Facebook has this year given the middle finger to publishers like us

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1. Bright colours and fun patterns make a huge return. We all need some more fun.
2. Hardtails, cheaper drivetrains and value components will see a real resurgence in sales. Deore, Microsoft Advent and similar for the win.
3. Adventures, on and off road, gravel, touring and ‘mucking about in the local woods’ will see a rise, whereas events, races, long journeys to trail centre and globetrotting costs will reduce.
4.

I think the Value Engineering one is the most relevant, in the scramble to support that market I reckon the ultimate “winner” will be whichever groupsets manufacturer/distro can offer decent (hydraulic) disc brakes bundled in furthest down their OEM ranges. All the bike manufacturers will be in a race to hang as much VFM as they can on a handful of aluminium frames at various price points.

But I reckon It won’t be a battle over how many clicks the rear shifter has this time, it’s going to be brakes and maybe tyres (TR wheels also?) that swing the deal. I also fully expect the VFM battles to put another nail in the front mech’s coffin, certainly on MTBs and gravel bikes, N/W rings are substantially cheaper if you’re speccing a bike build.

I also reckon we’ll see more bikes pitched at the C2W abusers and correspondingly companies (maybe HMRC too?) tightening up their C2W spend limits and rules.

A nice simple bike like 90’s mtb seems a hugely desirable thing right now. A proper 90’s mtb though, not one of those imitation things with a rigid fork and funny curly bars.

Those curly barred contraptions are going to do pretty well out of the coming storm 😉

I think the dropping of mechanical higher end groupsets such as XT and Ultegra is going to be a problem that the buying public might see as a step too far. I have no reason not to continue using 11spd M8000 and R8000 on my bikes, but I will not be best pleased when spares become hard to get. Do I downgrade to lower level components or be forced to take the massive hit of going 12spd electronic? As I said, I think that is a point when a lot of people will give up given the cost these days – unfortunately. Previous new groupsets didn’t force you to make such a massive step change.

Shimano ditch SLX as deore is so good why bother with slx. XT still has the features of xtr for less cash

I think Amanda might have got close with heated saddles on e bikes…. As heated grips are a marvellous thing on motorbikes.

so perhaps E bikes with a bunch of usb ports for plugging in heated grips, mega lumen lights, panini press…. That sort of thing.

Yep the value group set seems to be a no brainier. It’s interesting that not being shimano might be an advantage. It’s like fitting Acera but no one quite sure because it’s something we can’t immediately place on a scale

The gap for me is a budget combined shifter and hydraulic brake lever for gravel or cross bike

I like the idea of reversible tyres. I’m not sure it’ll work. But I like that it’s an actual idea rather than trend spotting

Gravel bike will continue to evolve towards mountain bikes. Having just read a book of gravel rides recently there is clearly a market for bikes that communicate your not out for the gnarr. However bigger tyres and wider bars still have a place riding across a map. So bikes like the rigid Frontier in this months magazine

my predictions

1. A major bike brand (like Cannondale or Kona) will out of business, or maybe bought up by one of the massive holding companies at a knock down price

2. More and more bikes will be “integrated” and things like putting the cables through headset route will come down further down the price point, both big S brands have brakes that have hose routed closer to the bar that will help that clean look.

3. Like the recent specialised one, other companies will cull their “non core” marketing.

3. Racing: I think more than one “large” racing team will drop out citing reduction in marketing budgets.

4. Racing: An all Continental tyre podium

5. Racing: Greg will retire

6. Racing: Jackson Goldstone will still be effing fast in the seniors, I think he may even get on the podium.

Cannondale’s main problem back then was wasting millions of dollars on a motorbike.

Facebook has this year given the middle finger to publishers like us

How so? Tell us more…

Mark has posted in great detail in the forum about this recently…

Eg https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/changes-in-online-behaviours-over-last-three-years/

Those tires that Amanda wants already exist. We used to this with tires when racing indoor BMX on concrete with wood jumps and ramps. Yes you need a tube, but I think you can do this easily with just about any light knobby or hybrid tire. I think that she should try it in the name of science journalism.

I missed that Kona story . Makes me wonder for their future, does this mean the bean counters are now in control ? I remember the disastrous tie in with Halfords that trashed their reputation for years afterwards.

Singlespeed never went away. Although I’ve never run rigid – steel hardtail with a modest-travel bouncer on the front for me.

In that vein, I predict the fast, steel XC hardtail will see a return. As more adventure bikes move from drop bars to flat bars, and become even more like ’90’s MTBs, people will realise/remember how quick and responsive steel frames that don’t have to be burly enough for big forks and big impacts can be. I’m not talking flat bar race machines, but bikes for fast fun in the twisty stuff and big miles in the hills, 100-120mm forks. Cotic have already gone there with the new Solaris, Fairlight have the gorgeous looking Holt incoming. A big manufacturer will follow – a modern Kona Explosif anyone?

I’m also going to combine one each of Amanda and Hannah’s predictions, and say that we’re going to see heated handguards. Or maybe just motorbike-style heated grips, per Charlie’s comment. Anyhow, heated insoles are a godsend for feet when it gets properly cold, so someone is going to treat our hands to similar luxury.

You also missed Mark predicting the downfall of Twitter, and the rise of distributed platforms like Mastodon:

There will be a slow transition away from platform based, so called communities and back towards real, and in many ways more independent platforms out of a realisation that the big tech companies are not in fact there to help us connect, but to exploit us for ad impressions.

He’s right, just the timing will be a bit later than 2022.

I predict more new non-standard ‘standards’ to try to make even more bikes obsolete

(The industry has been doing it for 15+ years now – no way they will have any concerns for end users in 2023)

I predict the fast, steel XC hardtail will see a return

Have they ever gone away?

^ There’s a couple I can think of, Cannondale F-Si and now the Scalpel HT has been doing the XCO race bike with trail geometry mix thing well for a while and the Specialized Chisel looks great.
Not steel, but mainstream brands rarely are. tbh as much as I like steel bikes I’d rather have a good Al frame for a bike like that. Lighter, cheaper, can be made as comfy as you’d need it to be. Post above about a new Kona Explosif in light steel is spot on though. That would be great to see.

I’m with those worried about the eletrification of transmission systems.
I’ve met riders like Andy who’ve been able to continue riding because of ebikes and it was an epiphany a great leveller.
I want to see the return of rigid fatties, but as that’s what I currently ride it’s not going to effect me that much, I’m just worried about getting upgrades for my current steed.
Finally, no one mentioned the return of the 26″ wheel, like the steel hardtail band, I just love what I grew up with.

I predict more new non-standard ‘standards’ to try to make even more bikes obsolete

Apart from a few years in the nighties and perhaps coincidentally between about 2012-15, bicycles have never been standard. Accept it and move on.

It’s a weird one, I often found that the folks complaining that hubs aren’t 135mm are exactly the same people who want some low production run rear wheel based gearbox system that’s only made in Outer Monrovia by Otto the mechanic and his dog Russel. They often cannot see the obvious double standard.

I predict an increase in indoor e-biking (Zwft type stuff)

I honestly can’t tell if this is satire or not.

😀

I predict more riders cutting their cloth and dropping down to cheaper transmission parts – including 10 and 11-speed – as the cost of living stays high and they realise there’s hardly any difference to the posh stuff in use.

Carnage in the bike market. The supply chain is in bits, and I predict many going bust, buy outs etc. BIG shakeup of the bike industry just around the corner. Hold on tight folks!

Worrying prediction, do you think many brands were too optimistic in the Covid boom? Or just cashflow/supply chain problems making firms vulnerable?