[Closed] the bike industry is suffering

It's all worth it

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There should be a fairly inevitable correction after a period of very rapid growth in cycling as a pastime. Market is becoming saturated, fewer people are joining it and not that many of the existing customers can afford multiple bikes or bike changes at 2.5K plus each.

We need a new standard to force some obsolescence. 🙂

We’ll see.

I hope it improves but nagging doubt.

Less people willing to fork out for the likes of Shimano's 20%+ price increase shocker! 😯

Why do you think the price went up?

Most industry's reporting struggling

UK car sales down 11% as well. - I'd like to think that's because people are using them less but j doubt that. It'll just be can't afforditus as every penny gets pinched in the name of a bringing back spitfires 😉

Most of Europe on the other hand experiancing 10-15% growth on last years figures.....

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It’s a perfect storm of direct online sales and Brexit at the moment, plus the longer term things of competition from other consumer goods (a bike isn’t the big Christmas toy any more) and the general death of the high street.

But the bike industry has never been particularly profitable...

cycling as a pastime

Aye Martinhutch....maybe that’s the issue...bike industry seeing it as a pastime, not an essential transport mode.

Most of Europe on the other hand experiancing [sic] 10-15% growth on last years figures

That'll be base effect. I'd much rather have the UK's economic performance since 2007/8 than most of continental Europe (I live in France).

Europe's economy is growing because the ECB has unleashed monumental amounts of QE. It is no more real than the UK's economic growth for the last five years, which has also been based on QE and yet more housing debt.
People in the UK are starting to hold back on big ticket purchases, as housing is slowing and interest rates are going up. At the same time, the renters may actually start saving more as they think they could have a realistic chance to get on the housing ladder in the next five years, whether that be through a Corbyn government or an elongated house price crash.
The UK's economy is way over-reliant on domestic consumption powered by house price bubbles, and the fall in sterling is helping manufacturing, so overall the UK is on the right path, but it will be a rocky one, especially for people who don't blink an eye when paying £5k for a new bike as housing is only ever going to go up, innit.

martinhutch - Member
There should be a fairly inevitable correction after a period of very rapid growth in cycling as a pastime. Market is becoming saturated, fewer people are joining it and not that many of the existing customers can afford multiple bikes or bike changes at 2.5K plus each.

This is a far too intelligent answer; lets just blame it on Brexit ... far easier option.

How is the US bike market?

The US market was strong - but still the case?

Impact of US bike market to "rest of world" is always high.

Demand, or pressure from brands which try to sell more in "rest of world".
USA mountain bike brands, UK: moved the prices up as well?

the fall in sterling is helping manufacturing

It isn’t really. Most UK manufacturing is reliant on imports of raw materials and components, the fall in Sterling has harmed that. Then if (when) Brexit imposes border checks and costs, that’ll kill modern JIT manufacturing. Finally, much UK manufacturing is of high-end products which are less price sensitive.

Manufacturing order books are at a 30 year high. All because of the fall in sterling. The challenge now is to develop an industrial strategy to take advantage of this momentum and obviously establish the right trade agreements post-Brexit.
Demand for British products from non EU countries now exceeds that of the EU (long term trend) so despite all the talk of rebalancing the UK economy by politicians over the last 20 years, it is Brexit which is ultimately stimulating that rebalancing - and also deflating housing, which is over-priced by at least a third in London and the South-East.

Also remember that article is on BikeBiz, home of enough doom, gloom and negativity to kill off the confidence of any retailer.

Honestly, they could make "man finds £50 note on the floor" into a bad news story 😆 😆

As others have said, it's a correction from poor forecasting, bad business sense on some parts, an artificial 5 year bubble post Olympics and a changing global economy and ways of trading.

No point sitting round complaining about a changing world of retail - adapt or die.

Ach, I give up - it’s a holiday, I can’t be bothered arguing with reality-denying Brexiteers.

The industry has been taking the piss pricing wise for several years. The bubble has been passed. As above adapt or die.

I'm with Coops on this one, this is the time of the Prince of Peace after all.
I only came back on this forum to listen to the MIL horror stories for a laugh.
Have a good xmas all.

adapt or die

with or without BREXIT I guess.

bike industry: Guess 80 percent or so of Shimano, SRAM, Fox, Formula ... parts are from Asia.

