The Guardian this morning had an article reporting in shocked (shocked!) tones that 1 in 6 Brits reckon they wouldn’t take a coronavirus vaccine if/ when it’s developed, and a further 1 in 6 aren’t sure. Being the Graun, they’re reporting it as standard anti-vaxx type stuff; but it seems cavalier to equate “vaccines are developed by the illuminati to control our minds” with the nagging concern generated by a basic understanding of medicine and the history of insufficiently tested treatments. I’m talking to medical friends (GP, pharma) who sound uncertain about wanting to give their kids a vaccine that’s been rushed out in under 12 months.

Sooo… a sense check here. Getting the vaccine is the only way out of this so of course we have to do it? Or vaccines normally take 2-10 years to develop properly, so the speed with which this is being developed (and the steps being missed in some of the drugs being developed) are a big worry?

It’s the latter points that concern me. Who knows what you’re taking on board that may only transpire a few years later? Another Thalidomide?

I’d just take the advice of my doctor, seeing as none of us really know what we are talking about. Weird idea I know.

I wouldn’t be concerned. All vaccines have fairly standard base components that are tried and tested, and are there for both delivery and potentiation (if needed). And then a deactivated part of the virus that is used to develop the immune response.

There will be nothing novel in the Covid 19 virus, other than the latter part.

Another Thalidomide?

Crikey, when did Djokovic start posting on here?

Yeah I’d take it.

To be honest, if the Gov. wanted to convince people to take it, they could spend millions of pounds on advertising, scientific studies and wheel out every expert they could find it would probably convince people who are sceptical about a new drug, but would only go to ‘prove’ to the anti-vaxx crowd it’s going to kill them.

They’d be better off offering ‘Covid Passports’ to everyone who had it and people would queue for hours for it.

They’d be better off offering ‘Covid Passports’ to everyone who had it and people would queue for hours for it.

Will they be blue?

The most pressing concern about a Covid jab is whether it works, to what degree and for how long. No vaccine is entirely risk-free, and there is a balancing of this against the potential benefits.

The Covid jab will be more of a herd decision than most – it’s not going to be given just to people at signficant risk of dying or becoming seriously ill from Covid, it’s going to be given to most people, the majority of whom will be young and healthy enough to be at a very low risk of those outcomes. So I guess it will come down to the prevalence of the ‘I’m Alright Jack’ attitude at the time.

FWIW, I think 5 out 6 accepting the vaccine would be a pretty good situation. I’d expect fewer than that to be vaccinated unless there is a bit of compulsion involved.

Not much in this world is zero risk, including doing nothing. But taking the vaccine/vaccines when we have one/them will be lower risk than not doing so.

It’s unfortunately human nature to not do something that’s seen as potentially risky, even when that’s the lowest risk option (“I didn’t do anything so if something bad happens that’s not my fault” kind of thinking). I’ve experienced this feeling personally when taking my kids for MMR jabs, in spite of knowing the research. Means public health messaging has to be very clear.

and the steps being missed in some of the drugs being developed

What steps are being missed and for which drugs?

There is a basic threshold of preclinical safety and efficacy data required for single-dose, first in human trials and that threshold increases as you move to multiple doses, larger populations and from the healthy to patients.

Vaccines are somewhat unique in that they are generally administered to prevent disease, therefore the risk:benefit ratio differs. There is an extremely low threshold for adverse events in vaccines because of this.

Should a vaccine ever be found for COVID-19, and it gains approval by the MHRA, I have confidence that it will have demonstrated comparable safety to any other licensed vaccine here in the UK.

I’d take it and have signed up for trials. By the time it gets to mass rollout, the risk will be very low – not non-zero but very low.

Facebook needs to stop letting people spread Anti Vax propaganda

Comparing it to thalidomide is just scaremongering.
Yes there could be some side effects for vaccines (there are in nearly all vaccines but at a very low level) but these will have been tested appropriately to gain approval. The consequence is too high based on the number of doses to be produced for them to skip stages in approval.
I will take one once it is approved.

Edit: considering both my current and future employers are massively involved in the production of the covid vaccines I believe the quality standards and cultures are such that the companies will ensure the controls are also in place.

