Will used car prices crash in the next year?

But you £4k car is likely to be worth at least £3.5k a year later, it won’t depreciate like the much newer car. You might even turn a profit!

In the very likely event you can’t sell it privately, you are only going to get a trade price selling to a dealer so you’ll probably lose much more than £3k.  And what’s it gonna cost for a new tyre or something terrible like a gearbox problem?!

All I’m saying is that e.g. buying a £35k car and selling it for £32k

If you bought this “£35k car” today, how much would a dealer buy it off you tomorrow (never mind further down the line)? Start there… if it’s £40k… crack on… if it’s already £32k or less… then there you are.

If it helps focus the mind, my mate bought an Audi S4 about 18 months ago for £32k had ‘faultless’ motoring in that time other than an expensive service.

When his new company car turned up, he offered it on motorway and got an offer of £24k, which he was OK with being as he’d used it plenty and the general market downturn.  The buyers turned up and plugged diagnostic into it before completing, and it turned up an engine fault that the local Indy specialist said could be up to £8k to fix!  It’s still sitting on his driveway now!

buy it

In a world where a Kia Frottage is considered a luxury vehicle, I seriously wouldn’t bother. Am old enough to remember when luxury was a Bentley. Buy something well made at the point it just reaches the bottom of its depreciation curve. Only run what you can afford to fix or replace without it causing a crisis, anything else is a mugs game.

In a world where a Kia Frottage is considered a luxury vehicle

Fairly certain that’s just on here.

You can roll it in glitter and stick lipstick on it but that kia ain’t no luxury car.

Fwiw I wouldn’t the 35k car especially as it’s about to tick over the 5 year mark which marks the start of the second line of depreciation.

Years 1 is high. Once it starts needing mot it drops another good chunk and then 5-7 years it plummets again pretty badly as warranties ain’t worth shit buy then.

And the old adege of luxury cars. If you couldn’t afford it new. You sure as hell can’t afford to run it old.

Here’s a suggestion – buy the car off your acquaintance for the £2-3,000 you were prepared to spend, with the promise to send him the sale proceeds when you sell it in 6-9 months (or the insurance payout if it gets written off).

Lastly – buying from friend / acquaintance is the last thing I would ever do again.

That seems like a bizarre comment.  If you can agree a fair price, and they’re actually an honest friend, you’ve got far more accurate info about the cars history and any issues than you’d ever get via a dealer or other private seller.

If it goes wrong subsequently that’s not on your friend – just bad luck.

(I sold my old car to another Mtb-er on here on the same basis. Most bizarre sale I’ve had was a set of Shokz earphones on Ebay and the buyer said they broke a few weeks later – I offered a full refund and they refused and said they were happy to suck it up)

What is it?

“But you £4k car is likely to be worth at least £3.5k a year later, it won’t depreciate like the much newer car. You might even turn a profit!

In the very likely event you can’t sell it privately, you are only going to get a trade price selling to a dealer so you’ll probably lose much more than £3k.  And what’s it gonna cost for a new tyre or something terrible like a gearbox problem?!”

Up until last month I had a car that goes for £3-4k. Then it developed a transmission fault that’s known to be £2k to fix (at best). I sold it to WBAC for £1300…

You seem pretty set on buying it so just crack on. The majority of responses are against doing so for very good reason. I think you’re deluded if you think a 4 yr old car will likely lose so little in the next 6-9mths. What was it’s list price 4 years ago? What did matey buy it for? What sort of vehicle is it ? (I’d sort of get your reasoning if it’s a Macan)

If it’s really ten times what you can afford to spend on a car, where’s the other 90% coming from?

And at what cost? Please include that in your calculations. And insurance & servicing costs. Then do the comparison.

Also:

ll I’m saying is that e.g. buying a £35k car and selling it for £32k would leave me in the same place as buying a £4k car and selling it for £1k, with added advantage of it not being ancient and a wreck. There are no cheap cars any more.

Why do you expect one car to lose 9% but the other to lose 75% of their value?

As far as I can see you’re risking a massive potential downside, and presumably borrowing costs, for the chance to drive a car you know you can’t afford for 6-9 months. With no exit plan.

Up until last month I had a car that goes for £3-4k. Then it developed a transmission fault that’s known to be £2k to fix (at best). I sold it to WBAC for £1300…

And in 6-9 months you could have. A transmission fault in a 35k car….

