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Tho just realising that this is from the Adam Smith Institute – does that devalue? tho they are not posting any solution.
The chart misses out both the effects of the financial crash and COVID-19 with the predicted curve, so a bit worthless to be honest.
Hi – I know I started this thread but I kind of lost interest after the first couple fo hundred replies failed to find and actual benefits.
Have I missed any since?
No.
In spite of all the evidence we’re still in the territory of trying to save ‘face’ on behalf of people who voted for stupidity.
Unfortunately, 'face' is the life-blood of a democratic government. It shouldn't be, but it is. Any government that loses face loses power.
Any government that loses face loses power.
I would argue that the government loses face by having to pander to stupidity.
But, meh. We are where we are. Unless a government calls Brexit out for what it was/is, we're stuck with it.
I agree that we don't want to lose years of parliamentary time on this whilst there's loads of other structural things to fix.
But that's why I would just unilaterally announce that we are joining the EU, say that it is primarily an administrative problem now, let the civil servants deal with the nuts and bolts and only defer to the government for key yes/no questions.
<shrugs>
So to save face the government condemns the UK to further economic woes and decline?
I agree that we don’t want to lose years of parliamentary time on this whilst there’s loads of other structural things to fix.
Until we rejoin then the fixes are beyond us
So to save face the government condemns the UK to further economic woes and decline?
Yes. Starmer hasn't got the minerals for this, I'm afraid.
Until we rejoin then the fixes are beyond us
Not all of them. And there's plenty where a fix outside of the EU is still a step in the right direction.
This is precisely why I'd just start the joining process now, unilaterally, and outsource most of the work to the civil service.
<shrugs>
I would argue that the government loses face by having to pander to stupidity.
It'll gain more votes from those who are stupid than it will lose from those who aren't. Because there are vastly more stupid people than intelligent ones.
Until we rejoin then the fixes are beyond us
No, they're not. Sure, there are many advantages to being in, but we can still fix things whilst we are out. The political climate and lack of political education in the UK is a MUCH bigger problem than being out of the EU.
Plus, rejoining is just not happening any time soon, so you need to get used to it. The fallout from the vote cost us years of frozen government which arguably led to the deadlock we are in now. Not being out - but the political crisis that it caused. Rejoining would cause another one, wether you like that idea or not.
"It's a simple fact" as you would say, TJ.
Posted this link upthread, but I was looking at the whole twitter thread, not just the first tweet (but didn't make that clear), looking at comparison to similar economies, showing how far the UK has slipped in performance, and we have all slipped in standard of living etc.
And the point being if we want to raise living standards, and tax revenue to fix the broken country we are all living in, the only way has to be to rejoin
https://twitter.com/sam_bidwell/status/1832062722412015803
Molgrips
Rejoin could be done in a year with political will
Where are we going to get the trade from to replace what is lost due to brexit?
How do we get the lost growth back?
Open your eyes man and stop letting yourself be gaslit
Open your eyes man and stop letting yourself be gaslit
That's a bit unnecessarily confrontational.
I agree with you except the notion that nothing can be improved without (re)join. Some bits can. Nowhere near as much as could be sorted by a simple (re)join, but some.
But let's face it - Brexit was a mortal shock to anyone who assumed the UK electorate was intelligent, logical, open-minded etc. Decent politicians have been reeling ever since.
Rejoin could be done in a year with political will
The amount of time it would take to rejoin seems to be increasing exponentially according to many on here.
By this time next year I fully expect the STW consensus to be that it will not be possible to rejoin the EU this century.
In two years it will not be possible to rejoin before the end of the millennia.
I can't remember if this has been covered before in this thread
https://twitter.com/TerraOrBust/status/1792984037063082283
He says that they are 'fully evidenced and demonstrably true' which is probably correct in that these things have happened and he has provided references. Many of them are debatably 'benefits' - the ability to create more plastic pollution without penalty for instance would not be considered beneficial by a majority of the UK public, I think. He also appears to be saying that the removal of trade barriers is a benefit when those barriers only appeared because we lost the protection of the EU agreements. There is also no attempt to weigh the value of the 'benefits' against the cost of the disbenefits. So on first glance it doesn't look very persuasive.
