Getting inflation under control isnt enough, that still leaves prices way above where they were 2 years ago so unless inflation goes negative (extremely unlikely) or wages catch up quickly (also extremely unlikely) people will still be financially squeezed come the election. People don't vote based on an inflation KPI they vote on how wealthy they feel.
Inflation may be down but it still means prices are rising, not coming down which is what people need. Trouble is large wage growth will stoke more inflation and negative inflation is generally seen as a bad thing (I don't know why) by the financiers so will be avoided.
I’d come to the conclusion that the majority of people in this country now have such low expectations of our politicians, with some considerable justification, that they can do pretty much anything and people will still vote for them.
And that’s true, up to a point
But Truss committed the cardinal sin. Her ‘experiment’ resulted in middle class peoples mortgage payments going up considerably and their pensions taking a big hit
You do that in this country and you’re finished!
Trouble is large wage growth will stoke more inflation
I don't think that is true, it is just political dogma spouted for the past 50 years to allow money to flow up from the majority to the few.
Well apparently Sunak's new "stop the boats" policy, will have to ignore the ECHR to be successful.
They really are a bunch of horrible ****s!
Will we get to see what our new human rights will be or will they just make them up afterwards?
Human rights? I believe Dominic Raab will sort all that out. Nothing to worry about there then.
Their latest ‘stop the boats’ nonsense just confirm what we already know. Their culture war BS is literally all they’ve got left
But appealing to their base of racist pensioners won’t win them a general election after all that they’ve done since Boris got the keys to number ten
the tail is wagging the dog.
MAIL ON SUNDAY COMMENT: Rishi Sunak must deliver on his fight to 'Stop the Boats' to beat Keir Starmer
How will they go about leaving the ECHR. Is it simply Sunak saying he’s leaving or is there votes and legal stuff? Will it take years or days?
After the next election can Starmer simply rejoin and more importantly would he?
If that **** wants my vote I need to know what I’m voting for.
It’s just more dog-whistle stuff to throw to their base. Like Rwanda and wave machines in the Channel. It won’t actually happen
One thing we know is that this government don’t actually DO anything. It’ll all be forgotten about by next week and we’ll be on to the next piece of reactionary horse-shit
I do hope so Binners.
If wages growth causes in inflation why don't bankers' bonuses or the £30bn bung to Serco? The 'growth' mantra on its own for solving the country's problems is meaningless. Addis Abbaba, for example, has had massive growth.....and starvation wages.
Addis Abbaba, for example, has had massive growth…..and starvation wages.
That's literally their dream!
....setting out his political/societal views in the 1960s, which aligned with the MacMillan governments policies.
He said he hasn’t changed his views, but is now regarded as far left.
I’m sure his argument can be picked apart.....
I am not sure it can be. Harold Macmillan was without doubt a social democrat - he was totally committed to a mixed economy and universal welfare state.
His political views on many issues could not have been more at odds with Margret Thatcher's. Whilst she despised council housing Macmillan was nicknamed the 'council house builder'.
Thatcher privatised everything that she could, Macmillan called it 'selling off the family silver'.
Thatcher hated trade unions, Macmillan believed in cooperating with them - he was horrified by Thatcher treating British miners as "the enemy within". He made this comment during the miner's strike: “This terrible strike, by the best men in the world, who beat the Kaiser and Hitler's armies and never gave in”
WW2 provided a huge boost for socialism and the postwar consensus of embracing social democracy was globally widespread. It resulted in leading US Republican Richard Nixon declaring "We are all Keynesians now"
In contrast many years later Peter Mandelson declared "we are all Thatcherites now".
Jeremy Corbyn's 2019 general election manifesto would definitely have been considered right-wing 45 years ago.
If the "country is full up" should we not demonise people who have more than 2 kids and award some sort of badge to people like me and Mrs Zip who have none?
The country is simultaneously full up while also unable to fill the hundreds of thousands of job vacancies
That’s the corner this lot have painted themselves into
Culture war is really all they have left. Jenkinson's (Workington) latest tirade is against local police stickering up a police car.
