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  • Ukraine
  • Poopscoop
    Full Member

    catdras
    Free Member
    What happens if Ukraine develops nuclear weapons again?

    To my knowledge they were effectively left there when the USSR fell rather than Ukraine developing them indigenously.

    The lack the raw materials and assisted tech/knowledge I would imagine and no sane country is doing to gift them nukes or the tech/materials with a war ongoing.

    dakuan
    Free Member

    What happens if Ukraine develops nuclear weapons again? I would think that none of this would have happened in the first place if they had kept them.

    This is what is going through the minds of all the other smallish nations with naughty neighbours. I’d be more worried about that than Vlad getting grumpy about getting hoofed out of donbas.

    blokeuptheroad
    Full Member

    To my knowledge they were effectively left there when the USSR fell rather than Ukraine developing them indigenously.

    Then they handed them back to Russia as part of the Budapest memorandum – with UK, US and Russia providing security reassurances in return.  Guess how that went?

    The lack the raw materials and assisted tech/knowledge I would imagine and no sane country is doing to gift them nukes or the tech/materials with a war ongoing.

    I’m not so sure about that.  Ukraine is a technically advanced country with a large defence industry and other high tech sectors.  They also have a well developed civil nuclear power industry and have built several new nuclear power stations since independence from Russia, not just relying on ex Soviet ones.  I think they absolutely could develop more ‘basic’ nukes in short order if they wanted, although making them small enough to launch and developing ballistic delivery systems would be very challenging.  Putting one in a truck or on a maritime drone though? Possible I reckon, but fear of escalation and antagonising western allies would probably stay their hands.  I would bet my pension on the fact that they at least have a very well developed contingency plan to kick start such a project quickly if they wanted to.

    oldmanmtb2
    Free Member

    Much of the above is at best a moot point, Ukraine isn’t winning, its simply being eroded by Russia. The Russians understand that they are a combination of a sponge (able to soak up damage and loss that few if any modern countries would be prepared to) secondly they have little regard to human life and this is understood and accepted by many Russians.  The only major military campaign that failed for Russia was Afganistan and that was partly to do with geo politics and lack of cash.  Putin is not running out of cash or infantry and is not bothered by geo politics. I doubt that the west can fuel Ukraine sufficiently to rout the Russians. The only possible route is to accept loss of Ukrainian territory then get whats left of Ukraine into NATO asap.

    dyna-ti
    Full Member

    Ukraine isn’t winning, its simply being eroded by Russia. The Russians understand that they are a combination of a sponge (able to soak up damage and loss that few if any modern countries would be prepared to) secondly they have little regard to human life and this is understood and accepted by many Russians.

    I clicked on this vid the other night. It kind of shows the lengths a country like Russia is willing to go in terms of loss of their soldiers.

    If Putin is like any of the other war leaders in Russia, Russia will keep going until the Ukrainian military has nobody left to fight or secure the front lines effectively, no matter what the cost in Russian lives.

    blokeuptheroad
    Full Member

    Putin is not running out of cash

    The Russian economy is smaller than the UK’s, Germany, France etc. they don’t have limitless cash to wage a never ending war.

    or infantry

    Russia has a demographic crisis, their population is shrinking and ageing fast.  The death rate has exceeded the birth rate every year bar a handful since the late 1990s.  Over a million fighting aged males fled the country since the start of the war and depending on who you believe, up to half a million have died in the war so far – they ‘only’ lost 33,000 in Afghanistan and that was over a decade and the public uproar over those losses partially led to the fall of the USSR.

    They may have a greater tolerance for battle casualties than other countries, but it isn’t limitless. I don’t think comparisons with Soviet losses in WW2 have any direct bearing.  The USSR population was massively in excess of modern Russia’s and they were genuinely fighting an existential war.  The country was in real danger of ceasing to exist and the population knew that. It wasn’t a cross border land grab like today.

    piemonster
    Full Member

    Russias population today is 144.5m, as opposed to an estimate of 194m for the Soviet Union in 1940.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1260522/soviet-and-russian-population-1940-1950/

    Average age is estimated at 40.68, vs 23.3, not something unique to Russia. Varies a bit depending on your sauce.

    Some of what gets floated about this, is part of the information war as far as I can tell.

