What i would have given to not have a sense of smell during a night ride last week. Bloody dog egg, at least i knew i was covid clear

I’m spending this week driving a tanker to empty portaloos, I’d kill for no sense of smell right now! Ironically half the jobs have been from Covid testing sites.

Is it unreasonable of me to INSIST they take them?

Can you tell her that it’ll just help put people at ease? She theoretically isn’t in School Teacher mode outside of work….

My exact words to her were, “can’t you just do it to put our minds at rest?”

Her exact words, “Unless me and the kids get symptoms, no.”

What i would have given to not have a sense of smell during a night ride last week. Bloody dog egg, at least i knew i was covid clear

Why does that make you Covid clear? Loss of sense of smell is only 1 symptom. You might not even have that symptom. You might not have any symptoms at all.

My exact words to her were, “can’t you just do it to put our minds at rest?”

Her exact words, “Unless me and the kids get symptoms, no.”

She sounds really nice. Sorry, haven’t got anything more helpful to say. Ultimately it’s her choice whether to do the LFTs, and it’s your choice whether to see her.

Yeh, she’s a pr!2k. Always has been.

Perhaps put in place social distancing or a vaccine passport.

No negative lateral flow and you spend Christmas in a pop up party tent in the back garden.

What i would have given to not have a sense of smell during a night ride last week. Bloody dog egg, at least i knew i was covid clear

Why does that make you Covid clear? Loss of sense of smell is only 1 symptom. You might not even have that symptom. You might not have any symptoms at all.

I’m going out on a limb here, but I’m not sure he was being completely serious

I’m going out on a limb here, but I’m not sure he was being completely serious

Your not going too far out on that limb either

Yeh, she’s a pr!2k. Always has been.

don’t go then.

I wouldn’t, but its my parents that are hosting and I haven’t been back in 7 years (work).

grahamt1980
Full Member

Bloody dog egg, at least i knew i was covid clear

OK so the smell is awful but would you really rather not know?

Another few days and no sign will be good news.

Don’t forget age distribution. The lags spoken about most are for individuals. There has been (in past waves) a further lag as regards hospitalisation numbers due to the younger age groups getting it first. If it only really gets going in the older age groups this week, we won’t know for a few more weeks the real effect on hospitalisations. The young avoid hospitals better than the old.

Feeling a little sick with worry at the mo.

Oh,s lab now has a few confirmed cases after their Christmas meal. Turns out it involved people from 2 labs. Oh, doesn’t pic with us though.

Few people up our road have it too.

Still really worried for my old mum as I’ve yet to see if omicron is less sever for the elderly. Less sever being a relative term.

Now have to judge the risk in family coming over to see mum at Christmas against the fact she simply might not be around next year due to age/dementia.

Feeling overwhelmed at the moment. No easy choice.

@Poopscoop – having the same conundrum but with seeing my dad. Doesn’t help that work is taking me round Covid testing sites so the risk of interacting with a carrier is higher than normal. Got my booster on Friday so that won’t have any effect on things, really tough decision to make. Hopefully we both make the right one.

So anyone willing to have a guess/bet on when the number of infections passes the 100k mark? The numbers usually drop over the weekend and Monday due to reporting timescales and peak on a Wednesday but I think Tuesday’s figures will be huge.

I was a day out in it breaking the 100k mark. What effect is the shortage of home test kits having though? If people can’t test then cases won’t be found, add on the issue of some people potentially not reporting a positive result as it would ruin Christmas for them and any contacts and I worry the numbers are suppressed against reality.

More tentatively positive news.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59758784
Posted 4 hours ago

I heard that news on the radio today,my first thought was ,this will give the anti-mask/it’s just like a cold/told you this was a fuss about nothing gang,a big greenlight to party like it’s 1999.

^^ Already been jumped on my back bench Tories, so even if needed, lock down measures are less likely in England.

@reluctantjumper
That’s an added extra worry (going round the test sites) you could definite have done without.

I’m coming to the conclusion there is no right or wrong choice and I’ll be going on instinct/gut as much a anything. The least wrong choice I suppose.

It won’t be a very relaxed Christmas that’s for sure.

@cobrakai Your sister-in-law is confusing PCR tests with LFT. A repeat PCR within 90 days may still give a positive. LFTs are different.

The new end to isolation with 2 negative LFTs might help her to understand that. These will by necessity be taken within 90 days of a positive PCR result.

She has the wrong end of the stick, but doesn’t know it. I wonder what else she is misunderstanding?

My sister in law says they don’t need to and won’t take an LFT unless they get new symptoms because they had COVID in November and its less than 90 days ago. She’s a teacher and thats the guidelines she’s been told to follow.

