remember that most polls also predicted he would lose
Makes sense really. Clinton took 2.1% more of the "popular vote" (around 3 million votes) so if you polled a random selection of voters nationally then it would look like she was most likely to win.
I don't think any of the mainstream polls called it with absolute certaintity - the main trouble is that people are generally not very good with stats!
they know only slightly more about statistics than I do.
Would you accept that Gallup know a [i]bit[/i] about stats and polling?
They currently have him at 40% approval (3% error margin) on their daily poll:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx
Cherry picking is what Trump stands for. Here is what Elijah Cummings said about him.
I have said repeatedly that he could be a great president if … if … he takes steps to truly represent all Americans rather than continuing on the divisive and harmful path he is currently on
And here is what Trump heard.
Well he said, you’ll be the greatest president in the history of, but you know what, I’ll take that also, but that you could be.
Slight difference and also incoherent.
So what do we think is going to happen with North Korea?
Backing the NC's into a corner would be rather stupid, so he's probably going to do that. Lets face it, it's taken the USA some 40 years to try to forget their last painful, expensive and derisive war in Indochina...
So what do we think is going to happen with North Korea?
Provoke them into the first move and then drop lots of bigly bombs on them.
GrahamS - MemberApproval rating at record lows
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GrahamS - MemberWould you accept that Gallup know a bit about stats and polling?
Well, wouldn't you know it. That link takes you to a graph showing Trump's approval rating going up.
i.e. [b]not[/b] at "record lows".
Sigh.
His polls are at record lows for a new president, even when they are 5% above his lowest ever they are still record lows for a new president. Lifting your game to 40 isn't an achievement it just means he hasn't screwed up at the higher end (of what is now an open ended scale) but don't worry he has a spending request and tax plan to drop. That should kick him down a bit more. Or maybe somebody will testify about something Russian.
well not going up, back down to 40 after reaching 42 last week (dropping a really big bomb on some caves is a ratings winner)
his lowest was 35 a month ago his highest was 45% just after inauguration
Trump has the lowest ever for a presidents 1st 100 days though, so hes certainly got that record in the bag , bigly!
Hes the most unpopular president so far
Are we all waiting for the Lock Him Up chants here?
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/25/us/politics/michael-flynn-white-house-documents-russia.html?_r=0
He has been a naughty boy and probably done something illegal, needs to be prosecuted 😉
Then the country kicks back again
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/25/us/judge-blocks-trump-sanctuary-cities.html
A climb down from the non existent wall followed
Three days before the deadline to avert a government shutdown, congressional leaders were negotiating a spending proposal on Tuesday that would supply no money for President Trump’s promised border wall with Mexico but would increase funding for White House priorities like the military and other types of border security.Lawmakers in both parties expressed confidence that a deal could be reached before the lights go out, a prediction that seemed safer as Mr. Trump backed off his demand that the border wall receive funding in this measure.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/25/us/politics/federal-budget-shutdown-congress.html
and still spending needs work.
Who would have thought this was quite so complicated. Imagine if you thought it was going to be just people doing whatever you said and then selling off the bankrupt bits.
I watched the BBC panorama (or was it newsround?) Trump program.
It reminded me of the classic Ferrero Rocher Advert... and the debate about whether that was terrible-on-purpose (and therefore genius), or just plain terrible.
Trump does somewhat remind me of a Ferrero Rocher.
Trump does somewhat remind me of a Ferrero Rocher.
Chopped nuts dipped in cheap chocolate, disguised by a shiny wrapper?
Making promises that they can't deliver on?
Inexplicably popular.
Inexplicably popular.
But not as popular as some might think.
Surveys showed that 106% of people buying Ferrero Rocher were buying Ferrero Rocher.
Tariffs slapped on Canadian timber and Dairy imports. Wonder how he will react if Canada reciprocates.
I think the problem is he's taking all the knowledge he's learned from ruining businesses and applied it to ruining the county.
Meanwhile:
[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39708768 ]Trump backs down on border wall funding.[/url]
Which is a shame as it was going to be beautiful.
On Radio4 just now they were saying that landowners have started receiving letters demanding they sell their land to the government for the wall.
They also said that Trump had backed down on the border wall funding....
On Radio4 just now they were saying that landowners have started receiving letters demanding they sell their land to the government for the wall.They also said that Trump had backed down on the border wall funding....
sending out IOUs in the name of the mexican government 😉
its not so much that he has backed down as they simply refused to fund it so he had to give in,
Sure he will talk it up but , as he has shown already, he struggles to take the party with him and the Democrats will always vote against him
I think he failed to realise he needs to work with people rather than just bully them as he did in business
i think he is slowly discovering he lacks this skill set and he cannot build bridges and until he can he cannot build his wall either.
He absolutely hasn't "backed down" as that BBC News story says:
The president tweeted this morning: "Don't let the fake media tell you that I have changed my position on the WALL. It will get built and help stop drugs, human trafficking etc."
