Sorry to hear about your little one neilnevil.

Warnings on RSV earlier this year… expected to start sooner and effect more kids…

https://www.hsj.co.uk/public-health/exclusive-government-alert-over-surge-in-respiratory-virus-affecting-babies-and-toddlers/7030061.article

Torygraph reporting that government is likely to end most free lateral flow and pcr tests apart from on high risk areas such as care homes etc.

Ffs

BBC News – Covid: The UK is Europe’s virus hotspot – does it matter?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58849024

a self-appointed group of experts

That loaded description jumped out to me.

It’s not even close!

I’ve just about lost my patience with this government making such a piss poor job of everything

Torygraph reporting that government is likely to end most free lateral flow and pcr tests apart from on high risk areas such as care homes etc.

If you don’t test for it then it becomes much easier to ignore. It gets rid of the need to isolate so people can just carry on going to work if they’re not actually unwell and kids can stay in school. It screws those who can’t or won’t get vaccinated but it was always just going to be a matter of time before things basically returned to normal.

It’s not even close!

BBC trying to justify it so that it doesn’t look like the result of stunningly incompetent governance.

If you don’t test for it then it becomes much easier to ignore.

Better get the open-top bus warmed up for the Boris ‘we beat covid’ victory tour. No doomsters and gloomsters allowed on board.

Will they stop people being tested for it as they get admitted to hospital, too?

Will they stop people being tested for it as they get admitted to hospital, too?

Probably not but if the hospital numbers stay close to the current level most people just won’t care.

16 year old went to get her 2nd vaccination today and was told they aren’t doing them due to the risk of myocarditis, was this the guidance 8 weeks ago? I thought they were doing double vaccinations for anyone over 16 and the single dose was 12-15 years olds? Good chance I’m not remembering right but it seems fairly retarded they’d tell and allow her to book her second dose……

That does sound odd. Could they not have contacted her to say it was cancelled?

Back to that BBC article… The Guardian featured the same two people who were part of the “self appointed group or experts” as described by the BBC (why not just say independent) but gave some context as to their roles and expertise…

Christina Pagel is director of UCL’s Clinical Operational Research Unit, which applies advanced analytical methods to problems in healthcare. Martin McKee is professor of European public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/07/england-vaccine-just-plus-europe-covid

Kelvin, you must be so relieved that your son is making a recovery :0)

Interesting to hear Dr. Chris Smith (the naked scientist), saying that many people are testing positive using the LF tests, then negative on a PCR. His answer is that there is a bad cold going around (as mentioned above), which is a type of CV and is being picked up by the LF test, but isn’t actually Delta virus. He stressed to trust the PCR test for a better result.
Let’s hope these people with the bad colds and flu still keep away for others, as having any kind of virus, cold or flu lowers the immune system, leaving it open for catching something else at the same time, possible ending up in hospital.

Was sad to see the queue outside out little independent local cinema, with no mask wearing and no distancing. I’m guessing there isn’t much ventilation in the building once inside.

Did anyone else see this report of anti vaxxers intimidation of a teenage girl in Wales? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-58856068

That’s a depressing story. Also wary that the BBC close the article with the JCVI conclusions without any comment about how opaque they still are. When they explain the data they used, and the assumptions made, then we can interpret their findings. Also, the teen involved has long term health effects but avoided admission to hospital, exactly the kind of health outcome ignored by those JCVI conclusions shown.

For a bit of context…

https://www.independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Indie-SAGE-letter-to-JCVI-.pdf

Interesting to hear Dr. Chris Smith (the naked scientist), saying that many people are testing positive using the LF tests, then negative on a PCR.

The explanation on TV in these parts of that is that if you follow up a better than 99% reliable positive LF positive tests with a PCR test that gives 10-20% of false neagtives you’ll get exactly that proportion of positive LF followed by negative PCRs. The wisdom is that if you test positive on LF you’ve got Covid and there’s not much point doing a PCR.

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/how-likely-positive-lateral-flow-test-covid-19-be-wrong

LF tests aren’t very sensitive and give lots of false negatives but if they do give a positive result you can be pretty certain you’ve got Covid.

Edukator – Dr. Chris Smith was talking about this ‘new cold virus’ that is going around which has symptoms similar to C19, as the cold itself is being picked up by the sensitive LF test, due to the cold itself being a coronavirus. He stressed that the pcr test is more likely to give the correct result.
I personally would stay away from others atm with a cold or anything similar. Neighbours of ours have already has flu and they’re in their 40’s.

If he’s right there’s no point doing LF tests anymore. If they aren’t specific enough and need backing up with a PCR which also has limited sensitivity and reliability then the whole test programme is compromised.

I’d like to know more about “this new cold virus” if anyone out there knows anything about its genetics.

Staying away from colds isn’t really a realistic option for teacher Madame. Colds and flu usually get to us with a lag time down here, people around me seem remarkably healthy. It’ll be interesting to see what happens when mask wearing is dropped.

Doesn’t sound right to me. LFT are quite targeted, aren’t they? The tests for antibodies could be confused by the response to other (common cold) viruses, because they are looking for the response, not the virus. LFT on the other hand are triggered by parts of the actual virus itself.

LFT have shown high specificity, PCR has a sensitivity somewhat below 100%, so unless there is clear evidence for this “new virus” the safer assumption is surely that these are covid cases.

Surprised this hasn’t been picked up already

BBC News – Covid: UK’s early response worst public health failure ever, MPs say
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58876089

Only had a quick skim. Report seems fairly balanced, suspect the reporting/headlines will be twisted to highlight the message the press wants to give out to their readership.

Shame this wasn’t done a year ago ahead of the winter wave so lessons could have been learnt in time to save more lives, and it’s the learning lessons that had to be the priority rather than a blame game.

