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[Closed] Donald! Trump!

 pk13
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China is going to screw them into the ground now and they will enjoy it. China will not blink first theu can smell blood.

*Historically I'm no fan of Chinese government.


 
Posted : 07/04/2025 7:54 pm
pondo reacted
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Posted by: Oakwood

It wouldn't surprise me if it gets violent once the penny really drops with the USA public.

The USA public that elected Donald Trump? Twice?

 

I'm not proclaiming to be an expert... But don't USA citizens pay into a pension called '410' or something? I'm guessing it's like a SIPP if they don't have state pensions.. And that's just taken a hell of a hit..

If I've got that correct there's going to be be a hell of a lot of angry mildde age or closer to retirement people in the USA who are going to be very upset regardless of political persuasion.


 
Posted : 07/04/2025 8:24 pm
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I still can’t get my head around how he’s implementing such huge things by executive order and none of this stuff having to go through congress

I always thought America was a democracy 

It sure the **** doesn’t look like one at the moment.

There are murderous dictators around the world who must be wishing they had things this easy


 
Posted : 07/04/2025 8:37 pm
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Can't believe I'm supporting China on this one. What's happening.


 
Posted : 07/04/2025 8:38 pm
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But don't USA citizens pay into a pension called '410' or something

401(k) are salary sacrifice schemes defined by the IRS whereby US folks and their employers can invest for their retirement. Lots of grumbling from people about the decreasing values of their plans - similar to the chaos created by Truss.

 


 
Posted : 07/04/2025 8:49 pm
AD and pondo reacted
 pk13
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He is giving a press conference now he is off his head utter drivel.

It's all good according to Donny .


 
Posted : 07/04/2025 9:04 pm
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The Chinese economy is utterly dependent on export trade.  Domestic consumption is woeful.  The US accounts ffor over 15% of its direct and estimated to be almost another 15% of its indirect exports.   It simply cannot sustain a reduction in that trade by almost 50% which is what 100% tariffs would do to it.  This tax would kill huge swathes of Chinese industry in an economy already struggling with higher unemployment, especially with whats coming to China in the next 20y.  


 
Posted : 07/04/2025 9:07 pm
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Posted by: binners

I still can’t get my head around how he’s implementing such huge things by executive order and none of this stuff having to go through congress

Legally that is...interesting.

tariffs do seem to very definitely fall under the right of congress but over the years congress have handed more and more power over to the executive.

Congress could almost certainly push back on it but since the republicans have surrendered to him it seems unlikely so moves to the courts.

At least one court case has been launched based on the original Canadian/Mexico tarrifs so be interesting to see what happens. Especially since there has been an active campaign by republican judges to say delegation of power isnt allowed with regards to sec etc. Some do seem to believe in this principle vs just using it to try and undermine the democrats.

 


 
Posted : 07/04/2025 9:09 pm
pondo reacted
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Keep em dumb and angry and you've won

And the winnings - the booby prize - a dumb and angry population. 


 
Posted : 07/04/2025 9:19 pm
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none of this stuff having to go through congress

It’s an emergency (it isn’t), plenty of provisions for presidents to do whateverthelltheywant in an emergency. Just needs the wrong sort of person in the White House, with a strong hold on the houses and the courts, and they can take advantage.


 
Posted : 07/04/2025 9:42 pm
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Posted by: kelvin

none of this stuff having to go through congress

It’s an emergency (it isn’t), plenty of provisions for presidents to do whateverthelltheywant in an emergency. Just needs the wrong sort of person in the White House, with a strong hold on the houses and the courts, and they can take advantage.

I'm beginning to think/hope that his grip on the courts may not be as strong as he thought and we feared. I think what he's trying to do is so far off the scale there's no way the courts can turn a blind legal eye. 

 


 
Posted : 07/04/2025 10:24 pm
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The donald has it all under control.. hes gonna hit China with another 50% tarrif.

So, 104% tarrifs for China?...  the maths isn't really mathing.

 

It's like he thinks he's in a casino playing blackjack... and we all know what happened last time he was anywhere near a casino 🤣 

 

https://fortune.com/2025/04/07/trump-tariff-china-50-percent-retaliation-trade-war-stock-selloff/


 
Posted : 07/04/2025 10:24 pm
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The Chinese economy is utterly dependent on export trade.  Domestic consumption is woeful.  The US accounts ffor over 15% of its direct and estimated to be almost another 15% of its indirect exports.   It simply cannot sustain a reduction in that trade by almost 50% which is what 100% tariffs would do to it.  This tax would kill huge swathes of Chinese industry in an economy already struggling with higher unemployment, especially with whats coming to China in the next 20y.  