[edit] I see a previous list by the same author was discussed on page 20 [/edit]
That’s a bit unnecessarily confrontational.
apologies. I get so frustrated with this when folk repeat the gaslighting from labour as if its fact when its obvious nonsense
Nowhere near as much as could be sorted by a simple (re)join, but some.
I guess so but its like trying to climb a tree with one hand behind your back and your shoelaces tied together
I am also guessing some of you have not seen the devastation brexit has caused
Well I just learnt from that list that apparently adding VAT to private school fees would not have been possible under EU law. Interesting if true.
Rejoin could be done in a year with political will
Even if you could rustle up a majority in a referendum to go back in, which I doubt you could. There's still a democratic deficit in asking folks to vote again on something that is already 'settled' and so recently. The EU themselves would be rightly wary unless both political parties are fully behind it (they're not) and an overwhelming majority of the public are clamouring for it. (again; they're not)
Rejoin could be done in a year with political will
That's my point exactly - there is no will from the electorate to go through it all again. And don't post the 'most people now are remainers' statistic AGAIN, that's not the same thing at all. You are living in fantasy land if you think this is possible. Desirable, sure, but not possible currently.
How do we get the lost growth back?
Borrow to invest, like always.
Open your eyes man and stop letting yourself be gaslit
You cheeky bugger. Just because I disagree with you does not make me stupid or ignorant. I'm very well aware of the issues, more issues than you apparently. I'm pointing out all the ones you're ignoring (as is everyone else on the forum).
I get so frustrated with this
If you can't discuss things with throwing about the insults, maybe time to step away a bit?
Rejoining the EU would not be a quick, or easy process, the UK would have to hold a referendum, then go to the EU to become a candidate and then formally go through the process, a long process, then recommended for membership.
This of course comes after all of the EU countries agree that we can apply for membership, and then have it agreed through the European Parliament, again, not a quick process.
The real fun will be how the UK joins without those opt-outs we had previously (Euro/ECB/Shengen/etc), as well as the rebate we had and our standing in the EU previously. The big question is how many EU nations would want us back, and what is the risk of us changing our minds again, what if the UK in 2035 is more right wing, can we just vote again, and leave yet again, what stops that?
That’s my point exactly – there is no will from the electorate to go through it all again.
the vast majority want to rejoin. Its perfectly possible. The only reason its not on the table for the UK is due to Starmers conversion to being a brexiteer and his constant gaslighting over it. all the so called obstacles are imaginary.
You cheeky bugger.
Apologies again
the UK would have to hold a referendum,
No it wouldn't. No more than it had to hold a referendum to trigger A50.
The only referendum was an advisory one with multiple conflicting visions of what leaving the EU meant. If there was going to be a 'proper' (ie, not advisory and with all the increased oversight that goes along with it) referendum then it should have been on whether the UK government was in a position to trigger A50.
But yes, enough politicians have said, 'not in my lifetime' often enough that the message has stuck so I doubt anyone has anything to worry about in terms of rejoining anytime soon.
People have allowed themselves to be convinced that rejoining will be a more arduous task than leaving was and for some reason seem quite happy to remain out for the rest of their lives.
**** the electorate.
They ballsed it up once - take the choice out of it.
We're not having a referendum on VAT on private school fees or winter fuel payments. No need to have one on (re)join either.
People have allowed themselves to be convinced that rejoining will be a more arduous task than leaving was
Who said that?
The only reason its not on the table for the UK is due to Starmers conversion to being a brexiteer and his constant gaslighting over it.
You honestly believe that's the *only* reason?
Who said that?
Keir Starmer said not in his lifetime. Many on here have echoed similar sentiments.
Leaving only took 4 years. Triggering A50 took less than a year.
Why is rejoining going to take so much longer?
nickc
‘settled’ and so recently
The referendum was 8 years and 5 prime ministers ago! I'm sure we now have all the evidence we need that it was a bad decision and that it's time to turn things around.
I know Starmer's terrified of the lexiteers (and Farage) but FFS man, grow a pair.
You honestly believe that’s *only* reason?
yes. Both major English parties are brexiteer parties and Starmer is constantly gaslighting over it. Here the two parties of government are pro Europe pro rejoin and thus we get a very different take on it. IIRC over 80% of the scots electorate want rejoin.
