Osbourne says no to currency union.

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  • Osbourne says no to currency union.
  • Premier Icon jambalaya
    Subscriber

    The GF is back in Paris, quite a lot of coverage of the referendum on tv there, which is a good thing I think. The French dont really understand why the Scots would want to break away. They did comment on the currency wrt EU saying Scotland would not be given an exception like the UK to use the £ within the Eau and that they would have to wait there turn to be considered for membership. They also noted the political difficulty of accepting Scotland and the problems that would give France and Spain wrt Basque and Catalans

    big_n_daft
    Member

    They did comment on the currency wrt EU saying Scotland would not be given an exception like the UK to use the £ within the Eau and that they would have to wait there turn to be considered for membership. They also noted the political difficulty of accepting Scotland and the problems that would give France and Spain wrt Basque and Catalans

    French media in “crainte de projet” (hopes google translate is working) conspiracy 😉

    Premier Icon aracer
    Subscriber

    despite standard life not having said they’re going anywhere.

    Do you really still think this is just scaremongering:
    http://www.standardlife.com/utility/customer_statement-2.html

    I note they try very hard to appear impartial by talking about “uncertainty”, “precautionary measures”, “planning for new regulated companies” and “we could transfer”, but they then go on to say that they would
    “ensure:

    All transactions with customers outside of Scotland continue to be in Sterling (money paid in and money paid out)
    All customers outside of Scotland continue to be part of the UK tax regime
    All customers outside of Scotland continue to be covered by existing consumer protection and regulatory arrangements e.g. the Financial Services Compensation Scheme and Financial Conduct Authority”

    Maybe you could explain how they would ensure that their customers’ accounts remain within the UK tax regime and covered by the FSCA and FCA when those accounts aren’t in the UK? This is a done deal – there is no doubt at all about it.

    Premier Icon Northwind
    Subscriber

    aracer – Member

    Do you really still think this is just scaremongering:

    No, I think it’s extremely clearly worded. If they wanted to say “we’re offski”, they would have managed I think, in about 500 less words.

    And when I say clearly worded, I mean things like

    aracer – Member
    they then go on to say that they would “ensure:

    when in fact they don’t say they would- they say they could. So the rest of your post is just based on a misreading/misrepresentation. Maybe the latter since you started quoting immediately after the bit you don’t like?

    Tom_W1987
    Member

    when in fact they don’t say they would- they say they could.

    I’m not sure why they would say the “could” if that wasn’t their intention anyway.

    konabunny
    Member

    You’re right. I don’t see why Scotland would need a large functioning army. In reality the rUK would never allow Scotland to be invaded by a foreign power anyway so there’s really no need. Far better to have an arrangement whereby the rUK defends Scotland in the event of an agressor attacking, and Scotland pays for the protection, with some sort of ongoing contribution acting as a retainer.

    Maybe there could be some sort of organisation of countries that feel similarly on the topic and are located around the North Atlantic? They could record their agreement in some sort of treaty. 😀

    What most surprises me is that there are still undecided voters! This has been discussed to death. Do any Scots know any undecided voters?

    I’m not sure…

    “We’re keeping the pound” is meaningless? Is English your first language? The statement may be wrong but it certainly isn’t meaningless. Still, that would explain why other simple English phrases like “fairer society” are beyond your comprehension.

    oooooOOOOOOOOOOOooooo!

    Tom_W1987
    Member

    My own personal feeling is that some companies may leave Scotland in the event of a yes vote, but that will be dwarded by the amount of financial companies **** on off up to Edinburgh if we hold a referendum on EU membership. That is, if Scotland gains a place within the EU.

    bencooper
    Member

    Yup, Wall St banks are already making contingency plans to leave London if the UK leaves the EU.

    Premier Icon aracer
    Subscriber

    No, I think it’s extremely clearly worded.

    Yes, as I pointed out before, extremely clearly worded so as not to appear that they are taking sides.

    when in fact they don’t say they would- they say they could. So the rest of your post is just based on a misreading/misrepresentation. Maybe the latter since you started quoting immediately after the bit you don’t like?

