Bit emotional that. Fireworks and applause echoing around

Had a tear in my eye when I see the whole street out not helped as I’m wrecked this week. Still I have beer now so all is good.

A numbers question – using the 25th March figures:

Total known cases = 9,529

Daily increase = 1,452

Recovered = 135

Total Deaths = 463

Just over 8,900 still ill? Assuming the recovered is a total figure – Gov.Uk dashboard doesn’t indicated it’s daily. How is the recovery figure changing over time?

There was a figure quoted last week about the number of unknown infected. I think it was around 4x the known infected figure. Was there ever anything more on that?

We popped out to have a clap, not knowing if we’d hear any others since the houses on our road are a bit spaced out. Was brilliant though – could hear loads of clapping from all over.

Thanks Drac and everyone else at the pointy end of this. Not just for this virus thing, for everything.

One of the estimated figures I’ve seen was simply multiplying the number of deaths by the estimated death rate. It was 1% IFR in the example I recall.

463 deaths, 460k infected.

Not really something to trust until there’s widespread testing.

Bit emotional that. Fireworks and applause echoing around

Clapping cheering and random improvised percussion ringing round the village up here – they’re thinking of you and the rest of the NHS Drac.

Not really something to trust until there’s widespread testing.

If the testing is mostly (solely?) in hospital at the moment – does that mean the vast majority of the 8,900 are within the NHS?

They would account what ever % the most serious cases number is?

Jenrick on Question Time – a child amongst adults.

I had no idea about the clapping thing and was a tad concerned when my neighbours came out all at once banging pans. If I’d have known the reason I would’ve joined in instead of barricading the entry points!

If the testing is mostly (solely?) in hospital at the moment – does that mean the vast majority of the 8,900 are within the NHS?

You can trust my numbers even less 😆

What’s a couple of extra zeros

Colleague has been off with fever, aches, cough, tight chest and loss of smell.

100% sure was never tested, and got no further than 111 advice to stay at home so I reckon those stats are hospital based only.

Yes their only hospital based numbers. Many more told to stay at home so no evidence how many of those actually had Covid. Evidence from China suggests only about 20% or so with non-admission tested positive.

Rusty Spanner – re jenrick; totally out of his depth, delivering platitudes, not solutions.

100% sure was never tested, and got no further than 111 advice to stay at home so I reckon those stats are hospital based only.

They’re not. If he rang 111 it’s counted our electric records have been updated with a Corvid 19 diagnosis to aid in recording them.

Lol funky!!!

So company directors no 80% of dividend for us poor souls….

Lancet dude laying into the government

Fabulous : Richard Horton of the Lancet @TheLancet torches Boris Johnson's Tory Government’s handling of #coronavirus as a “national scandal” #CoronaVillains#clapforNHS #bbcqt #COVID2019#ToryShambles pic.twitter.com/lwwmBnZXjD

— Jerry Hicks (@JerryHicksUnite) March 26, 2020

Latest update from John Hopkins is that US now has more confirmed cases than any other country; shit now getting very real over there.
That, combined with a clueless leader, is not a good mix.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/489760-us-now-leads-the-world-in-known-coronavirus-cases

Colleague has been off with fever, aches, cough, tight chest and loss of smell.

100% sure was never tested, and got no further than 111 advice to stay at home so I reckon those stats are hospital based only.

Friend of mine who ended up in hosp due to breathing difficulties, tested positive, and is now well on road to recovery says loss of taste and smell is happening to her too.

Lancet dude laying into the government

Listened to QT while cooking in the kitchen. He put in a good shift and gave the government the kicking it deserves. As an aside, QT should be done like it’s been done in the last few weeks in future – much more enjoyable without a rigged audience full of ****.

Agreed.

The US situation actually worries me, for it’s impact on the world economy generally, but also because I don’t trust the knob in charge not to do something crazy if the shit really starts hitting the fan over there.

What’s really weird is that his opinion poll ratings are now at highest ever!?!

America has more hospital beds per capita than any other country.

They really should be able to deal with this, scary that trump is constantly trying to wish it away

Id like to think this is the point where even his fans realise their emperor is butt-naked , but they wont

America has more hospital beds per capita than any other country.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds

USA is 32nd.

My posts about covid-19 in the US are based on my general interest in the states and/but much more importantly….one of my sons lives in upstate NY with his american wife and their 2 yr old son – my first grandchild.
Trump is so far out of his depth with a hollowed out fed system; since spanish flu, which originated in the US, every war – military, cyber, epidemiological – has been ‘fought’ by the US without it hitting their shores (9/11 excepted, obviously).
Now – something long predicted in general terms and, specifically, this specific time with plenty of warning – the shit is on their door-step.
At a time when they need leadership, they don’t have it.
I fear this will so destructive in and of the US.

Johns Hopkins now stating 532k confirmed cases at 1.26am Friday.
At this rate of growth, will be at least 600k by noon on Friday.
I’m sure the ‘leader of the free world’ (who he?) will step upto the mark.

Morning, another day in the rabbit hole, another day on planet you – take care, be kind.

What’s really weird is that his opinion poll ratings are now at highest ever!?!

I don’t think that’s the Donald’s doing, I think that’s a result of the position. Crisis = rally round the nation’s figurehead/uptick in patriotism

At least to start with.

It’s like a war, the fools cheer until the body bags start piling up.

France continues on its exponential upwards trend of both cases and deaths despite being on the 10th day of confinement. Each time there’s an update on how long this is going to last it’s longer.

Reading around the European press it’s becoiming clear to me why the graphs of some countries are much worse (steeper) than others, it’s the level of initial contamination:

Spain (Madrid) got a large initial dose due a mass of football fans traveling to Italy for a game when a lot of Italian fans were contageous and then Spanish fans traveling to games around Spain. Other countries such as France have had more of a drip, drip, drip exposure form business travelers and tourists.