This is same MP who decided locals were swapping food vouchers for drugs (with no evidence).
It'll be 'interesting' to see how well it plays in the red wall.
Of course big wage increases will stoke inflation, the increase in wages needs to come from somewhere, it'll be passed onto consumers in the form of price increases for goods and services (or taxes for public services). You could argue it should come at the expense of profits and shareholder dividends but it wont so save your breath. In the grand scheme of things bankers bonuses, as abhorrent as they are, are a small part of the economy so don't directly have much of an impact.
I see they have annouced health checks for everyone to counter Binners point of there not being enough economically active people in our society after all the hard working European migrants who actively contributed to our country went home due to Brexit. It's just shone a light on the ever increasing social problems we have. I haven't read the details of the health check policy (assuming there are any which would make a change) but I can't see the people who most need to address their lifestyle and health issues either goingvto the appointments or acting on the advice. Of course this is assuming we have the capacity to deliver these health checks which I doubt.
It’ll be ‘interesting’ to see how well it plays in the red wall.
The present polling in the individual constituencies that make up the 'Red Wall' is showing that every single one of them will be going back to labour at the next election. I've said it many times but this wasn't some seismic shift in 2019. These new Tory lot are sat on paper-thin majorities. My own utter shyster of a (Boris, then Liz Truss supporting) Tory MP has a majority of 100. He knows he's out come the next election! He's busy lining his pockets with dodgy funding.
The '30p' Lee Anderson hang-em-and-flog-em narrative is just the death rattle of a load of one-term MP's who know they're done. The 'Small Boats nonsense may play well to the racist pensioners of Eastbourne, but the new intake of Northern Tory MPs drank a bit too much of the Boris Kool Aid with his bullshit about this being a huge shift that he had delivered. There aren't any small boats landing in Bolton.
Everyone now knows that 'levelling up' was bollocks and they never had the slightest intention of doing anything to improve anything in 'The North' (there be dragons!). When it comes, people will vote with that in mind.
To quote Roger Daltry... "we won't be fooled again"
Of course this is assuming we have the capacity to deliver these health checks which I doubt.
We know the answer to that. The NHS is on its knees. There is no capacity to deliver any of this.
Like I said: this lot don't actually DO anything. Its all just soundbites for consumption by the gullible, reactionary, Daily Mail reading 'Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells' for the next few days. I'm betting we never hear anything about it ever again.
Heard anything about Rwanda recently?
Of course big wage increases will stoke inflation
Except that currently the UK isn't experiencing big wage increases and yet inflation is still very high.
In fact wages are only rising at about half the rate of inflation. It is obvious that wage increases are not the primary cause of current UK inflation - energy prices are.
Inflation is associated with growth and the economy overheating, that is not currently happening.
Inflation is “a steady and sustained rise in prices”. But energy price increases are not "steady" and "sustainable". It is not actually an inflationary process - the increases will, and have, stopped.
Which is why it is forecast that by the end of the year UK inflation will fall to about 2%, which is exactly what the government's inflation target is.
Keeping wage increases to half the rate of inflation is not necessary to control inflation, inflation will fall anyway, even if wages increase at the rate of inflation.
Obviously it provides an excellent opportunity to slash wages in real terms though.
https://www.ft.com/content/358217ce-c165-48c1-9b1b-a4c73320a92a
The ’30p’ Lee Anderson hang-em-and-flog-em narrative is just the death rattle of a load of one-term MP’s who know they’re done. The ‘Small Boats nonsense may play well to the racist pensioners of Eastbourne, but the new intake of Northern Tory MPs drank a bit too much of the Boris Kool Aid with his bullshit about this being a huge shift that he had delivered. There aren’t any small boats landing in Bolton.
Blimey, you have changed your tune binners. About a year ago you were claiming, with very profound conviction, that "red wall" voters were all inherently racist.