Is that right? I'm in a position of ignorance on this, but I kinda hoped China would have enough other locations to export to along with its own domestic markets to cope - bad news in many ways if not. 🙁 


 
Posted : 07/04/2025 10:59 pm
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Posted by: pk13

China is going to screw them into the ground now and they will enjoy it. China will not blink first theu can smell blood.

*Historically I'm no fan of Chinese government.

 

China could survive without the U.S market as it has developed trading links with over 100 countries since the 1960’s. but the U.S couldn’t survive without Chinese goods.

Not that I’m cheering on China but the longer this drags on then the weaker the U.S  becomes 

 

 


 
Posted : 07/04/2025 11:16 pm
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Posted by: somafunk

Posted by: pk13

China is going to screw them into the ground now and they will enjoy it. China will not blink first theu can smell blood.

*Historically I'm no fan of Chinese government.

 

China could survive without the U.S market as it has developed trading links with over 100 countries since the 1960’s. but the U.S couldn’t survive without Chinese goods.

Not that I’m cheering on China but the longer this drags on then the weaker the U.S  becomes 

 

 

That's the crazy thing about this trade war... The only real losers are the American public.
This trade war will hurt everyone to a lesser extent depending on how robust their economies and existing trade agreements are.

The only winners here are the insider traders who sold before all this kicked off.. So that will be Trump, Musk etc.


 
Posted : 07/04/2025 11:51 pm
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China have shown they can pivot very quickly (one of the benefits of an authoritarian regime) and I suspect they'll be able to build new factories or industries, or re-tool existing factories far quicker than the US will be able to on-shore their own manufacturing (even with the new Trump authoritarian regime).

Anyway, we'll see who blinks first...


 
Posted : 07/04/2025 11:57 pm
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The Chinese economy is utterly dependent on export trade.  Domestic consumption is woeful.

Yup, but the covid pandemic was a wake up call concerning how over reliant their economy was to exports as they pumped money into infrastructure projects to maintain economic activity.

Last December even before Trump's inauguration the Chinese government was talking about creating a bigger domestic market. And last month they announced  the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption"

No one can know how things will pan out but there is probably more method in Trump's madness than might appear to be the case, at least in the strategy mapped out by his advisors.

It would appear that the staggeringly high tariffs placed on Asian countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia, and Bangladesh, might be having the desired effect. I believe that they are among the countries that have expressed a very strong desire to come to a deal with Trump.

Apparently the big concession they might be asked to make is a commitment to have less favourable trade deals with China. Trump has (correctly imo) identified China as the greatest threat to American global dominance and everything is focused on taking that challenge on, and on many levels.

I hear that China has now announced all but a total ban on rare earths exports (they control 9O% of the rare earth market) which is vital to high tech industries. Special export licences will be required.

This is aimed at all countries not just the United States. This is China flexing its muscles and presumably like the US it will be expecting favours back in return.

 


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 12:42 am
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Maybe that's why Trump is so desperate to ring fence rights to Ukraines minerals... They must have something he wants and it ain't corn!


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 2:19 am
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Posted by: ernielynch

Trump has (correctly imo) identified China as the greatest threat to American global dominance and everything is focused on taking that challenge on, and on many levels.

Today.

Previously it was Russia, areas of the middle east, before that south east Asia, and before that it was much of South America

Who is next after china ? India, or Africa, or maybe full tilt on Europe, or perhaps even Australia  Americans final axis of 'evil'

 

I think though with China they've bitten off a bit more than they can chew, and China is probably the only other country on the planet who can go toe to toe with the US.


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 2:44 am
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It's like he (Trump) wakes up every morning and chooses a new offence initiative... friend or foe, it matters not.

Spin the wheel, where it stops, nobody knows!


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 2:54 am
Cletus reacted
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That's the crazy thing about this trade war... The only real losers are the American public

Trump says he hates VAT, and claims (somewhat nonsensically) that it’s a trade subsidy.

But if he adds tariffs, which are then just passed straight on to the American consumer, then all he’s effectively done is impose a sales tax. One that looks remarkably like VAT

There's an interesting article in this mornings Times by William Hague. He notes Farages comment on Trump that we should take him seriously but not literally and says the opposite is true - that Trump is the most literal man alive.