Carbon and aluminium frames: also around 80 percent or so?

Possible "shift", in near future: end of line assembly will take place in Asia as well?

Possible

adapt or die

As above I reckon its a bubble getting ready to burst. In Chester where I live there are 9 bike shops in and around town (11 if you count the two Halfords). Although they've all managed to stay in business over the last couple of years I'm sure that number in a city of about 80 thousand people is not sustainable long term and I'll be amazed if they are all in business at the end of next year.

bencooper - Member
Ach, I give up - it’s a holiday, I can’t be bothered arguing with reality-denying Brexiteers

what is this brexit of which you speak

We need a new standards to force some obsolescence.

Well, changing standards have certainly forced me out of the market.

The media (including STW) pushing £2000 as a beginner price point and the unrelenting charge upmarket haven't helped either.

MTB is due a replacement tbh, but I won't be buying anything with Boost, 650b, no front mech option or 35mm bars.
People will only take so much bullshit.

I can't say I feel sorry for anyone but the smaller manufacturers.

I'm sure that number in a city of about 80 thousand people is not sustainable long term and I'll be amazed if they are all in business at the end of next year.

what might change the game as well: online trading / direct sales

http://singletrackworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/cotic-move-to-direct-sales-only/

Cotic is only one example.
One of the

adapt or die

Manufacturing order books are at a 30 year high. All because of the fall in sterling. The challenge now is to develop an industrial strategy to take advantage of this momentum and obviously establish the right trade

as ben says material costs have gone up last year stainless reached the same cost as titanium for some parts i make so effectively whilst the order books might be full and there was a big interest in ordering stuff the profit margin was sweet FA and back to square one

MTB is due a replacement tbh, but I won't be buying anything with Boost, 650b, no front mech option or 35mm bars.
People will only take so much bullshit.

interesting point.
Might be part of the problem!
Bike industry pushed too hard in recent years with "new miracle stuff"?

Possible?

A big factor.

Many people I ride with have never spent £2000 on a bike and never will.
But they used to spend a hell of a lot on parts, clothes, upgrades and holidays.

All money that will in future be spent elsewhere.

No one trusts the industry or the media anymore and it's entirely their own fault.

No one trusts the industry or the media anymore and it's entirely their own fault.

very possible.

MTB is due a replacement tbh, but I won't be buying anything with Boost, 650b, no front mech option or 35mm bars.
People will only take so much bullshit.

Yeah but what is wrong with it?

It's cynical bullshit.

Worse than that, it's cynical bullshit dressed up as progress.

Honestly sticking with something that you did on a road bike sounds like a crap idea. I picked up a boost 650 etc bike, ticked all the boxes, considering I can get all of the old standards brand new and easy I don't see an issue going forward. though if you refuse to try anything new I don't see how you can judge it.

Yeah but what is wrong with it? Why are you attached to 135mm QR wheels for instance. The pink bike podcast with the industry was actually very good with people explaining that old road standards don't really work that well for mtb.

there is nothing wrong with it, it's the "this new stuff the best thing since sliced bread" and what you've got is so shit you are risking life and limb riding it oh and btw we're not going to support that old crap any more. For only a year later to repeat the trick. So I will ride my singlespeed 26er till the forks explode and replace them with some rigids and the bike industry can **** right off.

it's the "this new stuff the best thing since sliced bread" and what you've got is so shit you are risking live and limb riding it oh and btw we're not going to support that old crap any more.

Did you mean cynics talking bullshit? 😉
If there hadn’t been the baby step of 142 between 135 and 148, there would have been far less outcry. There are far more practical benefits to 148 than 142.

While some “standard” introductions (BB30, BB30a, PF30, BBright, BB90/95, BB86/92, 386 Evo, OSBB in both Alu and Carbon, T47, 35mm bars/stems etc) have been truly cynical, Boost with it’s irritating name seems to me to be the fall guy, but without good reason.

You forgot 650b, the most cynical move of all.
🙂

Ha - good point!

And flat mount road brakes.

Some might suggest they were
deliberately held back until roadies had invested in previous gen disc kit.

