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Trump is going to hand himself in apparently...
I'm a bit disappointed, I was hoping for an O.J. Simpson style get away in a golf buggy.
convert
Full MemberWhy is this illegal? In fact why is it not being blackmailed?
It's not being blackmailed because she didn't say "give me X dollars or I'll go to the press", he said "please don't go to the press, I'll give you X dollars"
And it's not illegal to pay people off- you're going to hear a lot of that coming up. What mattered was that he used campaign funds- other people's money- to do it, and that's fraud. Now a lot of people will say "so what". But Trump's entire career in politics and out has been about throwing around other people's money, so it's more relevant than it looks. It's not a one-off or a slip, it's his entire MO
It's like, if Boris Johnson gets done for misleading parliament, it's not just relevant for that one time, it's relevant because he's a compulsive liar and it's not one incident.
But Trump’s entire career in politics and out has been about throwing around other people’s money, so it’s more relevant than it looks. It’s not a one-off or a slip, it’s his entire MO
Exactly. He's made a career of just flouting financial regulations, knowing that investigating and prosecuting a rich guy is too much trouble for most regulators. When he does get caught, he hires lawyers to negotiate it down to a minor fine or something, then he just goes on doing it anyway. Yes, he should be prosecuted for the big crimes, but I think he should also be prosecuted for every single minor crime too, just like regular people would be.
https://twitter.com/SimplyMetric/status/1639317210765180952
Michael Cohen has already been sent to jail for this even though it was Trump who jumped into bed with Ms Daniels.
So it's hard to argue it's not a crime.
I watched a bit of this on Fox, as I thought it would be interesting to see if they're doing anything different while they get stuffed to the tune of $1.6 Billion for talking shite about Dominion.
Nope, not a bit of it, I swear they'd rather there be a full on Civil War than loose any viewers. The coverage of this is wall to wall, and it's just a long list of folks coming on to say it's the Dems out to get Trump or weaponizing the law, or any variation of the above.
I get why the NY cops want everyone on duty!
I’m a bit disappointed, I was hoping for an O.J. Simpson style get away in a golf buggy.
Please let it be so....
Even better, when he does get taken in to court, please can Melania wear this again.
The problem with going after Trump on pretty minor stuff like that
Minor stuff is what campaigns are built and won on. If repeated claims about sordid relationships and his attempts to hush them had been proven before the election, then his voters might not have been impressed.
Imagine a campaign without the relatively minor issue of Hillary Clinton's emails, for example. She'd probably win the election if the FBI hadn't announced an investigation weeks before the vote. Small things matter, as Trump found out. Literally small, according to Stormy Daniels.
Bit gutted about this tbh. He'll do far more damage to the republican cause if he runs. If the case prevents him from running they get a chance to 'wipe the slate clean' and win back some of the middle ground. Given that Biden will be visibly and publicly, very elderly, against a younger vibrant rep candidate, it could play into rep hands.
So whilst its legally (if not morally) fine to pay her hush money, its wrong because a rich man (who could afford $130K without noticing) put his hand in the wrong pocket to do the paying. Yes, I can see it's illegal but I'm still not convinced its the right first play.
Yes, he should be prosecuted for the big crimes, but I think he should also be prosecuted for every single minor crime too, just like regular people would be.
While I sort of agree, this is also politics. The republicans can set the narrative ball rolling in the court of public opinion (actually not public opinion - the bit of the public that either do vote GOP or could possibly vote it in the future) that this is persecution not prosecution- which will be a hell of a lot easier with this than the storming of the Capitol and people dying. By the time they get to the good stuff the public will either be bored or enraged and the Dems (who are not doing the prosecuting, but sort of are because of the daft US system) will start looking like the bad people. Stupid I know, but people are stupid.
Statue of limitations means they have to charge the Stormy Daniels campaign finance violation before May IIRC.
He’ll do far more damage to the republican cause if he runs.
He's still the front-runner by some distance. TBH his best strategy at this point is to continue his run, and try to delay the case by the usual means until deep into 2024, in the hope that prosecutors will have to back off rather than prosecute an actual presidential candidate during a campaign.
Hopefully it'll be just the first in a wave of 'minor' charges, showing no-one is above the law.