    Why the **** some countries can’t just get on with being older, go for a walk or do some gardening FFS.

    PJM1974
    Free Member

    seems apposite

    Thank you Kimbers, that makes a great deal of sense in helping to understand what Russia is doing and why.

    What happens if Ukraine develops nuclear weapons again?

    That’s quite the “if”, IIRC Ukraine didn’t develop it’s own nuclear arsenal or the means to deliver it, Ukraine inherited nuclear weapons from the breakup of the Soviet Union.

    Don’t disagree with much of that, but if the west is going to leverage it’s undoubted economic advantage, it’s going to have to share out that 63 trillion a lot more fairly than how it is currently distributed. Does anyone see any probability of that happening?

    I think that it’s pretty clear that Putin’s ambitions don’t stop at Ukraine and the UK & allies understand what’s potentially at stake – https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/02/27/russia-ukraine-nato-europe-war-scenarios-baltics-poland-suwalki-gap/

    The nightmare scenario is that an emboldened Putin (or his successor) fresh from taking Ukraine decides to march into Poland, the Baltics, Finland and Moldova.

    dantsw13
    Full Member

    Much of the soviet arms industry was in Ukraine, so they may well have the know how.

    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    The nightmare scenario…

    The other one is that China is watching Ukraine very closely. It’s an appalling irony that the MAGA idiots might eventually be committing America into a n incredibly costly/dangerous war in every sense of the word with China over Taiwan.

    If Putin shows the west is fragmenting, it would be a brave person that bets against a Chinese invasion of the island within the next 10 years.

    If China does indeed do that and the West just looks on then the whole of South East Asia is likely not in for a great few decades.

    Ukraine was a rare chance for Western democracies to show that they are not inherently weak and short sighted compared to dictatorships. It seems we are now squandering that early optimism.

    It seems we are now squandering that early optimism

    Too concerned with infighting and domestic shithousery (not actual worthwhile politics, ie Rwanda) instead of prioritising those commitments made at the outset.

    blokeuptheroad
    Full Member

    I’ve just watched the BBC2 documentary “Ukraine: Enemy in the Woods”.  It’s pretty full on and sobering stuff.  It does a good job of bringing home the toll the fighting is taking on the Ukrainian troops, but also their absolute conviction and determination to defend their homeland. **** Putin, it’s all so unnecessary.

    That documentary and a vast amount of other footage is getting digested as we speak to inform tactics for our own troops. As well as helping the Ukrainians fine tune their own TTP’s, problem is they lack the manpower to have their own organic training teams, it can cause a bizarre situation where the troops conducting the training sometimes have less combat experience than the trainees.

    But the training is about how to operate as pairs all the way up to platoon level tactics, the UKR troops are absolutely throwing themselves at the training, my mates often comment ‘if only all trainees were this keen and committed’.

    But yeah, **** Putin.

    blokeuptheroad
    Full Member

    The UK teams training these guys must get huge satisfaction from doing such a worthwhile job.  Respect to your mates RM.

    I’m incredibly professionally (and personally) envious! Never had a tasking like that, one so very worthwhile, defo something for all involved to be proud of. And an amazing opportunity to learn from allies about an old foe and build relationships for the future.

    Just hope the coming instability in various elections doesn’t **** up the positive momentum, it feels to me like a very fragile arrangement.

    dantsw13
    Full Member

    I’m fairly certain that the election here will make no difference.

    blokeuptheroad
    Full Member

    I’m fairly certain that the election here will make no difference.

    Agreed, but the one in the US definitely will. Fingers, toes and everything else crossed that Putin’s Orange shit-gibbon fanboi doesn’t get in!

    I’m fairly certain that the election here will make no difference.

    Let’s hope, eh? When it comes to the **** buffoons in our house and the Senate, I’m not so open to optimism.

    dyna-ti
    Full Member

    Agreed, but the one in the US definitely will. Fingers, toes and everything else crossed that Putin’s Orange shit-gibbon fanboi doesn’t get in!

    Keep in mind though that we have a very right wing press, who aren’t exactly telling the truth about J.Biden’s popularity. There is far more support than is being portrayed.

    And it looks like D.Trump will be facing a criminal court case before the election, and imprisonment(quite likely) has been said will put off a lot of republican voters.

    hatter
    Full Member

    It will also be the first Presidential election since Trump’s Supreme Court struck down Roe Vs Wade.

