[Closed] Brexit - will it actually happen?

yep

Nope.

Maybe

Dunno.

A balanced debate so far 😀

52% vs 48% is not enough of a majority for a clear mandate, plus Tory party donors (which include businesses, banks and farmers) will be going absolutely ape-shit right now at the prospect of loss of trade and subsidy. A fundraiser for any local Tory group south of the Midlands is going to be a somewhat sparse affair right now.

Legally, the referendum carries about as much weight as the petition to name a ship 'Boaty McBoatface', any moral argument to observe the referendum result is tarnished by the Leave campaign's stunning backtrack on key pledges less than 24 hours after the vote.

The Lords are predominantly pro-EU, so I believe. If a new PM enacts Article 50 then there may well be challenges from across both Houses, not to mention private legal challenges from businesses.

[ninja edit] This is based on feedback from a couple of armchair experts, my local MP and some reading between lines. Your actual mileage (kilometerage?) may vary. I'm off tomorrow to London to wave placards and shout a lot.

Gove has promised to do it. May said she'd do it. So seems quite likely, if they are telling the truth.

Can they be forced to put it to the commons?

If there is a GE then it seems likely a Tory candidate would promise to pull the plug to poach the large numbers of Labour voters who want out. Even if most of them have changed their minds, it seems likely they would have enough left over to swing the vote.

Same is true for individual Tory MPs - they might pledge to vote for Brexit in the commons to win seats.

We WILL be leaving the EU.

It will cost us in every possible way… wages, pensions, jobs, debt… you name it.

But it will happen. The Conservatives have to make it happen after the referendum vote, or their next GE will be a disaster. We all now have to suffer to keep their party in one piece, and in power. Suck it up and feel the pain.

Hopefully not.

The referendum was an undemocratic farce and we shouldn't stand by its result.

Whatevs....

in a few years the following will be in place....

A) Britain will be paying the same amount into EU coffers, minus the rebate, as the price for access to the european market
B) The free movement of people, and thus immigration will remain unchanged, as the price for access to the european market
C) We will still have to accept all EU rules, regulations and 'red tape', as the price for access to the european market
D) We will have no say whasoever in EU decision making any more.

All in all, a complete and utter monumental cluster****!

I'd bet money on Article 50 not being implemented, [url= http://www.legalbusiness.co.uk/index.php/lb-blog-view/6793-devereux-chambers-barrister-raises-10-000-in-crowdfunder-to-bring-case-to-prevent-brexit ]Here's my reason why[/url]

Can they be forced to put it to the commons?

No

Gove has promised to do it. May said she'd do it. So seems quite likely, if they are telling the truth.

I'm wondering what do all 5 Tory candidates see that they can do to take this forward? What are they reading between the lines? Or are they just hell bent power monkeys (probably yes, regardless)

The Conservatives have to make it happen after the referendum vote, or their next GE will be a disaster

Not necessarily - the opposition cannot muster a full Shadow Cabinet during the biggest constitutional crisis since the war. Also, notice how quickly the pre vote pro-leave media changed it's tune the following Monday morning.

The advisory referendum vote was inconclusive at best. The leave campaigners seem to distancing themselves rather than stepping up. Politicians should now be brave and make some tough decisions on what is for the best rather than marching on but I suspect they will just carry on as anything else will likely be career ending and history has shown they generally tend to put themselves first

Moves afoot to stop it;

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/30/second-eu-referendum-pull-us-out-of-fire-make-happen?CMP=fb_gu

Worth a letter to your local MP I'd have said

mefty >>

Can they be forced to put it to the commons?

No

As I understand it the invocation of Article 50 and repeal of the 1972 EC Act will have to be approved by a commons vote. What do you know that is different?

As I understand it the invocation of Article 50 and repeal of the 1972 EC Act will have to be approved by a commons vote. What do you know that is different?

That ex government lawyers say that is a creative but incorrect argument and it can be done under PM's prerogative.

Worth a letter to your local MP I'd have said

My MP is a rabidly anti-EU, foreigner hating, hang 'em and flog 'em, homophobic racist. Receiving letters asking him to help stop Brexit would doubtless have him laughing liken a Bond Villain 😥

Has the bloody mess that has resulted from our leave vote dampened the Outers on the continent?

if only there were a dedicated thread for this sort of thing.

me me me me me me me.

Pulls up chair, opens huge box of popcorn ready for long wait.

If it doesn't, where does that leave democracy?

Don't be fooled into thinking that all leave voters voted that way because of anything Gove or Boris or ****face Farage said...

My MP is a rabidly anti-EU, foreigner hating, hang 'em and flog 'em, homophobic racist.

No - refuse to believe we will go through with it and collectively step on our dicks in such epic fashion. Especially as there's so much monied interest involved, as mentioned.

