pete Burns
Cmon gordi, you can do better than that
WoS, what an unpleasant fellow he is.
I heard Alex Salmond on the radio the other day, suggesting that Scotland's ANNUAL deficit could be outweighed with a bunch of THROUGH LIFE costs for Trident etc, making a bigger number. Subterfuge worthy of a Brexiteer!
Must admit, TJ, WoS? You're begging for ridicule there.
On a serious point, if you've been living in the UK for 8 years, can you not just apply for naturalisation and get it? I don't know, just thought that was the case.
WoS; the Ying to THM's Yang.
Well put duckie, garbage to be ridiculed (WoS) versus facts (THM). Take your pick 😉
After Joe's post, you couldn't have highlighted the contrast better!
TJ, I learned that on here it's best to use the facts and original sources from a WoS article instead of the article itself - that forces people to argue against the facts themselves instead of going off on a "WoS is literally Hitler" rant 😉
That's a good suggesrion Ben albeit a stiff challenge that you are setting yourself
Arguing about the economy of independence is a diversion.
It is an issue of control. Self-determination.
At the moment what we want in Scotland is swamped by the demands of the larger party in the Union.
There is no coherent argument against independence, just the usual sneering colonial rantings that have been trundled out for just about every country that has gained its freedom from the Empire.
Some have done well, some have done poorly, all have faced major issues, but none have wanted to come crawling back.
Arguing about the economy of independence is a diversion.
It is an issue of control. Self-determination.
Yes agreed. It's the objective at-any-cost
At the moment what we want in Scotland is swamped by the demands of the [s]larger party in the[/s] [b]European[/b] Union.
FIFY
There is no coherent argument against independence
There are many and we have made them you and the 45% minority just don't agree or more likely just revert to the first point that economic arguments just don't matter
It is an issue of control. Self-determination.
Racist!
jambalaya - Member
'It is an issue of control. Self-determination."
Yes agreed. It's the objective at-any-cost
And what is wrong with that?
Nothing epic. I have said that all along. If that's the basis of a voters decsion that is their right.
Arguing about the economy of independence is a diversion.
It is an issue of control. Self-determination.
Yeah, because having the decisions made in Holyrood rather than Westminster makes a real difference to people's lives, whilst having a job doesn't.
Yeah, because having the decisions made in Holyrood rather than Westminster makes a real difference to people's lives, whilst having a job doesn't.
There's no causal connecction between decisions being made in holyrood and unemployment aracer Nor Westminster come to that. Is there some special reason that Scots should not be able to take the decisions necessary for Scotland's economy to grow? (edit)
If Scotland was independent today, would we be clamouring to join the UK? Especially a post-Brexit UK? Is Ireland desperate to rejoin?
That's the basic question really. Scotland staying in the UK is really about inertia and not wanting change, it's not really a logical choice about what's best for Scotland and the people living here.
There's no causal connecction between decisions being made in holyrood and unemployment aracer
Why does the SNP Takk about reducing youth unemployment by 40% by 2021? Are they making things up?
Is there some special reason that Scots should not be able to take the decisions necessary for Scotland's economy to grow? (edit)
When was the outlawed? Shall we close down Holyrood as a waste of time and money?
That's the basic question really. Scotland staying in the UK is really about inertia and not wanting change, it's not really a logical choice about what's best for Scotland and the people living here.
There's rather a lot of,people who disagree with you Ben. You had a chance to present an alternative and what did you get? The book of dreams. You were badly let down weren't you.
No more referendum for Scotland I am afraid for at least this generation.
Sturgeon/SNP can keep stirring up the people emotion with this One agenda to keep their party going but after a while it will be rather dull and boring.
Let see how long Sturgeon/SNP can keep banging on the same issue with EU bureaucratic backing.
