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It's the Sea Otter Classic this weekend and the current generation of XTR will be three years old, this means we might expect to see the first pictures of the 2018 XTR. What are people expecting?
As a starter I think the following:
1) Shimano are likely to contine pushing Di2, possibly meaning there is no cable option.
2) Major revision of brake design - the latest Shimano brakes are less popular with reviewers than the SRAM offerings so I think Shimano will address this.
3) 12 speed is probably enevitable.
4) Possibly (hopefully) a splined chainring interface for the cranks.
didn't they already do #4 back in 1999 with the FC-M952? First thing I did was buy a 4-arm middleburn adapter for them..
12 speed chainset and single rear cog for for stronger wheels, New hub standard and mass centralisation.
Integrated crank based power meter like Dura Ace and that's about it.
They won't go 12 speed as XTR is all about the syncro shifting on the Di2 double
5lab - yep, you're correct. I guess that I was referring to recent generations, certainly since 1x* has become ubiquitous, which have had bolted chainrings.
My main interest is how much cheaper will current XTR Di2 be when the new stuff comes out?
Not sure about this, agree with your point but even Shimano must recognise that 1x* is here to stay and 12 speed gives a greater gear range.They won't go 12 speed as XTR is all about the syncro shifting on the Di2 double
Heavier than SRAM
Less range than SRAM
considering the Dura-Ace power meter is only just landing, i don't think there will be a MTB option this time around
12 speed is a no brainer, will still work with synchro-shift
a cassette thats heavier than SRAM's
some sort of new MTB junction box - you wouldn't want the Road barred one on the edge of your bars
poorly executed Pro integrated stem (locking collar is cheese) - bars & post were alright
1) Shimano will keep a cable option. If nothing else, cable operated XTR serves for trickle down technology to XT/SLX/Deore in the future. They still persist with mechanical Dura Ace even though most roadies have bought into Di2 and will buy Ultegra Di2 at the same price point.
2) Agreed. Shimano need to bring back some consistency and reliability to their range of brakes. A bit more modulation wouldn't go amiss either.
3) Shimano will stay away from 12spd indefinitely. They don't like playing SRAM at their own game, and Shimano will likely persist with their (to be fair, highly refined) front derailleur options for as long as possible. Worldwide, the U.K. and the US markets are still considered quite unique in their love of 1x drivetrains, and Shimano more than any other company in the bike trade, like to play it safe.
4) The biggest reason for that was to allow 1x setups to use smaller than 30T chainrings. But most people now don't go below 30T as the cassettes have got bigger! With a 4 bolt setup you can change the chainring in the field, with just a 5mm Allen key, without removing the crank. I'm not sure Shimano are fussed either way, though it does seem mildly odd they've doggedly stuck to splined interfaces for brake rotors, but not considered it for spider/chainring mount (not since XTR was still 8spd). Time will tell I suppose, but the redesign of the 4bolt chainring pattern was I imagine all that Shimano are going to offer here for some time.
As steve_b77 says crank based powermeters will become an option soon enough too.
My main interest is how much cheaper will current XTR Di2 be when the new stuff comes out?
Go for XT... It's already got more features than XTR, is only slightly heavier, is a lot cheaper, and with the synchro-shift function you only need to buy it with one shifter anyway!
edd - Member
They won't go 12 speed as XTR is all about the syncro shifting on the Di2 double
Not sure about this, agree with your point but even Shimano must recognise that 1x* is here to stay and 12 speed gives a greater gear range.
However on the continent doubles are still massively popular and for XC / marathon, probably outnumbering singles considerably and considering the size of the market I reckon they'll stay focused on this.
There's no doubt 1x is here to stay, but XTR M9000 only has a 11-40 cassette to match nicely with that 24/36, 26/36 & 28/38 double.
considering the Dura-Ace power meter is only just landing, i don't think there will be a MTB option this time around
Emily Batty has been running [url= http://marathonmtb.com/2017/01/14/whats-new-for-emily-batty/ ]what is suspected to be one[/url] since the start of the year
With a 4 bolt setup you can change the chainring in the field, with just a 5mm Allen key, without removing the crank
I love the idea of somebody whipping out a new chainring half way round a ride 😉
For the comparison it's an 8mm and a T25 for the direct mounts and done in no time as removing and fitting a crank is simple and idiot proof.
I predict more half-assed second-rate 1x for the OE market, and more di2 for whoever it is that wants that.
No to 12s.
I reckon they'll go for integrating dropper posts, suspension lockout etc. with the Di2 controls, if there are any big changes.
I'm more interested in seeing whether or not SRAM will bring out 12 speed for road/cx bikes.
I've been running a 1x set up on the road bike with a 50t ring on the front but the gaps in the current 10/42 cassette can be a bit of a pain sometimes so the same 10/42 range but with closer ratios would be awesome.