    I strongly suspect that a lot of women in otherwise very Republican towns  will be quietly voting Blue this November.

    I think Joe will take it but it will be depressingly, nail bitingly close with all sorts of bad actors trying to put their thumb on the scale for Trump.

    And Trump will say he won anyway and there will be violence from his supporters as he desperately tries to stay out of prison.

    nickc
    Full Member

     it would be a brave person that bets against a Chinese invasion of the island within the next 10 years.

    I’d take that bet. I don’t think China is capable of invading Taiwan, sorry correction, I think it can get to Taiwan, and land troops on the island. Win? That’s a whole different thing. I think China is looking at how ‘well’ Russia is doing, and has quietly put away their plans.

    blokeuptheroad
    Full Member

    I think it can get to Taiwan, and land troops on the island. Win? That’s a whole different thing.

    It’s been wargamed lots, and that’s essentially the outcome.  Taiwan remained autonomous but with huge loss of life all round.  As with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – no real ‘winners’.  Hopefully the CCP leadership will have come to a similar conclusion.

    “CSIS developed a wargame for a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan and ran it 24 times. In most scenarios, the United States/Taiwan/Japan defeated a conventional amphibious invasion by China and maintained an autonomous Taiwan. However, this defense came at high cost. The United States and its allies lost dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and tens of thousands of servicemembers. Taiwan saw its economy devastated. Further, the high losses damaged the U.S. global position for many years. China also lost heavily, and failure to occupy Taiwan might destabilize Chinese Communist Party rule”.

    faustus
    Full Member

    Also, the recent large scale military corruption uncovered (but covered up as much as possible by Chinese leadership), has set back any plans they may have had, as well as their capability to do so.

    BruceWee
    Full Member

    I did read something today that suggested China invading Siberia is more likely than China invading Taiwan.

    Or possibly not even invade.  Continue moving more more Chinese nationals there for work (as they have already been doing for years) and then hold a ‘referendum’ to become part of China.

    hatter
    Full Member

    I did read something today that suggested China invading Siberia is more likely than China invading Taiwan.

    I agree, especially if Russia are sent packing in Ukraine, and the West’s support of Taiwan holds strong.

    Russia doesn’t have many people per KM2 but it does have massive natural resources there.  China has people but needs space and resources, what’s more Siberia is RIGHT THERE. A weakened and diplomatically isolated Russia isn’t exactly going to have other nations rush to aid it, they’ve thoroughly burnt those bridges.

    It largely depends on whether China thinks they manage the nuclear issue as Russian doctrine would see this a justification for the use of strategic weapons.

    zippykona
    Full Member

    The Russians sold Alaska when strapped for cash.

    rickmeister
    Full Member

    The nightmare scenario is that an emboldened Putin (or his successor) fresh from taking Ukraine decides to march into Poland, the Baltics, Finland and Moldova.

    This comes around a fair bit from politicians regularly… But for me the follow up questions are:

    Given the rate of depletion, with what in terms of kit and troops, seeing we are on the way to 500k dead or incapacitated.

    When… Just roll straight on through or a few years break then replenish…

    Lukashenko talking about the Sulwaki gap again and a corridor to Koningsburg…. It’s not a big distance at all….

    dazh
    Full Member

    I think that it’s pretty clear that Putin’s ambitions don’t stop at Ukraine

    Is there actually any evidence that Putin intends to attack a NATO or EU country? I note he’s again today said in the starkest terms that he has no intention of doing so. Obviously his word doesn’t really count for much, but that can’t be the only reason for western paranoia about his supposed ‘plans’ to invade Poland et al. Who knows, maybe he will just stop at Ukraine, or more likely the Donbas? Seems to me there’s a contradiction in that everyone says the Russian military is too weak to take the whole of Ukraine (that much is evident), but strong enough to take over Poland, Finlad and the Baltics? It doesn’t make a lot of sense.

    nickc
    Full Member

    Is there actually any evidence that Putin intends to attack a NATO or EU country?

    I think the Russia strategy has been one of ambiguity. Back in 2013 Gen Gerasimov launched a doctrine that used  “widespread use of political, economic, informational, humanitarian, and other non-military matters … Overt use of force, often under the guise of peacekeeping and crisis management, occurs only at a certain stage, primarily to achieve definitive success in the conflict.” 