I’ll be straight in for any new serum – Captain Stafford – The First Averager.

Would any vaccine be any different from the winter flu jab routinely offered to at risk groups (just adapted to provide resistance to this new virus)?

Thank you Tallpaul – some actual understanding of the vaccine (medicines) development process!

All countries have their own Medicines Licensing Agency (UK it is MHRA, USA it is the FDA), these bodies are there to make sure ANY medicines given to humans (and animals) are safe and efficacious (they work). PATIENT SAFETY IS THEIR MANTRA.
And that means if you cannot make it properly or to the same quality, the agency is not going to let us humans be given it.

Thalidomide – yes a lot of lessons were learnt and we now have extensive testing regimes in place before humans receive potential medicines so we understand their limitations, and who should and should not be given such medicines. And one form of Thalidomide is still being used today as a medicine.

Be interesting to see how long the vaccine lasts for. Could just be a few months meaning people will need 5 or 6 vaccines a years in which case would make sense for only those at highest risk to have it (as per annual flu vaccine)

vaccines have fairly standard base components

They really aren’t! Some of the new platforms being toted for COVID19 have never delivered a product. They do however allow a fast route to humans. Under promise and over deliver is way here. All the big names have said this.

I don’t believe in shortcuts in drug and vaccine development. It’s a numbers game when it comes to safety. I want a vaccine from a platform that has been in millions not thousands

Btw thalidomide had passed all available toxicology studies of the time. What it led to was a reform of those studies prior to approval (embryofetal study requirements). It is still an extremely valuable medicine for the right patients.

I’m 50, male and overweight. I’d have the jab.

If it meant me and the kids could hug my parents again, I’d chew my own foot off, frankly.

I’m 50, male and overweight. I’d have the jab.

If it meant me and the kids could hug my parents again, I’d chew my own foot off, frankly.

Lose some weight and you’ll be able to reach 😉

be interesting to see what type of vaccine they use.

Flu comes in two types: live attenuated which is the nasal spray and an inactivated one which is the intramuscular injection. Several neutralising antibodies for SARS-CoV-2 have been identified so they have to workout what is the best way to stimulate the immune response. This could be with the two types above or could be with a expressed subunit of the spike protein or a conjugate if the response is poor.

All these approaches do have their upsides and downsides along with finding out what adverse affects they produce.

The other issue as noted above is how long the immunity will last and will there be a memory affect.

Have warned my kids that I’ll be refusing a Covid vaccine and am prepared to go to prison for exercising my personal choice.

I’ll be refusing a Covid vaccine

seems like a poorly educated decision.

I expect they’ll do what they did with the Swine Flu one and include it in scented candles and incense for stealth vaccination.

Have warned my kids that I’ll be refusing a Covid vaccine and am prepared to go to prison for exercising my personal choice.

I knew you’d be one of those. Be sure to warn other families as well.

Yes there could be some side effects for vaccines (there are in nearly all vaccines but at a very low level) but these will have been tested appropriately to gain approval

Yeahno. Phase 1 trials have been skipped in a few of the vaccine candidates in the interests of speed. The Chinese government is now pushing a vaccine *candidate* (ie only just completed Phase 2 trials) onto its armed forces. The FDA issued “emergency approval” for use of hydroxychloroquine in March, and didn’t rescind that for 3 months.
And BoJo has variously stated (and essentially made policy) that handshaking is fine/ we must keep 2 metres apart and stay locked up/ we can stay 1 metre apart and can go to the pub/ it’s OK to drive to Barnard Castle when you have Covid-19 and can’t see/ face masks have no effect and shouldn’t be used/ have some effect and must be used.

Science has been subordinate to politics and policy throughout this; and a vaccine absolutely will be rushed out with a few corners cut here and there on the basis that 20 deaths per 100,000 (and 50 severe side-effects per 100,000) from a vaccine is better than 65 per 100,000 from Covid-19 (in the UK). And the lesson from thalidomiade isn’t just about testing, but also that sometimes the effects aren’t known until the next generation.

