Thinking about it a bit more...
I reckon the EU will only allow an extension if we participate in the EU elections - hopefully remainers will get off their arses and participate in an EU election for once - otherwise we’ll be sending a far worse bunch of nut jobs to Brussels/Strasbourg than we’ve ever sent before. But given that the end of May (the month, how I wish it was Tez) isn’t enough time, then we’ll need to participate in EU elections to secure further extensions.
She’ll try for May 23rd though - despite nothing going her way, she’ll bloody try again to push the country to a cliff edge. ****ing red lines. If anyone needed to read her own van and just go home, it’s Tez.
It was really great to see Jez seize the opportunity to eviscerate her after her speech last night...
If only Brexit had been sold honestly . . . .
I'm guessing a short-term extension will happen, I can't see the EU not agreeing to that and the UK parliament won't have agreed on anything so will be the only option vs no deal. Trouble is a 1-3 month extension isn't going to help anyone, and we'll still be in the same mess as we are after the extension expires. A longer extension won't be an option as the EU will demand certain conditions that the UK parliament won't be able to agree with (e.g. GE or referendum).
So after the short extension it will be either no deal or referendum and as neither option will get a majority we'll exit with the default position of no deal.
2nd Referendum
Did anyone here the cheers and boos in parliament when TM mentioned this as a possibility?
When she mentioned the possibility of a 2nd ref there were cheers of yes but there was a massive cheer of no, clearly much louder than the cheers for yes. It looks to me like there is no majority in parliament for a second referendum. How this pans out, I have no idea!
I missed it .. Someone tell me what reaction there was when Jezza stood up and supported a peoples vote?
It's his party policy, No?
In 15 minutes there will be 376 hours until we leave the EU ‘by automatic operation of the law’. The Westminster mob plan to waste at least 36 of these hours voting on things.
OR
So after the short extension it will be either no deal or referendum and as neither option will get a majority we’ll exit with the default position of no deal.
Either way, the outcome’s the same, which I imagine is exactly what Mogg and his chums are aiming for.
… and thinking about it, if we do apply for an extension, it’ll be for another referendum.
Or a new no redline deal, part of the customs union with freedom of movement ?
If A50 is extended do we retain the ability to revoke it and go back to current status quo after Mar 29th, or is that a time limited option?
When she mentioned the possibility of a 2nd ref there were cheers of yes but there was a massive cheer of no, clearly much louder than the cheers for yes. It looks to me like there is no majority in parliament for a second referendum. How this pans out, I have no idea!
I heard that as a massive yes, and then a quick loud NO, not that indicative but you have to remember many can't participate in the shouting..... (no free shouting yet)
On extension, Mandy was on the BBC last night, his opinions had some grounding in reality (oh how we can laugh...) the EU elections are in May, so the top team will change and no really be locked in until the autumn so it holds better for a 12 month extension.
Though that is based on something being different. It also builds more time for a vote on the outcome or process.
EU said only way to get extension is with serious proposals.
I reckon a GE, Tories are ahead in the polls, they don't have to worry about Labour.
I see this line pretty much sums up the present situation
BBC news was all like:
Numerous EU leaders expressed their dismay after MPs voted by 391 to 242 votes to reject Mrs May's deal.
Thing is, if we do end up with a "People's Vote" referendum then there is a very real possibility that it will return a Leave vote, which solves nothing. (arguably a Remain vote would solve nothing too!)
It would need to be a multi-part ballot: Q1) Leave or Remain; Q2) If the vote is to Leave then do you want a) leave with no deal b) leave with May's deal c) unicorns.
I reckon the EU will only allow an extension if we participate in the EU elections
That's my thinking too.
Resigned to leaving without a deal - now looking forward to the prospect of watching working class brexit voters getting totalled by a combination of no deal Brexit and a conservative majority for the next decade.
The UK has never learnt a lesson from war or other political foolishness, we take our economic and political stability for granted. Hopefully this will humiliate the country into having some humility.
The MPs on telly last night were saying that there was a majority for labours's Brexit plan.
Has anyone from the EU hinted that their plan is doable?
A total ****ing shambles.
It would need to be a multi-part ballot: Q1) Leave or Remain; Q2) If the vote is to Leave then do you want a) leave with no deal b) leave with May’s deal c) unicorns.
Even this has it's problems - look on Facebook or Twitter & see how many people are shouting 'let's go WTO' 'No Deal' etc...
My personal favourite tho are the Facebook comments that say 'Leave WTO' - people aren't educated enough to know what no-deal means, it's been presented as no problem or project fear.
WTO isn't even guaranteed is it?
Resigned to leaving without a deal – now looking forward to the prospect of watching working class brexit voters getting totalled by a combination of no deal Brexit and a conservative majority for the next decade.