There’s no sub plot or hidden agenda. He literally means what he says. The tariffs show that, so we should take it just as literally about his intentions towards Canada and Greenland and him securing a third term


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 7:09 am
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Yup, but the covid pandemic was a wake up call concerning how over reliant their economy was to exports as they pumped money into infrastructure projects to maintain economic activity.

Last December even before Trump's inauguration the Chinese government was talking about creating a bigger domestic market. And last month they announced  the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption"

Very true, but none, not a single one of China’s policies intended to boost domsetic growth or an increase in birthrate have succeeded.  Housing was a dissaster and infrastructure isn’t helping.  Its still stuck below 2.8% (claimed) despite trillions in incentives and liquidity.  Add to this that the Chinese population is going to decrease by 140m in the next 15-20y and by 650m in the next 70y and that for the first time in its history, a significant proportion of the population (>20%) will be old enough to retire and be cared for by the state over the next 10y. Decreasing income, decreasing labour, increasing social support, little domestic supply and increasing average wage (~20% in 2-3y)….China’s ascendancy doesn't really look so assured as it once did.   Contrast this with India…Indi’s rise is far from done and will peak long after China will start to decline and much of indias exports are service based…


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 7:29 am
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Trumps plan is a good one (or could be).  He now has people bargaining with him as he has impacted pretty much everyone and got them all into a panic.  He can remove tariffs as and when he wants when he feels he has got what he wants out of each country.  The EU are trying to do something now, some countries are promising to buy more US stuff etc,.

If he gets mostly what he wants (China could be a problem!) then in a month's time it will all be largely back to normal (stock markets will recover as they always do with rich people becoming richer along the way) only the US will be in a better position than when it started.  Nobody else would have been brave enough/stupid enough to do what he has done but as he doesn't really care about the short term consequences he can try it.


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 7:50 am
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I'll agree he's taking a massive gamble that might pay off in the short-term. 

But longer term he has totally ****ed the US. No one trusts him while he's in power not to backtrack on a deal, no one trusts the US that they won't reelect a similar nutter in the future. And everyone is making plans to be less reliant on the US going forward.

If China is restricting rare earth minerals, if I was a Greenlander I'd be really hoping we didn't have what the US needs.. 


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 9:09 am
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If anyone needs a laugh in these troubled times, seek out Elon's recent pathetic attempt to livestream a video game from his private jet (the Musk thread seems to have died again).

A reminder that this is the game which he paid someone to make it look like he was one of the best ranked players in the world.

Not only was he trolled relentlessly in the stream chat, but he couldn't make it past the easiest first boss fight in the game (basically the tutorial) and rage quit, blaming his internet connection.

The world appears to be run by some of the most insecure narcissists in the history of the planet.

 


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 9:29 am
pondo reacted
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On BBC news earlier, they mentioned talks between Trump and Iran regarding nuclear weapons. What on earth does that mean?


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 9:30 am
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 No one trusts him while he's in power not to backtrack on a deal, no one trusts the US that they won't reelect a similar nutter in the future.

Agreed. See also Putin and various, so-called, 'peace deals' which get abandoned when it suits. Trump is basically bullying almost the whole world, and if it works, is likely to do the same again, albeit on a piecemeal basis where he thinks it's convenient. Good luck to China is my gut reaction


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 9:30 am
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Posted by: Bunnyhop

On BBC news earlier, they mentioned talks between Trump and Iran regarding nuclear weapons. What on earth does that mean?

 

Probably along the lines of "stop that or get a visit from all the B2s we've sent to Diego Garcia" with maybe an offer of removing sanctions, and maybe something to create some distance between them and Russia.

 


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 9:42 am
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If he gets mostly what he wants (China could be a problem!) then in a month's time it will all be largely back to normal (stock markets will recover as they always do with rich people becoming richer along the way) only the US will be in a better position than when it started. 

Or possibly, their biggest trading and security partners will have begun the long but necessary process of disentangling themselves from reliance on the US. They've seen how this kind of volatility in US politics makes them vulnerable, economically and militarily.


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 9:44 am
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Posted by: Bunnyhop

On BBC news earlier, they mentioned talks between Trump and Iran regarding nuclear weapons. What on earth does that mean?

The end is nigh, given the way he runs trade talks?

 


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 10:08 am
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Or possibly, their biggest trading and security partners will have begun the long but necessary process of disentangling themselves from reliance on the US.

