According to Fore live there’s a survation poll coming out at 930 tonight.

10.30 here https://twitter.com/Survation

“Very interesting” apparently

.

Actually, looking at those 74 results it occurs to me that Facha is all Scotland’s fault. Unintended consequences.

@bigjim – I shouldn’t scaremonger, I am sure Scottish lenders would work with their UK counterparts to transfer the debt. In my case I was pissed as 1) I’d paid an arrangement fee for a special rate which I couldn’t match 2) I’d moved jobs and actually replacing the loan at all was quite difficult, it looked quite dire at one stage that I could match the loan size at all. The small print of my mortgage allowed the lender to requirement to repay it at 3 months notice at any time in special circumstances (like them deciding to exit the business), I imagine a lot of loans are like that.

If you believe Lie News, parliament may be recalled for an emergency debate in the event of a Yes vote. I wonder what they might do? Pass emergency legislation? Disolve itself and hold a snap general election? Or just waffle in shock?

Try and make the plan they never actually had!

Survation 6% lead to No

I wouldn’t call that a ‘very interesting’ result.

. Most recently of course was in 2010

A coalition with the majority of voters and the majority of seats in England is the same as one that has a minority of seats and votes in Scotland??
Its much worse for Scotland IMHO
Interesting though as the scottish votes change it from a tory govt [[ majority of 20] to a coalition meaning no one got what they wanted. You sure that Union works well 😉

64 _ yes that is correct
74a- requires welsh votes – Scotland alone did not sway the vote – but splitting hairs/ pedantic / accurate there but certainly England was outvoted by the rUK but not scotland alone.
74 b – no labour won in scotland england and wales*

So actually all things considered it doesn’t seem Scotland suffers that much of a democratic deficit compared to England when it’s got the government it voted for 13 times out of 20 against 17 times out of 20. That’s 3 times where the wishes of 50 odd million have been overruled by 5 million.

You claimed 4 and then claim three – either way both figures are wrong

IMHO it is a big difference and it can only grow as every non labour govt will lead to the figure growing for scotland. Interesting though as it is reasonable to say swings and roundabouts but it still favours england – inevitable really as it is massive in comparison.
For example you wont find a govt that only has one seat in England – it is not possible
Cheer though

EDIT
* they had the most seats [simple] majority but not an actual majority[ 50% + pf seats] on second looking
All the england loses , whilst true, are not as sever as one MP and a tory led govt though …it may just be possible that I hate tories though 😉

I wouldn’t call that a ‘very interesting’ result.

I did put quote marks around that statement.

74a- requires welsh votes – Scotland alone did not sway the vote

Overall Tory Majority in England, no overall majority in England and Scotland whether or not you include Wales. Admittedly no overall majority in England and Wales combined, but close enough that they might have formed a government with Unionist support, or would probably have been able to manage as a minority government – though England and Wales combined is kind of irrelevant as the question is whether England got the government it voted for (or do I have to go through the records and see how often Scotland and Wales combined got the government it voted for? 😯 )

74 b – no labour won in scotland england and wales*

Would have required a coalition in England, no majority. Though in any case without Scotland that election would have never happened…

I think we can comfortably call that 3, though it probably makes sense to only claim one for ’74 which leaves us with two if you want to discard 2010. So democratic deficit for England is 50 million times 2, democratic deficit for Scotland is 5 million times 7. As always, Scotland does a lot better than claimed if you examine the figures properly 😉

I wouldn’t call that a ‘very interesting’ result.

Well it’s quite interesting in the context of BT panicking because they think they’re about to lose. Though I suspect most people now trust the polls even less than they trust AS.

The Survation poll is interesting like all polls – it puts Yes up 1% compared to the last Survation poll, but 6% behind, so still some work to do – but like all recent polls it puts the two sides basically neck and neck within the margins of error.

One thing which will be interesting to analyse later is whether the polling method (Survation use landline phone calls) skews the results and whether that’s sufficiently accounted for. I’ve read reports that the Survation poll has unusually low Yes support form younger people compared to other recent polls, which may be down to low landline usage.

What’ll be interesting is a poll done after today’s definitely-not-panicking visits from the party leaders.

Ben you are wrong about the survation polling method and the margin or error Link
Survation use online polls, face to face interviews and phone polls using landlines that use “targeted lifestyle data for specific younger age brackets are called, to achieve a broad sample of ages”.
The 1% increase for the no campaign is in the margins of error, the 6% lead is not though.

As always, Scotland does a lot better than claimed if you examine the figures properly 😉

I will leave that one for TJ :

PS I LOL ed

Depends what polling method the client has ordered I guess – face to face interviews would be more expensive than telephone.

The weighting is where I think maybe all polling companies are in uncharted waters – this is looking like it’ll have a very high turnout, lots of people who have never voted before, and I’m not convinced the polling companies can weight accurately for that effect.