Maybe the same message will come over here - PPE, anyone?
Yes, I can see it’s illegal but I’m still not convinced its the right first play.
I am expecting a second, third, maybe fourth and more play next.
As above, I thought they were up against time on some of these.
I also was just listening to R4 and someone was suggesting we don't know the full sheet of accusations - and that there is probability of more than just paying off Stormy the wrong way.
Muller, set out the case for 11 indictments, 7 of which were strong, it’s a mystery to me why none of these have seen the light of day (well Bill Bar of course). Was Stormy Daniels one of them, I can’t remember?
He’ll do far more damage to the republican cause if he runs.
I'm not convinced of that. First, if he runs, there is a very real chance that he will be elected. He was an absolutely disastrous president, not just for America, but for worldwide democracy itself. Other Republicans like Desantis, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, etc. are unprincipled opportunists and I doubt that they would be very good presidents, but they are a class above Trump, they would just make lousy presidents, not extremely dangerous presidents. This is because they are all graduates of elite law schools and they do understand how the constitution and courts work, they have just realized that Trump controls the MAGA base and they need to parrot what the MAGA base wants to hear. I think they will be even less electable than Trump because they are such transparent opportunists, but even if they did win, they would be much, much less bad presidents than Trump.
He should get in touch with Paltrow's lawyers, they may offer him some scented candles.
Was Stormy Daniels one of them, I can’t remember?
I doubt it. I think this is a local case, not a federal one, but I'm not sure. He's facing some state level investigations (Georgia, for example), plus some federal ones (I assume the Traitorous Insurrection will be federal level). It's really hard to keep track of all the investigations and who exactly is doing the investigating and prosecuting.
going after Trump on pretty minor stuff like that, years after it happened, .... look a bit like a political witch-hunt
Even if he was charged with masterminding the Jan 6th riot, the MAGA lot will claim it's a witch hunt.
I'm looking forward to a police mugshot of him without the comb-over, similar to the one of Phil Spector with his straggly hair & bald bonce!
Unfortunately the MAGA lot are slightly unhinged and have access to military grade firearms. I could see this getting very ugly indeed. Fox 'News' have been whipping them up already. It all feels quite dangerous.
I also was just listening to R4 and someone was suggesting we don’t know the full sheet of accusations – and that there is probability of more than just paying off Stormy the wrong way.
We wont know until Tuesday when they are unsealed. However its being reported by US outlets there are about 30 separate charges and references to "business fraud".
Which suggests something more than just paying her off.
It’s really hard to keep track of all the investigations and who exactly is doing the investigating and prosecuting.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_lawsuits_involving_Donald_Trump
and
I could see this getting very ugly indeed.
Agreed.
I hope you are right Matt,and that this is a crack in his bullshit armour, just before the other cases flood into play 🤞
Even if he was charged with masterminding the Jan 6th riot, the MAGA lot will claim it’s a witch hunt.
Yes the 'MAGA lot' would, obviously there is little hope of changing their minds. But they aren't the issue.
The people whose opinions matter are those those who voted Trump in 2016, but didn't vote for him in 2020, and might vote for him, or a Trump backed candidate, in 2024.
Part of Trump's strong appeal is that he is perceived as being anti-establishment. The establishment, in this case the District Attorney, going through all his affairs with a fine tooth comb looking for what at least appears to be quite minor rule breaches which occurred years ago simply strengthens that claim.
It will be seen as a political witch-hunt by many undecided voters, especially when compared to the case of Bill Clinton who was charged with perjury and obstruction of justice and yet got away with it.
Organising a failed insurrection is an extraordinarily serious crime for a former president to be guilty of, even non-partisan voters would agree.
It is hard to believe that the US judicial system is so ****ed up that it has to rely on fairly minor false accountancy claims to go after those guilty of sedition, despite overwhelming evidence of the latter.
Someone earlier made the comparison with the imprisonment of Al Capone on a tax evasion conviction which is fair imo, however surely the evidence of Trump's involvement in the events of 6th of January is indisputable? Al Capone was a bit smarter than Donald Trump in covering his tracks.