He'll be all over Twitter explain why the whining liberal snowflakes and MSM are trying to prevent him doing the right thing.
He won't take any blame on this: if it is blocked and voted down he can point at a "corrupt" system. It's probably worse for him if it goes ahead!
The only interesting aspect is that some Republicans are publicly against it too - especially those with a large number of Hispanic voters. Or those who think the estimated $21.6bn is a bit more than the $12bn he promised, especially with US citizens, not Mexico, footing the bill.
20bn, pah
the estimated maintenance costs, infrastructure (roads to get the machines there etc) are where its at
whoever gets those contracts will be laughing, I imagine theres a fair few construction magnates eyeing up $200,000 memberships at mar-a-lago asa worthy investment
That projection does not include land-acquisition costs, though the report notes that costs increase when the federal government has had to go to court. (In one case noted in the document, the government paid $4.7 million for a 3.1-acre parcel for which they initially offered $233,000.) The $66.9 billion figure also does not include the cost of border wall maintenance, which the Committee report estimates could be as high as $150 million a year.
slowoldman - MemberMeanwhile:
Trump backs down on border wall funding.
Which is a shame as it was going to be beautiful.
The Democrats sabotage the project what a shame indeed. 😆
Just need to try a different way ... 😛
Huge trump win - you guys think in goals, not systems, you dont analyse the consequences and therefore fail to recognise why Trump is ahead of the game.
If crime doesn't go down - congresses fault, they stopped me building the wall
Immigration up - congresses fault, they stopped me building the wall
Terrorist attack - congresses fault, they stopped me building the wall
Jobs - congresses fault, they stopped me building the wall
Etc.
Democrats sabotage the project
And there we go. Hook, line and sinker.
Just quietly ignore the Republicans that are against it eh?
what a shame indeed.
Indeed. Pesky democracy eh?
Never mind, I'm sure Trump will have a plan for that too.
failure is a huge trump gain...what irrefutable logic that there is surpassed only be chewkw blaming the minority opposition party for the failure to get it passed
Is there no one with a half decent, rather than half baked, suggestion from the al right trollers?
failure is a huge trump gain
I didn't say it was a huge Trump gain, I said it was a huge trump win
If you can't even be trusted to read and understand the first three words in a post, what hope is there that you will ever begin to comprehend and critically analyse the workings of the US political system?
..you guys think in goals, not systems, you dont analyse the consequences and therefore fail...
[i]*goes on to say exactly what I said but in many more words*[/i] 🙄
...If you can't even be trusted to read and understand the first three words in a post...
Set irony to maximum.
Jesus Ninfan you used to be quite good at this...are you not embarrassed by that [ at how rubbish it is not that you did it obvs]
D- see me after class
Trump once again fails to achieve one of his pledges, to be fair apart from his failure to carry out his promises, his unpopularity, his lining his own pockets through mar a lago, his security issues at mar a lago, his inability to understand international politics unless its explained to him repeatedly...etc etc...hes done not too bad. Still a bawbag though.
There's also the slight issue of how a wall would actually work if it got built.
Option 1: You have to build a wall that is physically un-crossable. This is very difficult and hence hugely expensive. I suspect you'd need something several feet thick of re-enforced concrete, and probably something like 30m (100 feet) tall. Anything smaller could be crosses with some ingenuity.
Option 2: You build a physically small wall, that could be crossed, but place suitable armed guards on it to prevent people crossing. No free lunches with this one. Yup, the wall is cheaper, but now you need to monitor ever length of wall, and put in place enough man power to do so. And realistically, are you going to shoot, in cold blood, people trying to cross the wall? How long do you think public support for cold blooded murder would last? And if you are not going to shoot people, then you need to catch then, and either lock them up (costly, difficult, and would require huge prisons to house them) or return them to there country (and next week they'll be back for another attempt.
In fact, assuming you have a higher IQ than a radish, it quite quickly becomes clear that a wall is not only morally bankrupt it's practically flawed as well.........
I suspect you'd need something several feet thick of re-enforced concrete, and probably something like 30m (100 feet) tall. Anything smaller could be crosses with some ingenuity.
Perhaps the ol' US bessie mates in Israel could offer some advice on this.
[img] 
[/img]
^^^ bloody effective against suicide bombers, not sure about economic migrants and drug smugglers. For other examples we could look at the 400km one the Saudis are building to keep out terrorists ?
Trump good to his word on tax, my old seat neighbour Steve Mnuchin lays out the promised tax reforms. Tax cuts for those on $60,000pa and lower, massive simo,ification of tax bands and deductions and the significant slashing of corporate tax from 35% to 15%. US companies have $2.6 trillion in profits sheltered offshore. Its likely these will be repatriated and could spell a massive loss of revenue to tax havens like Luxembourg and Ireland.
Will congress ever pass those rates though.
ninfan and chewkw. Surely the same person eh?
