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Nice headline. Read up on how it is actually progressing.
Just a start as they will more to come.
I don’t think anyone’s going to be envious of our position.
Who knows how it will turn out for the UK, but I'm currently reading Yanis Varoufakis' "Adults in the Room" and I get the feeling that what Brexit does to the UK economy *might* be nowhere near as bad as what the Euro is doing to the economies of some other EU countries.
The Euro provides Germany with an artificially weak currency so it can export without the inevitable consequence of their currency getting too strong and slowing exports. For places like Greece and Spain the Euro is actually too strong and they're being crippled.
If you've recently had near 30pc ( https://tinyurl.com/y4ofxvgb) unemployment literally because of the EU, and you see the UK surviving outside the EU then leaving might be tempting.
The UK has been living under the threat of Brexit for 3 years now and our unemployment is sitting at 3.8pc. Even an economy damaged by the threat of Brexit is enviable to some EU countries.
...all largely irrelevant to my original point. I'm agreeing the UK will inevitably drift back into the EU. That's the key point. Whether the EU changes as a result of the UK leaving is a side issue. It certainly doesn't appear to be changing as a result. Voters all over Europe voted against Federalism a couple of months back and hard core Federalists were appointed to key roles.
not that any country is going to look to [...] give up EU membership without moving into an EEA orbit akin to the EFTA countries.
I *think* the only motivation to leave would be to escape the Euro car crash, so yeah, I agree.
an EU with fewer countries could more easily become more rather than less integrated
Agree. One anti-federalist country leaving could assist in that. Having said there was strong anti-Federalist opinion expressed throughout the EU in the elections. We'll have to wait and see.
FWIW I think more hardcore EU integration would be a brake on the drift back in that we're talking about here. Maybe that's the plan. Rather than hope it improves maybe "they" are hoping it will degenerate to the point where it's totally unpalatable.
Why do you persist with this bollocks? You know perfectly well that the Cameron government was committed to taking us out of the EU in the event of a Leave vote, as were the May and now Johnson governments.
And where is he now?
It is, of course, well documented that no politician in the history of UK "democracy" ever went back on a manifesto pledge or promise.
it’s worth repeating that the courts have judged that, due to the Leave campaign being a such bunch of shysters (I’m paraphrasing), if the referendum had been binding, the result would have been overturned.
The result would have been voided if it had been a binding referendum.
I don't believe that's the case, actually. It was said that because it was advisory it couldn't be held to the same scrutiny as a binding vote, but there was no speculation as to what the outcome might have been if it had been binding.
I’m pretty sure that a proportion of those who voted leave, voted for precisely no deal.
I don't believe that's the case either, if for no other reason that "no deal" wasn't even mentioned until well after the vote. The leave campaigns were very much about how awesome everything it was going to be when the rest of the world capitulated to everything we demanded. It was May who coined "no deal is better than a bad deal" whilst she was in power, I could be wrong don't recall it being mentioned at all before that point.
OutOfBreath - you're confusing the EU with the Euro - the Euro is a bad idea and we were right not to join it. All this stuff about creeping federalisation is false because everyone has to agree or it doesn't happen, which is an argument for us staying and saying no to the stuff we don't want. The deal we have with the EU is as good as it could ever be so the reason we only have 3.6% unemployment is because we are still in the EU on our good deal, if we crash out the number will get worse.
They have won
If those trying to oppose the Leave.EU Vote Leave team are only prepared to follow pesky conventions and rules, then yes.
The deal we have with the EU is as good as it could ever be so the reason we only have 3.6% unemployment is because we are still in the EU on our good deal, if we crash out the number will get worse.
You also have to question how you define 'unemployed'
Since the advent on universal credit and zero hours contracts, if you have worked a mere 1 hour over a two week period then you are classed as 'employed', so the present UK unemployment figures are, to use the technical term, a crock of shit
Since the advent on universal credit and zero hours contracts, if you have worked a mere 1 hour over a two week period then you are classed as ’employed’, so the present UK unemployment figures are, to use the technical term, a crock of shit
And how many people are working just a few hours a week and being counted as employed?
(Clue - a very small amount making pretty much no difference to the overall figures)
There’s a difference between respecting brexit and respecting the mechanism that instigated it. All elections are subject to lies, misinformation and external influences. Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t have them though or respect the results of them, because the alternative is not having them, and that is a much more scary and dangerous thing than any single policy or government which results from them
Wrong.
In a functioning democracy, plebiscites and those campaigning in them are held to a higher degree of accountability due to the one off binary choice that is given.