"Unfortunately the MAGA lot are slightly unhinged and have access to military grade firearms. I could see this getting very ugly indeed. Fox ‘News’ have been whipping them up already. It all feels quite dangerous"
I wouldn't disagree. Though one has to ask the Republicans: "When you reversed the assault weapons ban in the mid 2000's, what did you expect / want to happen?."
I would suggest that if half the nation hadn't been armed to the teeth with military grade weaponry over the preceding decade then we wouldn't have seen the Jan 6th raid on the Capitol building.
As it stands, American democracy is being held to ransom by morons with machine guns. Something will have to give, there's currently more than one gun per person in the US, in a couple of years it'll be 2 guns per person, then 3, then....
It's got to end somewhere and the sooner the better. Let Fox News and their minions have their day, come out all guns blazing then get their arses handed too them like a bunch of Wagner ****ers. Let those 2nd amendment tossers who arm themselves against government tyranny put their theories to the test.
The government can then wrench those AR15's from their 'cold, dead hands...'
The only way the US will ever see any meaningful gun legislation is if their is an escalation of political violence.
It's all just a Stormy in a D-Cup
(Unashamedly stolen from Twitter).
This is the other thing to keep in mind - we don't know exactly what crimes he's been charged with yet.
https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1641774465758511105
Political pundits from the Guardian to the Telegraph are suggesting that Trump could benefit significantly from the criminal charges :
https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/960267/teflon-don-could-trump-benefit-from-indictment
The BBC midday news also suggested that Trump could see political advantages from any attempt to prosecute him.
Edit: That link might be behind a paywall so this one should work;
The BBC midday news also suggested that Trump could see political advantages from any attempt to prosecute him.
The polling suggests otherwise.
Democrats polled 88% that this should disqualify him from being allowed to run (and presumably the other 12 are split between "let him, it'll be a car crash" and "would say no regardless because it's still a democracy".
Republicans it's 23%. How many of those 23% would continue that thought to the point of not voting for him in an election is debatable, but US elections are won in a swing state by 49/51% seemingly every time. It doesn't take much to tip that.
Caveat, that's people who identify one way or the other. Could well be that the middle ground is somewhere in between, but that would mean he's done for (if 23%-88% of swing voters don't think he should be allowed to run, then they're certainly not voting for him).
'Could' is doing some heavy lifting in The Week article.
Just as easy to say and pontificate that '...trump is unlikely to see any advantage or benefit from criminal charges'.
I think it's likely that criminal charges will turn most undecideds against trump and 'soft republicans' will back any candidate other than him.
Trump lost the popular vote in both presidential elections. The last midterm was a disaster for the Republicans and candidates who went full MAGA underperformed the generic Republican vote. To win the presidency back, he has to persuade people who voted for Biden to switch their votes, or at least not vote. Trump being indicted might energize his base but it will also energize the Democrat base and it's not going to make anyone who voted against Trump suddenly decide to vote for him. Being indicted is never going to help him get elected.
https://twitter.com/amandacarpenter/status/1641765837257297925
some heavy lifting in The Week article.
What on earth are you talking about "heavy lifting" in The Week article?
They are simply quoting political commentators. Some of them, such as the Guardian’s Washington D.C. bureau chief, are fairly well qualified to express a credible appraisal of how the latest development might affect Trump's political ambitions.
Obviously I don't expect you to agree with them because presumably you believe that you are better informed.
But I don't think that quoting is variety of very different sources amounts to "heavy lifting" by the Week.
Is "heavy lifting" now the term to be used when you can't deny the premise of a point??
Trump being indicted might energize his base but it will also energize the Democrat base and it’s not going to make anyone who voted against Trump suddenly decide to vote for him.
Which presumably is why the Guardian's man talks about "at least in the short term", ie, securing the Republican nomination I imagine.
I guess it also largely depends on how things pan out - acquittal is likely to give him a boost. BBC News mentioned that legal issues surrounding political funds are historically very difficult to prove in the US.
BBC News mentioned that legal issues surrounding political funds are historically very difficult to prove in the US.
We don't know what the charges are. They may be tax violations rather than campaign fund violations.
https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1641774465758511105
He'll get away with this won't he?
As mentioned above though, he has all the votes he will ever get and is doing nothing to win over Dem votes. Probably the best we can hope for. Noisy but impotent outside of the True Believers he already has.