Referenda are for rubber stamping constitutional matters where opinion is overwhelmingly in favour of the outcome. Not as a policy instrument for deciding 50/50s - that is the path of idiocracy.

Legally seems to me there is plenty of scope to not pull the trigger of the Art50 gun that's pointing at our foot (imho)

Morally - irrespective of the quality of campaign, the lies told by both sides, and the buyer's remorse the day after, the vote itself was properly conducted and counted and therefore democratically, there's an obligation in my eyes to make it happen [i]unless[/i] something materially changes substantially that justifies a second referendum.

I guess the question is what place morals?

Idle thought - i wonder how many of the people shouting about morals have ever wriggled out of a parking fine or speeding points over a technicality when morally they know they overstayed and deserve what they got?

If it doesn't, where does that leave democracy?

Where does it leave democracy if 47 million people (population minus those who voted to leave) are taken out of the EU, with no chance of future repeal?

Democracy is the ability to change something if you're not happy with it. We won't be able to change the exit from the EU.

mefty >> That ex government lawyers say that is a creative but incorrect argument and it can be done under PM's prerogative.

Is that the same ex government lawyer(s) who says:

Just because, on my analysis, the Prime Minister can trigger Article 50 without reference to Parliament, it does not follow that that would be a wise or sensible thing to do.

[url= https://publiclawforeveryone.com/2016/06/30/brexit-on-why-as-a-matter-of-law-triggering-article-50-does-not-require-parliament-to-legislate/ ]https://publiclawforeveryone.com/2016/06/30/brexit-on-why-as-a-matter-of-law-triggering-article-50-does-not-require-parliament-to-legislate/[/url]

I would imagine the PM would want to invoke A50 with the backing of Parliament, regardless of legal processes

Gove has promised to do it. May said she'd do it. So seems quite likely, if they are telling the truth.

I don't trust a word any of these idiots say. They'll say whatever it takes to achieve whatever hidden goal they have. It's what happened throughout the Leave campaign.

Maybe the more the public are convinced the May/Gove want to leave, the more the public will believe them when the come back and say (whilst making closed fists, and pointing with their thumbs):

"Look. Let me absolutely clear about this. We really really want to leave, honest, but now is not the right time. We need to improve our economy so we can bargain from a stronger position. We will leave, but when the time is right for the UK, not because the EU want to kick us out as punishment" ... or some such nonsense.

"We really really want to leave, honest, but now is not the right time, we need to improve our economy so we can bargain from a stronger position. We will leave, but when the time is right for the UK, not because the EU want to kick us out as punishment" ... or some such nonsense.

Exactly this, because at this point whomever ends up in the PM's seat will take the course of action that gives the best chance of remaining in power after the next election. Lets not be fooled into thinking this has anything to do with what the public wants.

This seems to put the UK in the position where it has to jump, then ask how far down is the landing and how soft is it?

It's been stated by an EU trade official that negotiation on this cannot start until the UK has formally left. Apparently because in the 2 years after Article 50, the UK is in the EU and therefore can't negotiate a trade deal with the EU, due to EU laws....

That's some catch, that catch 50

If it doesn't, where does that leave democracy?

Look - democracy is a tool for governing a country. Hammers are good tools for knocking in nails, but that doesn't make it a good thing if I go round smashing every window in sight.

In other words - it can be mis-used. Pretty clear that this is a blatant mis-use of a democratic tool for political gain. Yes, people are unhappy, and people want their problems solved. No way is this the solution. It's bonkers.

[comic digression]

whilst making closed fists, and pointing with their thumbs

I think this is the result of a Commons drinking game that has got out of hand. No pointing, left handed drinking only, no mentioning of the word 'drink'. I wonder who the thumb master is...

[/comic digression]

Is that the same ex government lawyer(s) who says

No it is Carl Gardner, see [url= http://www.headoflegal.com/ ]here[/url]. The reason I give more weight to his view that the many academics who have come up with arguments is that he has been a day-to-day practitioner advising government on these matters in a senior capacity.

I think it will happen but we will likely join the EEA. Which will annoy the 48% because we left the EU proper and will annoy the 52% because we didn't return to the age of steam trains and spitfires. So basically everyone will be unhappy, it's the British way.

Where does it leave democracy if 47 million people (population minus those who voted to leave) are taken out of the EU, with no chance of future repeal?

Democracy is the ability to change something if you're not happy with it. We won't be able to change the exit from the EU.

Well quite frankly, the people who didn't bother their backside voting can take what they're given. You sound like you're in favour of democracy, but only when the result is favourable to you.

binners - Member
Whatevs....

in a few years the following will be in place....

A) Britain will be paying the same amount into EU coffers, minus the rebate, as the price for access to the european market
B) The free movement of people, and thus immigration will remain unchanged, as the price for access to the european market
C) We will still have to accept all EU rules, regulations and 'red tape', as the price for access to the european market
D) We will have no say whasoever in EU decision making any more.