    I think Russia feels like it should be able to act in any way it feels at any point it feels. Does Putin intend to invade Poland or Finland? Right now, probably not, but that shouldn’t really suggest that they won’t at some point in the future if Putin thinks it will be advantageous to do so.

    Who knows, maybe he will just stop at Ukraine, or more likely the Donbas?

    Well according to Russia; Donetsk and Luhansk are now independent counties so I guess launching attack on the rest of Ukraine from them is just being neighbourly?

    Keva
    Free Member

    No he won’t touch Nato but if he succeeds in Ukraine he’ll definitely set his sights on Belarus, although he’s pretty much got that one anyway, then there’s Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbajan.  After that little lot he’ll be looking to central Asia and the ‘Stans.

    He wants as much of the former USSR back as is possible.

    dazh
    Full Member

    He wants as much of the former USSR back as is possible.

    Does anyone in the West care much about the likes of Georgia and Azerbaijan? Probably not, certainly not enough to be going to war over it. If the European states were secured I reckon the west would probably be content with that ultimately. I was talking to my mate with the Ukrainian in-laws again last night and he told me they’re all of the opinion that partition is required with the west of Ukraine joining the EU but not NATO, and the Donbas becoming a satellite state of Russia. That seems to me to be the most likely of outcomes.

    ElShalimo
    Full Member

    Erm, aren’t Georgia applying for EU membership?  A lot of oil and gas comes from Azerbaijan, so yeah western Govts do care.

    I was talking to my mate with the Ukrainian in-laws again last night – how do you know that they’re not just the equivalent of GB News vox pops?

    dazh
    Full Member

    how do you know that they’re not just the equivalent of GB News vox pops?

    I don’t but I’m more interested to hear the views of actual real Ukrainians than I am a bunch of western middle class keyboard warriors. 😀

    so yeah western Govts do care.

    Not saying they don’t care, just probably not enough to go to war over it. Think if you asked most random people in the street whether Georgia represents a ‘Hitler invading Poland’ moment they’d think you were mad.

    I don’t but I’m more interested to hear the views of actual real Ukrainians than I am a bunch of western middle class keyboard warriors. 😀  views that align with my own beliefs and opinions.

    Ftfy.

    dazh
    Full Member

    views that align with my own beliefs and opinions.

    The only belief or opinion I have about Ukraine is that the people who live there can return to something like normal life as soon as possible. My mate’s family seem to agree. Everyone on here seems to think the Ukrainian people are fully behind the war for as long as it takes. From what I’ve heard it’s not as simple as that.

    From what I’ve heard it’s not as simple as that.

    There’s a lot of opinion in this thread being cast as fact. Anyone that thinks Ukraine to a person is 100% behind the war is a bawbag.

    Of course they won’t be, they’re the same as any nation made up of a complex spectrum of views & beliefs what I’d argue is that the majority do want Russia the **** out and life to return to something resembling normal.

    Anyone that wants war is a nutcase. And anyone that supports the continuation of war beyond its purpose and use is also a bawbag.

    kilo
    Full Member

    a bunch of western middle class keyboard warriors. 😀

    Said a western, middle class, keyboard warrior.

    nickc
    Full Member

    That seems to me to be the most likely of outcomes.

    I think personally that the “divided Ukraine” model is largely driven by Russian propaganda/position (see the Gerasimov Doctrine) – It’s certainly the outcome that Russia would welcome, which for that alone should be viewed with suspicion. This is the same myth that told the world that the Russian invasion of Crimea and Donbas in 2014 was locally-led, when if was in fact Putin’s plan all along (which he admitted to later on).

    I think the only long term solution would be for Russia to leave Ukraine back to Russian borders, and sign international treaties banning it from provoking its neighbours.

    blokeuptheroad
    Full Member

    and sign international treaties banning it from provoking its neighbours.

    Unfortunately Russian signatures on international treaties, especially peace treaties have proved to be utterly worthless and meaningless.

    piemonster
    Full Member

    Just posting this again as it’s both quantitative and qualitative research into Ukrainian opinions that goes well beyond ridiculously small sample sizes. Must have been missed the last time round ……..

    https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=news

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