For other examples we could look at the 400km one the Saudis are building to keep out terrorists ?
So really [url= http://ijr.com/2015/01/233628-saudi-arabia-anti-isis-wall/ ]more of a fence[/url] than the "impenetrable, physical, tall, powerful, beautiful wall" that Trump described?
[img] 
[/img]
Beautiful though that is, it mostly relies on manpower.
Still I'm sure there will be plenty of volunteers for the Night's Watch. 😀
So really more of a fence than the "impenetrable, physical, tall, powerful, beautiful wall" that Trump described?
In other shock news, The iron curtain wasn't all made of iron either 😉
So are you saying that something like the Saudi fence [i]is[/i] the actual intended design then ninfan?
Doesn't sound much like the one Donald's campaign speeches to me:
Or his tweets:
[img] 
[/img]
-- https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/636155822326829056?lang=en
Trump good to his word on tax, my old seat neighbour Steve Mnuchin lays out the promised tax reforms. Tax cuts for those on $60,000pa and lower, massive simo,ification of tax bands and deductions and the significant slashing of corporate tax from 35% to 15%. US companies have $2.6 trillion in profits sheltered offshore. Its likely these will be repatriated and could spell a massive loss of revenue to tax havens like Luxembourg and Ireland.
The Committee For Federal Budget Responsibility have calculated that his tax cut will cost $5.5tn over 10 years 😯
unless it goes against what happened after previous cuts-, the tax cuts of bush & regan saw national debt increase, federeal receipts go down and half the growth seen after the clinton tax increases....
also I thought most of the US offshore stash wasnt in luxembourg or ireland........
but British overseas territories like Cayman, BVI, Bhahamas etc
https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/the-worlds-15-biggest-tax-havens/
100 days and do we have a good news story?
Apparently Ivanka got a sales boost in her clothes
Membership of Mar a lago are up and prices are up
The Trump boys are riding the golden ticket
Anything else?
do we have a good news story?
Well Donald finally got a chance to show his softer, loving side with a sincere and touching heartfelt message to Melania on her birthday:
[img] 
[/img]
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/857246245672366081
Just beautiful. Brings a tear to the eye.
You see that is the sort of ground breaking stuff I was on about. Not the failing to deliver policy for a win stuff 😉 maybe he had to tweet is as she won't come to the white house
I love it.... even the photo of his wife is actually mostly a photo of him 🙂
Ah got to love the NYT has almost gone ah f it lets just have some fun.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/26/upshot/winners-and-losers-in-the-trump-tax-plan.html
Full text in link but
Winners? Businesses with high tax rates. The plan would cut the 35 percent corporate income tax to 15 percent. While few businesses pay the full 35 percent rate, those that pay something close to it are in line for a huge tax cut.
? High-income earners. The plan would reduce the top rate on individual income tax — now 39.6 percent for income over around $470,000 for a married couple — to 35 percent. But that’s only part of the gain for high-income earners. It also would eliminate a 3.8 percent tax, used to help fund Obamacare, that applies to investment income over $250,000 for a couple.
? People with creative accountants. The 15 percent business tax rate could open a huge loophole for people to receive business income through a limited liability company or other pass-through entity instead of as wages.
? Multimillionaires who want to pass money to their heirs tax-free. The plan would eliminate the estate tax, which currently applies to individuals with estates of $5.5 million or couples with estates worth $11 million.
? People who still fill out their tax returns by hand. Administration officials said the plan would simplify paying taxes, particularly emphasizing plans to eliminate the alternative minimum tax. The A.M.T. can definitely be annoying, and costly, but if you use an online tax preparation service, the software does most of the work.
? Retailers and other companies that feared a “border adjustment tax.”
? Donald J. Trump. It is striking how many of the categories listed above affect the president and his family. He is a high-income earner. He receives income from 564 business entities, according to his financial disclosure form, and could take advantage of the low rate on “pass-through” companies. According to his leaked 2005 tax return, he paid an extra $31 million because of the alternative minimum tax that he seeks to eliminate. And his heirs could eventually enjoy his enormous assets tax-free.
Losers? Upper-middle-income people in blue states. The plan would eliminate the federal tax deduction for state and local income tax. If you are in a place where such taxes are high, like New York or California, you would lose a valuable deduction.
? Deficit hawks. The Trump plan doesn’t come with any estimates of its impact on the federal deficit. But his campaign plan, to which the new document is distinctly similar, was estimated by the analysts at the Tax Policy Center to reduce federal revenue by $6.2 trillion over a decade. That implies either a very large increase in the national debt or huge reductions in federal spending.
? People who want Congress to pass something. While the Trump plan solves some of the policy contradictions of his earlier promises with a “candy for everyone” approach to cutting taxes, that leaves it with even bigger political contradictions.
Good job there is a good salesman in there and a crack negotiator.
So he's not going to withdraw from NAFTA, after all, let me guess, its democrats/Mexicans/msm fault he didn't fulfill this pledge
