If your of a nervous disposition, don’t look at this mornings news. House party’s, raves, packed beaches…

TBH some of the ‘packed’ beaches Aren’t ‘that’ packed and it’s the zoom lense clickbait type thing although the one with the helicopters didn’t look too smart.

It’s a tricksy position If you cry wolf over everything it’ll just be used as per the Cumings ‘it’s political defence‘.

(What was it 300 deaths Clocked up before we started lockdown And er now we’re clocking that a day and it’s fine to get rid of it)

And bearing in mind that the most important person in this government is the spin doctor and not the scientists 🙁

Ultimately – I don’t have a problem with the Gov* making the decisions and exercising their authority. That is what they are elected to do.

But they must then be accountable for them, not hide behind the advice (or the bit of advice that suits their narrative) while hiding the wider picture.

I’d have a lot more respect if they came out and said that there are competing rationale, but they’ve decided to do X instead of Y because of a, b and c…..and then be judged on that.

* I do have ‘a bit’ of an issue with the brainpower and honesty of those that make up the Gov, to be fair. I’m happier with the philosophy of it rather than the current embodiment……

(What was it 300 deaths Clocked up before we started lockdown And er now we’re clocking that a day and it’s fine to get rid of it)

The time between infection in death is about a month so it’s not a very good indicator of current infection levels. Keep an eye on new cases and ne hospital admissions as indicators of where we are no which is much beter than a month ago.

Be objective about where transmission has be shown to take place before getting critical of other people’s behaviour – confined spaces with people together for long periods. Beaches aren’t a problem but busses, trains and planes are. Wear a mask when you enter shops, busses, trains, work places, public services, flats, houses – anywhere you’ll meet other people that isn’t outdoors.

I’d have a lot more respect if they came out and said that there are competing rationale, but they’ve decided to do X instead of Y because of a, b and c…..and then be judged on that.

Tbh It may be my biased opinion but I don’t feel the fellow presenters were quite expecting Boris to come out with the ‘You can have BBQ’s‘ which sort of makes me wonder if a certain bit of this is made up on the spot as they were very quick to keep reiterating 2m distance and cleaning of the toilet etc.

(Could have been my interpretation but ya know go with your instincts)

I’d rather they put out public information tv add to show exactly how you should have a Covid safe BBQ As opposed to a you can have bbq statement.

People need guidelines and guidance, they used to do it crossing the road adds and the Charlie says 🙂

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52862440
On top of all the other official lockdown reductions starting tomorrow, they now have said the vulnerable people that have been shielded can also go out in England.

Boris is definitely not being steered by the science now, this is another decision makes no sense whatsoever at this time.

Next they will be telling us that the 2m social distancing is being reduced to 1m in the name of making high street shops “safely” opening, while 200+ are dying everyday. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52861993

(What was it 300 deaths Clocked up before we started lockdown And er now we’re clocking that a day and it’s fine to get rid of it)

The time between infection in death is about a month so it’s not a very good indicator of current infection levels. Keep an eye on new cases and ne hospital admissions as indicators of where we are no which is much beter than a month ago.

I’d nicked that from the ‘A different Bias’ YouTube bloke As I think he’s got a valid point for people who aren’t going to dig into It that deep but the point he was making was the same as yours.

One question you guys might be able to answer thats worrying me. I am 90% sure my missus had covid – very mild. I assume as we live in a small flat its highly likely I got some viral load but I never had any symptoms at all. So I am / was an asymptomatic carrier. How long are you an asymptomatic carrier? Does that only last for a week from infection or longer? Does anyone know?

Edukator – outside there is still a risk of transmission – its just that its lower as the bugs dissipate

I agree TJ, it’s all about not getting a minimum infective dose. I’m in a similar sitution to you, Madame had symptoms but I didn’t, she’s got a prescription for an antibody test so we’ll find out. Till then i’m assuming I might be a risk to others.

There are reports from both the US and France of asymptomatic people testing positve for live virus for months. read my last post on this thread with a link in it on the last page.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52840763

Could it be that asymptomatic transmission is now driving the infection…
Could the number of asymptomatic infections be way higher than previously thought?