All in all, a complete and utter monumental cluster****!

My political koweledge is slim to **** all, but I really hope we don't go though with it, I expect binners is spot on though 🙁

Someone posted [url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-uk-leaves-the-eu-36671629 ]this[/url] on one of the other threads yesterday, explains a couple of things.

We gain a new cliché - instead of "turkeys voting for Christmas" we now have "Brits voting for Brexit".

Oops double post

Perfectly summarised muppetWrangler 😀

P.S and I am almost looking forward to when France stop guarding the border at Calais, see how you like that !

I saw the local regional MP interviewed the other day, he was jumping for joy at getting that job off his books.

My political koweledge is slim to * all, but I really hope we don't go though with it, I expect binners is spot on though

If you're looking for a silver lining, just imagine how *ing blood-boilingly angry Farage and his racist chums are going to be? 😆

Worth a letter to your local MP I'd have said

My local MP is Boris Johnson 😳

Research suggests 1.2 million bregrexitters would change their minds in a second referendum, apparently.

My local MP is a liar, a hypocrite and supports Gove.

Something IS going to happen, unless Brexit somehow causes a tidal wave to destroy a small city or major town in the UK something IS going to happen.

Whether this involves us pushing article 50, I don't know, but it probably will.

The things is, this isn't some IN/OUT argument that the referendum promised – whatever happens we need to have some sort of agreement with Europe – unless we fancy being in either a defacto trade embargo with Europe and the rest of the world, as our existing trade agreements with the rest of the world are EU ones and other countries won’t accept them just for little old us as we don’t have the leverage, they can also take years, even decades to thrash out – we might as well start digging up out gardens to grow crops now if we do that.

Policy makers will try to find an agreement that lets the maximum amount of voters feel they can say “told you so” to people who voted the other way.

The EEA looks a pretty shit deal to me, whichever way you cut it, either per capita or as a % of GDP it’s going to cost roughly what it costs us now to access it (forget the £350m a week bullshit) and comes with free movement of workers, but who knows – Leave was based a web of lies, it actually solves some of their problems – the total payment falls, and we “take control” even if it means we lose any input into the EU (so no more MEPs).

I suspect the close result, post vote fall out, the change in leader and the number of voters claiming to have changed their mind will be enough for someone to cut a ‘new deal’ with the EU and we might just remain with some concessions to immigration and spending.

But as so many people said before the vote, The UK has been left looking pretty grubby after last week.

Research suggests 1.2 million bregrexitters would change their minds, apparently.

But bizarrely only 30% want another referendum compared to 60% (rough numbers) who don't.

My local MP is a liar, a hypocrite and supports Gove.

2 out of 3 for me.

Research suggests 1.2 million bregrexitters would change their minds, apparently.
But bizarrely only 30% want another referendum compared to 60% (rough numbers) who don't.

Total

Polls? As if they have credibility.. we need a referendum on having a 2nd referendum

Well quite frankly, the people who didn't bother their backside voting can take what they're given. You sound like you're in favour of democracy, but only when the result is favourable to you.

Not at all. If the result was by a larger margin, I'd more than accept the result. However, it's not just about those who "didn't bother their backside voting", it's also about those who currently aren't eligible to vote: The vast majority of which, it would appear, are in favour of staying in Europe and will have no hope of repeal in the future.

For a start, their should be a much larger majority required to exact such a change, such as 2/3 or 3/4

In addition, 52:48 is not a clear mandate by any stretch of the imagination, especially given the large number of leave voters who have since said they would change their minds if the vote was repeated, due to the inaccuracies of the vote leave campaign. We even have the very campaigners back-tracking on the alleged promises.

General elections can be repealed over time. This can't. If this is democracy, then something has gone horribly wrong, somewhere.

Ta mefty

Yes.

Our future is bright outisde the EU, refocusing on the rest of the world and away from the stagnant EU. The sooner we can do the better as it cannot be too longer before the eurozone debt crises returns to the fore,

The only thing that will stop this is a wave of Eurosceptism in Europe whuch translates to major reform in the areas of free movement, repatiration of powers back to members, reduction of the EU budget and possibly the restructuring of the euro. This is not such a remote possibility nkw with Austra, France and Germany all having elections. There is a scenario that after triggering Article 50 the EU has a major roll-back before the 2 year period expires. At that point there could be another referendum, a very slim chance but not zero.

Research suggests

Clutching at straws. "Research" and "suggests" 😀 😀 😀

Remainers can occupy themselves with that for years on social media

Brexit - will it actually happen?

Is really, the wrong question to be asking STW. We (as a community) voted overwhelmingly to remain.

In addition, 52:48 is not a clear mandate by any stretch of the imagination

This is my big sticking point too. The referendum has pretty much divided the (voting) country so whatever the outcome half of the UK is likely to be pretty annoyed*.