Politicians can be held to account for lying or making gains from others lies after an election, you can do no such thing with a referendum. Without strong legislation governing factuality, akin to marketing laws - and funding, you get deficits of democracy. The Swiss know how to run a referendum, we do not.
As I’ve said before, you are consistently wrong about everything. Which statistically speaking is quite something.
In a functioning democracy
Who said we had a functioning demoracy? It's the very opposite, but still better than no democracy.
Who said we had a functioning demoracy? It’s the very opposite, but still better than no democracy.
Misdirection.
Answer the specific points, please.
OutOfBreath – you’re confusing the EU with the Euro
No I'm not.
You also have to question how you define ‘unemployed’
Since the advent on universal credit and zero hours contracts, if you have worked a mere 1 hour over a two week period then you are classed as ’employed’, so the present UK unemployment figures are, to use the technical term, a crock of shit
Agree. Plus people who are "self employed" and don't really wan't to be. However, the countries I was comparing with will have needed to adopt 0 hours contracts when the Working Time Directive came in just like the UK did so the numbers I'm comparing ought to be comparable, even if they grossly understate unemployment. If you think they're not comparable, maybe you could provide some comparable numbers? (Plus if we're having to consistently import a Labour force from the EU by the tens of thousands I can't see how our employment can possible to be anything other than negative but that's another debate!)
if we’re having to consistently import a Labour force from the EU by the tens of thousands I can’t see how our employment can possible to be anything other than negative
Because different jobs require different people. Assuming you can fill all available positions from a pool (of whatever size) of unemployed or underemployed workers ignores this basic fact.
Yes - well paid jobs are pretty specialised these days, and poorly paid ones don't pay enough for people to be able to move around the country to do them and aren't worth leaving your support network for.
Because different jobs require different people.
but that’s another debate!
And how many people are working just a few hours a week and being counted as employed?
(Clue – a very small amount making pretty much no difference to the overall figures)
They are complemented by estimates from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), a survey of households, presenting the number of people who report that they are on a “zero-hours contract” in their main job. This report includes the latest figures from the LFS for October to December 2017, first published in February 2018, as well as new estimates from the survey of businesses for November 2017.
The results from the November 2017 survey of businesses indicated that there were 1.8 million contracts that did not guarantee a minimum number of hours.
Yup more than 1.5 million people. Barely worth talking about.
Can we please stop letting people get away with saying that those of us in favour of a re-think are trying to thwart the referendum result?
I'm absolutely hard-core remain to the bone (in fact would love to see full-on federal integration across Europe. Hell, WorldGov would be nice...) but I wouldn't be campaigning against the current moves if the promises made by the Leave campaigns were being delivered. I'd rather stay a full member, but if the promised better deal than membership, with no costs and continued SM membership were forthcoming, then I'd shrug my shoulders and get on with life.
Those of us campaigning against this should be presenting ourselves as demanding that the promises made in the campaign are delivered, in full. In other words, we're supporting the original result, not campaigning against it. Of course, if that proves impossible* then it should go back to the Public with the realistic options on the ballot paper.
Sadly, I suspect that even with 'economic Armageddon' vs 'as you were' there'd still be a huge proportion of the public who'd press the self-destruct button.
* "If"! Ha, bloody ha! 🙁
but if the promised better deal than membership
Thing is that if the guy representing me (Macron) agrees to that I'm not going to be happy. The deal can never be better than membership because that would be unacceptable to the people voting for 27 heads of state.
I'm very much in favour of remain but if Britain wishes to leave then I want to be absolutely certain it will not give the country an unfair advantage. If Brexit is to happen then no deal means Europe can make sure Britain gains no unfair advantage.
What was that a couple of pages back about the EU stepping in?
The deal can never be better than membership
... which is presumably exactly what parliament realised when May's deal was put in front of them.
Those of us campaigning against this should be presenting ourselves as demanding that the promises made in the campaign are delivered, in full.
Labour tried that approach at first.
They couldn’t stop the goalposts shifting.
Edit - well, actually, they tried to hold May to her promises, which were no where near as unicorn flavoured as the promises of the Leave campaigns.
Cougar
Subscriber
What was that a couple of pages back about the EU stepping in?Interesting Cougar, if it happens.
Trouble is, The Blond Wizard will insist it is the EU caving in.
The reality is it puts the **** show back in his court of course. I wonder if will will day we still leave on the 31st even if the EU say we don't have to now. In a way, he kind of has to given the "do or die" rubbish. Could be a clever move by the EU.