To be fair that is what the guidance has said for a long time, stop LFTs until 90 days after infection, see pg 3 of the following faqs. This came up in our family last week when we met up with extended family. BiL had confirmed covid in Nov, so he didn’t do a LFT before we all met up because of the High risk of false positives. He’s a GP and generally very cautious and concerned about Covid. We have vulnerable family members so interested if there’s any update on this as the current NHS .gov.uk pages are unclear what to do.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/wp-content/uploads/sites/52/2020/11/C0913-lateral-flow-antien-test-trust-faqs-v3-jan-2021.pdf

To be fair that is what the guidance has said for a long time, stop LFTs until 90 days after infection, see pg 3 of the following faqs

Yes this was certainly was what p20 and his NHS colleagues were told when given their testing kits at the start of the year.

it’s what I was told after having the covid in August

Is that guidance still valid?

Things do change rapidly and the website isn’t always up to date

What do we think of the headlines in the papers today? Full of “risk two thirds lower”, “50% less severe” etc.
If it wasn’t for xmas day around the corner I think we’d have a mass rush to the pub / shopping centre etc to make up for lost time but I think no-one wants to be positive over xmas so that will be limited.
Boxing onwards however… all bets are off.

BBC front page roundup

It’ll be used by Boris to avoid any further meaningful measures after Christmas and vindication of his either and delay tactic. We will be relying on people applying common sense again and we all know how well that works.

Yep, I’m sure the flat-earther/anti-vax brigade will jump on this as everything being back to normal, whats all the fuss about, etc, etc and let’s all organise a great big party for new year

Idiots!

It’s interesting that I’d never really seen specific examples of the anti-vax stuff that has been doing the rounds on social media. I presume that’s because my particular algorithms point me mainly in the direction of sane people

But our local MP put a post up on one of the community groups the other day saying vaccines and boosters were available and you could book in

He was then deluged with what I can only refer to as completely unhinged conspiracy-theory nonsense that would make David Icke blush.

People then tried to point these anti-science clowns in the direction of science, but they’re just not interested. They genuinely believe Bill Gates is trying to microchip us all or the government are sedating us and various other utterly insane ramblings

They’re absolute loons and they walk amongst us folks

I tested positive for Covid on Tuesday so that’s Christmas off for me. I feel pretty grim but I’m bloody glad I’m double jabbed and boosted

What do we think of the headlines in the papers today? Full of “risk two thirds lower”, “50% less severe” etc.

Completely misses the point that 50% less severe on an individual basis is overshadowed by four times the number of infections at a societal level, which means its still a numbers game and the NHS may still be overwhelmed.

Which is going to be very hard to communicate why a lockdown may still be needed in January.

Is that guidance still valid?

Apparently not. But it hasn’t been communicated well, has it.

What do we think of the headlines in the papers today?

The headlines ignore/remove all the qualifications, and us such are dangerous. The stories are mostly good reporting… but the damage is done before people read them (and many won’t, obviously).

To be fair, if you read the articles, most of them say the lesser severity is balanced by the huge numbers and we’ll be no better off. However, the headline messaging definitely doesn’t help a cautious approach

Edit. So @kelvin is faster at typing than me!

Completely misses the point that 50% less severe on an individual basis is overshadowed by four times the number of infections at a societal level, which means its still a numbers game and the NHS may still be overwhelmed.

This

But it’s also self before society. At the risk of starting an argument (on HERE! This thread! Surely not!) the people that can’t work that out are either desperately stupid, or don’t care and see their lower risk as more important than the wider impact.

God forbid they have an accident or something and need to attend A&E ‘cos penny to a pound they’ll also be the ones abusing the staff because of the wait times.

A few stats from Gov.uk, and I’ve got to say, I’m starting to get very sceptical about all the reports issued by the government and associated official bodies.

21/12/20 vs 21/12/21

Virus tests – 453.903 vs 1,490,061

Positive results – 45,648 vs 24,461 (though it did peak at around 100k for a couple of days a week earlier)

Hospitalisations – 2,371 vs 813 (18/12/21)

Deaths – 575 vs 13 (last few days typically 70-100)

To summarise – 3x the tests results in just over half the cases. 1/3 of people in hospital and 1/5 the amount of deaths

If there is a huge spike in cases due to omicron, wouldn’t it be a lot more , when you consider how much more testing is being done.

I’m peering into the rabbit hole, and seeing a very different picture to that which is being painted by Boris and co.