Can more knowledgeable people explain or make reference to other voting/ election/ referendum scenarios in the past where this is or isn't enough of a difference to effect a change to give some context?

* to put it mildly

recent scottish and welsh ref required a simple majority as did joining EU

70's scottish leave vote required 66% [ iirc- certainly above a simply majority or was it over 50% of the entire electorate] and got a simple majority but not enough to leave
This ref was not exceptional

However Nigel said 52-48 meant he would not have gone away so its unlikely the losers will this time

Clutching at straws

Our future is bright outisde the EU, refocusing on the rest of the world and away from the stagnant EU.

Back to your best efforts now the joy has worn off

Daffy >>

Brexit - will it actually happen?

Is really, the wrong question to be asking STW. We (as a community) voted overwhelmingly to remain.

It currently looks likely to happen regardless of what the majority of STW thinks*, therefore I'm not sure of your point?

*in your opinion

Can more knowledgeable people explain or make reference to other voting/ election/ referendum scenarios in the past where this is or isn't enough of a difference to effect a change to give some context?

I believe, although I don't have the figures to hand, that most Countries in Europe have rules that require much larger majorities for votes of this nature i.e 2/3 or 3/4 majorities etc.

A minority of the population voted for leaving, without even knowing what the alternative was. That's not going to swing it.

Junkyard >> recent scottish and welsh ref required a simple majority as did joining EU

That doesn't make those right either. For large, irreversible constitutional change a 50+1 majority seems lunacy to me

Our future is bright outisde the EU

Dmorts + 1

my money's on it taking so long to sort out, the demographic who voted to leave will have either died of old age or have no recollection of the vote, so the whole thing can be quietly dropped.

Increasingly unlikely

In the time taken to trigger and execute A50, Europe, the UK and the world will have changed significantly. The folly of the € will be exposed but, and its a BIG BUT, other efforts will be made to ensure that the core single market remains in place. Cue compromises galore.

All this chaos will have been unnecessary. At least I hope so, if nothing else to ensure that the events of 100 years ago today are not repeated.

dmorts - Member
It currently looks likely to happen regardless of what the majority of STW thinks*, therefore I'm not sure of your point?

*in your opinion

Not in my opinion - [url= http://singletrackworld.com/pollsarchive/?poll_page=2 ]Link to STW Poll on the Referendum[/url]

My point was, most people on here never wanted Brexit in the first place and are still firmly entrenched in the denial/aggression phase of the change cycle - thus, you're unlikely to get a balanced answer.

I'm a devout Remainer, but that's not going to change the result. I'm nore of a "what's next?" mentality. We can't ignore the outcome and under the rules it will happen. BUT, we can change the game with a general election and a vote for a party committed to keeping us in Europe - The Lib Dems.

*deleted in light of an edit by Daffy*

Can more knowledgeable people explain or make reference to other voting/ election/ referendum scenarios in the past where this is or isn't enough of a difference to effect a change to give some context?

Most recently last-July Greece held one, they could agree to harsh economic austerity policies demanded by the EU for a bail out, or be forced out of the EU. The Public voted 61-39 to leave, but their government decided it would be a disaster so they stayed, but they had to agree to even harsher rules.

It was a bit lost in the news as the banks were all falling at the time but In 2008 Ireland held a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty and 53-47 voted against it, the treaty needed all EU member states to vote for it, for it to pass - so they went back to vote in 2009 and it passed with 67%.

There have been other referendums on smaller matters that have been 'ignored' in the past.

They’re not legally binding, they’re meant to give the Government a very clear idea of the thoughts of the public, more accurate than a pole and supposedly free from sway by external influences like a biased media or scare mongering.

I’ve read it’s still got to pass the Commons, once we’ve found some leaders with spine and then the lords.

OP no, but there will be one helluva renegotiation on our involvement and the trade deals we do with other EU members.

Jambalaya is living in a dream world of EDL supporters, who have proven their opinions to which the educated despise.

Huh, didn't know the poll history was on here.

The 'where do you live' one is interesting, looks like STW is less English than the UK, similarly Welsh, much less Northern Irish and quite a bit more Scottish. Huh.

Sorry for the crafty edit, I realised I hadn't addressed your point after submitting...I do this with e-mail attachments all the time - "please find attached...*ah, crap!*"

Probably not. Maybe. Depending...

Most recently last-July Greece held one

But what do the Greeks know about democracy?

Switzerland had a referendum to end freedom of movement in 2014, which can only be done by exiting the EEA.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26108597

They still haven't done it.

Daffy >> We can't ignore the outcome and under the rules it will happen

There are no such rules. If there were I wouldn't be asking the initial question 🙂

we can change the game with a general election and a vote for a party committed to keeping us in Europe - The Lib Dems.

+1

Keep saying it!

But what do the Greeks know about democracy?