Shimano work on a four year cycle, so no Xtr til next year, Saint/Zee are about due an upgrade though, wouldn't be suprised if we see that this week.
Shimano will stay away from 12spd indefinitely. They don't like playing SRAM at their own game, and Shimano will likely persist with their (to be fair, highly refined) front derailleur options for as long as possible. Worldwide, the U.K. and the US markets are still considered quite unique in their love of 1x drivetrains, and Shimano more than any other company in the bike trade, like to play it safe.
Given it's price point I don't imagine many people buy XTR without giving it some serious consideration, and 1x seems to win. I wouldn't be surprised iff they drop XTR 2x and it becomes an option on SLX or spun off like the XT trecking range.
There hardly seem any new 2x bikes coming out now because it needs accommodating in the suspension design. 2x has become the pain in the designers arse awkward 'standard' to accommodate.
I bet we either get a cassette to compete properly with SRAM (either 11 or 12s), or the return of yumeya as an XTR+1.
Admitting they're wrong, standardising on XD free hub and implementing wireless 12speed with more reliable brakes would be the best outcome for everyone but on current showing unlikely.
In my view Shimano have fumbled 1x and 11sp so hard that they seem to have given up on competing at regular mtb's and be positioning themselves for ebikes as a major event.
standardising on XD free hub
they'll never do that.
Return of the capreo freehub? 9t sprockets? 😉
Meh. Until they bring out wide range cassettes that don't weigh as much as a boat anchor, shimano are off my Christmas card list.
Enduro specific jockey wheels.
What would I like to see?
- A roadie cable pull wide range clutch mech (not XTR I admit)
- A nicer 11-46 cassette?
- The shimano take on Eagle (or some other proper 1x)
What do I expect?
- Component integration of some sort as others have suggested.
- Perhaps a new I-spec standard, we must be due one by now?
One thing I'm surprised they haven't done is use one of those little roadie shift buttons to run the front mech- surely with Di2 being double only you don't need an 'up' button and a 'down' button for the front, just a 'shift' button. Have a proper shifter on the right, a nice dropper remote and then a little button that meshes nicely with it.
maybe somebody could point out all their cassettes look like they missed the finishing step where you take off the excess
One thing I'm surprised they haven't done is use one of those little roadie shift buttons to run the front mech- surely with Di2 being double only you don't need an 'up' button and a 'down' button for the front, just a 'shift' button. Have a proper shifter on the right, a nice dropper remote and then a little button that meshes nicely with it.
Because when everything's going red mid way up the big climb in an XC race you'd hit the button only to find you were accidentally small-small and have just shifted into top gear. At least with two buttons it doesn't let you make that mistake.
Who's going to run 2x Di2 and not use Syncrho Shift? Surely that's one of the main selling points?
@mikewsmith, why are you so vehemently against Shimano?
lol just pointing out the flaws, it's quite easy. Less range, heavier, harder to set up apparently to stop the chain dropping. Can't really see the appeal. The last XT 10sp I had was very underwhelming and the XT brakes have been poor in comparison to my 6 year old hopes.
If cheap and cheerful is what your after then maybe go for it but it seems like they are playing catch up badly - 120mm dropper anyone? Can't remember the last bike I saw with a 2x drivetrain out the door of a shop, feels a bit like when they dropped 3x10 on people 🙂
Why do you think it's so good?
I wouldn't be surprised iff they drop XTR 2x and it becomes an option on SLX or spun off like the XT trecking range.
Not a chance given the size of the European marathon based market
I'm just back from the VOLCAT (3 stage MTB marathon) in Catalunya and the amount of people running Eagle was very surprising.
of course I didn't make any stats 😉 but the frequency was clearly higher than a double front.
Having said that, I really cannot imagine Shimano making it (yet).
2018 XTR will be some fine tuning, details & probably the integrated power meter.
I love the idea of somebody whipping out a new chainring half way round a ride
Someone I was with bent a ring on a ride once in the middle of nowhere.. We removed it and managed to bend it back.
A silent freewheel perhaps.
Because when everything's going red mid way up the big climb in an XC race you'd hit the button only to find you were accidentally small-small and have just shifted into top gear. At least with two buttons it doesn't let you make that mistake.
Who's going to run 2x Di2 and not use Syncrho Shift? Surely that's one of the main selling points?
Aye, I nearly mentioned that. It doesn't have to be THE way, just an option. Some might choose a readily available dropper lever (even for XC racing) and a single manual shift button over a normal shifter and an awkward dropper. Me, I'd take 1x and a dropper myself, but I only really do one race a year these days so probably not 'in' with XC trends!
A silent freewheel perhaps.
Ooh, yes, that patent that went around looked interesting.
twisty - Member
A silent freewheel perhaps.
Would be nice.
I like my Hope one, saves me needing a bell.
Heavier than SRAM
Less range than SRAM
Any yet still nicer to use 😉