I'm naturally cynical, one side of me thinks this whole debacle was engineered. I think the Forex traders have already made thier money now, so it doesn't really matter any more to them.
The country has already suffered what little industry it has moving out in significant numbers, and we're an international laughing stock, but it's ok, certain people have already done quite nicely out of it.
Business as usual. Nothing to see.
Erm, logic says revoke A50. Can’t be that easy though.
I’m sure mikewsmith said it just involves sending an email ....iirc exact timeframe is a few minutes
As it seems in that situation revoking A50 would be the only sensible option.
Does it look like we have a sensible PM, or anyone sensible that could realistically replace her before the 21st, that would do that?
iirc exact timeframe is a few minutes
But you also need a week to pass the necessary legislation through both houses.
Just looked on skybet....
__________
"Government No Deal Motion"
Motion approved 1/25
Motion not approved 9/1
_________
So does that mean the bookies are thinking no deal is way out in front?
I've generally found them to be quite a good indicator of what's going on.
Read the motion.
The no deal motion rules out (or at least says they don't want it) a no deal, doesn't it? So they're saying if you put £25 on it passing (i.e. no deal isn't wanted) you'll get £26 back. So they're thinking it's basically a done deal, no deal will be rejected. Which isn't a bad thing, but we still don't have an alternative.
And yet….
You'd think we'd all be fully supportive of Corbyn's "long game", now the clock has ticked down, and he's finally revealed his hand… why are we so disillusioned with Labour under his leadership…? I can't think why…
The motion reads:
“That this House declines to approve leaving the European Union without a Withdrawal Agreement and a Framework on the Future Relationship on 29 March 2019; and notes that leaving without a deal remains the default in UK and EU law unless this House and the EU ratify an agreement.”
Motion approve = the house declines to agree to a no deal brexit. Which is almost guaranteed to be the case. But as the 2nd part says 'leaving without a deal remains the default in UK and EU law... unless there is an agreement'
That motion will get voted in, so no 'no deal'.
Then the extension will most likely get voted in. And I hope the EU says no to an extension, but this is the thing that could go wither way. In part they need us so giving us an extension would increase the chance of us not leaving. But also they've given us their final deal so they may see no point in an extension which would lead to months more negotiating.
I say, like a toxic relationship - rip the band aid off. You lose the 'benefits' that come with it, but do away with all the crap that also comes with it. It will be hard for a good while, but you'll come out stronger eventually. And don't forget to delete their number so you don't end up drunk texting at 2am begging to be taken back... 😀
well its been great !!!
That's not suprising Kimbers, a small amount have swung conservative - but a lot have swung Green or Ukip because they feel like Corbyn supports neither of their views. The Greens will be the young vote and the Ukip vote will be coming from their northern heartlands.
If Corbyn had gone with one or the other strongly, then he wouldn't have lost them so many votes - but he instead tried to be clever and is reaping the reward.
Like we all knew and predicted - well, save for DazH.
Genuine question. Assuming all plays out and there is another ‘people’s vote’z what exactly would the options presented be a assume one is remain but we’ve just spent 2 years not being able to agree and exit so what exactly is the other option. I can’t see how a credible, achievable option can be voted for ?
The no deal motion rules out (or at least says they don’t want it) a no deal, doesn’t it?
No, not sure even one of the amended motions would, until there is a majority for another course of action, no deal is the default.
Corbyn never mentioned a 2nd ref once after the vote loss tonight, just a GE.
If he won't listen to the membership/ labour voters what does he expect will happen at a GE ?
Ah, OK.... Thanks for clearing that up.
Personally, I'm hoping for an extension at least. Merely because there is a massive wait to get an appointment at the Einbürgerungsamt to hand in my paperwork for citizenship.
A long as I hand in my paperwork before the UK leaves the EU I get to keep my British passport as well as getting a German one.
As it seems in that situation revoking A50 would be the only sensible option.
Does it look like we have a sensible PM, or anyone sensible that could realistically replace her before the 21st, that would do that?
