Economic forecasters are never right about anything, ever.

Yes a stellar record predicting 11 of the last 3 recessions! 😉

Here’s a cunning plan. Leak a proposed “£500 quid per positive test” plan in mid-January, say it will probably be introduced at the end of February. Covidiots who fancy a free £500 play it ultra-safe until the launch date so they don’t miss out. Ministers shelve the idea shortly before it was due to be introduced.

4D chess!

There may be a few unintended consequences, obviously, but I’m sure they’ve thought of them.

The virus does pose a tiny risk to large amounts of the population, that is fact. Yes, the risk is that you pass it on to someone of higher risk, but from a purely personal point of view, the risk for many is low.

Low until you absolutely must have healthcare and there’s no bed for you, no fit medic and you die from the effects of COVID not from COVID.

It’s not hard to understand, even the Government Ministers understand it and these are people that would have problems finding both arse cheeks with their own hands in a well lighted room!

That REACT study is shocking, an absolutely terrible bit of analysis. Their observational strategy and analysis could not possibly have detected the effect of the current lockdown, to present their results as if they tells us that lockdown isn’t working is just…awful. As bad as any of the nonsense coming from the lockdown sceptics.

Lockdown is actually working very well and the effect on deaths will soon be very clear. Keep with it!

Low until you absolutely must have healthcare and there’s no bed for you, no fit medic and you die from the effects of COVID not from COVID.

Not a dig at @Sandwich, but:

If, at 9-10 months into a pandemic, with 90,000+ UK dead and wall to wall coverage of a straining health system AND health care professionals crying out the healthcare system is on its knees, then you, trying to explain this issue to somebody, is twice wasted: You are not going to inform them and, lor’ bless ’em, they are never, ever be going to be informed.

Thanks @thecaptain. This place is a welcome source of reassurance at times when what’s left of our national media is sadly lacking.

@ marinhutch, See it worries me that ‘muh freedoms’ are so casually swept aside. Freedoms are hardwon but easily lost. Freedom is fundamental. We fought wars over freedoms. Millions died for them. How many are dying now? Not that many that wouldn’t have died otherwise as far as I can see. Each death is a tradegy for someone, of course, but objectively, an eighty year old passing on in a nursing home is not a tradegy, that’s just life. People die all the time. Last year 4 million died of aids. 18 million died of cancer. 4 million died of air pollution (governments not so worried about those deaths, however). We try to mitigate the risks. No one wants to lose loved ones, but life can’t be sacrificed because of death. That’s not the way we should live.

Now imagine what our hospitals would look like right if we weren’t so ‘hysterical’ and let people just get on with it.

Yes, but for how long? Is another 4-5 years of this acceptable under current measures? Also, when the Health Secretary says it is a “deadly threat to us all”, that to my mind is hysterical. Police using drones and then nameing/shaming people who went for a walk is hysterical. Police dying lakes red is hysterical. Fining two young women for meeting and then saying that a hot drink consitutes a picnic is hysterical. The media coverage is hysterical.

I totally agree with all your points about the healthcare system martinhutch otherwise – but I’d like to see the evidence that, as I said on page 606, is it a chronic shortage of staff and mismanagement, that is the problem rather than covid-19 alone (biggest ICU ward built in London but empty since no staff to take care of it – how much of that is the Tory-tabloid driven ‘hostile environment’ and Brexit?) That’s not to say C-19 is not a disaster for the NHS, but if that’s the main reason I’m not allowed to live my life, I want to see evidence of that. I want to understand it because the accepting these measures when there seems to be no acceptable reason for doing so is detrimental to one’s mental health.