    My misreading/misrepresantation? 😯 You seem to be the one who is interpreting the “could” to apply to “ensure”, when the extremely careful wording you point out actually says “to ensure”. See my careful cutting also removed the crucial “to” (to avoid any doubt, I cut the bit referring to what they could do, because I was only referring to the aims and it would have been confusing). They list all the things they could do “to ensure” those things – I don’t think there is any doubt over their intentions to ensure them. Or do you actually think that with all this planning they’re doing they might think “nah, we won’t bother ensuring that”?

    Oh, and just in case there was any doubt, the very last sentence goes:
    “The plans we have put in place will help to ensure continuity”

    teamhurtmore
    Member

    aracer – Member
    Wowsers? Surely the banks relocating HQs was one of the most obvious thing to happen – as explained many hundreds of pages back, the regulatory systems pretty much require them to do that.

    Indeed and confirmed from the horses mouth many pages back, but this of course is mere bluster according to yS supporters.

    The grown ups are coming out of the shadows now and being v clear on consequence and yet this is all dismissed as “nonsense” by the DO. The one good thing about him is that he is nearly always looking in the mirror when talking so when comments like nonsense, bullying etc are made you know the real reason – it is a simple reflection of himself.

    teamhurtmore
    Member

    The FT editorial this morning sums it up well

    The?case?for?union is overwhelming. The path of separation is a fool’s errand

    Quite.

    Premier Icon nickc
    Subscriber

    RBS and Lloyds are off!

    How many jobs is that?

    Probably very very Few. Being legally based in London, and having your offices, call centres, processing, etc etc somewhere else isn’t a massive issue.

    andermt
    Member

    Just over 3,000 for RBS (assuming this architecture website is correct)

    Royal Bank of Scotland – Gogarburn, RBS Edinburgh | RBS HQ

    konabunny
    Member

    but the point is that you don’t need to have the workers anywhere near where the company is formally headquartered.

    oldnpastit
    Member

    Probably affects where you pay corporation tax though.

    Premier Icon muddydwarf
    Subscriber

    Reported in the i today that Salmond will fast track Scotland’s entry into the Eurovision Song Contest.
    Nice to see he has his priorities right, no idea of what currency will be used, Capital Flight already happening but hey, you’re going to be in Eurovision!

    bencooper
    Member

    Probably affects where you pay corporation tax though.

    And which government has to bail you out when it goes pear-shaped again.

    teamhurtmore
    Member

    Given the scale of the buildings being looked out, there will be a “reasonable” number re-locating.

    The tax issue is important too. The highly paid, high tax payers tend to be more mobile and couple that with reducing corporate tax and the DOs numbers soon fall over – not that they were their in the first place. As we have already seen, he may well end up out austeritying, austerity george! But then again he does like getting on the RW of Thatcherites every now and again.

    KB is correct about the theory, the key things are location of HQ and whether you are a branch or a subsidiary. The intangible is whether clients perceive a difference in physical location. Judging by the contingency planning they do hence the Grossart sensitivity yesterday!

    konabunny
    Member

    Probably affects where you pay corporation tax though.

    you pay tax where you earn profit – and evil multinationals amazingly seem to earn money in completely different place to their employees and sales and suppliers. funny huh?

    teamhurtmore
    Member

    bencooper – Member
    Probably affects where you pay corporation tax though.
    And which government has to bail you out when it goes pear-shaped again.

    Free riding again, Ben?!? 😉

    bencooper
    Member

    I think the banks know a compliant tax and regulation regime when they see one.

    teamhurtmore
    Member

    Exactly and where did they locate – remember AS view on heavy handed regulation in the UK? Or was “Mr Light Touch come and play in my back yard” just flapping in the wind once again. The serpent twists that one very well, doesn’t he?

    Flip, flop, flip, flop….

    bencooper
    Member

    Who made the announcement about RBS and Lloyds? The Treasury. Who owns most of RBS and a lot of Lloyds? The Treasury. Who does the Treasury work for? George Osborne.

    This isn’t some impartial business decision, it’s as political as it gets. The big guns are going all out to prevent a Yes vote, and the media are doing their best to help.

    teamhurtmore
    Member

    Actually might have to re-think the dirty digger conspiracy theory (someone else is manipulating the polls). The Times leading with Financial Turmoil hits Scotland on the front page.