Well, whether s/he had/not an affair is really a non-issue where two consenting adults are concerned IMO and especially where money exchanged hand for the purpose. Not because of who she is btw. She has taken the money if that is true then she broke the agreement between them. i.e. one of the unspoken rules.
I think she has just put her life in danger by getting herself entangled in a highly polarised politics. If not careful the danger might come when she least expected.
Democrats that want to end Trump political career doesn't have a clue how to do it properly but this will backfire, even if Trump is guilty of having an affair or paying money to cover up.
Every one keeps going on about swing voters, but that really isn't how the last election played out, there were **** all republicans voters who swung to Biden, in fact Trump got better numbers than in 2016. However the anti Trump vote energised more traditionally disenfranchised voters to vote dems who increased their numbers even more.
IMO it is about keeping those voters engaged that is going to win the next election again or not, and I doubt this will be enough to keep them onside when they are continuing to suffer financially. The dems need to deliver more on the day job rather than relying on whatever the US version of "Westminster bubble politics" is.
He’ll get away with this won’t he?
I think Michael Cohen mentioned in his book that DT had expensed the payments so that he got the Trump corp to pay for them, so effectively avoided paying tax on a "benefit in kind".
The Trump corp has already been found guilty of exactly this with all of the free houses/schools/cars for various Trump executives.
I know that if I tried to expense paying off a porn star my employer would not approve my expenses claim - Concur doesn't even have a category for that. And if they *did* approve it I feel like HMRC would be very unimpressed.
If he doesn't get prosecuted it seems like one law for Trump and another one for the rest of us.
If he doesn’t get prosecuted it seems like one law for Trump and another one for the rest of us.
Couldn't agree more but I'm no longer naive enough to think we are all equal, power really does buy a near immunity for all but the most egregious of transgressions here and in the USA. Boris, Trump etc etc.
he has all the votes he will ever get and is doing nothing to win over Dem votes.
It depends how it goes. Plenty of people are likely to see this as purely politically motivated, which of course is what it is - the fact that the District Attorney is a Democrat isn't some sort of weird coincidence.
If he is seen to be the victim of a politically motivated trial, and he's very good at playing the victim, it could certainly win him votes from independents/undecided/swing voters.
At the 2020 presidential election Trump received over 10 million more votes than he received in the 2016 presidential election, so despite all the incompetence and blunders he has the ability to make people vote for him who previously hadn't.
No one knows exactly what these charges relate to but even if he is not acquited it looks possible that it might just result in a fine and not bar him from standing.
Pursuing him for insurrection and sedition would be a whole new ball game. For a start many Republican lawmakers, included the hard-right Republican vice President, were horrified by his behaviour.
It wouldn't be seen so much as a politically motivated trial but more one in defence of democracy and the constitution.
The maximum penalty for sedition is 20 years, a guilty verdict would bar him from standing next presidential election.
If the US judicial system can't pursue him on such a serious charge then he is above the law in a meaningful way.
It wouldn’t be seen so much as a politically motivated trial but more one in defence of democracy and the constitution.
But according to one particular loudmouth supporter, America isn’t a democracy anyway, it’s a Republic. Hence no need to defend it from anyone other than Far-Left Libtards.
What I’d love to see happen:
Loudmouth supporters aside I think it is fair to say that most Americans pride themselves in living in a democracy, and passionately believe in the supremacy of the US constitution.
"If he doesn’t get prosecuted it seems like one law for Trump and another one for the rest of us."
He's not being prosecuted by the government, he's being prosecuted by the State of New York. Technically the charge will probably be classed as money laundering.
New York is one of the Worlds leading financial centres, they don't look lightly on that sort of thing.
It's only political if you make it so, either as a pathetic defence or as an attempt to rationalise the best way to get Trump.
It's all about the rule of law and the need for it to be re-established in the US. Likely the other cases regarding election interference in Georgia and insurrection in Washington will drop on his doormat before this case has been resolved and he'll be facing a triple threat.
And as I mentioned earlier, let the cosplay militias go apes**t too If they want to. Lock him up, Lock them up too if they break the law. If they come out all guns blazing then shoot them.