Accession would not be a long process. Thats a bit of the gaslighting.
A rejoin referendum would have a massive rejoin majority
Bruce - we haven't actually finished leaving yet. We still have not implemented the import checks legally required and are in breach of the withdrawal agreement in a number of areas
Why is rejoining going to take so much longer?
Because it's not up to the UK this time.
Leaving only took 4 years. Triggering A50 took less than a year.
I see... by "arduous" you mean take longer. I'm not sure that's the case... we're still years off having completed the process of being outside the EU... and it's already been 5 years since we first had a government declaring we would leave. Joining doesn't have to take any longer than leaving for it to be a long drawn out process. What people are saying its that we're not joining any time soon... and even if a UK government decided to join, which was never on the cards at any recent election, it would not be in charge of the timetable to join... or the nature of the deal.
Bruce – we haven’t actually finished leaving yet.
True, but if you fancy going and working in Europe for a while then I think you'll find that for all intents and purposes the UK has most definitely left the EU.
However, it does go to show that leaving is far more complex than rejoining would be. Particularly given the UK is a former member.
Where the gaslighting comes in (which many on this forum seem particularly keen on) is to use the complexity of leaving as evidence that rejoining will be equally as if not more complicated than leaving. That is simply not true.
Because it’s not up to the UK this time.
A serious point. It would need cap in hand begging but if thats what is needed thats what sould be done
Every day we are out the damage compounds. The sooner we are back in the better.
failed to find and actual benefits.
Have I missed any since?
No, I don’t think so WCA
Not quite true. I got three hundred quid VAT back on the skis I bought in Austra in February...
Elephant. Room.
Ro-Elephant-om surely?
Also, regarding rejoining.... People seem to be ignoring the big issue of whether the Europes want us back over the last X years "we" have shown ourselves collectively to be pigshit thick ignorant scum. Insell Affen as the Germans are wont to call us. The chances of if getting all 27 nations to welcome us back is zero.
you’ll find that for all intents and purposes the UK has most definitely left the EU
There's yet more cost and time to come.
Joining would have a (lower) cost and take many (but perhaps fewer) years than leaving. But it wouldn't be cost free or quick... that's fantasy. Is it worth the cost and time in my opinion, absolutely... is the UK and the British public ready to swallow that right now... I doubt it... despite it being bloody obvious we haven't gained from leaving, and would benefit long term if back in.
The real fun will be how the UK joins without those opt-outs we had previously (Euro/ECB/Shengen/etc), as well as the rebate we had and our standing in the EU previously. The big question is how many EU nations would want us back, and what is the risk of us changing our minds again, what if the UK in 2035 is more right wing, can we just vote again, and leave yet again, what stops that?
I think pragmatism would win out as our memership benefits both us and the EU, I think we can probably keep the £, but kiss goodbye to the sweet rebates we had and have to accept SM and CU, which comes bundled with FOM.
Perhaps a 'half way' option like the 'soft brexit/Norway type deal" that brexiteers were actualy sold, before being crashed out hard by the tories, might be a more realistic option to start with?
and what is the risk of us changing our minds again
I think the UK would need tighter legislation around referendums...as in they would have to be 'official' rather than advisory like we had, in which a lot of the checks and balances you would expect, around dodgy campaign funding, misinformation, a requirement for a real majority, ie. a proper majority, say 65% rather than 51% (or something) etc, simply didn't apply to an advisory referendum.
Perhaps a ‘half way’ option like the ‘soft brexit/Norway type deal” that brexiteers were actualy sold, before being crashed out hard by the tories, might be a more realistic option to start with?
In the SM & CU for the mutual benefit of all that, but no longer a leading power in the EU proper, is the most likely the best long term relationship we can hope for. I can't see any future French government wanting the UK as an equal in Europe again.
Unless a government calls Brexit out for what it was/is, we’re stuck with it.
And the problem here is twofold, IMHO.
Firstly, Labour won the election not on their own merits but because the Tories were so mind-bogglingly shit. Their balance of power is on a knife-edge and they would have to be astonishingly myopic not to realise this. Their number one goal right now will be to secure control ahead of the next GE and the absolute last thing they're going to be going if they have any brains at all is anything likely to be controversial/divisive amongst its electorate.