What a lovable bloke you are. No chance of you being first against the wall come the revolution.
Resigned to leaving without a deal
There are a bunch of amendments to the no deal vote tonight that would stop that totally. Apparently the Tories are whipping against those amendments but who knows how MPs will vote in the current climate.
Apparently the Tories are whipping against those amendments but who knows how MPs will vote in the current climate.
Whipping against a free vote 😉
Having just heard the current brexit sec (what's the point in learning their names) on his slash tariffs approach to trade and a blind eye to smuggling NI Border.
Nice soundbite but I'll be waiting until the WTO and ROW/G20 wake up and reply to see how realistic that is.
now looking forward to the prospect of watching working class brexit voters getting totalled by a combination of no deal Brexit and a conservative majority for the next decade.
There was a fruit and veg trader on the radio this morning frothing at the mouth and demanding no deal. Said most of his stock comes from Europe but 'They need us more than we need them'.
A fruit and veg trader.....
Thing is, if we do end up with a “People’s Vote” referendum then there is a very real possibility that it will return a Leave vote, which solves nothing. (arguably a Remain vote would solve nothing too!)
It's worth keeping in mind that referendums are advisory (although May forgot).
We will rule out a 'no deal' tonight. (I've still got everything crossed) and tomorrow we will vote for an extension. The EU aren't open to another round of talks, and why should they, they've been at it for 2 years or more and have given a fair offer.
If the Commons can't decide they need more info from us. May's deal is probably workable, no NI MPs of all sides won't like it, and for good reason, but better to piss off the Loyalists. Only a few pig shit thick nutters want "HARD BREXIT NOW" because they're just fill of bile and that's the most destructive way to do it, they're bitter Divorcees, happy to screw themselves to screw the other party. Like the ERG, they've vocal, but few.
If I were in charge the referendum would be May's Deal v Remain, it's fair as in it's a real deal and not all the BS that was promised by the leave campaign - if the pubic vote for it, then so be it really. It's the 'pointless' option as Blair said, but not everyone is a caught up in Economics as me and the idea of being 'free' of EU regs and laws is worth the financial hardship, it's a justifiable and genuine position to take IMHO, not one I agree with.
A 3-way Hard/May/Remain vote isn't fair, it will split the Leave vote and whilst we'll win the battle, we may lose the war - the UK and the British People need to put this shit to bed for a generation a least.
For me, the Labour deal is nonsense, Corbyn seems to think he can strike a better deal with the EU that put them in a worse position and us in a better one 'because magic' it's just a way to say "we would have done it better" to the Labour Voting Leavers, there's no time, he's stuck out at every opportunity to oust the Tories via Brexit.
Light relief:
Some guy was on the radio this morning advocating No Deal and surviving by catching wild rabbits and growing potatoes in the garden.
How can you reason with people like this?
Whipping against a free vote 😉
Whipping against the amendments.
Unamended this evening's vote is pointless - it basically says that "we don't like the idea of 'No Deal' even though that's where we're certainly headed". It doesn't take anything off the table.
The amendments are trying to add teeth, effectively to compel Govt to legislate to prevent No Deal. Gov will whip against that as the logical conclusion would be that EU27 would deny our request for an extension, we don't have a deal agreed, can't leave without a deal and therefore Art. 50 has to be rescinded.
And let's not forget the lesbo traety of 2020 when the EU will make us all go gayist.
Whipping against the amendments.
Yeah hence the smiley, the other part is with the exception on ministers the whips have very little control of the party. Tory MP's fell in line as soon as it was clear it would make no difference
The more I listen to the vox pop on Radio 5 the more it reinforces my understanding of the big lie that was used to sell Brexit - not lies about money on buses or lies about immigration or sovereignty - it is the overarching lie that Brexit would somehow be simple.
Caller after caller for no deal still stating how easy it would be to just leave if MPs, Europe, Media etc would just stop complicating it all. Boris, JRM, Gove, Fox and co have a lot to answer for. History will not judge them or this period of our history well
When she mentioned the possibility of a 2nd ref there were cheers of yes but there was a massive cheer of no, clearly much louder than the cheers for yes. It looks to me like there is no majority in parliament for a second referendum. How this pans out, I have no idea!
Call and response is just part of the parliamentary theater.
The "loudest shout" isn't actually the same as a voting majority, if the majority don't want EU-Ref2 they should vote for No-deal tonight, if they vote against No-deal, it follows IMO they must want an extension, and the other 27 are probably going to expect that extension is to allow EU-Ref2 (why else would they grant it?)...