Some might suggest

Remind me what can't you buy again?

I’m not surprised that figures are down this year compared to last. Surely a lot of that is to do with the fact that people buying new wheel standards has tailed off not because the bike industry is suffering. This years figures are relative to the bumper years they’ve had through gullible people upgrading their bikes. My heart bleeds, the bike industry can suffer for all I care. The way they try to engineer sales through new standards is a scandal. If you live by your sales figures you should die by them as well. Jog on.

Remind me what can't you buy again?

That was a good podcast, with interesting points. I think the "You can still get 26" rims" argument is kind of backwards though. If you have a 26" frame and want something with more modern geo, you can't just buy a new frame. You'd need new forks (650b) , new hubs/rims (boost) potentially a new BB, potentially a new shock (metric).

So lots of people understandably just don't buy new frames or bikes. Also impacted by the drop in second hand value of 26" and other "outdated" parts which then impact the amount of cash available for a new bike.

strategy?

Offer consumers a ‘cool’ bike that meets all current trends but avoids the sort of trinketry that’s become the norm during the boom.

It’s all well and good the industry players offering a Alu version of their flagship for 75% the cost of the carbon, but bikes aren’t a rational purchase, consumers want the carbon. So you sell the brand through Insta, Pinkbike vids etc and build your fan base, but given the choice between a new Alu / base build and a S/H carbon they’ll go S/H.

You don’t need a carbon frame to see bikes - Orange still make aspirational bikes without it.

I think the likes of Bird can benefit from a downturn, they can sell the brand, build the fan base and their range tops out as other brands are starting.

Can’t imagine why the industry is having these problems.

“What do I do with my old 78’s?”

There should be a fairly inevitable correction after a period of very rapid growth in cycling as a pastime. Market is becoming saturated, fewer people are joining it and not that many of the existing customers can afford multiple bikes or bike changes at 2.5K plus each.

This.

Two things;

Folk wanting to buy bits for old frames are in the minority.

The average price of a new bicycle in the UK is around £300.

Whinge all you want about new standards and the media pushing £2k starter bikes but neither have a major influence on bike sales. Step away from the bubble.

The industry has been taking the piss pricing wise for several years

Agree. Was only a few years back that £4000+ on a bike would have been seen as very extravagant yet now looking through the pages of Cyclist I would say the average price of bikes they test, review are around £4K with many reaching £8K

scotroutes - Member
Two things;

Folk wanting to buy bits for old frames are in the minority.

Hasn't that always been the case?
How have the figures changed recently?

Whinge all you want about new standards and the media pushing £2k starter bikes but neither have a major influence on bike sales.Step away from the bubble

Thanks for your permission to whinge.
🙂

Step away from the bubble?
Don't you work in the industry?

And what effect do you think the media pushing £2000 as the amount a beginner should spend actually has?

And how about those new 'standards'?
What do you think the point of introducing 650b and ditching 26
was?

To me there seems a lack of practical innovation in the industry. Sure we have different wheel/axle/headset sizes and 11 speed Di2 etc. However, I cannot yet justify replacing my decade old Mount Vision (old school 9 speed/26/1.125" steerer/9mm QR) despite having earmarked cash, taken test rides and drooling over bikes generally. All I can say is the newer bikes are slightly stiffer, pedal slightly more efficiently and handle slightly better. I have spent more on fancy lights and clothing where (imho) the new stuff offers a big improvement. I think blaming Brexit is a bit easy...

I can't see what the fuss is all about. I started off in 1989 and 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 speed all came and went in a decade. Discs then arrived and there were a few different standards. I remember suspension designs that tried every possible arrangement. I also remember how much something like a Marin Team Titanium cost and corrected for inflation it would cost a fortune today and be really rather mediocre.

kerley - Member
The industry has been taking the piss pricing wise for several years
Agree. Was only a few years back that £4000+ on a bike would have been seen as very extravagant yet now looking through the pages of Cyclist I would say the average price of bikes they test, review are around £4K with many reaching £8K

You are talking about Cyclist though aren't you? It covers an extravagant European mega ride each issue and specialises in expensive bikes, which, let's be honest, are more interesting to read about.