Yes but… Just maybe if we look at who’s to blame they can be held to account and we can’t get someone better in. Personally I think certain senior politicians ought to be on trial for effectively causing thousands…. Tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths.

Personally I think certain senior politicians ought to be on trial for effectively causing thousands…. Tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths.

My priority is making sure we don’t have tens of thousands more.

Then we can sharpen the pitchforks

But is the risk risk of 10s of thousands of more deaths not more likely if we keep the same incompetent, cowardly decision makers in post?

The two obvious ball-dropping points were implementing the first lockdown too late, and not introducing the autumn circuit breaker lockdown. Both clearly supported by evidence and both fumbled by decision makers whose primary aim was to remain popular.

You can then add on a clearly unfit for purpose and hugely expensive test & trace system plus lack of a PPE stockpile and inability to procure necessary items at scale.

The airline industry is held up as being a great example of open and honest error reporting and learning from mistakes. But if one airline had lost multiple planes in a single year the argument goes from learning to removing the decision makers ASAP.

Personally I find it hard to see how Boris and chums could have handled this much worse. Trump and an invisible opposition have been an unbelievable blessing for them

Surprised this hasn’t been picked up already

Reading it now. Have relatively little to disagree with so far. Scientific groupthink is a thing one can identify with. I deliberately avoided looking at what others were doing for that reason. The comment on data availability is absolutely spot on. I likened COVID to landing a plane in fog without instruments. That view has not changed. Fast forward and things are in a totally different place.

You can then add on a clearly unfit for purpose and hugely expensive test & trace system

Guess where I have pleasure of working.

The airline industry is held up as being a great example of open and honest error reporting and learning from mistakes.

We had someone who worked for us for few months. Fuloughed from their job as an aviation maintenance supervisor (they’d been an engineer themself so knew what the job standards should be.)
They left as they couldn’t understand why lapses in proper procedure were allowed to happen and when they reported them they were viewed as a grass.

I wouldn’t get on a bike built to T&T standards, let alone an aeroplane. When quality and safety matter, look no further than the most regulated industries.

1 in 4 people I test are COVID positive. (The ratio is going in the wrong direction). My PPE is an NHS supplied paper mask. The rest is all about proper practice. The rules are impossible to follow in our workplace.

The two obvious ball-dropping points were implementing the first lockdown too late, and not introducing the autumn circuit breaker lockdown. Both clearly supported by evidence and both fumbled by decision makers whose primary aim was to remain popular.

The first one I think is still unclear quite where the scientific evidence pointed and when? Or at least the weight of enough scientific evidence. Despite most people and businesses already taking their own precautions.

The second, yes, that was a clear and incorrect political judgement that added to the impact of the Kent variant last winter before they failed just as dismally to prepare for the Delta variant. Starmer publicly backed the scientists iirc, and then failed to follow up with a lot of “we told you so”

The first one I think is still unclear quite where the scientific evidence pointed and when? Or at least the weight of enough scientific evidence. Despite most people and businesses already taking their own precautions.

Perhaps I was a bit more focussed on it as I work in healthcare and was booted out of Italy in March when they locked down but I distinctly remember shouting at the tv when Boris was saying no lockdown was needed around 14th/15th.

Even in March we had evidence of the mortality rates from other European countries, the folly of local lockdowns (when northern Italy was locked down everyone fled south, making the situation far worse as many carried the virus with them), asymptomatic transmission being a key factor.

Some evidence was unknown; for example the ease of airborne transmission wasn’t fully understood, hence the delay in recommending masks.

And I realise I neglected to mention the fact Boris & co abandoned thousands of people in care homes to die thanks to lack of PPE. Despite Hancock’s erroneous and downright disingenuous claim of putting a “ring of steel” around them.

I guess we now know why Boris chose this week to go  on Holiday

This very thread, and the one that went before are proof enough of where the scientific evidence was pointing all along.

The delay is advising mask wearing was purely down to mask shortages in France, the evidence of their usefulness was there. It’s one of the things that’s provoked a judicial interest here. There was the crazy situation of medical professional begging for FFP2/3 masks and the government telling us they weren’t important. We knew. The answer was making our own until supplies became avvailable.

The chair of the group is Jeremy Hunt. Does that seem remotely appropriate to anyone at all in the world?

Well, it’s appropriate because all the people crying “it’s just lefties out to get our Boris” can be pointed to the names on the report. It’s a pretty fair, balanced, and unsurprising report really. Nothing new in it. And nothing to do with hindsight… as reading pages of the thread contemporary with the events it covers show. Hell, just read the Sage reports published… in most cases they were saying what independent scientists outside were saying, it’s only the past delays in publishing that helped give any credence to claims of ignorance by the government… and make their “only in hindsight” claims in media interviews today look like the gaslighting that they are.

The Tory MP on 5 Live this afternoon was full-on blaming the scientists. The only criticism of the govt was that they “trusted the scientists too much”!!!!

On the same day as we’re checking out this report…

Honoured to be appointed United Nations Special Representative.

I’ll be working with the @UN @ECA_OFFICIAL to help African economic recovery from the pandemic and promote sustainable development.

— Matt Hancock (@MattHancock) October 12, 2021

…what can you say to that?

Arse

Interesting article on Guardian website about testing anomalies, similar to ours and others I know.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/12/calls-for-inquiry-as-negative-covid-pcr-tests-after-positive-lateral-flow-reported

The Tory MP on 5 Live this afternoon was full-on blaming the scientists. The only criticism of the govt was that they “trusted the scientists too much”!!!!

Did anyone see this going any other way? These slippery **** will throw whoever they can find under the bus.