In fact you gave your local pub, the Rose and Crown in Ramsbottom, as an example. According to you the clientele, to a man, were misogynist homophobic racists.
Now it turns out that it is among all the posh old gits who live in Eastbourne where you find the racist voters.
So when did "red wall" voters have this Damascene conversion?
I got them all reading the Guardian comrade.
The Rose and Racist have now replaced the pork scratchings with these
I hope you apologised for calling them all bigots.
Obviously it provides an excellent opportunity to slash wages in real terms though.
When it comes to the public sector, that’s an opportunity this government is grabbing with both hands. We know who’s paying for ____ … the working man and woman.
Trouble is large wage growth will stoke more inflation
According to right-wingers it's only the low waged that drives inflation. Never the top money. PMSL if it wasn't so painful.
High wealth individuals? They're the ones sucking up all the resources which is driving this type of inflation. Certainly initially - they use more energy, goods and raw materials.
Currently high interest rates are stoking inflation too for the people that benefit from assets / savings etc.
Interest rate hikes are a tax on borrowers to move money to savers. Period.
Wages at the lower end are so suppressed that an increase is needed to grow the real economy.
The Tories are self defeating on this as are Labour, they both want growth but no one wants to put their hands in their pockets to kick start the growth. And it's the only way it will come.
We are ending up with a even more lop-sided economy where the bottom end are constantly punished for the top end's actions.
Finally with the likes of NHS which is mostly free at the point of use - there can be no wage price spiral because you don't pay for the wages. The government does - irrespective of taxation.
In fact wages are only rising at about half the rate of inflation. It is obvious that wage increases are not the primary cause of current UK inflation – energy prices are.
Inflation is associated with growth and the economy overheating, that is not currently happening.
So much this.
Most inflation can be traced back to a lack of energy or having to import energy etc.
Inflation is complex and CPI doesn't necessarily tell the whole picture just like GDP too.
Monetarists constantly harp on about the only cause of inflation is money - it's total and utter horse shit.
MMT economists have always said a couple of years of inflation is coming - but don't raise interest rates which will drive more inflation; wealthy get more money to spend on limited resources.
Guess what's happening - FED keep lifting interest rates and inflation is starting to tick up. Although the USA's economy is doing well in certain areas.
On topic - I don't think the Tories are finished personally.
Start banning boats and what not - I can see Sunak coming out of this okay with the voters.
So many shifting sands these days.
Let's keep em eye on those polls - still a long way to go time-wise.
Also plenty of potential for black-swan events and terrible economic data to create havoc for the establishment.
The Labour leads is large but I think it's weak. Happy to be wrong on this guess though.
Whatever the CON-servatives say it just seems to be a ruse, to remove more of our rights. It's not like its under control, since they've been in power. My family is part refugee, so I hope it all fail. Besides we need immigration, to back fill the death rate, else we will turn in Japan...
JeZ
On topic – I don’t think the Tories are finished personally.
this. Most people have short memories and Jan 2025 is a long way off yet.
Labours lead is built on sand currently, Starmer had not got his messaging anywhere near what it needs to be.
I don’t think the Tories are finished personally.
I don't believe in making predictions based on crystal ball gazing but it is always worth considering possibilities. And I actually believe there is a possibility of a reconfiguration of British politics not seen in a hundred years.
The huge Labour lead is undoubtedly soft, the proof is that it came extremely rapidly out of almost nowhere, in a period of a month it at least trebled. But it is sustained, it clearly isn't a temporary blip.
As far as I am aware this huge and sustained Labour lead is unprecedented, it certainly suggests that something spectacular has occurred in UK politics.
Whether this can translate into permanent change imo depends on among other things how large the Labour majority is after the next general election. Some respected pollsters are suggesting the possibility of a Labour majority of over 300 and a rump of Tory MPs of well under 100.
Whilst without doubting the pollster's margin of error I consider that to be very unlikely, but the closer we get to that scenario the closer we get to civil war breaking out within the Labour Party.