That's like complaining that Evo or Porsche 911 World magazine are useless for finding which small runabout car you should get for a first time driver.

As for people not buying bikes because of standards changes, I bet some would be less reluctant to change if the replacements were 20% cheaper.

As has been mentioned previously all the new standard of the week crap the industry and media pushed out stopped me buying new mtbs, I used to have 5, now just a HT running retro specs. Have been doing more road but they are starting to pull the same crap there as well!

Plus the prices went crazy 5 or 6 years ago!

It seems to me that these days mountain bikes are so different to what I need. I know things evolve and change but the simple fact is I’ve not changed what cycling I do, and the locations where I ride haven’t changed either. I have no need for an Enduro Bike living in the south. I don’t need 150mm of travel, a stiffer frame, or a wider rear hub. At no point while riding have I though, “if only my rear hub was wider and my frame stiffer.” Yet the industry pushes these things onto me, almost saying that without these things I’m missing out. I thought SPDs, full sus and discs were excellent new developments and enhanced my cycling. Mucking around with wheel size (29ers being the exception), tapered head tubes and hub sizing havent added to my riding.

[quote=Rusty Spanner ]

scotroutes - Member
Two things;
Folk wanting to buy bits for old frames are in the minority.

Hasn't that always been the case?
How have the figures changed recently?

In general there's less of a demand to "mend and make do" they way folk used to. This isn't bike-specific, it's a general societal thing.

Whinge all you want about new standards and the media pushing £2k starter bikes but neither have a major influence on bike sales.Step away from the bubble

Thanks for your permission to whinge.

Step away from the bubble?
Don't you work in the industry?

And what effect do you think the media pushing £2000 as the amount a beginner should spend actually has?

And how about those new 'standards'?
What do you think the point of introducing 650b and ditching 26
was?

There's nothing magic about 26" as a wheel size. It's purely accidental that we ended up with that. In fact, there were naysayers from the very early days. I regard 26" as a bit of a passing fad (unless you're fitting 4" tyres of course).

Compare a top end mtbike from 1995 to 2005, that's when the innovation was happening.
The last ten years have seen relatively minor changes/innovation so there hasnt been such a pressing need to update your bike unless you are riding races or mtb obsessed.

There have been some significant price increases in recent years. My wife bought me a Spesh Roubaix for my fiftieth, it was £1600. The following year, the same bike (but with slightly lower spec componentry) was £2200!

@twowheels - I had a Marin Vision from that time (the last of the box section frames), I've now a Cotic Solaris which is night and day a better bike.

The biggest problem with the bike industry is the plethora of incompatible "standards", it's getting as bad as sourcing motor parts: So that's a 2010 model is it sir? Pre or post June? And does the chassis number end in a seven?

innovation needs money. If the "next mountain bike" should be better than the current one the industry needs to earn money.
That's fair.

But what I don't like: that the industry tells you that the bike you bought yesterday is already crap today. Don't like this and don't believe this.

On one side we really see innovation. On the other side the push for "DUBAI" style bikes and "deflation" for what you bought yesterday.

Difficult balance.
And also remember this number being true:

The average price of a new bicycle in the UK is around £300.

These £300 bikes won't be mountain bikes so... ❓

Possible that the mountain bike part of the industry is NOT part of the

the bike industry which is suffering

No idea.

In general there's less of a demand to "mend and make do" they way folk used to.

None/little. Most folk who buy bikes aren't reading about £2k bikes.

So no one consults the media before purchasing a bike?

There's nothing magic about 26" as a wheel size. It's purely accidental that we ended up with that. In fact, there were naysayers from the very early days. I regard 26" as a bit of a passing fad (unless you're fitting 4" tyres of course).

We didn't need 650b to go wider.
And you didn't answer my question.

While the ongoing saga of bicycle "standardisation" is probably helping to deter some of those with more niche cycling interests and bigger budgets, I can't help thinking that a general reduction in bike sales across the UK could have more to do with a slow down in the "utility" and commuter markets...

"Normal" People spending £3-600ish on a hybrid or basic MTB to get to work on, it may be worth looking for a correlation in C2W uptake? Anyone know about that?

It's probably also reflecting the more general economic picture, people are just not as flush and ready to spend this year, with cost of living increases being played off against discretionary purchases like shiny bikes...