Buy something well made at the point it just reaches the bottom of its depreciation curve

What does this mean? Buy it when it’s worthless?

It’s a no from me as well, your emigrating mate isn’t doing you any favours with this deal, you are taking all the risk; if you need a car buy something in your price bracket not theirs. A Kia is the kind of thing that could easily do a heavy depreciation drop or just not sell, you would have to sell it privately to get a high price for it and so you need to be really confident you can flip it quick and at the price you want.

Buy it when it’s worthless?

No, good desirable cars will retain a decent baseline of value, which if its properly desirable and not just needless luxury it may even increase that baseline. The smart money’s on letting someone else take the daft part of the depreciation curve out of it for you. Its been a while since simply being ‘new’ was synonymous with better, unless one has a particular penchant for vehicles that can be stolen off the driveway in 20 seconds flat without a key for example….

OP – what happens in 9 months when you don’t need the car but you need the money from the sale and there’s no interest in it at a sale price of £32,000, you start to panic because you really need the money now, you drop it again to £30,000 and there’s still no interest? So it’s sat there, still being insured (which won’t be cheap) – do you stick or twist? How low could you afford to go as an absolute minimum and what happens if it still doesn’t sell?

I honestly can’t see anything but madness in this idea.

If you are planning on selling it privately then don’t bother. From my experience people don’t like spending big sums without garage back up. You’ll end up selling it at PX price to a dealer.

If you are factoring selling it for PX price then it makes more sense. Still wouldn’t though.

Your mate is either deluded or trying to rip you off. If I’ve read your post correctly he’s offering you the amazing opportunity to buy a car at the same price you could buy one from a dealer but with none of the protection that would offer – if he doesn’t sell to you for 35k his other option is WBAC for 30k or even less (we really need to know the make , model and spec here)

at least he can spend the money you’re borrowing to gift him on business class seats for his flught!

I think you should up your game and find something for £100k at least. Why not also offer to pay the dealer some extra on top?

It’ll be worth borrowing the extra money if you need to, because in 6 to 9 months the £100k car will probably only have lost £10 whereas if you bought something, you know, sensible, for about £4k, then that will most probably have lost all of its value for no good reason.

And it wouldn’t be anywhere near as exciting gambling only £4k either. Think of all the fun you’ll have taking all that risk!

I also hear that investing in blockbusters is also a good idea at the moment

Yea, you’re mad as everyone else has said.

I bought a Berlingo with 3 days MOT left for £625, and it did ~25000miles in 18months for work.  That’s what “I need a car for 9 months” looks like.

Why are you considering paying dealer prices for a private sale? If you really want to spend all that money, stick the details into WBAC and then knock loads off for every little scuff and chip like they would. That’s the realistic private sale value.

OP: all the advice is either don’t do it at all –  or do it for below the WBAC price if you are willing to take a risk.

Personally I think the best advice is say no. None of your man-maths adds up.

Sounds like a great idea to me. Will provide several highly entertaining threads over the next year or two. I say crack on! What could possibly go wrong?

Aside ftom multiple good reasons NOT  to buy already mentioned, Your finance payments on 35k will be huge won’t they? You’ll also need gap insurance because any crash/knock etc and you’ll get less than you paid. All sounds real risky.

Hadn’t realised the OP was paying full whack for it! In that case you’d be insane and will lose lots of money.

Car depreciation curves look like this, mostly:

Big hit first, then steady decline, then it flattens out.  So from 4 to 5 years it’ll lose what, 5-7% looking at that. But if you buy an 8 year old car it’s going to lose 2-3% n a year. BUT 7% of £35k is £2450, whereas 3% of £4000 is only £160.  So it’ll cost you about fifteen times as much to run the more expensive car.  That’s IF you don’t get rinsed when trying to sell it.  Selling cars is not easy at all, and when there’s a lot of money on the line it’s extremely stressful.

Just no to buying a £35k car

LOL at this thread..I’m sorry but 35k?

Are you new here? STW’ers don’t bat an eyelid at 80k leccy SUVs never mind peasant transport.

That’s why I queried the “buy at the bottom of the depreciation curve” thing… The bottom is £0!