(I have no affiliation with any anti vax, 5g, flat earth groups etc.😁)

Edit – add link – https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

The studies published are reasonable attempts based on individual level data. But identifying reinfections is a challenge. And of course there is a significant disagreement in the magnitude of effect. It would be better to understand why the two analyses so not generate similar results, given that the populations of Scotland and England are really not so different.

As for increased testing, one thing is certain, omicron is replacing delta. The frequency rise is unequivocal regardless of increased testing practice. Also there is an increase in hospitalisation rates in both London and the North West which has tracked the cases data. Other regions have not yet. Whether this is related to vaccination practices in those regions is debatable.

The population immunity we have now clouds all pictures compared with alpha last December. The wave of delta will have pushed the age distribution of infections around, and that may have changed the hospitalisation rate. That’s before vaccination and waning protection. Controlling for age, vaccination history, waning, loss of potency and past infection history is very challenging.

[tl:dr] there is evidence of lower morbidity, but it’s equivocal. I would not be jumping on it to say “told you so” just yet.

21/12/20 vs 21/12/21

Virus tests – 453.903 vs 1,490,061

Positive results – 45,648 vs 24,461 (though it did peak at around 100k for a couple of days a week earlier)

You’re quoting the ‘Cases by specimen date’ for 21/12/21, which is currently incomplete. The number will rise as more of the tests performed on that date are processed. ‘Cases by reporting date’ is 33,364 vs 90,629.

A few stats from <span class=”skimlinks-unlinked”>Gov.uk</span>, and I’ve got to say, I’m starting to get very sceptical about all the reports issued by the government and associated official bodies.

about the numbers, or the interpretations?

I’d be wary of comparing daily figures, there’s always fluctations in data and not just because of weekend reporting, etc. You need to compare trends and rolling averages.

I’d also be wary of testing and even positive numbers. If we did no testing, there’d be no positive results, pandemic over?? We are testing far more and hence finding far more even if the % of positive tests is going down – because we are encouraging routine testing rather than in response to symptoms and exposure.

Serious cases (ie hospitalisations) and deaths is the relevant metric* and vaccination and endemic immunity is clearly helping. Complicate by the discussion above, with transmissability and severity sat on other ends of the seesaw, and it’s hard to extract a full picture.

* and I haven’t seen it said for a while but long covid is still a thing, even if it doesn’t kill you. Is there any knowledge yet about whether Omicron is more or less likely to lead to long term effects.

I tested positive for Covid on Tuesday so that’s Christmas off for me. I feel pretty grim but I’m bloody glad I’m double jabbed and boosted

Bad luck Binners
There is no ‘one size fits all ‘when it comes to this Covid malarky,so take it easy.

The number of pro Johnson twitter pundits that are saying his dithering is justified

Because omicron will result in 40% less hospitalisations than the deltawave

Completely ignoring that Delta wave caused 100,000? hospitalisations spread over a few months & omicron spreading much faster world mean 50,000+

It’s interesting that I’d never really seen specific examples of the anti-vax stuff that has been doing the rounds on social media.

me neither but then a friend-of-a-friend posted something a bit “unusual” so I had a look at their page… loads of anti-vax stuff, lots of stuff about becoming “magnetic”. Apparently this is a thing: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/freedom-of-information-responses-from-the-mhra-week-commencing-21-june-2021/freedom-of-information-request-on-reports-of-magnetism-at-covid-19-vaccine-injection-sites-foi-21-545
(Although this person hadn’t even had the vaccine – they’d just been standing “too close” to those that had). There was even a pic with a spoon carefully balanced on themselves to “prove” the magnetism!! I honestly couldn’t tell whether it was a piss-take or not, but lots of their friends chimed in with sympathetic messages & herbal remedies to demagnetise… if it was a bit, they were all very committed to it! Probably shouldn’t laugh though, I guess the most likely explanation is they are unwell and honestly believe it. Scary though!

As for increased testing, one thing is certain, omicron is replacing delta.

I think a slightly worrying aspect of current reporting and debate is a sense of relaxation based on the increasing prevalence of omicron and its apparently lower severity. Politically and personally people are measuring risk and their exposure to that risk based on a relatively better prognosis with Omicron (which is of course still a lot worse than no Covid at all).

Omicron is replacing Delta but it hasn’t replaced it yet. They’re both still out there and Mrs Doubtpfizer doesn’t really get to chose which they catch.

You’re quoting the ‘Cases by specimen date’ for 21/12/21, which is currently incomplete. The number will rise as more of the tests performed on that date are processed. ‘Cases by reporting date’ is 33,364 vs 90,629.

Thanks for spotting that, I did wonder at the original quote, but that puts everything into better perspective.