Despite being a staunch Remainer, even I would struggle to blame the whole thing on Brexit, you could well argue that both reductions in consumer spending and Brexit are symptoms of some much bigger issues, but that's a whole other thread...

And what effect do you think the media pushing £2000 as the amount a beginner should spend actually has?

And

But what I don't like: that the industry tells you that the bike you bought yesterday is already crap today. Don't like this and don't believe this.

Genuine question - can someone post examples of each of these?

So no one consults the media before purchasing a bike?

26 vs 650B? I think it's worthwhile. That's based upon jumping back on a 26er after a spell on larger wheels. Thing is, so many other changes have happened in parallel that it's difficult to separate out individual points.

If I was going to have a go at the bike industry (as if it is one big cartel) then it would be about annual bike product cycles. They diminish the 2nd hand price and result in retailers having to offload stock at stupid prices, having had to commit to bulk orders in order to get a decent margin. Knock that on the head and we'd also reduce the incremental standards creep.

my modern geo 26er with standard 15mm front 142 rear isn't going to be replaced any time soon.

scotroutes-bloke:

If I was going to have a go at the bike industry (as if it is one big cartel) then it would be about annual bike product cycles. They diminish the 2nd hand price and result in retailers having to offload stock at stupid prices, having had to commit to bulk orders in order to get a decent margin.

innovation needs money. If the "next mountain bike" should be better than the current one the industry needs to earn money.
That's fair.
But what I don't like: that the industry tells you that the bike you bought yesterday is already crap today. Don't like this and don't believe this.

annual bike product cycles

I like bikes. Also out of the fact that a bike is not outdated after 2 years - or even one year!

hungry monkey-bloke:

And

But what I don't like: that the industry tells you that the bike you bought yesterday is already crap today. Don't like this and don't believe this.

Genuine question - can someone post examples of each of these?

If I was going to have a go at the bike industry (as if it is one big cartel) then it would be about annual bike product cycles. They diminish the 2nd hand price and result in retailers having to offload stock at stupid prices, having had to commit to bulk orders in order to get a decent margin. Knock that on the head and we'd also reduce the incremental standards creep.

Means the industry tried to turn a bike into a "fashion" thing?

Some of the issues might be.

For less than the price of a Santa Cruz V10 X01 you can buy a 2018 KTM 250 TPI. A far more involved and sophisticated piece of engineering.

The reluctance of a large section of the industry to embrace d2c and cut out unneeded middle men.

The reluctance of a large section of shops to embrace ecommerce.

my impression - scotroutes bloke gave a good hint how it works:

I see that as the natural progression of bike models - it is the same in every production industry - how many products are identical to the one that first came to market? Of course they want to sell you the new one - they're businesses afterall.

However I've never seen any company say that the previous generation model is crap - which is what was implied by my initial post, and is totally different. Do VW say the mk6 golf is crap now that the mk7 exists? No. Likewise I've never seen spesh say the 2015 enduro is crap, just that the 2018 one is amazing.

It does sometimes feel that stw expect the bike industry to work in a way entirely different to every other production industry, be it cars, washing machines, mobile phones or pressure washers - of course the newest one is the latest and greatest - that's how the world works....

To take the car industry as an example - how many iterations of Golfs have there been since its introduction [b]44[/b] years ago?

Good example scotroutes

The model year cycle has been the bain of the industry for ever.

For everyone from suppliers to importers to shop to the customer.

hungry monkey - bloke:

It does sometimes feel that stw expect the bike industry to work in a way entirely different to every other production industry, be it cars, washing machines, mobile phones or pressure washers

your points are all valid.
And - maybe - you are right.
Possible that we expect too much from the bike industry?

And in fact - I personally expected the bike industry to be different from

every other production industry, be it cars, washing machines, mobile phones or pressure washers

Maybe an irrational wish.
And I have to admit: I'am pretty happy with my bikes...

TheDoctor - Member
As has been mentioned previously all the new standard of the week crap the industry and media pushed out stopped me buying new mtbs, I used to have 5, now just a HT running retro specs. Have been doing more road but they are starting to pull the same crap there as well!

