[Closed] Brexit - will it actually happen?

My local MP is a liar, a hypocrite and supports Gove.

Something IS going to happen, unless Brexit somehow causes a tidal wave to destroy a small city or major town in the UK something IS going to happen.

Whether this involves us pushing article 50, I don't know, but it probably will.

The things is, this isn't some IN/OUT argument that the referendum promised – whatever happens we need to have some sort of agreement with Europe – unless we fancy being in either a defacto trade embargo with Europe and the rest of the world, as our existing trade agreements with the rest of the world are EU ones and other countries won’t accept them just for little old us as we don’t have the leverage, they can also take years, even decades to thrash out – we might as well start digging up out gardens to grow crops now if we do that.

Policy makers will try to find an agreement that lets the maximum amount of voters feel they can say “told you so” to people who voted the other way.

The EEA looks a pretty shit deal to me, whichever way you cut it, either per capita or as a % of GDP it’s going to cost roughly what it costs us now to access it (forget the £350m a week bullshit) and comes with free movement of workers, but who knows – Leave was based a web of lies, it actually solves some of their problems – the total payment falls, and we “take control” even if it means we lose any input into the EU (so no more MEPs).

I suspect the close result, post vote fall out, the change in leader and the number of voters claiming to have changed their mind will be enough for someone to cut a ‘new deal’ with the EU and we might just remain with some concessions to immigration and spending.

But as so many people said before the vote, The UK has been left looking pretty grubby after last week.

Research suggests 1.2 million bregrexitters would change their minds, apparently.

But bizarrely only 30% want another referendum compared to 60% (rough numbers) who don't.

My local MP is a liar, a hypocrite and supports Gove.

2 out of 3 for me.

Research suggests 1.2 million bregrexitters would change their minds, apparently.
But bizarrely only 30% want another referendum compared to 60% (rough numbers) who don't.

Total

Polls? As if they have credibility.. we need a referendum on having a 2nd referendum

Well quite frankly, the people who didn't bother their backside voting can take what they're given. You sound like you're in favour of democracy, but only when the result is favourable to you.

Not at all. If the result was by a larger margin, I'd more than accept the result. However, it's not just about those who "didn't bother their backside voting", it's also about those who currently aren't eligible to vote: The vast majority of which, it would appear, are in favour of staying in Europe and will have no hope of repeal in the future.

For a start, their should be a much larger majority required to exact such a change, such as 2/3 or 3/4

In addition, 52:48 is not a clear mandate by any stretch of the imagination, especially given the large number of leave voters who have since said they would change their minds if the vote was repeated, due to the inaccuracies of the vote leave campaign. We even have the very campaigners back-tracking on the alleged promises.

General elections can be repealed over time. This can't. If this is democracy, then something has gone horribly wrong, somewhere.

Ta mefty

Yes.

Our future is bright outisde the EU, refocusing on the rest of the world and away from the stagnant EU. The sooner we can do the better as it cannot be too longer before the eurozone debt crises returns to the fore,

The only thing that will stop this is a wave of Eurosceptism in Europe whuch translates to major reform in the areas of free movement, repatiration of powers back to members, reduction of the EU budget and possibly the restructuring of the euro. This is not such a remote possibility nkw with Austra, France and Germany all having elections. There is a scenario that after triggering Article 50 the EU has a major roll-back before the 2 year period expires. At that point there could be another referendum, a very slim chance but not zero.

Research suggests

Clutching at straws. "Research" and "suggests" 😀 😀 😀

Remainers can occupy themselves with that for years on social media

Brexit - will it actually happen?

Is really, the wrong question to be asking STW. We (as a community) voted overwhelmingly to remain.

In addition, 52:48 is not a clear mandate by any stretch of the imagination

This is my big sticking point too. The referendum has pretty much divided the (voting) country so whatever the outcome half of the UK is likely to be pretty annoyed*.

Can more knowledgeable people explain or make reference to other voting/ election/ referendum scenarios in the past where this is or isn't enough of a difference to effect a change to give some context?

* to put it mildly

recent scottish and welsh ref required a simple majority as did joining EU

70's scottish leave vote required 66% [ iirc- certainly above a simply majority or was it over 50% of the entire electorate] and got a simple majority but not enough to leave
This ref was not exceptional

However Nigel said 52-48 meant he would not have gone away so its unlikely the losers will this time

Clutching at straws

Our future is bright outisde the EU, refocusing on the rest of the world and away from the stagnant EU.

Back to your best efforts now the joy has worn off

Daffy >>

Brexit - will it actually happen?

Is really, the wrong question to be asking STW. We (as a community) voted overwhelmingly to remain.

It currently looks likely to happen regardless of what the majority of STW thinks*, therefore I'm not sure of your point?

*in your opinion

Can more knowledgeable people explain or make reference to other voting/ election/ referendum scenarios in the past where this is or isn't enough of a difference to effect a change to give some context?

I believe, although I don't have the figures to hand, that most Countries in Europe have rules that require much larger majorities for votes of this nature i.e 2/3 or 3/4 majorities etc.

A minority of the population voted for leaving, without even knowing what the alternative was. That's not going to swing it.

Junkyard >> recent scottish and welsh ref required a simple majority as did joining EU

That doesn't make those right either. For large, irreversible constitutional change a 50+1 majority seems lunacy to me

Our future is bright outisde the EU

Dmorts + 1

my money's on it taking so long to sort out, the demographic who voted to leave will have either died of old age or have no recollection of the vote, so the whole thing can be quietly dropped.

