Anyone that wants war is a nutcase. And anyone that supports the continuation of war beyond its purpose and use is also a bawbag.

Probably worth a £5 bet to the charity of your choice theres not a single poster in this thread that wants this war.

Said a western, middle class, keyboard warrior.

Absolutely. Hence why I think the only views that really matter in this are those in Ukraine and Russia.

I did read something today that suggested China invading Siberia is more likely than China invading Taiwan.

Or possibly not even invade.  Continue moving more more Chinese nationals there for work (as they have already been doing for years) and then hold a ‘referendum’ to become part of China.

Colin Thubron’s latest book gives interesting background to this – he travels along the Amur river which forms part of the border, visiting both sides along the way. (TLDR: the Russian side is sparsely populated, poor and run down.  And full of Chinese people blagging their way around bans on foreigners owning businesses. The Chinese side is chock full of people, skyscrapers and new cities. China believes it was diddled out of a large chunk of Siberia by the 1860 treaty, and wants it back one day.)  A really good read.

I think we discussed on here that China was starting to use Vladivostok as a port, with special permission to transit goods through that bit of Russia, but I don’t know how that’s panned out.

@piemonster I think he was talking about amongst  Ukrainians rather than us.

Yes @blokeuptheroad, I think you’re probably right.

Probably worth a £5 bet to the charity of your choice theres not a single poster in this thread that wants this war.

I don’t bet, but you’ll have to forgive me if I’m not fully convinced. As some posts may infer a contrary position, maybe a language/ misinterpretation issue, but sometimes I’m in doubt.

I think he was talking about amongst Ukrainians rather than us.

Bit of both to be honest. I think sometimes the revelling in targeting is in poor taste. But it’s subjective, so could be just me.

Another Russian Su-27 downed in the sea off Crimea. Pilot ejected.

Germany sending some significant kit

“In its latest supply, Berlin provided Ukraine with five Warthog repair and recovery armored vehicles, nine Warthog command armored vehicles, one Dachs armored engineer vehicle, ammunition for Leopard tanks, 18,000 155 mm artillery shells from industry and military stocks, 24,000 rounds of 40 mm ammunition, and 2,056 anti-tank weapons RGW 90 Matador.

Germany additionally sent Ukraine 14 Vector and 30 RQ-35 Heidrun reconnaissance drones, anti-drone sensors and jammers, six Wisent mine-clearing tanks, one Bergepanzer armored recovery vehicle, six Zetros tankers, a Satcom surveillance system, 70 GMG grenade launchers, nine mine plows, ponchos, camouflage nets, and two emergency power generators.

Berlin also updated the list of future military supplies, adding Patriot missiles and 20 Marder infantry fighting vehicles.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced a new aid package for Ukraine worth 500 million euros (roughly $540 million) earlier in March, including 10,000 artillery shells from the military stocks, 100 armored vehicles for infantry, and 100 logistical vehicles”.

Another Russian Su-27 downed in the sea off Crimea. Pilot ejected

honestly any poor russian navy or air force personnal operating in that area must be terrified.

any news on those f16s?

I think they were originally talking about ‘late spring’ for the first tranche, with the remainder arriving in dribs and drabs for the rest of this year and in to 2025.

Apart from 155mm shells, Ukraine really needs some more patriot systems, Russia seems to be able to launch glide bombs at will at the moment, it must be really hurting Ukraines front line. Those German storm shadows would really help too.

Some F16s loitering at altitude at max range could pick off the SU27s lobbing glide bombs with the right missiles.

Wow! On the subject of fast jets and taking this at face value, it is excellent news if it pans out.  Gripen is arguably much better suited to operating in Ukraine than F16s.

https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1773416713926606859?s=20

Sweden does not exclude the possibility of supplying its Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine, Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson said in an interview with the Kyiv Independent in Stockholm on March 28, adding that the “deliberations are ongoing.”

⚡️ Media: Czech-led initiative concludes deals for 1 million shells for Ukraine.

A Czech-led initiative had concluded contracts for 1 million artillery shells for Ukraine, with shipments expected already in April, the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera reported on March 28,… pic.twitter.com/t1TVzoKWPJ

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 28, 2024

Looks like Joe “Big Mac” Mcdonald has been sent over the top. Best of luck to him.

Wow! On the subject of fast jets and taking this at face value, it is excellent news if it pans out.  Gripen is arguably much better suited to operating in Ukraine than F16s.