I think it is realistic to believe that the Labour Party could split into two separate parties, certainly many on both the right and left wings of the party would like to see that happen. In fact the right-wing in the Labour Party is currently actively encouraging those on the left to leave.
If this were to happen I could see many Tory politicians being attracted to a right-wing led Labour Party free of its left-wing. The old Labour Party could in fact take the role of a new conservative party whilst the new party could provide a social-democratic alternative.
The old Tory Party could eventually become the same irrelevance that the once mighty Liberal Party became.
The UK Conservative Party might well be the oldest political party in the world but it doesn't mean that it is immortal, only that Tories have a tendency to know how to adapt.
Start banning boats and what not – I can see Sunak coming out of this okay with the voters.
It is precisely because they are so desperately bankrupt of ideas, as the small boat announcement betrays, that convinces me that the Tories have lost the plot and stand no chance of recovery before the next general election.
No one believes that Albanians should simply circumvent normal immigration processes by arriving in unseaworthy vessels but it is hardly a general election winning policy to target them. And whilst demonising genuine asylum seekers who are fleeing wars and upheavals which we directly helped to create might have had some success again it is hardly a general election winning policy.
People are concerned about energy prices, affordable transport, decent wages, and the cost of living crises. If you can't address that then using the plight of desperate people isn't going to help you.
If immigration is ever an issue which is perceived to affect the lives of ordinary voters it is a sudden and huge influx of young immigrants. Who often by definition are happy to accept lower wages and conditions, and who place further strain on existing educational and healthcare provisions, not a handful, relatively speaking, of desperate people risking their lives in leaky boats.
Edit: To be clear the Labour Party's criticism of the Tories's handling of the "small boat crisis" is that the Tories are incompetent in dealing with it.
Starmer claims that as PM he would deal with it much better. So if that is an issue which is a general election clincher for you voting Labour might be the solution:
Jan 2025 is a long way off yet.
There is no way they'll wait til then as it'll look like a defeated govt hanging on as long as it can. At the very latest it will be next autumn, but more likely next spring. The campaign will start a long time before that though, probably this autumn so that only really gives them 6 months to do anything.
Start banning boats and what not – I can see Sunak coming out of this okay with the voters.
Its an unworkable policy & they know it
Best they can hope for is that it becomes bogged down in legal disputes & they can frame it as a trick by the dastardly lefty lawyers & hope for some culture war kudos
That schtick has worn incredibly thin, however.
Cost of living crisis is of far greater concern to most, while that dominates the Tories will continue to lag in the polls.
My train fares went up 6% today, thats another kick in the nuts, April sees everyone phone, broadband, etc contracts rise by RPI(14%?) + 4% or similar !!, council tax up 5%, fuel + energy bill still rising hugely- in spite of cap.....
All of that may have improved in 18mths time, in which case Labour may well be under threat in the polls, so much can happen, but worryingly for Tories, Brexit will still be dragging on economy, housing market still excludes millions, NHS & social care system is still broken & there is radio silence on a fix for that...
Fed/inflation stuff for perusal. Similar can be applied here.
https://twitter.com/tyillc/status/1632459616570290180?s=20
https://twitter.com/StephanieKelton/status/1632758441264414722?s=20
Do the Tories really want to get the refugee 'crisis' under control?
Is the small boat situation actually hurting the Tories at the polls? The DM and the like attack the refugees for being refugees rather than hold the Tory party accountable for failed policy and management.
Are the refugees placed in overcrowded hotels in Brexity leaning towns for a purpose? (namely to encourage the kind of yobbish protests we have seen recently).
Of course the plan will be unworkable. It's meant to be unworkable. The new Deputy Chairmon of the Conservative party told as as much when he explained that in the absence of Boris, Brexit and Corbyn, (the BBC as he put it) all the Tories have left to fight the next election with is the culture wars, (his words, not mine).
Do the Tories really want to get the refugee ‘crisis’ under control?