If the 2nd amendment notion that citizens need to be armed with military grade weapons in order to protect themselves from government tyranny isn't challenged now then the US is doomed. There will come a point when the US will start to sink under the weight of guns, never mind rising sea levels.
The question is... Was a 5 minute wriggle with a porn star worth it?
What it’ll probably be like:
They are really terrified that he'll win another election aren't they. Still amazes me what the Bush family and the Clintons got up to and got away with. Its naïve in the extreme to believe that Trump is the first one to do something dodgy. The rest just got away with it. They're all cut from the same cloth.
The prosecution may boost support for his run for the Republican candidacy, but hurt his subsequent chance in the presidential election.
Which I quite like
^^ Ditto.
The problem is that he is consistently underestimated. Plenty of people dismissed the possibility of Trump ever becoming US president.
I guess much would depend who the Democrat candidate will be. Trump was significantly helped by the fact that the Democrats chose Clinton in 2016.
(Unashamedly stolen from Twitter).
If we are doing that. From the daily show.
"Hard to believe that Donald Trump having sex resulted in something worse for him than Don Jr."
^ bravo
Plenty of people are likely to see this as purely politically motivated, which of course is what it is – the fact that the District Attorney is a Democrat isn’t some sort of weird coincidence
Plenty of people are likely to see it that way but it was the grand jury that decided to charge, not the da.
Do you think that if the D.A. had been a Republican we would be in the same place? I believe that it is the D.A. who decides what a grand jury investigates.
No, not at all. Also NY is obviously a pretty liberal place.
The question is… Was a 5 minute wriggle with a porn star worth it?
The detail I'm enjoying is that he's not being indicted for cheating on his wife with a porn star, or the fact that he lied about it and paid her off so he could get elected, it's because he claimed it as a business expense the greedy little turd
Is anyone else wondering what face he's going to go for on the mugshot? A smug '**** you' smile? Or an attempt at stern and presidential?
Or scowl like a petulant adolescent
Do you think that if the D.A. had been a Republican we would be in the same place?
Equally, its highly likely a Republican DA would turn a blind eye to "obvious/flagrant" white collar crime by one of their own...
No one is naive enough to dispute that there's an element political motivation to this but Republicans do this all the time and shrug their shoulder (at most). It's in the Democrat make up to get hung up about shit like this but, frankly, it's karma...he's had this coming for a very long time (and, for the record, he's still innocent until proven guilty............)
It’s in the Democrat make up to get hung up about shit like this
The issue isn't about getting hung up, the issue is the effect it will have on Trump's political ambitions.
Central to Trump's appeal is the claim that he is anti-establishment, and central to this narrative is the claim of deep state left-wing conspiracies.
If you wanted to bolster that narrative hounding him over relatively minor stuff that happened a few years ago would be quite a good way to go about it.
I say relatively minor because it is in comparison to the charges of perjury and obstruction of justice which Bill Clinton faced. And certainly relatively minor in comparison to charges of sedition which he should be facing.
What happened at the United States Capitol should result in Donald Trump's political career being permanently destroyed, and the evidence is overwhelming. So why is he being pursued over minor stuff which could possibly play into his tiny hands?
It will be interesting to watch how he deals with being tried with a female judge.
Will he be able to keep his mouth shut when admonished or fight back and end up inside for an indeterminate stretch due to contempt and an inability to apologise to a woman in charge?
So why is he being pursued over minor stuff which could possibly play into his tiny hands?
the rest of it is in the post i reckon. this is the start. maybe the USA needs to have that serious conversation that the proud boys and the rest of the gravy seals think is their due. maybe this is how it happens.
So why is he being pursued over minor stuff which could possibly play into his tiny hands?
There's at least three different entities pursing him for various misdemeanors. Are you suggesting they should coordinate their actions? The very fact that there isn't such coordination should dispell myths of some great anti-Trump conspiracy 😄
Quite right vlad, It will be quite difficult to characterise the forthcoming case in Georgia relating to election interference as partisan or conspiratorial. It was the Republican Secretary of State (Brad Raffensperger) who blew the whistle.
Are you suggesting.....
Well I thought I was suggesting that he should be prosecuted for something which will end his political career, ie sedition/encouraging insurrection, rather than something which a fair few people believe he might possibly milk for his own benefit.