So I currently have zero **** to give about people whinging, looking for loopholes or trying to manoeuvre the statistics to make this look like anything other than the utter shitshow it is

I think you undermine what was otherwise a pretty reasonable response. I am not manoevuring the statistics, I’m trying to understand them. I questioned in my last post why 2020 only saw 2,000 more deaths than in 2018 – I think that’s important to understand. Hospital admissions seem stable. The NHS is a shitshow every January/-March. What I’m interested in is what is the future of it given the fact that vaccines are likely not going to have the impact the general population is hoping for? C-19 is clearly not going away anytime soon.

if you are of the opinion that what we have is an elective dictatorship, then yes, you’re indulging in fantasy conspiracy horse shit.

nickc, of course it is – this government routinely flouts and breaks the law with total impunity. Please see the Goodlaw Project who are about the only people trying to challenge the government. “Chumocracy” is misleading. It’s outright corruption. It’s completely illegal. Breaking it’s own laws is a hallmark of a dictatorship. Acting with impunity is.

The vaccine rollout is clearly positive, but what’s the solution if it doesn’t work as we hope? Lockdown forever? Increased NHS capacity? Indefinite shielding for the elderly.

My thoughts exactly. When is this going to stop? It is said a government loves a good crisis. The thin democracy we have in the UK is under threat – protesting now made illegal because of covid. I don’t like the direction this is going at all. People talk about the reasons. Well passing laws willy-nilly, no parlimentary oversight, revoking fundamental rights and freedoms, using C-19, a generally mild disease for the vast majority, to kick in people’s doors? How about restructuring the economy? The uber-rich are absolultey creaming it in. Tory donors are having a field day. And don’t get me wrong, I’m saying this was planned. I’m not saying this is a conspiracy. What I’m saying is that if you start to question it you immediatley get shutdown, insulted, etc. I’m glad other people are starting to question it to. Such momumental changes to the way we live need questioning.

Fat mountain. How many old peoples deaths are acceptable to you?

I’ve no idea that can actually be answered but normally we don’t close down society and destroy peoples’ livlihoods and mental health because people get old, sick and die. Young people are paying immensely for this crisis. Even in my demographic (medium/high income, middle-class, white, male, mid-30s) my mates are all depressed and saying their children are suffering too. The students I work with are all sat at home in what should have been the best years of their life. 1/4 are report feeling ‘dispair’ and ‘hopelessness’. Students are being fined life-changing sums of money for seeing their mates. Some of my (international) students are sat in empty halls of residences, totally isolated and alone. There is virtually no mental health support whatsoever. Like I said, C-19 seems here to stay and we’re going to have to learn to live with it. The question is how.

Millions don’t die in the UK every year. It’s about 600,000. Excess deaths by the time we are a year into this will probably be pushing an extra 100,000 on top of that.

And that is with these restrictions.

Roughly 1 in 750 people in the UK have died as a result of Covid in the last 9 months. We are well on the way to that being 1 in 500.

And that is with these restrictions.

If I don’t get my freedoms back when this is over, I’ll take to the streets quite happily. But in the meantime, they can have these freedoms and quite a few more, if it gives the NHS a chance to get back on top of the situation and stop people dying.

Well, clearly that’s worldwide! And good luck taking to the streets now it’s illegal.

questioned in my last post why 2020 only saw 2,000 more deaths than in 2018

Ah… one of you “interesting questions” that isn’t trying to “trying to manoeuvre the statistics to make this look like anything other than the utter shitshow it is”?

Show us your figures, and sources, please.

I questioned in my last post why 2020 only saw 2,000 more deaths than in 2018

Google “uk deaths 2020”

First result: Link

Are you tying or lashing out (Edit: p’raps “venting” might be a more appropriate word)? Lashing (venting) out, right now, is (mostly) fine by me, given the times.

I posted them on page 606

I’m looking at the death rates for the UK annually (source ONS).

In 2018, there were 541,589 deaths registered in England and Wales, an increase of 1.6% compared with 2017 (533,253); this is the highest annual number of deaths since 1999.

In 2019, there were 530,841 deaths registered in England and Wales, a decrease of 2.0% compared with 2018 (541,589 deaths). Taking into account the population size and age structure, age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) in England and Wales decreased significantly, by 3.7% for males and 4.7% for females.