Call and response is just part of the parliamentary theater.
almost certainly, it was actually one of the quietest debates I've seen in a while with a lot less "boo cause he isn't one of us" in some ways it was the Leavers/Die Hards that got caught out not expecting anyone to interrupt the suffering leader.
So they have just said that if there’s no deal, there will be no tariffs and no controls at the Irish border. Surely under WTO that means no tariffs on goods coming from anywhere in the world? So please explain how this puts us in such a strong position to negotiate trade deals…
the Brexiteers are disaster capitalists. This is what they've wanted all along: some Ayan Rand-esque vision of regulation-free turbo-capitalism. They'll abolish all tariffs, then they'll cut corporation tax or abolish it completely, then, inevitably, having destroyed the tax base its bye bye NHS, bye bye welfare state, and everything else....
They just chose not to write this down the side of a bus
Just seen this on Sky News
Fun fact
Today marks the two year anniversary of the first time Theresa May told the Commons that "no deal was better than a bad deal".
And it could just be the day MPs vote to rule it out.
Let's imagine there is a huge majority tonight for NOT leaving with no deal. If you were the EU then, would you not be sorely tempted to refuse an extension on the grounds that when pushed into the corner of no deal being the default in 14 days time and no possibility of an extension then the only thing left is to revoke Art 50?
I’m not convinced the vocal minority is all that small.
You bought into EU myths. Here a reality check. There were only two outcomes of the EU insult (I will decline to call it a deal, it was never intended as such by them)
Either the effective annexation of northern ireland into permanent customs union so no longer under UK control or jurisdiction Inevitably alienating unionists disturbing the peace (are you listening to DUP?) Or the building of a physical border alienating republicans both sides of the border So both the EU decided and forced (not UK forced) alternatives result in trouble and EU are deliberately inciting it.The simple alternative brexiteers support of an invisible electronic border avoids the grief. No border is perferct. Northern Ireland has very few points of entry, so it would work. But it offends EU intent on humiliation using their offensive red lines. World war II started by eannexation by the third reich, the fourth reich now want to annexe northern ireland.
Sadly varadkar is caught in the EU trap himself and is a useful idiot for them. If we do not allow annexation they will force him into building the wall, or demand he accept checks in the channel and gets fined for failing to do what he is told. Which is why he is fighting us. Varadkar is deeply unpopular at home, and is trying to score points being nasty to brits.
Surely any remainers rose tinted view of brussels is now tarnished by their refusal to negotiate in good faith or even negotiate at all. Which is why none can accept the deal which relies on good faith on their part.
From anothe forum and indicative of a regular narrative that the EU hate us therefore the only choice is out at any cost.
Same poster also pretty much labelled the UK left as militant fascists. Albeit in that ever so slightly indirect way that leaves the option of the Edinburgh defence.
The tragedy of Brexit is that at every point along the way, incompetence has trumped everything else.
Twitter is full of armchair pundits, people who knew nothing about the EU five years ago but who've been repeatedly told that there are simple solutions for complex problems. There are many complaints that the EU isn't working for people who've not bothered to vote in Euro Elections and who wonder why eurosceptic parties representing UK constituencies haven't bothered to represent them.
and we are off again
In basic terms, the prime minister would renegotiate the backstop element of her Brexit deal to replace it with a free trade agreement with as-yet-unknown technology to avoid customs checks on the Irish border.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/29/the-malthouse-compromise-everything-you-need-to-know-brexit-vote
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1105777295753691136
Twitter is full of armchair pundits, people who knew nothing about the EU five years ago but who’ve been repeatedly told that there are simple solutions for complex problems.
Peter Lily is on Five Live now saying we should leave with no deal, then SIMPLY negotiate a free trade deal from there
Anyone who uses the word 'simple' with regards to anything like this can be immmidaitely be discounted as an absolute imbecile
If we all just wish hard enough unicorns wil be real.............
and we are off again...
(Malthouse Compromise)
Utterly, utterly pointless. EU have consistently said they will not re-open the WA and these muppets expect us to go back and do so based on undefined technology that does not exist yet.
And we expect to be taken seriously?
Yeah but we have a couple of weeks to sort that. Simples.
free vote on malthouse, but not spelman.... tail wagging dog again
What is Malthouse? I've heard it mentioned a few times today - & I really can't be bothered to google it just now.
You gov are currently rolling out what reads like pre election survey, people are starting their polling - I expect printers are getting the calls soon.
free vote on malthouse, but not spelman…. tail wagging dog again
Gien the number of splitters and quitters she had the chance to get rid of her problem there.
What is Malthouse?
The local Wetherspoons?
It’s an amendment that they just all say “Bollocks to Brexit” and head, en masse, to the ‘Spoons and drink themselves into oblivion