However for whatever reason the fact that I have to repeatedly make the same point suggests that I have obviously failed.
Still, never mind 😀
Edit: Just to be clear my original comment was made in support of this comment made by someone else:
I’m just not quite sure why this is actually so very naughty. I’d far rather see him brought down for what happened on Jan 6th where people died and democracy was properly threatened. That’s what should be sending him to prison.
I am not in the least bit bothered that he is being pursued over Stormy Daniels payment. However as the story has unfurled it has become clear that quite a few pundits believe that Trump could benefit from the belief that he is being victimised.
It will be quite difficult to characterise the forthcoming case in Georgia relating to election interference as partisan or conspiratorial
Sadly not true or more accurately it should be but it wont be. Any semi sane republican will be accused of being a democrat/radical left/liberal/RINO.
Well I thought I was suggesting that he should be prosecuted for something which will end his political career, ie sedition/encouraging insurrection,
You do realise this is still a thing, don't you? Or if you've learnt that the "authorities" (DOJ?) have definitely dropped any possibility of charging him for something related to Jan 6, please do tell cos I may have missed that...
EDIT: as of a few days ago, DOJ still investigating:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/your-guide-to-all-of-the-investigations-into-trump
"maybe the USA needs to have that serious conversation that the proud boys and the rest of the gravy seals think is their due. maybe this is how it happens."
The sooner the better, it might get a bit messy but if the cosplay militias aren't put firmly back in their box (rectangular if needs be) then things will get far worse in the not too distant future,
The greatest threat to US democracy is morons with machine guns. As I said earlier, without access to military grade equipment ,I don't think the 'reveloutionaries' would have had the confidence to invade the Capitol Building.
You do realise this is still a thing,
Yes I do. I am not suggesting that it is either one or the other. It was with reference to people apparently getting excited with regards to the Stormy Daniels payment allegations.
Read the edit to my previous post for more clarification.
There’s at least three different entities pursing him for various misdemeanors. Are you suggesting they should coordinate their actions? The very fact that there isn’t such coordination should dispell myths of some great anti-Trump conspiracy 😄
You mean they are all coincidence?
nothing coincidental about a high profile law breaker facing multiple charges from all quarters.
You mean they are all coincidence?
Eh? Trump has been involved in multiple court cases for what seems like the entirety of his career. Previously, no one was interested as he didn't have the public profile he does now. So it's nothing unusual for him to be battling various courts for various charges....
It was with reference to people apparently getting excited with regards to the Stormy Daniels payment allegations.
Got it. I, too, would rather he was successfully prosecuted for a "more serious" offence (pref related to Jan 6) but he's such a slippery bastard I'd settle for this* just in case nothing else sticks.
* whatever "this" turns out to be when the actual charges are un-sealed. Hopefully, there's an element of serious tax fraud as well...
nothing coincidental about a high profile law breaker facing multiple charges from all quarters.
So not a coincidence then?
Eh? Trump has been involved in multiple court cases for what seems like the entirety of his career. Previously, no one was interested as he didn’t have the public profile he does now. So it’s nothing unusual for him to be battling various courts for various charges….
Before, because he was not a politician so nobody was interested but now he is trouble?
Therefore, they go all out to get Trump deliberately separately?
To me that sounds like having some sort of coordination. It's Murica you know.
Hopefully, there’s an element of serious tax fraud as well…
Good luck with that coz America is built on it.
To me that sounds like having some sort of coordination. It’s Murica you know.
If you smell some sort of conspiracy, I have no problem with that but I don't care whether there is or isn't (though I'm not the sort of person who's drawn towards conspiracy theories anyway).
Sure, a lot of career-minded individuals in important positions probably realize this may be the moment to make a name for themselves (but that's not unique to Trump)
Makes you think.
https://twitter.com/NickAdamsinUSA/status/1641892473118117901
So why is he being pursued over minor stuff which could possibly play into his tiny hands?
Rumours are that there are almost 30 counts in the idictment. At most there could be about 8 of them related to the Stormy Daniels case so I think they've got a lot more on him than a simple 'avoided tax on a dodgy payment'.
Makes you think
He really is the perfect example of poes law.