It’ll be an interesting week 😉

This un be an online panel

What most surprises me is that there are still undecided voters! This has been discussed to death. Do any Scots know any undecided voters?

Why is that surprising? For some people the advantages and disadvantages of each option are closely in balance – just as they are for the country as a whole. Is there never anything you have difficulty in making a decision about despite lots of information?

So after two weeks no change, except one poll published by ????

The dirty arts of strategic communication and manipulation at play???? The smell gets bigger and bigger

All the latest bllx from the panicking leaders probably unnecessary had the dirty digger not published that poll. Hmmmmmm…….

I am undecided

Do any Scots know any undecided voters?

yes, me. No idea why you think it would be black and white. I can see many advantages in being independent but some life changing potential negatives, mostly around boring but essential things like money, mortgages and jobs. Also I’ve found the yes campaign very unpleasant, heavily based on lies, ignorance, aggression and I feel a struggle to put my name against it. I’ve been leaning no in the last few weeks but today more in the yes side of things.

What you can’t decide either way? What are your concerns?

Thm, can you elaborate a bit more please?

Yes simple…ignore all polls during the past 2 week and what has actually changed between beginning and end of the period?

In what publication was the one poll that had everyone in spin published?

What has the owner of that publication been up to over the past few days?

In the meantime, Scots get a new series of concessions and panicking leaders offering to distort the democratic picture across the UK. Strategic communications anyone??

Of course, it could just be complete coincidence.

What you can’t decide either way? What are your concerns?

Can’t be bothered typing it all out as it’s late and I’m tired, but in a nutshell I was born here and have never lived anywhere else apart from when travelling, love the place and it would break my heart to see the place go to the dogs, at the moment I’d rather not have to leave for job or financial reasons either though there are other places I would live fairly happily if I had to. There are certainly massive uncertainties around finance and the ensuing web of things related to that, despite the utopian vision/blinkers of many fanatical yes types. I doubt many people working in finance, oil and gas or other lynchpin industries will be voting yes.

On the other hand I’m no great fan of being governed by westminster, especially tory rule, and I’m sure things could be done better, and I don’t think the current shower of wet blankets in opposition are going to set anything on fire any time soon. I think there is a lot of potential in scotland but we also have a lot of problems and potential problems.

Also as I said the Yes campaign has been really unappealing to me, I’ve never read so much nonsense going around and can’t believe people get sucked in by it, just makes me think of Bush or UKIP type campaigning. Some of the stuff posted on facebook is really loony but people just seem to share it blindly. Some of the stuff on here is worse! I find it really repellant and don’t want to associate with it.

There you have the decision making process of somebody who is actually informed in a nutshell <applause>

Edit

Ah sorry, yes of course thanks. I’ve followed your posts which (for me) have been informative and matter of fact. Its interesting what you point out, I live in Scotland and we discuss independence in work on a daily basis and so far there is one undecided and the rest are no. However I suppose we are the ‘minority’.

Nicely put Jim, I work in one of the sectors you mention and as you say its a widespread no.

RBS and Lloyds are off!

How many jobs is that?

I have savings in some Scottish-based companies (e.g. Scottish Widows). Should I sell those now in order to avoid being caught up in the maelstrom?

Ninfan, yes confirmed. Rbs and Lloyd’s to relocate their HQs upon a yes vote. Wowsers.

Source for the claim please- Link etc

treasury via itv news here

Wowsers? Surely the banks relocating HQs was one of the most obvious thing to happen – as explained many hundreds of pages back, the regulatory systems pretty much require them to do that.

I wonder what other things will happen which the yes supporters have been describing as the no campaign attempting to bully or mislead.

Ah of course the ones that the UK taxpayers own

Makes sense

I don’t think we’ve done this one:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29151280

Junkyard – lazarus
I thought people in Scotland could vote for the government in the UK elections too.

They can but the votes in England decide what govt they got and [ almost always] what govt everyone gets hence the debate

This is a massive over simplification. Like saying the UK gets the government it votes for. I have never felt that inner cities across Northern England dictate the government I get.

ninfan – Member

RBS and Lloyds are off!

How many jobs is that?

Relocating a HQ? Potentially, 1 😉 Lloyds Bank is actually already headquartered in London

It’s a likely outcome, but let’s wait a little since your source says they’re “following standard life” despite standard life not having said they’re going anywhere. It’s a good headline but the detail will be what counts.

If there are two things we’d love to give back to Scotland it would be RBS and HBOS, sadly they are relocating HQ to UK it seems.

Re THM’s point on Murdoch, £100m++ in legal fees and settlements for hacking, £11m redundancy to Brookes alone. Shut down NoW his most profitable paper at a cost of many £10m’s … the guy has always had an agenda now it’s off the scales, if he can stick one to the UK he will plus show everyone he is still able to influence politics.