On top of all the other official lockdown reductions starting tomorrow, they now have said the vulnerable people that have been shielded can also go out in England.

Support for shielders, such as food and medicine deliveries, will continue.

Some good news in there. In fact, with much of this, while rules are being relaxed in June, support is continuing well into the summer at least. Feel free to make your own steps towards normal behaviour in July if you want, after we’ve seen a couple of weeks more data and track/trace/isolate is hopefully actually in place. With this particular relaxation, there will he cut off people desperate to see someone… with the right mitigation, it makes sense to signal that they can.

In a big surprise to us all, new Sage member comes out saying Government not led by Science
https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status­/1266820479773532168

Fun fact: a long time ago I applied to do a PhD with Graham Medley, doing population modelling of Mongolian gazelles! Turned out the advert was out of date so the Mongolia trip was out, but we had a meeting anyway, and figured we could do something cool. Got as far as completing forms and stuff but then a lack of funding stopped it. So that’s three SAGE type people that I’ve had dealings with (one is my PhD-nephew).

the government can hold their hands up and say that if behaviour this weekend results in the virus hanging around at current levels for longer than you might think desirable, it’s not on them.

They can try but:

They all fought to become the government

They are in charge

They are responsible.

Leaders lead, they don’t check where the mob is going and then join in.

They’re absolutely clueless (or just making it up as they go along). Raab claimed earlier we’re moving from Lvl 4 to 3

At what point before 11pm last night did we hit alert level 1 pic.twitter.com/r7Dcw1Hrhy

— James Felton (@JimMFelton) May 31, 2020

Raab claimed earlier we’re moving from Lvl 4 to 3

He also clained that we HAVE a “world beating” tracking system, even though other countries like Germany had an advantage from expeience with previous pandemics. These halfwits are really not worth speaking to.

World beating track and trace system you say?,

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/30/boris-johnsons-test-and-tracing-system-britain-lockdown

Why I quit working on Boris Johnson's ‘world-beating' test-and-tracing system | Anonymous
"We’re not highly trained – we’ve been sitting around doing nothing. This programme is not fit to bring Britain out of lockdown" #JohnsonHasFailedTheNation https://t.co/VUhP4C5dAT

— The Prole Star (@TheProleStar) May 30, 2020

Well, we’ll have to see what happens with death rates over the next few weeks. Certainly from my POV, the ‘lockdown’ has been slackening significantly over the last couple of weeks and now many look like they couldn’t care less. I think the best we can hope for going forward is that behavioural changes and the closure of pubs and sports events keeps the R coefficient <1. I can’t say I have much faith in the technical competence of this government given the incoherent and mixed messages we’ve had recently. They have also been prepared to compromise their own guidelines and instructions to save Cummings which I find reprehensible and tells us all about their priorities.

I’d rather they put out public information tv add to show exactly how you should have a Covid safe BBQ As opposed to a you can have bbq statement.

I can’t remember if it was Thursday or Friday but Sky news has a “how to” article.

Anyway yes, we appear to be communicating level 3 but indicating level one.   This had all the professionalism of the Red Dwarf red alert sketch, e.g. I suspect they are in Westminster arguing about who should change the light bulb…

Andy Burnham just said test track and trace won’t be up and running in Manchester for at least two-weeks

It’s time for Starmer to start holding their feet to the fire

Meanwhile in Manchester I’ve just been to s Tesco to pick up my dad’s prescription (a huge list). Despite the sign on the door clearly urging only ‘one person per shop’, there were dozens of families, some of three generations in there milling about.

football, beer, and above all, gambling filled up the horizon of their minds. To keep them in control was not difficult…

George Orwell, 1984

That’s why I avoid Tesco; normally because it’s full of shirtless men in the summer but also because many who shop their lack the self-discipline to comply with covid rules.

The Sainsbury’s near me is doing a sterling job making people queue to get in and most people are acting sensibly when inside. Once a week I shop at the local (big) Asda for my parents and have noticed that in the last couple of weeks things have slackened off a lot with no control over entry any more, and as you say, large families treating it as a **** day out.