Whilst I concede that I have been historically terrible at predicting the future, I fully expect Labour to tread water for a few years until the dust settles. They don't have to be great, they just have to not do anything stupid.
Secondly, outside of argumentative threads on cycling forums, the public has reached Brexit Fatigue as Mols suggests. The Remainers have scored a bit of an own goal here in so far as, thanks to various fudges, deadline extensions and outright cheats along with a wholesale Ctrl-C Ctrl-V of EU legislation into English Law, the sky has thus far failed to fall in as widely predicted. As far as the great unwashed is concerned, brexit "got done" and regardless of political viewpoint there is little appetite from most people to reopen Pandora's Brexit again. People are, not to put too fine a point on it, sick to ****ing death of hearing about it.
the UK would have to hold a referendum
No it wouldn't. The UK would have to have politicians who did the job they're paid to do. Which of course is even less likely.
Why is rejoining going to take so much longer?
I dunno, I reckon I could knock a garage down a lot faster than I could build one. Doubly so if the neighbours were of the mind that I could stick my garage up my arse and were demanding to see whether I had planning permission.
is the UK and the British public ready to swallow that right now
The vast majority want to rejoin. 70% of labour voters, 80% of the scots electorate, significant majority UK wide
the public has reached Brexit Fatigue
only in some circles / areas and only because they are constantly being fed lies about it. This simply does not apply here IMO because we have pro europe parties in power
The failure of brexit and the need to rejoin comes up frequently in conversation here - perhaps also in part because the damage caused is so obvious here
The vast majority want to rejoin. 70% of labour voters, 80% of the scots electorate, significant majority UK wide
I'm sure you've told us that before at some point ?
Starmers conversion to being a brexiteer
Utter rubbish, he's a pragmatist who realises that re-joining the EU is one of the many things on the UK's 'To Do List' but before he can even start the process he's to fix loads of other far more important (and structural) issues.
Put it another way, Scotland has a better chance of joining the EU as an independent country than the UK has of been let back in - that's how big the 'ask' is.
But thanks for reminding me of my underlying hatred of those who peddled Brexit and the gullible idiots that voted for it; and don't get me started on the sheer contempt I have for folk that still support it.
I’m sure you’ve told us that before at some point ?
correct - and I will keep on reminding folk when they say there is no appetite for rejoin -
Utter rubbish, he’s a pragmatist who realises that re-joining the EU is one of the many things on the UK’s ‘To Do List’ but before he can even start the process he’s to fix loads of other far more important (and structural) issues.
What else do you call someone who supports brexit and continually lies about it? " make the most of the opportunities" FFS We all know there are none
Fixing those other issues without rejoining is like trying to climb a tree with your hands tied behind your back. that 22 billion hole in finances? the benefirt from rejoin is hugely larger than that and the losses from brexit are larger than that
**** the electorate.
You know how democracy works, don't you?
the vast majority want to rejoin.
It's not as clear cut as you think:
And there's a massive difference between wanting to rejoin in principle and wanting to kick off another protracted political crisis. Do you think that it would all go smoothly? I think you are massively overlooking the subtle but profound impacts of making a snap unilateral decision here.
I will keep on reminding folk when they say there is no appetite for rejoin
That's not what I said.
What else do you call someone who supports brexit and continually lies about it?
You are being incredibly dense on this point. I am at work today. Does that mean I want to be at work? **** no, it's a lovely day and I want to be out on my bike. But for pragmatic reasons I know I need to work. So whilst I don't want to work, I also don't want to lose my job, so I am choosing to work. I trying as hard as I can to get a promotion and a raise, even though I don't want to be here. I don't want to work, but I also want to work at the same time. Do you get my point?
and I will keep on reminding folk when they say there is no appetite for rejoin
Possibly you should reflect on how well the patented TJ 'Batter them into submission' approach has worked for you in the past.
We are all well aware of what the polls have been saying for a while now. There are very good reasons for thinking that those polls would not translate into a landslide victory in a referendum, particularly since any future vote would be likely to be more professionally run, requiring at least a majority of those entitled to vote, and maybe also a greater than 50% vote share. That is how things work in many countries that use referendums more frequently.