After the initial contamination the evolution might have something to do with national habits such as hand shaking but to me it’s clear it’s the amount of people initially infected before the population realises what’s going on and reacts that sets the trend.

Once in motion it’s becoming clear from Italian, Spanish and French experience that stopping it takes longer than expected. There’s a reservoir of infected people that takes a long time to work through. The 3-6 day incubation period based on Chinese reports just has to be too low for the numbers of new cases to be calling the SAMU and hitting French hospitals 10 days into confinement, especailly as at least a week before that people were already avoiding close contact, handshakes and bises.

3-6 day incubation period based on Chinese reports just has to be too low

Not sure what you’re getting at here. The average time is 3-6 days. It’s already well known that the actual period is up to 10 days; hence the 14 day isolation if someone in your household shows symptoms.

The Italians shut down on 9/03/2020. Now have a look at their daily new cases graph:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

And explain to me where the new cases are coming from given that if there was already an infected person in the household 18 days ago they should have infected their cohabitants within 3-6 days on average (and up to 10) as you say and those they infected would become cases in 6-12 days onaverage (or up to 20) so how do you explain why new cases aren’t falling away quite quickly now? Unless the declared average incubation is too low, or the’s something else going on.

America has more hospital beds per capita than any other country.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds

USA is 32nd.

Sorry that’s ICU beds that they have most of per capita & what’s needed now

They arguably have best healthcare in the world…. For those at the top

Will they socialiae their healthcare tho ?

@Edukator

France continues on its exponential upwards trend of both cases and deaths despite being on the 10th day of confinement.

Check CoVID 19 Growth Rate

Look at “Western Europe, Confirmed Cases Per Million Inhabitants”.

France is rising, but slower, 10% daily now. It is slowing. Italy is only now in a similar place. The French lockdown was earlier in the infection. You are in a better place than Italy.

Spain is worse. Only just slowing now. The deaths are rising very quickly. I think they must have had so very many undetected cases that are now coming to light. They are headed for a big number at the end of this.

UK, I think will look more like France. Not entirely clear yet just from data, the numbers are too small and noisy.

And explain to me where the new cases are coming from

Incubation times I have read quoted up to two weeks. Then you have the same for the remainder of a household. Plus, lockdown is/was not Chinese, military style, barricaded into houses, right from the get go.

And, 50% (or whatever the figure is) are asymptomatic. Some are very mild, may not even be noticed as C19, might just think “a cold”.

More positive [1] news. Professor Adam Finn on R4 just now saying it’s highly likely that people who’ve had CV *do* get resistance and in the rare cases where people do get reinfected it’s it’s not serious. I know it’s been suspected all along but it’s nice to hear it.

And explain to me where the new cases are coming from given that if there was already an infected person in the household 18 days ago they should have infected their cohabitants within 3-6 days on average (and up to 10) as you say and those they infected would become cases in 6-12 days onaverage (or up to 20) so how do you explain why new cases aren’t falling away quite quickly now?

Lockdown has halted new infections in other countries so I guess the conclusion is that many Italians aren’t properly following the lockdown. I’d be *very* wary of concluding that lockdown doesn’t significantly reduce transmission.

Obvs I’m using the term ‘lockdown’ to mean ‘lockdown’ in the European sense, not the Chinese sense.

[1] Or negative news for those who see it that way.

Unless the declared average incubation is too low, or the’s something else going on.

Or quarantine is leaky, high population density housing, essential shopping still causing contact & spread, secret visits to your mistress etc

New cases only confirmed by testing so there could be a wider pool of infected out there , range of % asymptomatic is big-oxford study in news this week, away from the headline said that small changes to input assumptions give a big range of output (I’ve seen anything from 20-80%)

Until widespread random serum testing is done to find out % that has had it & asymptomatic , very hard to know

What’s really weird is that his opinion poll ratings are now at highest ever!?!

Bloke on R4 said it seems like he’s saying reassuring thing but accepting reality and *doing* the things that need to be done. I not following current affairs in the US at the moment, so I’ve no idea it that’s true, but it would certainly explain high opinion ratings.

In other news, Derbyshire Police are probably regretting using social media to appeal for help to locate a prisoner who has absconded from the open prison.

At the best of times, it brings out the frothing Daily Heil hang ’em and flog ’em brigade. To lose a prisoner when everyone else is in lock down 🤦

You don’t want to lockdown so hard that you stamp it right down. You just need to maintain the number of new cases down enough to get as close to the ICU capacity line as possible. If you restrict spread too much, it will pop up again as soon as you lift restrictions.

We need to significantly reduce transmission, but not completely remove it. This thing has to go through the population, just hopefully not all at once.

If you can delay cases into the summer, then by then we should know whether any combination of antivirals or other interventions can reduce mortality and morbidity (organ damage etc).

Supermarket opening times, this is more for illustration than taking any particular shop:

Key workers – first hour eg 08:00 to 09:00

Vulnerable / old – second hour 09:00 to 10:00

The Masses – 10:00 to close

We would seem to have – highest risk of exposure, highest risk of severe symptoms then the rest stacked. We’re also potentially mixing the people on the front line.

Anybody else thinking there needs to be less mixing and more separation? Extending key worker only periods and closing for a clean period in between each?

And explain to me where the new cases are coming from given that if there was already an infected person in the household 18 days ago they should have infected their cohabitants within 3-6 days on average

3 people in the house. 1 is infected they and the other 2 follow the guidance to try and stop it spreading. At day 7 of the infection no. 2 gets infected the symptoms don’t show for 3 days in their case, that’s 10 days. Numbers 3 doesn’t get infected until day 15 and now at day 18 is showing symptoms. Hence 3 weeks lock down for now.