That's a good thing right? Had bikes stayed exactly the same you'd have bought five instead you're still enjoying the one you have. ❓

Duplicate deleted.

And in fact - I personally expected the bike industry to be different from

Genuinely interested - why do you expect out to be any different?

Regardless of how frequent model changes are, I still don't think anyone has shown that the bike industry has explicitly said that their previous generation kit was crap...

As with all these things, if you don't like it, don't buy it... 🙄

Genuine question - can someone post examples of each of these?

You wont find an example of bike manufacturers or the media saying last years bikes are now rubbish. It's just when they gush about how a 6mm wider hub, 10% stiffer frame and different size wheels are better. They create the impression that what went before isn't as good. People in their own minds translate that into rubbish. The industry knows thats how people work and count on it to sell new bikes.

They create the impression that what went before isn't as good. People in their own minds translate that into rubbish. The industry knows thats how people work and count on it to sell new bikes.

Yes - it's us - together with the bike industry.

You wont find an example of bike manufacturers or the media saying last years bikes are now rubbish.

Aah ok, that's what people said tho.

It's just when they gush about how a 6mm wider hub, 10% stiffer frame and different size wheels are better.

Ok, so if we assume that in back to back testing someone who writes reviews believes that whatever the new thing is is better, they shouldn't say it? (I'm not asking if you personally believe it would be better or not)

The industry knows thats how people work and count on it to sell new bikes.

Well yeah, bike companies employ people in marketing departments to sell new bikes...

My point is that bike companies are subject to the exact same market forces and requirements of any other business, so why shouldn't they act like other businesses? Stw forum gives the impression that the bike industry should exist in a bubble out with that of the rest of the economy...

I bought a new (to me) van recently. I couldn't afford a 67 plate one so I got an 11 plate. Nobody at vw said it was shit. I also wasn't bitter that vw choose to sell a brand new one at a price I couldn't afford - I wanted a vw specifically but I guess I could have afforded a brand new van of a different marque. Likewise I don't jump on car forums and complain that the latest Ferrari costs £350k and then go on about how ridiculously expensive cars are these days...

It was Singletrack that pushed the £2k beginner bike line btw.

Along with the opinion that people who buy Chinese lights aren't serious MTB'ers.

I don't read stw 😉

I’m not sure I can bemoan “new standards” all that much. I wailed like everyone else at 650b, how it was pointless, how 26 was the best, if it ain’t broke and all that, but you know what, it hasn’t been half as bad as we thought.

2014 was the year the mainstream, which of course started in Sept 2013 - here we are in 2018 (in bike terms) you can still buy a decent selection of 26 tyres and rims and there’s a couple of 26” forks still in circulation and I’m sure it’s far from impossible to keep your 26 bike going for years to come.

The stuff that’s come since - boost, ‘metric’ shocks and all that - does anyone really care anymore?

My point is that bike companies are subject to the exact same market forces and requirements of any other business, so why shouldn't they act like other businesses? Stw forum gives the impression that the bike industry should exist in a bubble out with that of the rest of the economy...

I don't disagree with this at all. The bike industry wants to sell bikes, the media relies on a buoyant Industry to sell their products. It's just how it is, but how it's done is not always in the customers best interest.

Boost with it’s irritating name seems to me to be the fall guy, but without good reason.

A lot of the standards for BB or bar clamp diameters, even headsets are to me an annoyance at worst, but boost made a very expensive part of a bicycle, the wheels, next to useless. A new BB or headset is something that I'd likely buy with a new frame.

142 wasn't an inbetween step, it was a variation on 135 that most hubs used by people who like to swap frames could accommodate.

What does boost achieve that can't be achieved with larger hub flanges or offset spoke holes in the rims? Clearance for (ever) wider tyres, I suppose, but short stays, should you want them are possible with 142 spacing. You can even fit a front mech, too.

I am mostly over my Boost induced rage, but Boost is the reason I've not bought a new frame (and accompanying BB/headset). If the industry wants a my few quid, make 142 rear spacing available on new frames.

What product category doesn’t continually improve and refine every year? What manufacturer doesn’t keep tweaking, launching new models?

This isn’t anything special about the bike industry, it’s how all consumer goods work. Who still has a first-generation iPhone?