In England, the number of deaths up to 11 December 2020 was 543,335, which is 65,251 (13.6%) more than the five-year average. Of these, 68,341 deaths (12.6%) mentioned COVID-19.

ONS. Correct me if I’m wrong. I am happy to be informed, to be wrong, to have been mistaken since it aligns me a bit closer to what we call consensus reality.

Perhaps fatmountain could quantify exactly what he would be like to be doing so we can assess how many life years for other people’s mums/dads/grandparents etc are expendable to help him ‘live his life’. I feel we need a yardstick for his individual tragedy which makes all these other tragedies worthwhile.

Correct me if I’m wrong.

Well, one of those figures isn’t a complete year, is it.

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional – Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

this suggests that 2020 is >600,000

Perhaps fatmountain could quantify exactly what he would be like to be doing so we can assess how many life years for other people’s mums/dads/grandparents etc are expendable to help him ‘live his life’. I feel we need a yardstick for his individual tragedy which makes all these other tragedies worthwhile.

Emotive empty rhetoric designed to shame rather than engage with the questions raised in my last post.

Kelvin, I noticed, but it’s most of the year. Got any other explanations?

Google “uk deaths 2020”
First result: Link

@BaronVonP7 Have you read the article?

Its conclusion is:

VERDICT
False. The figures cited in this post are partially inaccurate and do not demonstrate that there were fewer deaths in 2020 than 2019, nor that the pandemic is fake. Age-standardised mortality rates in England are “statistically significantly higher than in all years between 2009 and 2019”, according to ONS. Figures registered by Dec. 5 show there were 43,987 more deaths between Jan. 1 and Nov. 30 in England than the five-year average and 1,981 more deaths in Wales.

Kelvin, I noticed, but it’s most of the year. Got any other explanations?

Yes it’s not a valid number to compare – download the data for 2020 from the ONS

https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc1130/fig1/datadownload.xlsx

Add up the 2020 columns for England and Wales, compare to the 5 year average and maxima then come back and find a recipe for humble pie.

Thanks Jam-bo, but the other stats are also from the same source. I can’t explain the difference.

Got any other explanations?

you only want to ‘understand the statistics’ if they fit your narrative. classic conspiracy theorist bullshit.

how about next time you get paid, you only get 95% of what you were expecting, its most of a paypacket eh.

Not sure what Fat Mountain is trying to prove, but wasn’t 2018 a particularly bad flu year?

That being so, the fact that 2020 with all it restrictions is higher indicates this is a nasty pandemic indeed.

Apologies if I’ve missed the point.

Have you read the article?

Yes.

fatmountain offered (I think) the figure of 541,589 for 2018.

Following the links in the article to the data, provided updated figures for 2020.

Number is >600, 000 for “Weekly provisional figures on deaths registered in England and Wales1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11” – figure is >600,000 regardless if you use 52 weeks or 53 weeks.

Thanks Jam-bo, but the other stats are also from the same source. I can’t explain the difference.

i can, quite easily.

the numbers you quoted on p606 and again on this page compared deaths in 2018 to deaths in 2020 up to 11 dec.

so you werent comparing like with like and when this was pointed out, countered with, ‘its close enough’

well, funnily enough it isnt, another 50,000 people died in that three weeks…

thepurist,

I have no problems with being humbled by reality. It tends to happen a lot. It’s better to be wrong about stuff rather than carry on in a delusion. I’m happy to admit that. Still, I argue my questions/points remain valid whether it’s a “excess” 100,000 deaths or not.

I can’t explain the difference.

Why not? One was a provisional figure with data available in early December, one is a provisional figure based on data available at the end of December. The final figure will be revised up higher still, once all deaths at the end of December are reported and included.

All you need to know… is that this pandemic is real, and with all the measures in place, has killed thousands upon thousands of people… yes extra deaths… without those measures we’d be looking at it killing about 1 in every 200 people. Thank god we avoided that… but why have we done as poorly as we have?