Yes, everyone will probably be doing that but it will ultimately just end up with reliance on other countries unless all countries go for a smaller economy, more insular approach which is unlikely.  Countries simply didn't expect a major western country to be such a dick but here we are and they may learn from it when they rely on others.   


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 10:15 am
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one thing not being mentioned much, is that the understood goals of these tarifs (bring more manufacturing to USA, renegotiate various trade policies to have terms more favourable to the USA) are completely contradictory.

 

In order to persuade a manufacturer to invest in US based facilties, with all the time, expense and hassle that'll involve, that manufacturer will need to be sure that the tarrifs are permanent. If they get renegotiated half way through the move, you'd be in a right pickle.

 

But if the tarrifs are intended to force negotiations then they arent permanent, so cant lead to more industry in the US

 

🤷‍♂️


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 10:55 am
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 poly
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Posted by: martinhutch
Not only was he trolled relentlessly in the stream chat, but he couldn't make it past the easiest first boss fight in the game (basically the tutorial) and rage quit, blaming his internet connection.

A bit like when he broke the windows on the impenetrable cybertruck, has he really just blamed his (presumably Starlink) connection for shit gaming?


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 11:16 am
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 poly
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Posted by: Bunnyhop

On BBC news earlier, they mentioned talks between Trump and Iran regarding nuclear weapons. What on earth does that mean?

If he can't get his Nobel peace prize from sorting the Ukraine crisis he thinks he can get one from sorting the middle east tensions?  Now remember not long ago he offered to turn Gaza into Trump Middle East Resort - he might be looking for the first visitors!  Was it linked to the cancellation of the press conference with Netanyahu yesterday?  

The idea of a hot-headed, religiously motivated, power-hungry narcisist, delusional about his own importance with no real understanding of how the world outside his own country actually works trying to negotiate with Tehran is both terrifying and at the same time entertaining.  Generally I would say reopening dialogue should be a positive sign, and whilst I'm no Trump fan there is no doubt Iranian advisers must now be in little doubt that all the normal rules of international diplomacy are off the table.  Even if they only achieve Russian level rhetoric about seeking civilised solutions that would be a good start. 

 


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 11:35 am
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Rare earths is why trump wants a ukraine deal and greenland as they both have them and he doesn't want to rely on chinese supply


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 11:38 am
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Posted by: poly

The idea of a hot-headed, religiously motivated, power-hungry narcisist, delusional about his own importance with no real understanding of how the world outside his own country actually works trying to negotiate with Tehran is both terrifying and at the same time entertaining. 

I agree withall of that apart from religiously motivated. Trump is many things but he doesn't have any religious leanings at all. Of course he tells his red neck supporters otherwise, but so do all US politicians. 


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 11:55 am
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How much of a danger is it that this ends up escalating and China makes its military move on Taiwan?

 

China wont want to lose face so theyll keep devaluing their currency and threatening more reciporcity, meanwhile getting deeper into Africa and other nations that the US is retreating from


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 2:10 pm
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IMHO tariffs are just another way of attention seeking from the man that craves constant attention.


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 6:20 pm
pondo reacted
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Picking a trade war with China is very stupid, they can stand way more pain politically and financially than the US and shift very cheap goods to the rest of the world. XI has 100% of the vote, Donald has 51%


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 6:49 pm
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Posted by: kimbers

How much of a danger is it that this ends up escalating and China makes its military move on Taiwan?

 

Hardly any I'd have thought. At the very least China just need to not to behave like total loonies and they come out of this looking statemen-like and level headed, and will probably (for once) have the tacit diplomatic support of Europe and the rest of the world. 


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 6:51 pm
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 pk13
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China can cancel thanksgiving, Halloween and Christmas all buy June. No stock in the shops or on boats by mid summer and it's game over for murica.

Anyone thinking xi won't put the Chinese population under a bit of stress for a year to make 10 years progress on the world stage?

And they will just sell all that plastic tat elsewhere by flooding the market.


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 7:06 pm
leegee reacted
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cancel thanksgiving, Halloween and Christmas,

sounds good, whats the catch?


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 7:21 pm
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Posted by: pk13

China can cancel thanksgiving, Halloween and Christmas all buy June

Is that a threat or a promise?


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 7:22 pm
 pk13
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Leave Christmas alone you grumpy buggers . They can keep the other 2 although Halloween is Irish so that gets a slight pass


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 7:31 pm
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Christmas works OK without all the plastic tat anyway.


 
Posted : 08/04/2025 7:59 pm
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