Our two local supermarkets are still sensible, though I was the only person wearing a face covering yesterday. It’s time these were made compulsory for all communal indoor areas.

…and above all, gambling filled up the horizon of their minds. To keep them in control was not difficult…

Thanks to the nation’s resolve, horseracing is back from Monday

Wonderful news for our wonderful sport

— Matt Hancock (@MattHancock) May 30, 2020

He is MP for Newmarket, after all.

No crowds though I think for the horse racing?

That’s why I avoid Tesco; normally because it’s full of shirtless men in the summer but also because many who shop their lack the self-discipline to comply with covid rules.

Absolutely, this was just after 11am today, it was almost indistinguishable from any normal day in there. It’s only the pharmacy I use at the Tesco, in & out as quickly as possible once every two months if everything listed on the prescription is ok (often isn’t). Sainsburys near us was well organised pretty much from week one of lockdown, Tesco & Asda weren’t. Then the Sainsburys started doing click & collect which is in some ways better than a home delivery – more slots available, no need to wait around at home for up to an hour, can leave some non-perishable stuff in the car boot to self-isolate etc. (everything else gets disinfected at the door).

Supermarkets are surely one of the main vectors for infection now.

Supermarkets are surely one of the main vectors for infection now.

Not now or at any time during the pandemic according to French and German studies. None of the forty odd post lock down clusters in France are linked to shopping, all are related to places people have spent long periods together indoors. The vast majority (me included) wear a mask when shopping, contact times are short, distancing pretty good = low risk.

It’s time for Starmer to start holding their feet to the fire

I know he’ll be accused of politicising it, but he needs to start making the government explain how they are justifying their actions, and using the death count against them. Otherwise he’ll be guilty of not doing so.

If only we could track outbreaks for a reliable plan going forwards like France

Could it be that asymptomatic transmission is now driving the infection

I think it always has done.

Yeah, I think France were citing opportunities for super-spreaders given ‘prolonged minglings’ like in university halls, pubs, planes, tightly packed sporting events, music venues, etc.

I think France were citing opportunities for super-spreaders given ‘prolonged minglings’ like in university halls, pubs, planes, tightly packed sporting events, music venues,

None of which are currently happening in the UK, which leaves supermarkets.

And public transport in major cities

That isn’t quite true. Public transport is still operating albeit less and many factories and businesses are still open. The lights wouldn’t be on and we wouldn’t be eating otherwise.

None of those is currently happening in France either, Scotroutes.

All of the identified clusters in France have UK equivalents. You don’t need transmission in supermarkets to explain the current level of UK transmision just contact in perfectly legal settings that don’t even break lockdown rules.

Transport: busses and trains are still operating which puts people in a confined space for the tiem of the journey. In France trains allow only one seat in two to be occupied and you have to wear a mask, and in the UK?

Abatoirs and meat packers: people working in close proximity in a cold confined environment.

Worker accomodation.

Indoor work places that are still open and key.

Old people’s hime and othe rcollective accomodation

Schools – even with restricte numbers

funerals even with limited numbers

etc.

I’ve still yet to go in a food superstore since 16th March iirc, so I’ve no idea how things are in compared to the Tesco Express I’ve visited at least once weekly since April, but the latter has become an absolute shambles in the last ~3 weeks in terms of staff and other customers coming way inside 1m of me.

I’d guess I have 3-5 people get within 2m of me on each 5-10min walk around the store.

I’d imagine it’s much worse than that in the superstores.

The only minor concellation is I think I’ve had it, albeit there seems to be a lot of uncertainty still about immunity.

I’d wager that hospitals and care homes are the most significant sites for transmission.

https://www.channel4.com/news/40000-excess-deaths-could-have-been-avoided-if-government-had-acted-responsibly-prof-sir-david-king?fbclid=IwAR1uqpt-T6dafJ83s3YiWH4BhHYdx7Gf9gGd-2UKc9varj_LpFgqvkbFnAA