Cleverer people than me say that we can't revoke Art50 without Parliamentary approval....and that's not going to happen
The gov can recind A50 notification, they already have the power to. In theory they can also change/remove the date that we are due to Leave without parilimentary approval… in practise all hell would break out if they used that power… so new legislation needs passing through both houses. As you say, doesn't look likely… but that would be the choice of our politicians, esp our government… this is still all in their hands, for a few weeks more. Any damage is on them.
The no deal motion is the one taking it off the table. So that's the bookies' favourite.
Does it look like we have a sensible PM, or anyone sensible that could realistically replace her before the 21st, that would do that?
It's not clear that there is any party that would have a leader that could do that without the party disintegrating. I'm not so sure this problem was caused by the electorate as much as having two parties that have been split over this issue for too long.
Corbyn never mentioned a 2nd ref once after the vote loss tonight, just a GE.
If he won’t listen to the membership/ labour voters what does he expect will happen at a GE ?
He's clinging to the hope that the economy tanking will see him ushered in as our glorious saviour from Tory free marketeers.
I guarantee this is what is playing in his head right now
It will be hard for a good while, but you’ll come out stronger eventually.
How will we come out stronger as a small nation with tariffs and restrictions on trading with all our immediate neighbours? I don't see where our strength will come from here..? Strength and power come from working together as a large group.
[strong]molgrips[/strong] wrote:
It will be hard for a good while, but you’ll come out stronger eventually.
How will we come out stronger as a small nation with tariffs and restrictions on trading with all our immediate neighbours? I don’t see where our strength will come from here..? Strength and power come from working together as a large group.
That. Or having the biggest navy 😉
I don't see why everyone is getting so confused about this. We won't be leaving without a deal on 29th as there is a clear majority of MPs who do not want to leave without a deal, as demonstrated by recent previous votes. The notion that we'll stumble out because no one will vote for an alternative is ludicrous.
This is just the first stage of Brexit being kicked into the long grass.
JP
Uncharted waters.
The government is crippled, as is the opposition.
A GE won't help anyone or anything.
No one wants no deal.
I should laugh but there's nothing funny about it.
The only logical solution (which has been along) is to withdraw a50 and regroup for a more sensible position.
This is the most rediculous situation I could possibly imagine, it's not actually, it's beyond my imagination... it's fricking embarrassing and pathetic.
But I still think there's a lot of theatrics going on.. I don't think we'll end up leaving but there's been massive damage done, and more to come, because the childish bun fight is far from over.
Genuine question. Assuming all plays out and there is another ‘people’s vote’z what exactly would the options presented
Who knows?
This is just the first stage of Brexit being kicked into the long grass.
Well I truly hope so. It's cost a stupid amount of money to get to where we are after two and a half years but it will be be worth it if we can demonstrate how idiotic the two world wars, one world cup, unicorns, etc. myth is. For good.
Looks like the logical outcome is a no deal brexit.
1} EU have said there is nothing more to negotiate so whats the point in going back or extending a50.
2} The backstop is stabbing NI in their back.
3} the government must deliver the referendum result, otherwise what was the point in having one.
4} Cant see these MP’s being able to agree that tomorrow is Wednesday, let alone a Brexit deal.
Strange times!
Nadhim Zahawi (Newsnight) looks like a bond villain....
My long-held hope and wish for the UK to remain a full member of the EU is becoming more of a reality.
Looks like the logical outcome is a no deal brexit.
Er... No.
1} EU have said there is nothing more to negotiate so whats the point in going back or extending a50.
If we change our position / redlines of course there is a different deal that could be struck.
My car dealer analogy again; we want leather, Aircon, max 2 years old and automatic for under £10k and we are being told the best we can get is £12k, no matter how many times we ask.
But if we drop the leather and actually up to 3 years old is acceptable.....ah, now we can do something!
I don’t see why everyone is getting so confused about this. We won’t be leaving without a deal on 29th as there is a clear majority of MPs who do not want to leave without a deal,
It doesn't matter whether MPs vote to stop "no deal"...something active still has to be done. Either extend or rescind article 50. If that isn't done, we're out with no deal.
Assuming no deal gets sunk today, would there likely be a majority who vote down an extension leaving the only course of action to revoke A50?