Increasingly unlikely

In the time taken to trigger and execute A50, Europe, the UK and the world will have changed significantly. The folly of the € will be exposed but, and its a BIG BUT, other efforts will be made to ensure that the core single market remains in place. Cue compromises galore.

All this chaos will have been unnecessary. At least I hope so, if nothing else to ensure that the events of 100 years ago today are not repeated.

dmorts - Member
It currently looks likely to happen regardless of what the majority of STW thinks*, therefore I'm not sure of your point?

*in your opinion

Not in my opinion - [url= http://singletrackworld.com/pollsarchive/?poll_page=2 ]Link to STW Poll on the Referendum[/url]

My point was, most people on here never wanted Brexit in the first place and are still firmly entrenched in the denial/aggression phase of the change cycle - thus, you're unlikely to get a balanced answer.

I'm a devout Remainer, but that's not going to change the result. I'm nore of a "what's next?" mentality. We can't ignore the outcome and under the rules it will happen. BUT, we can change the game with a general election and a vote for a party committed to keeping us in Europe - The Lib Dems.

*deleted in light of an edit by Daffy*

Can more knowledgeable people explain or make reference to other voting/ election/ referendum scenarios in the past where this is or isn't enough of a difference to effect a change to give some context?

Most recently last-July Greece held one, they could agree to harsh economic austerity policies demanded by the EU for a bail out, or be forced out of the EU. The Public voted 61-39 to leave, but their government decided it would be a disaster so they stayed, but they had to agree to even harsher rules.

It was a bit lost in the news as the banks were all falling at the time but In 2008 Ireland held a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty and 53-47 voted against it, the treaty needed all EU member states to vote for it, for it to pass - so they went back to vote in 2009 and it passed with 67%.

There have been other referendums on smaller matters that have been 'ignored' in the past.

They’re not legally binding, they’re meant to give the Government a very clear idea of the thoughts of the public, more accurate than a pole and supposedly free from sway by external influences like a biased media or scare mongering.

I’ve read it’s still got to pass the Commons, once we’ve found some leaders with spine and then the lords.

OP no, but there will be one helluva renegotiation on our involvement and the trade deals we do with other EU members.

Jambalaya is living in a dream world of EDL supporters, who have proven their opinions to which the educated despise.

Huh, didn't know the poll history was on here.

The 'where do you live' one is interesting, looks like STW is less English than the UK, similarly Welsh, much less Northern Irish and quite a bit more Scottish. Huh.

Sorry for the crafty edit, I realised I hadn't addressed your point after submitting...I do this with e-mail attachments all the time - "please find attached...*ah, crap!*"

Probably not. Maybe. Depending...

Most recently last-July Greece held one

But what do the Greeks know about democracy?

Switzerland had a referendum to end freedom of movement in 2014, which can only be done by exiting the EEA.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26108597

They still haven't done it.

Daffy >> We can't ignore the outcome and under the rules it will happen

There are no such rules. If there were I wouldn't be asking the initial question 🙂

we can change the game with a general election and a vote for a party committed to keeping us in Europe - The Lib Dems.

+1

Keep saying it!

But what do the Greeks know about democracy?

I work for a Norwegian company and this is exactly what my colleagues described their situations as...they think we are mad for wanting to leave!!

 

Here's a question:

Can Norway make trade deals with other countries outside of the EU?

If so, that's a plus in favour of Brexit to a Norway style agreement.

Dorset_Knob - Member
we can change the game with a general election and a vote for a party committed to keeping us in Europe - The Lib Dems.
+1

Keep saying it!

Remain lost [b]not[/b] because of any racist or uneducated lables applied to Leavers, but because Remainers failed to show the benefits of the EU. By continually focusing on the negatives of leaving until people thought "yes, it'll be bad, but..." [b]we[/b] failed to give people what they needed/wanted to hear. Hope.

[b]We[/b] failed, Remainers failed the country - I'll be damned if in the next General Election [b]we[/b] let it happen again.

[b]We[/b] can change the future by learning from the past.

I don't think that's true, I think it's just that the benefits of staying in are more boring and ordinary than the free money, all problems ever will be fixed approach from coming out.

It's like the IT department at work; you don't even notice them, what they do is pretty humdrum, they're normally one of the first places to get cut in hard times, but you'd be buggered without them.

Can Norway make trade deals with other countries outside of the EU?

If so, that's a plus in favour of Brexit to a Norway style agreement.

Is it?

Are the EU agreements worse than those that UK would realistically get?

Can Norway make trade deals with other countries outside of the EU?

It seems so.
http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/what-would-a-norway-style-relationship-with-the-eu-entail/

Might be an option. Join EEA, increase trade elsewhere. Leave properly when we're in a better position (or re-join when todays youth are old enough to vote)

molgrips >> Is it?

Are the EU agreements worse than those that UK would realistically get?

They might be arranged a lot quicker (no need for agreement of 28 entities for example) and the UK could have the advantage that it has an agreement in place while competitors in the EU don't

I really don't know.

But if I had to guess I'd say no, just because it's gonna be so hard to push the button and I think there's probably more will to find a solution than is being communicated ATM.

Meanwhile, the Lib Dems? Seriously? After their coalition with the Tories? **** them, they deserve their obscurity.

Meanwhile, the Lib Dems? Seriously? After their coalition with the Tories? **** them, they deserve their obscurity.

I think we have seen, since the last election, just how much of a brake they were on what the Tories really wanted to do. I would certainly consider voting for them again, especially given the mess the two main parties are in.

The Lib Dems actually did quite a good job in reigning in the more outlandish/right wing side of the conservative policies, I'd be surprised if they did not make a decent comeback next election

edit : doh!...too late