That’s why I queried the “buy at the bottom of the depreciation curve” thing… The bottom is £0!

Arguably it never reaches 0 unless disposed of. Eventually if it’s still functioning in reasonable nick itll – become rare and is reasonably desirable. The curve will rise again.

You’d probably get a year old EV for peanuts next year being how prices are crashing. ICE then not.

If it’s 10x more than your budget, that’d suggest 3.5k….

So, 35k car, sell at 32k= £500 left

Whereas you keep the entirety of what you’d sell a 3.5k car for.  Easily 2.5k I’d imagine, possibly all 3.5k.

Am I missing something?

Anyway, for the OP, I agree with most of the comments already given.

If your mate is selling it to you for less than he could get from WBAC and you were going to spend that much on a new car anyway then maybe it means you get something a bit nicer. You might have higher insurance and maintenance costs to take into account so you’d have to do the maths on that.

However, where are you going to get £35k to buy the car? If it’s a loan what will it cost you in interest and early repayment charges?  If it’s from savings hours much will it cost you in interest?  How much will the car drop in value, bearing in mind if you bought it today and sold it tomorrow you’d lose several £k anyway, so add age and miles onto that?

But if your “mate” is expecting you to pay him what you could pay a dealer then he’s taking the mick!

All I’m saying is that e.g. buying a £35k car and selling it for £32k would leave me in the same place as buying a £4k car and selling it for £1k

Part of the problem with this logic is that a 4k car is highly likely to sell for 4k still within the next year. Unless the gearbox falls out it’ll probably be 10 years before it gets to 1k. That’s how the depreciation curve works.

A 35k car could be worth anything between 25k and 40k. Better trying your luck with Bitcoin.

Edit: I missed page 2 of this thread 🙄

What will prospective buyers think when they find out you’ve had the car for only 9 months? What fault is he hiding/ expecting to be getting rid so quickly?

Bought from whom though?

Plenty of sources, new, used, trade, private. I sold an M2 privately recently for £33k.

It sounds like an utterly bonkers idea but we only live once, so buy it 😀

But please keep us updated as it could be fun 🤣 But rather you than me 😆

That’s why I queried the “buy at the bottom of the depreciation curve” thing… The bottom is £0!

If you look at the slope from 8 years on, it’s way less. So lower rate of drop, and from a lower start so way less in £££ terms.

Yes, you drive an 8-10 year old car. But I’m ok with that. My current car is 9 years old now and will need a cam belt next year. I’m planning to do that and keep it another few years.

All I’m saying is that e.g. buying a £35k car and selling it for £32k would leave me in the same place as buying a £4k car and selling it for £1k, with added advantage of it not being ancient and a wreck. There are no cheap cars any more.

There are still ‘cheap’ cars it’s just they’re £2k where they might have been £500 five years ago. The definition of cheap has just been recalibrated.

If you want a fancy toy and can convince yourself of the man maths then fine, slap down your entire budget on a finance deposit and spunk a proportion of your income for the next year on something you don’t really need but satisfies some urge to own a new car. If you just need a runabout for a year or so, go find a decade old Corsa/fiesta/107 within in your budget.

Whoever buys your mates SUV will almost certainly be out of pocket on the deal, maybe they can afford that, maybe the badge/trim/performance matters more to them than their money, either way I don’t reckon you’re the target market, you’re just day dreaming about a luxury you don’t actually need…

You seem set on buying it against a lot of advice against it so just buy it and come back in 9 months time to tell us how you got on.

The amount of money I have lost over the years on cars I am the last to give any advice on it.

Ok now read the thread in context of OP , not just buying expensive 2nd hand cars

Some special cars won’t depreciate much, if at all , let’s say a Caterham 620r. We also really wanted a BMW X1. New prices were are nuts, 2nd hand have really held their value

However OP how are you financing this £35k car? I hope it’s cash , on a loan that size the first year and a bit will just be paying the interest off. After 9 months you will have no equity against the loan.

Tax will be in excess of £500 per year. If it’s a Land Rover with easy access central locking, good luck getting insurance!

I bought a £38k Merc cause it’s a big safe comfortable car to rack up 1000’s of miles over the next few years taking my son to football matches. Would never have spent that kind of money for 9 months!

Well I would have 2yrs ago when loans were cheap. I’d have bought a Caterham 620r