Ukraine’s Mig 29s and Su-27Ps have in built auxiliary air intakes that won’t suck in divots or detritus kicked up by the front wheel when operating from a semi-prepared runway.  The F16 has a grinning great intake just in front of the steering wheel that requires NATO runways to be regularly, manually swept. Ukraine’s air force ground crews will need to be properly trained for this which will be a big change in doctrine.  The Gripen is designed to be dispersed, serviced by conscript crews and flown from semi-prepared runways.  It also has quite a formidable EW bag of tricks and can carry long range Meteor missiles https://hushkit.net/2023/09/05/the-fearsome-electronic-warfare-capabilities-of-the-saab-gripen-e/

I’ve no idea as to the availability of them, IIRC Brazil has ordered enough J-39s to keep the production line busy for a while, unless secondhand Hungarian, Czech, South African or Thai Gripens become available any time soon.

On recent form it wouldn’t surprise if the Czechs coughed up some!

300 Gripens have been built since 1996, approx 170 are in service today.

I was talking to my mate with the Ukrainian in-laws again last night….

My mate’s missus is from Lviv. She would strongly disagree. Her parents were over from Ukraine a year or so ago. They too, would disagree.

Some of her cousins have lost limbs, others have lost their lives.

And with all due respect, I would take the opinion of someone caught up in the conflict on their home soil over that of someone who fled and is watching from afar.

I’m very glad Tusk is now  in charge in Poland. He might be wrong in this (I hope he is) but Europe still needs to stop daydreaming. Especially as the US is no longer the dependable ally it once was.

War a real threat and Europe not ready, warns Poland’s Tusk

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68692195

I would take the opinion of someone caught up in the conflict on their home soil over that of someone who fled and is watching from afar.

the younger half of the family are back in Kiev. Only the older ones stayed in the UK.

Hence why I think the only views that really matter in this are those in Ukraine and Russia.

And those in Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Norway, Poland, Romania, Moldova… and on and on.

If Russia held Kyiv and Lviv now, which if Ukraine had received no help would have been very likely, then all those countries would be having to plan for when not if Russian aggression and coercion further impacted on on their own territories. The only people that believe this not to be the case are those that failed to accept that the risk of Russia invading Ukraine (again) was very real and present at every point since 2014 onwards.

Hi

The young Ukranian family from Kharkiv who stayed in our home for a year were always crystal clear that fighting the Russian invaders was the only option for their wider families and Ukrainians survival. I spoke with their parents who were still in Kharkiv and did not hear any counter view. They all hated the war – as anyone sane would. But they all understood Russia could never be trusted. I have seen terrible photos from field hospitals and countless videos of missiles/explosions.

This is just my experience of the Ukranian community in the uk.

Slava Ukraine

Interesting article on  Russian jet losses

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/28/the-russian-air-forces-old-su-27-fighters-had-a-lucky-war-until-this-week/

It will be interesting to watch how Ukraine develops when the war eventually ends. Hopefully having regained their territory but perhaps realistically without having done so, or at least not completely.

Reconstruction is obviously going to be a massive task and I hope all frozen Russian assets are used to the full towards this, but clearly that won’t be enough on its own. We can only hope the West is as generous with peacetime reconstruction as it has been with military aid.  I can’t see there being much trust or forgiveness towards their eastern neighbours for many generations to come.  I can see their armed forces, defence industry and national defence posture becoming world leading, out of absolute necessity

Hopefully they will take their place in the EU, prosper economically and gradually mend the scars.  Whilst that will probably cause seething resentment and jealousy in Russia, hopefully Ukraine and the rest of the world will be better prepared when they next take a pop. And hopefully the mauling they are taking now, will delay that prospect for a good few years.

Without some miraculous and frankly impossible liberal democratisation of Russia, I think that’s the best we can hope for.

I’m actually stunned that anyone thinks ‘negotiating’ with Russia and Ukraine seceding territory is a viable solution to this terrible war, all this will do is allow Russia to re-arm and go again in 10/20/30 years. Russia is a terrorist state.

We are at war with Russia whether you like it or not, and anything other than a defeat for Russia is just pushing full scale war with NATO down the road.. Should Russia gain any kind of victory in Ukraine, Putin will aim to prove that NATO article 5 (without the US) is defunct by means of false flag/proxy/hybrid wars and incursions in the Baltics after Ukraine.