    Perhaps, he just long currency vol like me and making mischief to suit his position?!? 😉

    oldbloke
    Member

    This isn’t some impartial business decision, it’s as political as it gets.

    I think you fail to understand the very onerous obligations on listed companies in relation to information provision. This sort of stuff has a high degree of share price sensitivity and investors know what it means. It can only be published if it genuinely is what current management will do. Unlike the politicians, directors of such companies face very serious consequences for misleading.

    Junkyard
    Member

    muddydwarf wrote:

    Reported in the i today that Salmond will fast track Scotland’s entry into the Eurovision Song Contest.
    Nice to see he has his priorities right, no idea of what currency will be used, Capital Flight already happening but hey, you’re going to be in Eurovision!

    Aye it is just not possible that the media , and your good self, has an agenda. It is quite unlikely that this is the prime issues that he has been wrestling with.

    Its about the weakest and most pointless personal attack there has been on AS and that is some achievement.

    Premier Icon YoKaiser
    Subscriber

    Can I ask a question re the currency union? If understand it correctly then the UK debt is non transferable to another country and if Scotland becomes independent then the only way Scotland could pay it’s share is via a union. Is this right enough?

    teamhurtmore
    Member

    I think you will find that CEOs need no encouragement to defend their interests and those are clear. The neutrality is slipping for sure. Why? Because this is serious and there is a real risk of an outcome that is not in anyone’s eventual interest. Even E2R has intervened with a subtlety that only the palace knows how, ditto the Bank of England. This is more than squeaky bum time (although he’s there as well), it’s serious politics and business. The stakes have been raised.

    The business community are saying WTF, people may well be stupid enough to swallow this BS and are belatedly reacting. But emotions have always overwhelmed reality and truth as they did with the euro project. Reality comes back to bite you on the backside at some stage though.

    bencooper
    Member

    Can I ask a question re the currency union? If understand it correctly then the UK debt is non transferable to another country and if Scotland becomes independent then the only way Scotland could pay it’s share is via a union. Is this right enough?

    Scotland would never be paying a share of the debt, as the debt is in the UK’s name – Scotland would be paying the UK in exchange for assets, and those payments would assist the UK to pay off the debt.

    teamhurtmore
    Member

    You are correct – Ben isn’t (edited for cross post*) – you cannot physically separate outstanding debt obligations. HM T made that clear earlier in the year. The rUK would stand behind the outstanding debt. This is why it is a technical issue. An iS would make a financial contribution that is equivalent to the debt (ie, principal and interest) the only question is how much (tbc) and how to structure it (a big break one-off payment (unlikely) or a series of payments). Off to meetings now, but may dig out links explaining how this will work.

    Essentially you replace debt with a loan and financial transfers.

    Even yS has published stuff explaining this – it’s not hard to find with google.

    * settling the debt is nothing to do with assets (at least in the strict sense) that is a yS smokescreen and part of the BS debate. Everyone has received a benefit from the debt outstanding and therefore have an obligation towards repaying it. A country that takes the benefit but then reneges on the obligation to pay back, is in effect defaulting. The FC knows this, AS knows this, the rest is smoke and mirrors.

    Premier Icon muddydwarf
    Subscriber

    Junkyard – I want you to bugger off remember?
    I just think AS and Co are selling a very dodgy package. Considering this is the SNP’s lifes work it really appears to be built on smoke and mirrors & you deserve more Tha that before you make your choice.

    Premier Icon NZCol
    Subscriber

    Most of the majors have contingency in place for a Yes, some of it is around company structures and some of it is job related. These aren’t, as AS would have us believe, idle threats – I helped write one of them and they are doing it as the period of uncertainty will debase their business so they are shoring it up. You can’t argue that a 2 year negotiation period will not be healthy for anyone. And this is a non government owned business and large employer. The mood is dark, very much more so after being tainted with the view that if you are minded to No then you are essentially siding with Westminster. WTF, no means I disagree with the breakup of the union, i spent 5 hours driving listening to the Yes camp claim it wasn’t about politics. Next day, its about politics.

    Premier Icon epicyclo
    Subscriber

    Aaargh, I go for a wee coast to coast ride in the Highlands, and when I come back we still haven’t decided how many angels fit on a pinhead.