Even if M.P’s vote no deal we are still leaving as it is written in law. Either ask for an extension or revoke Article 50
How will we come out stronger as a small nation with tariffs and restrictions on trading with all our immediate neighbours?
Unicorns.
1} EU have said there is nothing more to negotiate so whats the point in going back or extending a50.
2} The backstop is stabbing NI in their back.
3} the government must deliver the referendum result, otherwise what was the point in having one.
4} Cant see these MP’s being able to agree that tomorrow is Wednesday, let alone a Brexit deal.
🎵 One of these things is not like the others 🎵
I can't believe that three years on we're still having to remind people what "advisory" means.
EU probably aren't going to agree to extend A50 without some sane reasons for doing so (ie a 2nd referendum). There is little chance of any sane reasons coming from this government so we can forget about extending.
The other option is to revoke A50. No one in parliament has the balls to do that.
MPs can vote against no-deal all they want. It's coming and there's not much anyone can do about it.
I think we're heading for a second referendum, it's the only way out of the impasse, as there won't be a GE, and Europe won't allow an extension for more can kicking.
It also allows MPs to climb down.
Theresa May:
“Voting against leaving without a deal and for an extension does not solve the problems we face.
“The EU will want to know what use we mean to make of such an extension and this house will have to answer that question. Does it wish to revoke Article 50? Does it want to hold a second referendum? Or does it want to leave with a deal, but not this deal?”
So they have just said that if there's no deal, there will be no tariffs and no controls at the Irish border. Surely under WTO that means no tariffs on goods coming from anywhere in the world? So please explain how this puts us in such a strong position to negotiate trade deals...
So let me get this right.
Extending A50 isn't going to happen because every country in the EU28 (sic) has to agree to it.
No-deal isn't going to happen because it's a step too far for all but the most gammony ERG lot.
Revoking A50 isn't going to happen because government doesn't have the courage to do so.
What's that leave us with, then? Unicorns again? One of these three highly unlikely things has to happen.
My guess is that we'll apply for an extension (which is surely where the smart money is because the one reliable Tory consistency over the last three years has been to try and waste time); get told to foxtrot oscar (because it only takes one country to veto it and we're not exactly up to the barse in international goodwill right now); withdraw A50 in a panic on March 28th.
.....but any goods coming from NI to rUK will be subject to tariffs, via 'normal compliance and intelligence' methods (an honesty box?) to avoid the need for a hard border/checks in the Irish sea
DUP gonna love that......
@cougar; as others have said, of the three the 'if all else fails' position is genuinely to leave w/o a deal. Saying that people won't allow it is of no consequence, they have to do something instead. One of those two 'something else' options requires full agreement of the EU27 and I'm not convinced that someone will veto it.
Each of these if/and/or/then logic gates is a scary decision for various reasons and difficult to predict, although the bookies who are rarely wrong will offer you 6/1 on leaving on the 29th w/o a deal and 1/10 on us not leaving on the 29th.
It would be a gripping thriller if this was on Netflix, but as a recently redundant worker, it's terrifying that this shower of ****s have control over what you, me and our families face in the next 5-10 years.
... and thinking about it, if we do apply for an extension, it'll be for another referendum. It's the only way I can that we can justify asking, it allows the government to climb down and save face, and it's yet more can-kicking so the Tories will be all over it like a tramp on chips.
In 15 minutes there will be 376 hours until we leave the EU 'by automatic operation of the law'. The Westminster mob plan to waste at least 36 of these hours voting on things.
We may well be out with no deal due to time and incompetence.
History will judge both Mrs May and her party harshly due to gambling our futures for party unity.
@cougar we may get an extension we may not like the conditions attached to it. Our previously cushy membership may well get changed in ways ERG didn't expect and find unpalatable.
Cost of no tariff, 4 billions a year.
Tariff for the first time on some food from the EU. Surely prices are going to go up in supermarket unless cheap food from the US?
Basically the UK has put his pence down and bent over.
The EU will not allow an extension just to kick the can down the road a bit further. Has to be for a GE, 2nd Ref, or the emergence of a cross-party majority aiming for the softest Brexit possible.
All three options will be ugly to watch, and all the while, billions will be ebbing day by day out of our economy.