This only dawned on me this morning - the Tories need migrants as the permanent distraction from all their other failings.
The fact that after 13 years nothing has been "fixed" passes by the DM reading core voter. The problem used to the EU, now its migrants, with ever more crazy plans and rhetoric.
In 6 months time they'll announce a plan to have the SBS take them all out silently mid crossing as its what Churchill would have wanted.
Its sickening to see how the government are using migrants to gaslight us all
The irony is that they were warned their Brexit would make things worse
my mum was complaining about migrants being housed in local hotels over the phone the other day, I had to really bite my tongue not to point out that in voting for brexit she helped make it happen
The migrant issue is a great way for the government to gaslight the country, but inflaming those tensions to score culture war points is damaging to the country & potentially incites violence & emboldens the far right
potentially incites violence & emboldens the far right
There's no "potentially" about it... the Home Secretary is writing the banners for far right protestors.
Home Secretary Suella Braverman said the bill would push "the boundaries of international law" without breaking it
yeah right, if you need to say it then it's a lie.
In 6 months time they’ll announce a plan to have the SBS take them all out silently mid crossing as its what Churchill would have wanted.
didn't they try that with the navy, who told them to poke it as the SOLAS convention trumps bullshit tory propaganda.
my mum was complaining about migrants being housed in local hotels over the phone the other day, I had to really bite my tongue not to point out that in voting for brexit she helped make it happen
Why did you bite your tongue?
I still marvel at the fact that this casual inhumanity and dehumanising of ‘others’ is predominantly being driven by the children of immigrants 😳
Its sickening to see how the government are using migrants to gaslight us all
my mum was complaining about migrants being housed in local hotels over the phone the other day, I had to really bite my tongue not to point out that in voting for brexit she helped make it happen
You think that governments in EU member states don't demonise desperate immigrants and asylum seekers in leaky boats for cheap political gain?
Are you for real?
With respect your mother obviously needs some education concerning the plight of desperate people, but whilst you are helping her understand the truth you could also explain to her why the EU allows this to regularly occur:
Children among 59 people killed in boat wreck off Italy’s coast
More than 100,000 refugees arrived in Italy by boat in 2022. The rightwing government of the prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, which came to power in October, imposed tough measures against sea rescue charities, including fining them up to €50,000 (£44,000) if they flout a requirement to request a port and sail to it immediately after undertaking one rescue instead of remaining at sea to rescue people from other boats in difficulty.
Rescues in recent months have resulted in ships being granted ports in central and northern Italy, forcing them to make longer journeys and therefore reducing their time at sea saving lives. Charities had warned that the measure would lead to thousands of deaths.
Italy being an EU member state has not hampered its Brothers of Italy neo-fascist Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni from pursuing her anti-refugee/asylum seeker agenda one iota.
I have no idea why you think people applying for asylum in the UK are being housed in hotels local to your mum is the result of the UK leaving the EU (where were they housed before?), but I do know that the most right-wing Prime Minister in Italy since the end of World War Two said that Italy should "repatriate migrants back to their countries and then sink the boats that rescued them”.
It makes Priti Patel and Suella Braverman almost sound like soft liberal snowflakes.
Are you for real?
Are you just making stuff up?
No claims were made about the governments of other countries and their policies towards asylum seekers and immigrants, only that voting for Brexit has made things worse here (presumably just a reference to the removal of and lack of replacement of agreements we had with neighbouring countries that were connected to our membership of the EU .. but I'd go further... the success of the "control our borders" wins of Brexit and subsequent elections has shown that "close the doors" policies can deliver votes and power in the UK).
No I have copied and pasted what someone has posted.
Edit: Oh I see that you have done your usual sly unannounced editing Kelvin.
Listen mate I can't be arsed discussing this with you. There are very few things that wind me up on here but racism when accompanied with hypocrisy is one of them so probably best to leave it. I prefer good humoured debates 💡
Don't try and put words into someone else's mouth... and then call them out on it then.
I mean... are you for real?!?