    What does stand out is the paucity of No signs and the profusion of Yes. I did try counting for a while and it was about 10:1 over 120 miles.

    I managed to find a No voter though. I was talking to him at a food kiosk while wolfing down 2 lunches. A Daily Mail reader. I suggested he look at what is planned for him if we vote No, eg Boris, Farage, and the whole list of politicians in England who have voiced their opinion on stripping Scotland of funding.

    I think I left him as a Don’t Know. If he does look up what those guys have said, I think he’ll become a Yes. 🙂

    Premier Icon molgrips
    Subscriber

    I suggested he look at what is planned for him if we vote No, eg Boris, Farage

    FFS

    Premier Icon jambalaya
    Subscriber

    I think the banks know a compliant tax and regulation regime when they see one.

    @ben as it stands there are no plans for a regulatory regime in Scotland so its hard to see how you’ll have any banks or financial services at all.

    If RBS etc do move the HQ permanently it will only be matter of time before the majority those staff move too.

    Debt: IMO Scotland will agree to be responsible for a portion of the interest and principal currently payable, eg 9% of total. They will make these payments to the UK Treasury on an agreed schedule. From the point of independence they will start to borrow in their own name for additional amounts (eg budget deficit, capital expenditure), they could borrow via “private loans” with the UK or other lenders or by “public” bond markets. In all liklihood they will begin via private loans whilst they establish their own presence although they will need a Treasury/Central Bank to do this. Even if Scotland can convince lenders it is a high credit quality country the cost of this new borrowing will be higher than the UK due to the “newness” and small size of the Scottish economy

    Premier Icon jambalaya
    Subscriber

    @epic clearly signs are not a good indicator of intentions as the vote is something like 40/40/20 (Yes, No, Don’t Know)

    Premier Icon Northwind
    Subscriber

    RBS:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29151798

    “It is my view as chief executive that any decision to move our registered headquarters would have no impact on our everyday banking services used by our customers in Scotland.

    “This is a technical procedure regarding the rotation of our registered head office based on our current strategy and business plan. It is not an intention to move operations or jobs”.

    And Lloyds

    “Lloyds Banking Group said it could also shift its legal home to its headquarters, which is already in London.

    However, Lloyds said this was just a legal procedure and “there would be no immediate changes or issues”.

    So… Is it just me or is this largely good news for Yes? A scary headline, sure. Everyone knows these are multinational organisations, the idea of a “Scottish bank”‘s been absurd for years. And as I mentioned last night, Lloyds Banking is actually already based in London. So there might be a small scale migration of jobs, potentially some pretty high value, but mostly it’s a wholesale migration of risk, no? Tax continues to be paid (in theory) where the business is done and (in practice) where the company feels like paying it. And now the RUK gets to be lender of last resort whether they want to or not.

    Lloyds, unless things changed a lot since I worked there, was already run from its HQ in London. And while we were being Better Together a load of HBOS jobs migrated to Gillingham and Halifax already (including mine)

    Oh. In unrelated news, today the Scotsman came out in favour of No. Which is quite a shock.

    BruceWee
    Member

    Oh. In unrelated news, today the Scotsman came out in favour of No. Which is quite a shock.

    I know. I haven’t been quite so shocked since I heard the news that Graham Norton was gay.

    Premier Icon bigjim
    Subscriber

    I have savings in some Scottish-based companies (e.g. Scottish Widows). Should I sell those now in order to avoid being caught up in the maelstrom?

    No idea, I asked something similar and epicyclo on here said he has moved his money overseas, and he is a frothing yes voter. I’ve not got much but I still don’t want to lose it. I can’t even figure out if my bank is actually scottish, or british, or what!

    big_n_daft
    Member

    I managed to find a No voter though. I was talking to him at a food kiosk while wolfing down 2 lunches. A Daily Mail reader. I suggested he look at what is planned for him if we vote No, eg Boris, Farage, and the whole list of politicians in England who have voiced their opinion on stripping Scotland of funding.

    I think I left him as a Don’t Know. If he does look up what those guys have said, I think he’ll become a Yes.

    Success for project feart then

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