Bit worried though as it also gives him longer to campaign for the GE which I suspect he might just won.
Could be a clever move by the EU.
Yup, it would make it clear that a No Deal exit is entirely a UK decision.
What was that a couple of pages back about the EU stepping in?
If it was Donald Tusk that has said it rather than Gordie Broon I'd be more inclined to believe it
The results from the November 2017 survey of businesses indicated that there were 1.8 million contracts that did not guarantee a minimum number of hours.
Yup more than 1.5 million people. Barely worth talking about.
How many of the 1.5 million people are working 1 hour per week and how many are working pretty much full time? (even without a guarantee of minimum number of hours) Combined with how many are working the amount of hours THEY want to work, i.e. students.
Get the answer to that and yes, barely worth talking about indeed.
6% of the population don’t have guaranteed hours from week to week that is a significant part of the working populace.
Mrstaxi provides social care, she's on a zero hours contract. In practice that neans she can work more or less whatever hours suit her. She currently does about 30 but could do 50 if she wanted. A friend does only 12. Zero hours isn't alway a bad thing and a godd chunk of the 6% will use the contract to their benefit.
Zero hours isn’t alway a bad thing
But more often than not it is.
this was the THM line about zero hours. 'look at the flexibility it provides for the workers'. undoubtedly true, but i'd be curious to know how many of them would prefer to know whether they are going to work next week, or not. quite a few, i suspect. as someone who did a stint for manpower many years ago, not knowing if you were working tomorrow, or even today, was not exactly useful. less so if you have dependents and fixed outgoings i imagine.
is that 6% of the working population, or the population? very different numbers.
Misdirection.
Answer the specific points, please.
not very likely. didn't answer my point about no deal, the factions of leave, vs the remain block, and i don't expect he will. too busy contradicting himself.
taxi25
Member
Zero hours isn’t alway a bad thing and a godd chunk of the 6% will use the contract to their benefit.
And this will be a massive consolation to the rest
Stephen Barclay tweets:
"The car industry’s ‘just in time’ supply chains rely on fluid cross-Channel trade routes. >1,100 trucks filled with car parts cross seamlessly from EU into UK each day. We need to start talks now on how we make sure this flow continues if we leave without a deal. /4"
18:33 28 August 2019
https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1166765868891725825?s=19
not very likely. didn’t answer my point about no deal, the factions of leave, vs the remain block, and i don’t expect he will. too busy contradicting himself.
Laying low for a bit after the ‘outing’.
My prediction is a return in a couple of pages with a new tack.
Maybe we will go back to the “you must understand the alienation of the morons, in the name of all that is holy, who will think of the poor little morons” approach......?
hmm. i wasn't playing the ball.
what are the objectives of the architects of all this? it isn't about leaving the EU, really. the country we're likely to have left will very likely become smaller in both territory and economy, with what looks like a much more likely departure of scotland and even northern ireland, already is diminished in the eyes of the world, businesses that can will leave, so will the most capable individuals. there is nothing unifying in this. the middle classes certainly did not vote for no deal. the headbangers won't accept any deal at all, so johnson's talk of getting a better deal is pointless - it'll never be accepted even if it was possible. we've gone from 'easiest deal in history ' to no deal is the only deal. anyone who thinks there is a compromise to be struck with the erg and their ilk is deluded. there is no compromise with them. it's either stay, or go, and if we go, which looks increasingly likely, the country is FUBAR. cameron's observation of ' these people just won't take yes for an answer ' continues to ring true.
this is looking pretty ****ing grim. but it is NOT the fault of reaminers.
what are the objectives of the architects of all this?
The real architects? Mainly the break up of the postwar settlement and its sale to the highest bidders. They hate anything that smacks of society looking after itself and not allowing profit to be made from it. They will have mates who run outsourcing firms or have been given a nod from American giants like Haliburton that they will be well rewarded for getting them an ‘in’ to the fire sale of what they will call ‘unsustainable’ public services.
At the highest political level (Putin) it keeps his schtick about ‘it is a dangerous world out there my fellow citizens, you stick with me and we will be fine’ destabilisation to draw attention away from Russia kleptarchy ‘thing’ going.
