Or, like many Asian countries, wear face coverings out of courtesy in public places during flu season.

This +++++++++++++++

Or, like many Asian countries, wear face coverings out of courtesy in public places during flu season.

This plus one – it’s not **** rocket science, nor an infringement of my hooman rites

Well, this doesn’t sound good.

New heavily mutated variant appears in South Africa. Fingers well and truly crossed this is just a scare.

New latest form is the most heavily mutated version discovered so far – and it has such a long list of mutations that it was described by one scientist as “horrific”.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/1463176829016186893?s=20

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59418127

Or, like many Asian countries, wear face coverings out of courtesy in public places during flu season.

No, stop trying to create a sterile environment

Nobody is trying to create a sterile environment and would fail if they tried. Limiting the spread of dangerous pathogens however, that’s a pretty good idea.

Nobody is trying to create a sterile environment and would fail if they tried. Limiting the spread of dangerous pathogens however, that’s a pretty good idea.

Last year, nobody got colds or flu on the scale that they normally do

This year, the colds and flu are off the scale. You could argue that forever mask wearing and sanitising, we’ll never have big cold and flu outbreaks again.

I’m not in that camp, I’d rather catch bugs and build up some resistance.

I’m not a medical professional though, so could be talking bollocks as usual

No, stop trying to create a sterile environment

You are mistaken in attribution of mask wearing to a sterile environment,

Got my Pfizer booster on my AstroZen first two today. Didn’t even feel it thanks to a competent nurse and no effects on the last 13hrs. I’m well happy.

, I’d rather catch bugs and build up some resistance.

I’m not a medical professional though, so could be talking bollocks as usual

If you’ve never had a virus before then you haven’t built up any specific antibody resistance, you’re just relying on your general imune system. Not catching it, or more importantly not giving it to vulnerable people is better than catching it and spreading it.

People seem to have forgotten that the mask wearing is to protect others, the alternative is an I’m-alrigh-Jack attitude which will lead to more deaths.

Stunning to see the anti mask debate is still raging.

I received my first ever negative comment about wearing a mask in a shop today oddly. Guy says to his make words to the effect of “why the **** is he still wearing masks?” I just sighed to myself and went about finishing the shopping.

Best hope that new variant isn’t too. We just can’t seem to keep ourselves.

That escalated fast, several south African states hit with travel restrictions due to new variant.

Realistically it’s probably already here? It’ll slow its progress whilst it’s studied though I suppose.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59418127

Oh joy..

I swear, nobody reads my posts.😉😁

I wish scientists wouldn’t use words like “horrific” in the context of Covid. Not reassuring to hear. Ah well, buckle up chaps.

To be fair, they seem to have been much quicker with the travel ban this time.

I can think of several cynical anti government comments to add, but I’m not feeling it tonight.

^^ I agree mate, I’m relieved to see the restrictions come on so fast.

Someone, somewhere is learning from past mistakes.👍

Reacting fast, when it’s those pesky Africans we can throw under the bus.
I bet we wouldn’t have been so hasty to slap a red list on certain other countries.

Either way, is it a fairly simple and quick process to add this variant to the vaccine once it’s been identified?

On mask wearing – its still very much the norm in scotland – does anyone know if this has shown any variation in infection rates?  It would seem to be a good case study – two areas with otherwise similar issues but one with high mask wearing and one with low.  should be some recognisable difference?

Ta – I’m just being too lazy to dig thru the data and hoping someone on here has

It’s also a reminder of what the WHO have been saying all the way along.

None of us are out of this until we all are, through global vaccination.

Either way, is it a fairly simple and quick process to add this variant to the vaccine once it’s been identified?

Regardless of whether it is or not, it won’t be a quick process to roll out to the masses. If we have to start from scratch we’ll be shafted

Slightly more optimistically however, there is no evidence this is actually particularly infectious. And even if it is I suppose it may end up being less deadly. Fingers crossed eh!

^^ Fingers crossed.

I tend to like it when this thread has fallen way off the front page of the site.😁

On mask wearing – its still very much the norm in scotland – does anyone know if this has shown any variation in infection rates?  It would seem to be a good case study – two areas with otherwise similar issues but one with high mask wearing and one with low.  should be some recognisable difference?

Throughout summer, infection rates in Scotland were well above those in England despite the difference in mask-wearing policy. On first reading, one could suggest that mask wearing has actually made things worse. However, that “masks” all sorts of other reasons for the differential.

My theory is that rates in Scotland were higher in the summer because they had been lower throughout last year so there were simply more “targets” for the virus. This same behaviour can be seen on a more local scale by comparing the infection rates in Highland Region with those in Edinburgh, Glasgow etc. where, again, Highland rates have been in excess of the cities.

If you split England up into blocks as big as Scotland (by land or population) you’ll find that some areas had levels just as high as Scotland all summer and autumn. M62 corridor for example.

I’m reading poopscoop. Trying not to comment much on this thread at the moment. Christina Pagel explained the B.1.1.529 situation very well earlier today, and was calling for precautionary red listing of the countries hit. I was going to post her Twitter thread here, but anything other than going along with the “stopping people from catching it is making things worse, thousands of hospitalisation and deaths was the smart move… let’s keep ‘em coming” gaslighting line seem unwelcome in this thread at the moment. Fingers crossed for Christmas… really want to see all the family this year.

I’m reading poopscoop

Not aimed at your @kelvin, was a gentle nudge at tp for being “guilty” of what I do all the time. Skim reading.lol

Yeah, the thread is going through “one of its patches” but unfortunately I’ll be reading it again for sometime.