“another 50,000 people died in that three weeks…”

Did they really? All of covid-19?

Did they really? All of covid-19?

No, not all of covid-19.

Still, I argue my questions/points remain valid whether it’s a “excess” 100,000 deaths or not.

It is. Why do you think it is not? If you want to avoid “emotive” arguments, and just understand the stats… where does this idea that these aren’t excess deaths come from?

Still, I argue my questions/points remain valid whether it’s a “excess” 100,000 deaths or not.

OK, so back to my emotive rhetoric. How many excess deaths would it take before you would stop mewling about lockdowns? Bear in mind that the current 100,000 would be multiplied significantly in the absence of lockdowns.

Give us a figure of what is acceptable in population terms.

All you need to know, is that this pandemic is real, and with all the measures in place, has killed thousands upon thousands of people… without those measures we’d be looking at a it killing 1 in 200 people.

I didn’t say it wasn’t real and I’m questioning the long-term practicality of those measures. I’m questing how much you can stop life becasue of death. But we’re going in circles now so I’ll check out. I wish everyone the best of luck with handling this nightmare.

Perhaps fatmountain could quantify exactly what he would be like to be doing so we can assess how many life years for other people’s mums/dads/grandparents etc are expendable to help him ‘live his life’. I feel we need a yardstick for his individual tragedy which makes all these other tragedies worthwhile.

That doesn’t help. Were you clamouring for lockdowns two years ago when we had 50,000 excess deaths? It’s not black and white.

you only want to ‘understand the statistics’ if they fit your narrative. classic conspiracy theorist bullshit.

That doesn’t help either. It is better to explain than dismiss.

Fatmountain: At the end of the day we have 100,000 excess deaths and a government that has nothing to gain from lockdowns. The statistics beyond that are often confusing, inconsistent, contradictory and unhelpful, but the big picture is clear.

^^^

more conspiracy classics, get proven to be wrong. change the subject.

I’m questioning the long-term practicality of those measures.

Sounds fairy ’nuff.

I’m questing how much you can stop life becasue of death.

Sounds a tinsy bit Harold Shipman…

Bear in mind that the current 100,000 would be multiplied significantly in the absence of lockdowns.

What if we’d just locked down the elderly?

There’s a great Indy Sage video posted way back in this thread explaining why the “just lock down the elderly” would still result in a very high death rate, in the elderly and the wider community.

We are looping… and you keep prompting the loop chrispo. Why?

Bit late for ‘what ifs’, might have worked OK, but we’d have a load of 70-year-olds going ‘only 500 have died, give us our FREEDUUMMM’.

@kelvin

Got a link to that? I must warn you I’m fully prepared to view it and then ignore it if it doesn’t fit in my worldview. 🙂

I can’t find the Indy Sage video, which is a shame as it explained the issues very well, in a way that I could easily follow.

Here’s a much drier report from Sage covering it though: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-summary-of-sage-advice-on-segmentation-15-october-2020

Thanks – that all makes perfect sense.

Thanks Jam-bo, but the other stats are also from the same source. I can’t explain the difference.

If you don’t like those stats or they don’t fit within your narrative then im sure you’ll find what you need on Facebook.

Jesus Christ I can’t believe were still discussing this sort of shite

If you don’t like those stats or they don’t fit within your narrative then im sure you’ll find what you need on Facebook.

Jesus Christ I can’t believe were still discussing this sort of shite

The longer we have to live with restrictions, the more folk will question the value of them. There’s a legitimate discussion to be had. It must, though, be based on hard facts.

Jesus Christ I can’t believe were still discussing this sort of shite

A kinder response would be to post a little cut-and-paste list of useful links to simple and credible information that would help allay people’s fears, rather than exclude and ridicule them.

I still stick my head above the parapet from time to time and it still gets blown off every time, but some of the helpful responses have been, well, helpful.