On the nasty local political level (think UKIP, Brexit Party), they think that they are going to ‘arrest the slide’ of the UK into a multicultural nation. Roll back the years of ‘tolerance’ and reclaim some mythical past where everyone was white and they all left their doors unlocked or somesuch bollocks. Truth is, they’ve been played. They’ve just been fed the xenophobic and racist shit to appeal to their inner bigot and their worst instincts. When they wake up in a few months time and realise there aren’t any extra police to ‘instill some good old british values’ because the coffers are empty, they might just realise their stupidity. But as the likes of Cummings have done brilliantly, they have weaponised stupidity and so the blame will go in all the usual directions. The EU. Immigrants. Benefit cheats.
Laying low for a bit after the ‘outing’.
On way to the anti-Boris protest in manc today. Not sure what you think you've revealed but I assure you it's in your imagination.
My prediction is a return in a couple of pages with a new tack.
As opposed to finding ever more convoluted and esoteric arguments to persuade yourself that simple facts are fictional.
who will think of the poor little morons
The morons and their idiot political leaders who are currently running rings around their opponents because instead of making the argument for staying in the EU, you've resorted to calling everyone morons.
because instead of making the argument for staying in the EU, you’ve resorted to calling everyone morons.
Yeah, righty-ho, that’s the reason.
The argument was made before the referendum, in detail. But, to quote a Leaver where I used to work when I pointed it out “Oh, I couldn’t be arsed to read all that boring crap”. To quote a prominent Leave politician who should have known better “we’ve had enough of expert support”. Stupidity weaponised.
Being called a moron after the event has **** all to do with it. Just being a ****ing moron in the first place does.
Johnson is winning the 2019 election come what may now, isn’t he? Get an extension, and then he purges the Conservative Party to make it the Conservative Brexit Party, and win a majority. Don’t get an extension, No Deal Brexit, win over Brexit Party supporters, and win a majority. All anyone else (us?) will be doing is voting tactically and trying to reduce the size of that majority to hamper him if possible. Someone with a glass half full perspective tell me I’m wrong… please…
because instead of making the argument for staying in the EU
Um, those people doing that have been accused of either trying to overturn democracy, or of just being out to undermine the leader of the Labour Party. Most often by you.
“No 10 sources” are saying that Conservative Party rules will be changed so that the PM’s team can deselect anyone voting against the party whip, even if constituency party members vote otherwise. More taking back control by Cummings. Personally, I’m not sure this threat will push all the Rebels the way it is supposed to.
[ no link, as I’ve only seen this in the dirty papers like the Sun ]
Um, those people doing that have been accused of either trying to overturn democracy, or of just being out to undermine the leader of the Labour Party.
I've said many times, if you want to change the nature of brexit, or even stop it, you need to change the minds of those who voted for it. You're never going to do that by calling them morons or obsessing about what Jeremy Corbyn may or may not have done. The remain side of the argument has become an inward looking patronising echo chamber. One that celebrates how bad everything is or will be rather than seriously trying to mitigate the damage. It's a tragic failure, and millions are going to pay the price.
and so the blame will go in all the usual directions. The EU. Immigrants. Benefit cheats.
... remoaners.
‘If you want to change the nature of Brexit’...
I read the following comment today somewhere or other, and it perfectly illustrates my feelings on the subject:
The problem Remain has is that they place a higher priority on facts. Apart from the fact that explaining a complex truth is a lot harder than telling simple lies, it also means there needs to be a certain amount of debate on what the facts actually are. The leave side is less interested in facts than doctrine, which allows them to show a lot more unity. You don't debate doctrine, you just repeat it.
‘Change my mind, or take the blame’... isn’t that what dazh is hinting at?
Etc
Johnson is winning the 2019 election come what may now, isn’t he? Get an extension, and then he purges the Conservative Party to make it the Conservative Brexit Party, and win a majority. Don’t get an extension, No Deal Brexit, win over Brexit Party supporters, and win a majority. All anyone else (us?) will be doing is voting tactically and trying to reduce the size of that majority to hamper him if possible. Someone with a glass half full perspective tell me I’m wrong… please…
Yep’ish
He could also ram thru a reworded May deal at the last moment , I’m not 100% sure on this but it’s an interesting outlier but if mps are that desperate to not have no deal then they have to vote for his deal.
The whole prorogation thing may be a ploy to force things his way by forcing them onboard.
I’ll also be surprised if the Sun piece about throwing people out the party isn’t on the right lines.
I’d be very surprised if he goes for an extension but whatever keeps the Tory party afloat will be what shapes what happens.
‘Change my mind, or take the blame’
No I'm saying that the failure to accept the result and move to a position of mitigation rather than reversal was a huge tactical mistake which has resulted in a much higher chance of no deal. Remain or bust basically, comfortable in the knowledge that those who voted for it will get their just deserts.