Totally get where you are coming from regarding Christmas and the associated positivity many of is need this winter.

Heck, I’m normally a bit meh with Christmas but I’m a little more forgiving of it this year.

Everything well and truly crossed here too.

Aus news is reporting a new delta variant in South Africa? And we’re looking at opening borders when we hit 90% vax…. But surely the (current) vax will be ineffective against a new more “deadly” variant?? So we’re back to square one?

Anyone had a “booster” yet?

Do try to keep up Aphex 🙂

Yeah, I’ve had booster as has my mother. Pretty good uptake in the UK I believe.

Consensus seems to be that it will be a few weeks to collect data from vaccinated people being exposed to the new variant to see if there is risk of evasion/higher deaths.

An anxious few weeks for the world really.

If it totally evades the vaccines (huge if) then we are back to square one which is terrifying. Yes, the vaccines can be modified but they then need manufacturing and another huge rollout. Globally. Not sure our poor old NHS can cope with that this winter/spring in the UK. It’s spent.

All this is just my opinion of course.

I don’t know how to the quote thing but up there someone says its a bad year for flu’s and cold. I know lots of people have had bad colds but do we actually know about flu yet or are we just presuming it will be bad?

My theory is that rates in Scotland were higher in the summer because they had been lower throughout last year so there were simply more “targets” for the virus. This same behaviour can be seen on a more local scale by comparing the infection rates in Highland Region with those in Edinburgh, Glasgow etc. where, again, Highland rates have been in excess of the cities.

I agree Colin, Moray is much the same. Having had far lower rates than most of the mainland we’re now second in the league 😉 It is dropping again now though thankfully.

All boostered and flu jabbed in this house, other than waiting for my teenage son to get his one jab.

Crossing fingers and toes with this new variant in general but also as we really want to see family this Christmas and a house move is on the cards around then too 😣

New super deadly variant right on cue for Christmas

Cynic, me?

But surely the (current) vax will be ineffective against a new more “deadly” variant??

Has anyone seen a reliable report that it is more deadly yet?

While it’s a concern, really not helpful throwing emotive term like that about without any evidence.

Prompt action needed and seems to be being taken. Whether that’s the government learning from past mistakes in terms of last winters poor response to new variants and the resulting peak in deaths, or they just don’t want to gave to cancel the Christmas sp many are desperate for, I’m not sure

Cynic, me?

Conspiracy theorist, maybe.

But surely the (current) vax will be ineffective against a new more “deadly” variant??

Making stuff up doesn’t help.

Has anyone seen a reliable report that it is more deadly yet?

No. It’s literally just popped up*, there are relatively few detected cases in SA. We won’t know for a few weeks whether it results in a higher level of hospitalisations and deaths.

We can strongly suspect that it is more contagious than Delta, because a higher % of SA cases now involve it, which is likely to mean it is outcompeting Delta through transmission.

It’s the sheer number of mutations which is sounding alarm bells. Some of these have been previously associated with vaccine evasion, so vaccines ‘may’ be less effective.

⚠️BREAKING—HOTEL CROSS TRANSMISSION OF #B11529—Traveler from South Africa🇿🇦 flew to Hong Kong🇭🇰 with new variant—but wasn’t discovered until 4th day of quarantine on 2nd PCR. Another guest across hallway cross-infected—only positive on 8th day on 4th PCR! Both Pfizer vaccinated🧵 pic.twitter.com/USS2EBzJKA

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) November 25, 2021

It’s already arrived in other countries but only been detected because they have rigorous quarantine and testing protocols. Well done to whichever government official twisted arms to get the immediate travel ban, but good chance it’s already here, perhaps flown in with a SA rugby fan for the autumn internationals, or any one of the 700 a day who land here. If it is here, it’s at the worst possible moment, just in time for the Christmas party season.

The Hong Kong case above was curious – long delay before positive pcr, during which time another quarantining guest was infected, then very high viral load.

Government needs to go into overdrive with the booster campaign now, get it into the 20s and 30s so they have the best possible protection. And be ready with other mitigation, if needed.

*well, it’s been spotted for a while, but has now got into gear in sub-Saharan Africa.

After worrying about first ever flu jab side effects, following not getting on with OxAZ in April and June at all with ~3 weeks of malaise for each, I’m relieved to report that I feel fine ~22 hours later (just like my mum last winter, albeit I was concerned my recent ~4 weeks of flu in October might trigger a hyper-active immune response).

… Just got to wait for my Covid booster invite, hopefully from my GP like the previous two, in ~2 weeks. Might pop into surgery to see if they’re doing boosters, or whether I should play the NHS online location lottery.

The South African heavily mutated strain doesn’t sound good, I’m glad our government have reached a deal with it to not infect anyone travelling from there until Sunday, surprised it’s taken this long for a variant to come along that sounds like it will out-compete Delta and Delta Plus in terms of transmitability.

Last year, nobody got colds or flu on the scale that they normally do

This year, the colds and flu are off the scale

Correlation is not causation.

I’m relieved to report that I feel fine

Good news!

Correlation is not causation.

No, but this winter we haven’t had all the Australians guinea pigging new flu strains for us, so we’re probably less prepared flu vaccine wise. Fingers crossed though, our health system isn’t in a good place if we do get a really bad flu year here in the UK.

Surely vaccination + Delta infection must be a decent starting block for protection against the SA++ strain?

This year, the colds and flu are off the scale

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1035959/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w47.pdf

Doesn’t look like it to me.

Not if its mutated enough so that the vaccine is ineffective?

I must admit I find the mutation rate scary.  I do not know enough to know if these types of viruses normally mutate like this