Putin views the Western democracies in terminal decline, NATO defunct, and want to restore the USSR…giving Ukraine what it need to win NOW is the least worse solution to this awful war.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/denying-russia%E2%80%99s-only-strategy-success

And the notion that the only way the war can end… is yet another Russian propaganda exercise.

dumbbot
Free Member
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/denying-russia%E2%80%99s-only-strategy-success

And the notion that the only way the war can end… is yet another Russian propaganda exercise.

Long but good read, that. 👍

Those German storm shadows would really help too

There’s very little chance of that happening.

Chancellor Scholtz has been under pressure for more than six months and has refused to supply them because he believes that it’ll be an unacceptable escalation. Taurus is capable of destroying the Kerch bridge, which Storm Shadow and SCALP EG can’t without an enormous helping of luck

His cause hasn’t been helped by several weak arguments in support of his decision and a February vote in the Bundestag to send long-range weapons to Ukraine

It doesn’t help when former-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, who has taken several well paid positions in the Russian energy sector, backs him as he did on the 18th March https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-russia-altering-crimean-identity-amnesty/live-68599494# (read through to find that piece)

Russia is talking a lot more about “war” in Ukraine, having declared that context of the term illegal in 2022 https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/05/1117462

“We are in a state of war. Yes, it started out as a special military operation, but as soon as this group was formed, when the collective West became a participant in this on the side of Ukraine, it became a war for us,” Peskov told Arguments and Facts and “The Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate called Putin’s “special military operation” a holy war (Svyashennaya Voyna)” https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-russia-is-war-due-western-intervention-ukrainian-side-2024-03-22/ and https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-29-2024

Russian mobilisation following President Putin’s re-election was predicted in November by secretary of the national security and defence council of Ukraine, Oleksii Danilov. Those statements^^, including Dmitry Peskov’s, “I am convinced of that. And everyone should understand this, for their internal motivation” point to Danilov being correct and would tend to mitigate the issues that mobilisation caused in September 2022 with public opposition and emigration https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63036985

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s likely mobilisation numbers have been reduced.

In December the Armed Forces of Ukraine under former Commander-in-Chief, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, proposed mobilising 450,000-500,000 Ukrainians. The new C in C, Oleksandr Syrskyi, has “significantly reduced” that number, although he didn’t say what the target is https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kyivs-top-general-says-ukraine-needs-fewer-troops-than-expected-2024-03-29/

South Korea’s Defense Minister Shin Won-sik has said that NKorea has exported 7,000 containers of weapons to Russia since July.

On Tuesday Russia coincidentally vetoed the continuance of a UN committee that monitors NKorean sanctions that has been in place since 2009 https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/03/1148121

Russia is a terrorist state

State terrorism isn’t recognised internationally so war crimes, human-rights law and humanitarian crimes are the appropriate frameworks

Nor is state organised crime but…..

Fires in two factories producing electrical transformers have broken out today, one at EnergoTransBud, Uralmash, Yekaterinburg and the other at Elektroizolit, Khotkovo, nr Moscow

Seems too coincidental, but I’d expect Ukraine to attack the railways and power stations as well… we’ll see

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/fire-breaks-out-uralmash-factory-russias-yekaterinburg-2024-04-01/

Republicans are in for an interesting time in Republican-led Florida. The Supreme Court there has put the abortion ban in Florida up for amendment by voters in November

Will it swing the Presidential race? If nothing else it’ll mobilise voters who are against this Republican policy

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/florida-supreme-court-abortion-rights-ballot-measure-rcna142568

Tatarstan’s head Rustam Minnikhanov said on his Telegram channel that Russian manufacturing facilities there have been subject of a drone attack.

SM refers to an attack on a Shahed drone facility in Alabuga, which is a special economic zone, near to Yelabuga. I’m making the assumption for the time being that the different reports of that one are the same

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/several-people-injured-drone-attack-industrial-sites-russias-tatarstan-agencies-2024-04-02/

Manufacturing drones… https://www.kyivpost.com/post/24090

Tatarstan is an industrialised region with petrochemical plants and manufacturing including KamAZ trucks and Kazan Aviation, from where the first flight of the Tupolev Tu-160M supersonic bomber took place in 2022.

Russia has lost a Forpost drone over the Black Sea and its loss is claimed by Ukraine. This is an expensive surveillance drone, possibly filling in for Russian A50 planes, and is a copy of an Israeli Searcher UAV

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-ukraine-trade-drone-claims-over-black-sea-2024-04-01/

id assumed when they keep mentioning shahed drones they were actually being made by iran and shipped over.

They were initially, but Russia started building their own with Iran’s help last year.  They supposedly optimised production methods and introduced technical improvements to the drones too.