Vaccines are essential; and a covid-19 vaccine is the only way out of this mess (if one can be found that confers long-term immunity). I guess ultimately it should be still be an incredibly low risk. And after 3 months of being locked up at home away from people, it’s good to get some perspective from other folks on here!

Hopefully airlines/countries will refuse to fly/admit the refuzniks

Lose some weight and you’ll be able to reach

If I lost some weight I could also thump you for that! 😄😂

Skipping phase 1 doesn’t really reduce the safety data though. Phase 1 is routinely used to make sure if something goes wrong it doesn’t damage a large number of people (see the tegenero ****). Phase 2 being larger sample sizes will be more likely to capture less frequent side effects simply due to the numbers involved and phase 3 greater numbers still.
what the Chinese government are doing is entirely up to them but it is questionable.

Edit – thalidomide was down to crap testing, crap project management and a lack of knowledge on the difference in structure of the 2 forms.
Had they done animal tests and looks at the birth defects it likely would have had issues being approved and def wouldn’t have been allowed for pregnant women.
the only positive that came out of thalidomide was that it triggered modern gmp to be implemented

Have warned my kids that I’ll be refusing a Covid vaccine and am prepared to go to prison for exercising my personal choice.

lol.

No one’s sending you to prison for making a silly decision on this, even if that decision ends up harming other people (which it will, since there are enough people misguided enough to put a dent in the herd immunity %).

But maybe the rest of us will be granted more freedoms than you, like going abroad or to the cinema. Stick vs carrot.

You don’t just ‘skip’ Phase I trials… Which vaccines/companies are you referring to?

Edit – thalidomide was down to crap testing, crap project management and a lack of knowledge on the difference in structure of the 2 forms.

…thalidomide was also offered to my dear departed mum when she was pregnant with me. Technology in drug development, testing, trials, and safety has moved on in what I was going to call 50 years but is unfortunately an awful lot close to 60.

Have warned my kids that I’ll be refusing a Covid vaccine and am prepared to go to prison for exercising my personal choice.

Lol. The phrasing of that view manages to add a certain je ne sais pas (sic) to the message behind it.

i’m not entirely sure there will ever be a viable vaccine

the virus is getting, and will continue to get, weaker (viruses don’t really want to kill you; they don’t propagate if they do. They just want to make you pass it on).
So by the time any vaccine is viable, it won’t be needed

Also, vaccines in general aren’t very successful among the elder generations (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3739436/ – dated 2009). So any CV vaccine won’t be that successful against the people who need it most

As an example of the last coronavirus to cause a pandemic, read this. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_flu_pandemic

Give it a couple of years, this virus will just be a normal winter cold, similar to OC43 now. So a vaccine won’t be needed.

course, we’ve got to get to that stage, but any vaccine is not usable yet.

I’ll be refusing a Covid vaccine

whilst benefiting from the fact that the rest of us will take it. Just as those who won’t wear face coverings on public transport, exercising personal choice, will benefit from everyone else doing so. It’s antisocial in the most literal way.

So any CV vaccine won’t be that successful against the people who need it most

likewise face coverings aren’t very effective, but they do reduce spread. the only argument is about how much. Measures including vaccines don’t have to be 100% effective or 90%, any effectiveness will slow down spread alongside other measures, to help push R below 1 so it fizzles rather than mushrooms.

Johnx2 – it is definitely not a long time back since thalidomide. Shows how far regulation has come, but no one argues it couldn’t be better.
some of the more recent stuff shows that

Johnx2 – it is definitely not a long time back since thalidomide.

Isn’t it? The thalidomide generation is basically my age, born early 60s? Agreed there have been other bad things since then and I don’t dispute your main point that things can always be improved. But they have come a long way.

I’ll be refusing a Covid vaccine

They’ll just inject you in your sleep if you do.

That’s what they do.

@petec

the virus is getting, and will continue to get, weaker

got any sauce for that?

or is it ‘pub fact’?

the virus is getting, and will continue to get, weaker (viruses don’t really want to kill you; they don’t propagate if they do. They just want to make you pass it on)

not quite true and the problem with SARS-CoV-2 is that it hasn’t co-evolved with humans so its effects on us are different from the host animal.